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CEP in the News 2016State of Working Britain Blog
The bottom two lines, however track the share of all households that are workless - counting the number of individuals in each household not in work using the same definition of employment as on the individual counts. For the UK, this measure of joblessness is 3 times as high as in the mid-1970s. Around 15% (1 in 7) of all working age households are now workless - despite the improvement in the individual based jobless count the workless household rate has improved but mot as much as the individual count. Not so good. And worse than the US where despite a relatively poor individual employment rate the US managed to avoid some - though by no means all - of the concentration of joblessness in households. In other words, the USA has a lower workless household rates despite having fewer jobs per head of population than the UK
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Related Links
Visit Richard Layard's web page
View a selection of CEP's research on the Financial Crisis
Visit The Big Short Website
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The Observer
Why it really does pay to get a good degree: you earn more
The study, Graduate Returns, Degree Class Premia and Higher Education Expansion in the UK, published by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, finds that, five years after university, graduates who qualified with a 2:1 or higher can expect to earn 7%-9% more than their counterparts with inferior degrees.
This article was published in The Observer on February 14 2016
Link to article here
Related Publications
'Graduate Returns, Degree Class Premia and Higher Education Expansion in the UK', Robin Naylor, Jeremy Smith and Shqiponja Telhaj, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1392, November 2015
Related Links
Shqiponja Telhaj webpage
Education and Skills Programme webpage
The UK in a Changing Europe blog
Brexit campaigns ignore 40 years of economic data
Article by Swati DhingraDuring the run up to this referendum, much has been said about the political consequences of leaving the EU (so-called 'Brexit'). But less attention is given to the economic consequences of Brexit.
This article was published online by The UK in a Changing Europe blog on February 9, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, CEP 2015 Election Analysis No.22, March 2015
The State of Working Britain - blog
Are immigrants taking all the new jobs?
Latest State of Working Britain blog by Jonathan Wadsworth
The central message is that it would be wrong to conclude from analysis of the net change in employment that migrants take all new jobs. Rather the net change is mostly a reflection of the changing populations in the two groups, as it would be if any group (red-heads, ice cream eaters etc) grew relative to others.
This blog post was published online on the State of Working Britain blog on February 9, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
The State of Working Britain blog webpage
PS News Online
Promoted to manager? Here are three things you should never forget
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage.
And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared on PS News Online on 8 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Reader's Digest Online
The machines are taking over!
But Professor Alan Manning from the London School of Economics is more sanguine. “There’s a very long history of believing that new technology will destroy jobs,” he explains. “While there have always been some workers who have lost out, most workers have gained. Almost everybody today is better off than they were 100 years ago because of new technology.”
This article appeared in Reader's Digest Online on 8 February 2016. Link to article
Related publications
Lovely and lousy jobs Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 2, Autumn 2013
Lovely and lousy jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain, Maarten Goos and Alan Manning, The Review of Economic Studies, 89(1), February 2007
'Lovely and lousy jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain', Maarten Goos and Alan Manning, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.604 December 2003
Related links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
The Daily Telegraph
The key to beating a midlife crisis? Don't worry about being happy
Professor Paul Dolan, a specialist in behavioural science at LSE, says there is currently too much emphasis placed upon traditional self-improvement methods, such as weight loss and career ambition, and too little on simple pleasures. "Don't pay attention to how happy things make you," Dolan told The Observer. "Instead, find things which make you feel good, and do more of them. A long-term sustainable impact on your life can be achieved, but not by sitting about thinking if only I was slimmer, fitter, richer, then I would be happier. It's not going to happen, so you'll still be miserable."
This article appeared in The Daily Telegraph on 8 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness by Design: Finding Pleasure and Purpose in Everyday Life Paul Dolan, 2014
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
The Daily Mail
Why the little things in life are the key to happiness: Doing more of what gives you pleasure is the simple solution to a mid-life crisis
Professor Paul Dolan, the man behind the study, says his subjects were asked how satisfied they were with their lives rather than how happy they felt.
