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After nearly 25 years of Saddam Hussein's rule, Iraqis generally welcomed his overthrow during the 2003 invasion, but the post-Saddam years have seen increased religious conflicts, economic struggles, insurgency, and the continued and divisive presence of occupying forces. RAND research on the Gulf Wars and nation-building efforts in Iraq have helped to inform and advise both the U.S. government and military, and the nascent Iraqi government.

Report

Foundations of the Islamic State

May 18, 2016

A thorough examination of the Islamic State's history and practices is useful for designing a coordinated and effective campaign against it — and for understanding why the group might be able to survive such an effort and sustain itself in the future.
Commentary

Partitioning Iraq: Make a Detailed Case, or Cease and Desist

May 16, 2016

The mostly non-Iraqi voices who want to divide the country into three ethno-sectarian cantonments—Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurd—owe the Iraqi people extensive, detailed clarification. If neither the Iraqi Arab polity nor Iraq's most powerful political factions seek three-way partition, then the case should be closed.

Explore Iraq

Report

Report

Calculating the Gross Regional Product of the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Arabic translation

Estimates the gross regional product (GRP) of the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq in 2012 (excluding natural resources) and describes efforts to set up a system for data collection and analysis to support future annual GRP calculation.

Dec 21, 2016
Commentary

What ISIS Leaves Behind in Mosul Will Reveal a Lot

The capture of Mosul, Iraq, may produce a potential trove of information about how ISIS organized itself to run a large city. Collecting, analyzing, and disseminating this material will be a major effort, one of the most important as the city is liberated.

Nov 18, 2016
News Release

News Release

An Independent Kurdistan Would Impact Its Neighbors

If the Kurdish region of northern Iraq were to become an independent nation the move would create important political and economic problems for the neighboring nations of Turkey and Iran, as well as for the Iraqi central government.

Nov 14, 2016
Report

How an Independent Kurdistan Might Impact Its Neighbors

The Kurds make up the fourth-largest ethnic group in the Middle East, but they have never formed a permanent nation state. If the Kurdish region of northern Iraq were to declare its independence, the move would create political and economic problems for Turkey, Iran, and the Iraqi central government.

Nov 14, 2016
Commentary

What the Battles of Mosul and Aleppo Tell Us About Their Countries' Futures

The battle of Mosul is not just about defeating ISIS. It is about restoring Mosul to the multi-ethnic city it once was. The Syrian government's style of warfare in Aleppo, however, accepts that Syria will remain a divided country.

Nov 14, 2016
Commentary

How Will Jihadist Strategy Evolve As the Islamic State Declines?

As ISIL experiences ongoing battlefield losses it will have to rework its strategy to sustain itself as a preeminent jihadist brand. Meanwhile, the group will likely place greater emphasis on smaller scale strikes that require less central direction.

Nov 10, 2016
Commentary

Can the Islamic State Lose Mosul and Still Win?

The loss of Mosul would be a serious blow for the Islamic State but past insurgencies suggest it is far too early to count the Islamic State out.

Oct 31, 2016
Report

Report

Calculating the Gross Regional Product of the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Kurdish translation

Estimates the gross regional product (GRP) of the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq in 2012 (excluding natural resources) and describes efforts to set up a system for data collection and analysis to support future annual GRP calculation.

Oct 21, 2016
Commentary

After the Battle for Mosul, Get Ready for ISIS to Go Underground

Only once ISIS's underground network is defeated will there be a real chance for enduring security and stability in Mosul.

Oct 18, 2016
Commentary

Demystifying the Islamic State

To counter the threat posed by the Islamic State group, it is crucial to understand what the terrorist organization is and what it is not. Attributing all jihadist violence to a ruthless gang headquartered in Raqqa exaggerates the power of the group and plays into their propaganda and recruiting efforts.

Aug 23, 2016
Commentary

President Obama's Controversial Legacy as Counterterrorism-in-Chief

There were no attacks like 9/11 during Obama's eight years in office. But there were plenty of terrorist adversaries. While he will be judged in part for his domestic achievements, Obama's counterterrorism choices are a major part of his legacy.

Aug 22, 2016
Commentary

Cutting the Islamic State's Money Supply

Airstrikes have hit ISIL tanker trucks, oil fields, refineries, and banks, but it would be a mistake to view the group as a poor man's version of its old self. New steps are needed to counter its multi-million dollar taxation and extortion machine.

Jul 21, 2016
Commentary

Is the Surge in Terrorist Attacks Coincidence or Coordinated Campaign?

Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed (or ignored) to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried.

Jul 11, 2016
Commentary

It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure

Pessimistically declaring the Arab Spring a failure in 2016 would be as naive as optimistically declaring it a success in 2011. Something comes next—but what?

Jun 15, 2016
Commentary

Striking Back at the Islamic State's Foreign Fighter Pipeline

Islamic State training camps are the breeding grounds of tomorrow's Brussels or Paris attacks, and their consistent penchant for training foreigners suggests that military and security officials need to get serious about how to deal with returnees from Iraq and Syria.

May 31, 2016
News Release

News Release

Declassified Documents Provide Insight into Origins of the Islamic State and How to Defeat the Group

Looking at more than 140 recently declassified documents from the predecessors of the Islamic State, it is evident that the group has been operating for years with remarkable continuity in its philosophy, methods, and goals, including the long-standing aspiration for creating a caliphate.

May 19, 2016
Dissertation

Dissertation

Deception in Covert Nuclear Weapons Development: A Framework to Identify, Analyze, and Mitigate Future Long-Term Deception Efforts

Develops a framework to categorize observable signatures, formulate a judgement on whether long-term deception is taking place, and propose additional areas of collection that may yield evidence of in research and development.

May 18, 2016
Report

Report

Initiatives to Improve Quality of Education in the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Administration, School Monitoring, Private School Policies, and Teacher Training (Kurdish-language version)

RAND supported the Kurdistan Regional Government in its aims to restructure its Ministry of Education, develop plans for a school quality assurance system, review support of private schools, and assess the content and quality of in-service training.

May 13, 2016

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