Stunning increase in Bay Area 'super commuters' in the last decade amid housing crisis
By Michelle Robertson, SFGATE
Updated 11:58 am, Wednesday, April 25, 2018
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Photo: Paul Chinn, The Chronicle
Gallery: The share of super commuters in major California cities
Data courtesy of Apartment List
Gallery: The share of super commuters in major California cities
Data courtesy of Apartment List
Photo: Paul Chinn, The Chronicle
San Francisco
# of super commuters: 104,480
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 112.7%
San Francisco
# of super commuters: 104,480
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 112.7%
Photo: Gabrielle Lurie / The Chronicle
San Jose
# of super commuters: 24,260
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 112.7%
San Jose
# of super commuters: 24,260
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 112.7%
Stockton
# of super commuters: 28,441
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 44.7%
Stockton
# of super commuters: 28,441
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 44.7%
Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Sacramento
# of super commuters: 33,518
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 40.9%
Sacramento
# of super commuters: 33,518
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 40.9%
Photo: Max Whittaker/Prime, Special To The Chronicle
Fresno
# of super commuters: 7,904
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 13.3%
Fresno
# of super commuters: 7,904
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 13.3%
Photo: Gosia Wozniacka, Associated Press
Bakersfield
# of super commuters: 7,727
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: -2.3%
Bakersfield
# of super commuters: 7,727
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: -2.3%
Photo: CASEY CHRISTIE
Los Angeles
# of super commuters: 227,009
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 28.3%
Los Angeles
# of super commuters: 227,009
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 28.3%
Photo: Nick Ut, Associated Press
Oxnard
# of super commuters: 10,462
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: -10.1%
Oxnard
# of super commuters: 10,462
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: -10.1%
Photo: Kyle Sparks, Getty Images
Riverside
# of super commuters: 127,156
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 14.3%
Riverside
# of super commuters: 127,156
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 14.3%
Photo: David Liu, Getty Images
San Diego
# of super commuters: 32,864
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 8.3%
San Diego
# of super commuters: 32,864
Percent increase in super commuters from 2005-2016: 8.3%
Photo: Ron And Patty Thomas Photography, Getty Images
GALLERY: Bay Area residents' biggest gripes with the daily commute
GALLERY: Bay Area residents' biggest gripes with the daily commute
Photo: Santiago Mejia, The Chronicle
Lesley Andrews, 34, Santa Clara:
"The unpredictability of it. Never know if it’s going to take 45 minutes or nearly two hours."
Lesley Andrews, 34, Santa Clara:
"The unpredictability of it. Never know if it’s going to take 45 minutes or nearly two hours."
Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle
Richard Brown, 30, Stockton:
"Inconsistent schedules."
Richard Brown, 30, Stockton:
"Inconsistent schedules."
Photo: Michael Short, Special To The Chronicle
Karyn Luke, 39, San Jose:
"Knowing that I live and work in the same political district within San Jose and it takes so long to get to work."
Karyn Luke, 39, San Jose:
"Knowing that I live and work in the same political district within San Jose and it takes so long to get to work."
Photo: Billy Calzada
Tara Devlin, 33, Richmond:
"Expensive Lyft rides to and from the Caltrain station."
Tara Devlin, 33, Richmond:
"Expensive Lyft rides to and from the Caltrain station."
Photo: Michael Short, Special To The Chronicle
Michael McCormick, 50, San Francisco:
"BART delays."
Michael McCormick, 50, San Francisco:
"BART delays."
Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle
Chris Walton, 61, San Bruno:
"Empty buses and single drivers in the commute lanes."
Chris Walton, 61, San Bruno:
"Empty buses and single drivers in the commute lanes."
Photo: Paul Chinn, The Chronicle
Ruth Meridjen, 28, Concord:
"Loud people (people playing music, talking on the phone), BART performers."
Ruth Meridjen, 28, Concord:
"Loud people (people playing music, talking on the phone), BART performers."
Photo: Raphael Kluzniok, The Chronicle
Noelle Germone, 30, San Francisco:
"Packed BART trains in the morning."
Noelle Germone, 30, San Francisco:
"Packed BART trains in the morning."
Photo: Leah Millis Leah Millis, The Chronicle
Mike Magbaleta, 51, New Jersey (commutes to SF twice/week):
"Waiting on platforms or on BART or Muni due to medical emergencies, power outages or switching problems."
Mike Magbaleta, 51, New Jersey (commutes to SF twice/week):
"Waiting on platforms or on BART or Muni due to medical emergencies, power outages or switching problems."
Photo: Paul Chinn / The Chronicle
Nerissa de Jesus, 52, Hercules:
"Sitting in traffic."
Nerissa de Jesus, 52, Hercules:
"Sitting in traffic."
Photo: Michael Maloney, SFC
Susan Rowan, 54, Vacaville:
"When traffic comes to a complete stop for no apparent reason."
Susan Rowan, 54, Vacaville:
"When traffic comes to a complete stop for no apparent reason."
Photo: Lightvision, LLC / Getty Images
Tammy Powers, 51, Treasure Island:
"Not being able to ride my bicycle from T.I. into [downtown San Francisco]."
Tammy Powers, 51, Treasure Island:
"Not being able to ride my bicycle from T.I. into [downtown San Francisco]."
Photo: Karl Nielsen, Special To The Chronicle
Amy Douglas, 42, Petaluma:
"Crazy drivers."
Amy Douglas, 42, Petaluma:
"Crazy drivers."
Photo: Paul Chinn, The Chronicle
Meghan Pluimer, 38, San Leandro:
"Inching along 580 and watching the estimated time of arrival get later and later every morning."