And now he says the way to beat the blues is to embrace the small pleasures of life.
This article appeared in the Daily Mail on 8 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness by Design: Finding Pleasure and Purpose in Everyday Life Paul Dolan, 2014
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
The Telegraph
Britain lags rivals in robots - but automating the workplace may not mean huge job losses
The opportunity to automjate UK workplaces does not necessarily mean huge unemployment and lower pay as machines take over. The claims came in presentations ahead of the Automatica Robotics Trade Show, and aimed to highlight the changes to industry and scoiety the new technology will present. ''Robots can 'crowd out' people in lower-skilled jobs,'' said Guy Michaels, an economics professor at the LondonSchool of Economics who has studied the likely impact of robots. However, this process has been going on for hundreds of years with technology taking over tasks from humans but new roles develop as advances are made and new fields open up.
This article was published by The Telegraph on February 8, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335 March 2015
Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
The Observer
Banish those midlife blues – the secret to happiness starts with one small step
Paul Dolan, author of the bestselling Happiness By Design and professor of behavioural science at the London School of Economics, said patterns can be broken by taking care to enjoy the little things in life.
“I think too much is being made of the U-shape dip [that happens in the 40s and 50s],” he said. “It’s all about actually changing what you do to do more of the things we like – listen to music, go outdoors, meet friends and new people. If everybody did that every day we’d be a lot happier.”
This article appeared in The Observer on 7 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness by Design: Finding Pleasure and Purpose in Everyday Life Paul Dolan, 2014
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
The Independent
There is no science to being happy, however we try to measure it
Then, in 2005, Lord Richard Layard of the London School of Economics published Happiness: Lessons from a New Science, and inaugurated a new era of state-backed emotional inquiry.
This article appeared in the Independent on 6 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness - Lessons from a New Science, Richard Layard, Penguin, 2nd Edition 2011 Details
Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Financial Times
Quality of China's workers to rise, even if number falls
The central argument of Fadi Hassan, assistant professor of economics at Trinity College, Dublin, and consultant for Italy’s UniCredit, is that China’s demographic transformation should be kept in perspective. Mr Hassan notes that, barring very small countries, China currently has the second lowest dependency ratio in the world, beaten only by Moldova. At about 37 per cent, China’s ratio is a fraction of the 80 per cent or so it reached during the 1970s, before the effects of China’s two-child policy, initiated in 1970, and one-child policy, which came along in 1979, kicked in.
This article appeared in the Financial Times on 5 February 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Fadi Hassan webpage
Trade webpage
The Conversation
Why raising the minimum wage isn't the best way to reduce inequality
Other new research, however, has put that conclusion in doubt. Perhaps the most conclusive reassessment comes from economists David Autor, Alan Manning and Christopher Smith earlier this year. Using many more years of microdata from the CPS, as well as a different statistical approach, they found that the minimum wage explains at most 30 percent to 40 percent of the rise in wage inequality among the lowest earners.
This article appeared on The Conversation on February 5, 2016
Link to article here
Related Publications
Minimum wages: the economics and the politics, Alan Manning. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 19, Issue 1, Spring 2014
Related Links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
The Economist
More buyers wanted
Yet for all the ministerial airmiles and silver goblets, the country’s exports have remained fairly flat, and have been getting worse since 2012, certainly compared with those of the other big rich economies in the G7. The value of Britain’s exports fell by 1.5% in 2014 from 2013—the only G7 country where exports dropped—and last year’s figures were hardly inspiring, with a 1.5% fall in the three months to November compared with a year earlier. “It has been a disappointment, especially after the devaluation of sterling in 2008-09,” says John Van Reenen, head of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics (LSE).
This article appeared in the Economist on 5 February 2016. Link to article
Related Links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth webpage
The Independent
London can't keep sucking up the nation's culture for itself
A study by Sussex University and the London School of Economics (LSE) has come up with a list of the 33 things that make people happy. Yes, 33. If you’re the kind of person who finds round numbers cheering, this list is not for you. Researchers asked 20,000 people to download an app that buzzed them at various times of day and asked them to record their “happiness levels” and what they were doing at the time; they received more than a million responses.
