Direct Conflict Deaths
Between 2004 and 2009, at least 208,300 violent deaths were recorded in armed conflicts—an average of 52,000 people killed per year. This is a conservative estimate including only recorded deaths: the real total may be much higher.
Direct conflict deaths are highly concentrated, with the top ten deadliest conflicts accounting for more than three-quarters of the global burden of violent mortality in war. A small number of countries accounts overwhelmingly for the global toll of conflict deaths. Consequently, carefully targeted armed violence reduction in a few selected countries could lead to measurable reductions in the global burden of armed violence.
Small Arms Survey Publications
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Tracking Conflict-related Deaths: A Preliminary Overview of Monitoring Systems, by Irene Pavesi. Briefing Paper, March 2017.
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Monitoring Trends in Violent Deaths, September 2016. Research Note No. 59.
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Global Burden of Armed Violence 2015: Every Body Counts, by the Geneva Declaration Secretariat. Published by Cambridge University Press. May 2015.
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Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011: Lethal Encounters, by the Geneva Declaration Secretariat. Published by Cambridge University Press. October 2011.
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Global Burden of Armed Violence 2008, by the Geneva Declaration Secretariat, September 2008.
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Armed Violence Prevention and Reduction: A Challenge for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals, by Keith Krause and Robert Muggah, June 2008
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Small Arms in Burundi: Disarming the Civilian Population in Peacetime, by Stéphanie Pézard and Nicolas Florquin, a study by the Small Arms Survey and the Ligue Iteka with support from UNDP–Burundi and Oxfam–NOVIB, August 2007. Special Report No. 7 (also available in French)
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Florquin, Nicolas, and Stéphanie Pézard. 2007. Armed Violence in Burundi: Conflict and Post-Conflict Bujumbura. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2007: Guns and the City.
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La République Centrafricaine: une étude de cas sur les armes légères et les conflits, by Eric G. Berman, with the support of UNDP, July 2006. Special Report No. 6
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The Instrument Matters: Assessing the Costs of Small Arms Violence, by Nicolas Florquin, 2006. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2006: Unfinished Business.
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The Use and Perception of Weapons Before and After Conflict: Evidence from Rwanda, by Cécelle Meijer and Philip Verwimp, October 2005. Working Paper No. 2
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The Role of Small Arms During the 2003–2004 Conflict in Iraq, by Riyadh Lafta et al., September 2005. Working Paper No. 1
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Gun-running in Papua New Guinea: From Arrows to Assault Weapons in the Southern Highlands, by Philip Alpers, June 2005. Special Report No. 5
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Sourcing the Tools of War: Small Arms Supplies to Conflict Zones, by Annee Khakee and Nicolas Florquin, 2005. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2005: Weapons at War.
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Violent Exchanges: The Use of Small Arms in Conflict, by James Bevan, 2005. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2005: Weapons at War.
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Behind the Numbers: Small Arms and Conflict Deaths, by Christina Wille with Keith Krause, 2005. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2005: Weapons at War.
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The Central African Republic: A Case Study of Small Arms and Conflict, by Eric Berman, 2005. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2005: Weapons at War.
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Reconsidering the Tools of War: Small Arms and Humanitarian Action, by Robert Muggah with Martin Griffiths, co-published with the Humanitarian Practice Network, Overseas Development Institute, July 2002.
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Caught in the Crossfire: The Humanitarian Impacts of Small Arms. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2002: Counting the Human Cost.
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Humanitarianism under Threat: The Humanitarian Impact of Small Arms and Light Weapons, by Robert Muggah and Eric Berman, commissioned by the Reference Group on Small Arms of the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee, July 2001. Special Report No. 1 (summary in French also available)
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After the Smoke Clears: Assessing the Effects of Small Arms Availability, by Robert Muggah, 2001. In Small Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2001: Profiling the Problem.
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Other Publications
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Florquin, Nicolas. 2014. Arms Prices and Conflict Onset: Insights from Lebanon and Syria. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research. May.
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Bohannon, John. 2011. Counting the Dead in Afghanistan. Science, Vol. 331, No. 6022. March, pp. 1256-1260. (See also related Datas and Documents)
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Muggah, Robert. 2011. Measuring the True Costs of War: Consensus and Controversy. PLoS Medicine, Vol. 8, No. 2. February.
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ARM (Afghanistan Rights Monitor). 2011. ARM Annual Report Civilian Casualties of War - January-December 2010. Kabul: Afghanistan Rights Monitor.
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Hsiao-Rei Hicks, Madelyn et al. 2011. Violent Deaths of Iraqi Civilians, 2003–2008: Analysis by Perpetrator, Weapon, Time, and Location. PLoS Medicine, Vol. 8, No. 2. February.
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Dardagan, Hamit, John Sloboda, and Richard Iron. 2010. In Everyone’s Interest: Recording All The Dead, Not Just Our Own. British Army Review. No. 149.
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Human Security Report Project. 2010. Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War. New York: Oxford University Press.
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Green, Penny and Tony Ward. 2009. The Transformation of Violence in Iraq. British Journal of Criminology. Vol. 49, No. 5. September, pp. 609–627.
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Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallensteen. 2009. Armed Conflicts, 1946–2008. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 46, No. 4. Pp. 577–587.
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Mathers, Colin D., et al. 2005. Counting the Dead and What They Died From: An Assessment of the Global Status of Cause of Death Data. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. Vol. 83, No. 3. March, pp. 171-180.
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Human Security Centre. 2005. Human Security Report 2005: War and Peace in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press.
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Guha-Sapir, Debarati and Willem Gijsbert. Conflict-related Mortality: An Analysis of 37 Datasets. 2004. Disasters, Vol. 28, No. 4. December, pp. 418–428.
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Further Resources
Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Centre for the Study of Civil War: Data on Armed Conflict