Meghan Pluimer, 38, San Leandro:
"Inching along 580 and watching the estimated time of arrival get later and later every morning."
Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle
Nick Dalisay, 39, San Leandro:
"Cheaters in the HOV lanes heading towards the Bay Bridge toll plaza that slow everyone down, getting out of the lane last minute, before the toll plaza."
Nick Dalisay, 39, San Leandro:
"Cheaters in the HOV lanes heading towards the Bay Bridge toll plaza that slow everyone down, getting out of the lane last minute, before the toll plaza."
Photo: Santiago Mejia, The Chronicle
Sean Aung, 29, San Francisco:
"Too many [inconsistent] Muni trains – like 5 double-car N trains then only a single K train on the outbound side."
Sean Aung, 29, San Francisco:
"Too many [inconsistent] Muni trains – like 5 double-car N trains then only a single K train on the outbound side."
Photo: Amy Osborne, Special To The Chronicle
Kim Brescia, 33, Oakland:
"No carpool lane heading eastbound in the afternoon/evening."
Kim Brescia, 33, Oakland:
"No carpool lane heading eastbound in the afternoon/evening."
Photo: Paul Chinn, The Chronicle
John Kuo, 53, Oakland:
"Unwashed people on BART."
John Kuo, 53, Oakland:
"Unwashed people on BART."
Photo: Connor Radnovich, The Chronicle
Traffic is seen on Highway 101 in San Francisco, California, on Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017.
Traffic is seen on Highway 101 in San Francisco, California, on Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017.
Photo: Gabrielle Lurie / The Chronicle
Stunning increase in Bay Area 'super commuters' in the last decade amid housing crisis
Whether by car, bus, train or plane, more than 100,000 San Francisco residents spend at least 90 minutes commuting to work each day, a new study finds. The Bay Area housing affordability crisis is likely to blame – and it's pushing up commute times across Northern California cities.
A decade ago, the city's share of "super commuters" — those with daily commute times over 90 minutes — was considerably lower. The population of super commuters in the city grew by 112.7 percent between 2005 and 2016, according to a study of U.S. Census data compiled by Apartment List.
Outside San Francisco, the share of Northern California super commuters is even higher. In Stockton, 80 miles east of San Francisco, 10 percent of the city's commuters travel more than 90 minutes to get to work.
According to the study, Stockton has the highest share of super commuters of any other major U.S. metro.
Modesto and Riverside in Southern California follow Stockton in the Apartment List ranking; of all commuters in both cities, 7.3 percent are considered super commuters. San Francisco ranked No. 6, with a 4.8 percent share.
A 90-minute trek to work has not always been the regional standard. All the Northern California cities Apartment List surveyed showed massive increases in the share of their residents considered "super commuters."
Stockton, San Jose, Fresno and Sacramento all saw spikes in super commuting since 2005, by 44.7 percent, 96.8 percent, 13.3 percent and 40.9 percent respectively.
While the study does not specify where the super commuters are going, one can easily speculate that they're traveling to the Bay Area, where employment opportunities are plentiful and affordable homes sparse.
This cocktail — ample jobs and limited housing — gives rise to super commuting, most experts agree.
The phenomenon disproportionately affects lower-income people across the nation, but especially in tech-dominant cities like San Francisco and Seattle. A 2015 Zillow study found lower-income workers in San Francisco typically have longer commutes than higher-income workers. The trend arose over the last 10 years and "indicates a rapid deterioration in housing affordability for low-income workers" near the city center.
People aren't just moving to the suburbs of San Francisco — they're moving out of the Bay Area altogether, to cities with more affordable housing that are still reasonably close to the employment hub.
In recent years, researchers have begun noticing an odd trend in California migration patterns: The populations of inland counties are growing faster than that of urban coastal counties.
Phuong Nguyen, a research specialist at the California Department of Finance, began noticing the influx of Californians to inland regions, like San Joaquin and Sacramento, around 2014.
"We were surprised at that," Nguyen said. California's coastal regions have historically drawn in-state migrants who leave their provincial hometowns in search of employment opportunity and urban environments.
The Department of Finance continued tracking the data into 2016 and 2017 and discovered the growth of California regions located further from the Pacific Ocean persisted. Nguyen expects the trend to continue in coming years.
It's a development that runs counter to the long-held narrative of small-town folks picking up and moving to their state's hubs of culture and commerce. Californians are still doing that – San Francisco's population grew just under a percentage point in 2017, per new Department of Finance data – but they may not like what they're finding.
Long commutes create problems for everyone – even those who live reasonably close to their offices. The San Francisco-Bay Area has one of the nastiest commutes in the country, according to a 2017 study by INRIX.
The study estimated that idling in traffic cost individual drivers $2,250 and San Francisco $10.6 billion in 2017. (INRIX found these figure by calculating the direct and indirect costs from the traffic jams: "Direct costs relate to the value of fuel and time wasted, and indirect costs refer to freight and business fees from company vehicles idling in traffic, which are passed on to households through higher prices.")
Fed up with the startling condition of Bay Area roads, some people are deciding to leave the region altogether. A 2017 poll by the Bay Area Council found 40 percent of current Bay Area residents are considering leaving in the next few years, with the region's housing woes, cost of living and traffic cited as the predominant factors inciting residents' discontent.
Read SFGATE's full coverage of the Bay Area exodus here.
Michelle Robertson is an SFGATE staff writer. Email her at mrobertson@sfchronicle.com or find her on Twitter at @mrobertsonsf.