This article appeared in the Independent on 4 February 2016. Link to article
Related publications
Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1 Summer 2013
'Are you happy while you work?', Alex Bryson and George MacKerron, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187 February 2013
Related Links
CEP Alumni webpage
The Irish Catholic
How to achieve happiness
The economist Richard Layard wrote a book called Happiness (Penguin, 2005) and points out that happiness has not increased since the 1950s, despite the fact that, in real terms, average salaries have more than doubled, we have more cars, bigger houses, a shorter working week, more holidays and better health.
This article appeared in Irish Catholic on 4 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness - Lessons from a New Science, Richard Layard, Penguin, 2nd Edition 2011 Details
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Richard Layard webpage
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Times of India
Here's why people feel miserable while at work
The app sporadically asked users questions such as how they are feeling, where they are and what they are doing. Mappiness users received a 'ding' on their smartphone at random times of the day, prompting them to complete a short survey, during which they ranked their well-being using a sliding scale. The researchers found that British people experience a 7-8 per cent drop in happiness while at work, compared to doing activities outside of work."Mappiness is interesting because it quizzes people in the moment, before they get a chance to reach for their rose-tinted glasses," said economist George MacKerron from University of Sussex who created the app.
This article appeared in Times of India on 4 February 2016 Link to article
Related publications
Are you happy while you work?, Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. Article in CentrePiece Volume 18, Issue 1 Summer 2013
'Are you happy while you work?' Alex Bryson and George MacKerron, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1187, February 2013
Related Links
CEP Alumni webpage
Money web (South Africa)
Academics in favour of minimum wages
Alan Manning from the London School of Economics said developed countries were under increasing pressure to introduce minimum wages, with 26 out of 34 OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries having them compared to 17 out of 30 in 1998. In the UK, where the national minimum wage was close to the equivalent of R150 per hour – the NMW was voted most successful policy of last 30 years.
This article appeared in Money Web on 3 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Minimum wages: the economics and the politics Alan Manning, May 2014 Paper No' CEPCP419
Related Links
Alan Manning webpage
Labour Markets webpage
Glow (Australia)
3 simple ways to make yourself a better manager
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage. And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared in Glow (Australia) on 3 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Harvard Business Review Online
The Rise of Data-Driven Decision Making Is Real but Uneven
We recently worked with a team at the U.S. Census Bureau and our colleagues Nick Bloom of Stanford and John van Reenen of the London School of Economics to design and field a large-scale survey to pursue these questions in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The survey targeted a representative group of roughly 50,000 American manufacturing establishments.
This article appeared in the Harvard Business Review Online on 3 February 2016 Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
BBC Radio 5 Live
Prof Paul Dolan interview
....on happiness is Paul Dolan is professor of behavioural science the London school of economics and author of happiness by design alone had...
This interview was broadcast on BBC Radio 5 Live on 2 February 2016 Link
Related Publications
Happiness by Design: Finding Pleasure and Purpose in Everyday Life Paul Dolan, 2014
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
The Stylist
''It's not about how to get things done, It's about how to get the right things done'': how to regain control of time when life gets busy
“The trouble is, as you get richer, you attach more value to your time, so it feels scarcer,” says Paul Dolan, professor of behavioural science at the London School of Economics, and the author of Happiness By Design: Finding Pleasure And Purpose In Everyday Life. “This attitude heaps the pressure on that small window of time to perform.”
This article appeared in the Stylist on 2 February 2016 Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness by Design: Finding Pleasure and Purpose in Everyday Life Paul Dolan, 2014
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Yahoo
Press Conference: How Robots Will Revolutionize Factories of the Future
Experts from the world's largest robotics + automation fair AUTOMATICA, the London School of Economics (LSE) and the German Engineering Association VDMA will present their vision of how robotics + automation are reshaping industry at a press conference on Monday, 8th February 2016 (11:00 am - 1:00 pm). The conference will be held at the Institute of Directors (IoD, 116 Pall Mall ) in London by AUTOMATICA. The SpeakersDr. Martin Lechner, New Technologies expert, AUTOMATICA, Messe Muenchen
Prof. Guy Michaels, London School of Economics
This article appeared on Yahoo on 2 February 2016. Link to article
Related publications
Robots at work: the impact on productivity and jobs Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 1 Summer 2015
'Robots at Work', Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1335 March 2015
Related Links
Georg Graetz webpage
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Business Australia
Promoted to manager? Here are three things you should never forget
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage. And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared in Business Australia on 2 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
The Post
Minimum wage a 'blunt tool'
Alan Manning from the London School of Economics said there was strong evidence that higher levels of minimum wages were associated with lower levels of wage inequality. He, however, warned while effective, the system was a blunt instrument for addressing household poverty.
This article appeared in The Post on 2 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Minimum wages: the economics and the politics Alan Manning, May 2014 Paper No' CEPCP419
Related Links
Alan Manning webpage
Labour Markets webpage
The Guardian
Bank's forecasts will be vindicated, like stopped clock is right twice a day
[David] Blanchflower and [Stephen] Machin argue labour market must tighten further before pay growth picks up, something Bank of England consistently fails to acknowledge.
This article was published by The Guardian on February 2, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
Slowing UK Wage Growth, David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin, Centre for Economic Performance Real Wages Update blog, February 2016
Related links
Stephen Machin webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
CEP Real Wages Update blog webpage
The State of Working Britain - blog
Is the rise in low skilled jobs holding back wage growth?
Article by Jonathan WadsworthSome commentators have suggested that the latest upswing has been characterised by a greater share of low skilled jobs in the recovery compared to previous upturns. If so then we can all blame low skilled firms and/or the low skilled for poor productivity growth.
This article was published online by The State of Working Britain blog on February 2, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
The State of Working Britain blog webpage
Business Insider Australia
There's one trait that most bad managers share -- here are 3 ways to deal with it
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage. And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared in Business Insider Australia on 1 February 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
City A.M.
How to make a success of your failed New Year resolutions, by Paul Dolan
Despite big ambitions to change behaviour through determination alone, HSBC’s research showed that 60 per cent of people blamed a lack of willpower for failing to achieve their resolutions. Indeed, there is significant evidence to suggest that contextual cues play one of the most important roles in changing our behaviour. So design power is more effective than willpower.
This article appeared in City A.M. on 1 February 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing webpage
On Wall Street Online
HSBC Combines Data and Behavioral Analysis for New App
HSBC is aiming for the former with its new financial management app, called Nudge. Released last week, the app is being trialed with just 500 customers in the U.K., as the bank is being extra careful to work out any kinks before rolling the app out to its wider customer base, said HSBC spokeswoman Jenna Brown.
The app uses "nudge theory" to encourage customers to make small, regular financial decisions that will result in a change to long-term spending habits.
This article appeared in On Wall Street Online on 1 February 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing webpage
Parliamentary Business: Publications and Records
The Government's productivity plan
CEP's Anna Valero written evidence for the Government's Productivity Plan Inquiry contributed to the final report.The Government's heralded 'Productivity Plan' lacks clear, measurable objectives and largely amounts to an assortment of existing policies, says the Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) Committee in a report published today. The BIS Committee calls on the Government to set out how it is going to implement the Productivity Plan and measure the success of each of the assortment of policies included in the plan. The Productivity Plan consists of 15 different policy areas, from transport, energy, and planning to science, finance, and infrastructure. The BIS Committee report focuses on the main areas in the Plan relating to skills, innovation, and investment, looking at areas such as investment in Research & Development (R&D), apprenticeships, and student visas.
The press release and report were published on January 29, 2016
Link to the full BIS report here
Related publications
Written evidence for the Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics (GPP 39), Published written evidence for 2nd Report - The Government's Productivity Plan, Anna Valero.
Productivity and Business Policies, Anna Valero and Isabelle Roland, CEP 2015 Election Analyses No.21, March 2015
La Reppublica
Padre licenziato? I figli vanno male a scuola
C'è un costo addizionale della disoccupazione dei padri: il crollo del rendimento scolastico dei figli. Lo sostiene un'economista spagnola, Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, del Centre for Economic Performance - London School of Economics: sulla base di una lunga indagine condotta su 358 studenti che frequentavano la scuola dell'obbligo nella provincia di Barcellona, e che ha coperto cinque anni scolastici, dal 2007-2008 fino al 2011-2012, Valenzuola è arrivata alla conclusione che la perdita del lavoro del padre si traduce in una diminuzione del rendimento scolastico pari al 13% rispetto alla deviazione standard. "Quest'effetto - spiega l'economista sul sito "Nada es gratis" - varia a seconda del sottogruppo considerato: si concentra, e l'ampiezza è anche maggiore, tra gli studenti i cui genitori hanno un livello d'istruzione più basso e soffrono maggiori periodi di disoccupazione".
This article appeared in La Reppublica on 28 January 2016 Link to article
Related Publications
Job Loss at Home: Children's School Performance During the Great Recession in Spain Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, July 2015 Paper No' CEPDP1364
Related Links
Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela webpage
Education webpage
Golf Punk
Golf is good for you
Shocking new research from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) has found that regular walking is more effective at keeping weight down than vigorous activities such as going to the gym.
This article appeared in Golf Punk on 28 January 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Grace Lordan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Golf Club Management (Online)
Regular golf is the best way to keep your weight down, according to new research
New research from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) has found that regular walking is more effective at keeping weight down than vigorous activities such as going to the gym. The walking needs to be brisk and the research applies to men over the age of 50 and women of all ages.
This article appeared in Golf Club Management (Online) on 28 January 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Grace Lordan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Rappler.com
Promoted to manager? Here are 3 things you should never forget
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage. And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared in Rappler.com on 28 January 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Entrepreneur Online
The 7 Traits of Successful Entrepreneurs
Entrepreneurs exist to defy conventional wisdom. A survey last year by Ross Levine of the University of California, Berkeley, and Yona Rubinstein of the London School of Economics found that among incorporated entrepreneurs, a combination of "smarts" and "aggressive, illicit, risk-taking activities" is a characteristic mix.
This article appeared in Entrepeneur Online on 28 January 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Does it Pay? Ross Levine, Yona Rubinstein, August 2013 Paper No' CEPDP1237
Related Links
Yona Rubinstein webpage
Growth webpage
CVER / OECD Report Launch
Building Skills for All: Review of England
Report Launch - Building Skills for All
Review of England
On 28 January 2016 we hosted the launch of the OECD report on adult skills in England, Building Skills for All, Review of England.
In England there are around nine million people with low literacy or numeracy skills or both. These nine million people might, for example, struggle to estimate how much petrol is left in the petrol tank from a sight of the gauge, or not be able to fully understand instructions on a bottle of aspirin. While basic skills of older people in England compare reasonably well with skills of their counterparts in other countries, younger people are lagging badly behind. This report was commissioned to offer an independent assessment of what could be behind these issues and to recommend some potential policy solutions.
Speakers included: Frank Bowley (Deputy Director, Skills Policy Analysis, BIS), Sandra McNally (Director, CVER) and report authors
- Download the full report from OECD website
- Read the CVER blog post
Business Australia
Promoted to manager? Here's three things you should never forget
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage. And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared in Business Australia on 27 January 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Epoch Times
Promoted to Manager? Here Are Three Things You Should Never Forget
Researchers at the London School of Economics have for many years been tracking the performance of managers, as rated by the people they manage. And the results are poor, particularly for managers in the UK, France and Australia.
This article appeared in the Epoch Times on 26 January 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
The New Empirical Economics of Management Nicholas Bloom, Renata Lemos, Raffaella Sadun, Daniela Scur and John Van Reenen April 2014 Paper No' CEPOP41
Related Links
Nick Bloom webpage
Renata Lemos webpage
Raffaella Sadun webpage
Daniela Scur webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Dallas Healthcare Daily
Dallas Regional Chamber Meeting Shines A Light On Healthcare Costs
The report was prepared by researchers at Yale University, the University of Pennsylvania, Carnegie Mellon University, and the Centre for Economic Performance. It is among the first to analyse a database of private insurance claims, a fact that it qualifies as “an initial foray into understanding the cross sectional variation in healthcare spending”.
This article appeared in Dallas Healthcare Daily. Link to article
Related publications
'The Price Ain't Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured' Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1395, December 2015
Related links
Zack Cooper webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Politikon
El impacto intergeneracional de la pérdida de trabajo parental durante la crisis, by Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela
Las noticias sobre el mercado laboral, y en particular sobre la evolución de la tasa de paro, han ocupado telediarios y no pocos artículos de prensa desde el inicio de la crisis en España. Cómo resumía en esta entrada en NEG, la evidencia empírica ha mostrado efectos desfavorables de la pérdida de trabajo para el propio trabajador (v.g., pérdidas salariales a corto plazo que parecen persistir en el largo plazo, mayor riesgo de divorcio o peor salud mental y física).
This article appeared in Politikon on 26 January 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela webpage
Education webpage
The State of Working Britain - blog
Are we there yet? Full employment in the UK
In the first of a new blog from LSE's Centre for Economic Performance, Jonathan Wadsworth comments on the issue of full employment in the UK.
This article was published online by the CEP's The State of Working Britain blog on January 26, 2016
Link to the article here
Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
El Candelero Tecnológico
¿Nuevos retos para 2016? Microsoft puede ayudarte a lograrlos
Como afirma el doctor Paul Dolan, experto en Ciencia del Comportamiento de la London School of Economics, “cuando nos fijamos propósitos, debemos partir de qué va a hacernos felices más que en qué deberíamos hacer.
This article appeared in El Candelero Tecnológico on 25 January 2016 Link to article
Related Links
Paul Dolan webpage
Wellbeing webpage
Open Democracy
Eastern Europe's crisis of compassion
In a recent lecture, based on the above mentioned Gallup Survey, professor Alan Manning from the London School of Economics estimated that 630 million people plan to migrate away from their home countries globally, with 48 million planning to leave in the next twelve months and 19 million of them already making preparations to move.
This article appeared in Open Democracy on 25 January 2016. Link to article
Related links
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage
Sky News Tonight
Dr Thomas Sampson from the Centre for Economic Performance says the EU accounts for about half of all UK trade
Dr Thomas Sampson from the Centre for Economic Performance says the EU accounts for about half of all UK trade.
This interview was broadcast by Sky News Tonight on January 25, 2016
Link to interview here
Related publications
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, CEP 2015 Election Analysis Series, March 2015
Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Building.co.uk
Brexit: Ins and outs
The CBI estimates that leaving the EU would, ''conservatively'' have a significant net negative impact on the UK economy of £78bn annually, or about 4-5 percent of GDP. However, others have made more dire predictions, including the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, which says the impact could be as much as 9.5 percent of GDP - the same as the 2008/9 banking crisis.
This article was published online by Building.co.uk on January 21, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, CEP 2015 Election Analysis No.22, March 2015
Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Politico
Markets to policymakers: Do something!
Tumbling global markets are issuing a cry for help to policymakers of all stripes: Do something. As investors, traders and pundits scramble to understand the reasons for the terrible start to 2016, more and more are looking at central banks and politicians to restore the swagger of years gone by. ''If we have another bad shock, what are policymakers going to do? Interest rates are already near zero,'' said John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He points to investor fears of a prolonged slowdown in economic growth as the key ''fear factor'' coursing through the markets.
This article was published by Politico on January 21, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Modern Healthcare
Commentary: 'The Price Ain't Right' ain't right
It's not every day that an unpublished academic study rates a front-page story in the New York Times, let alone an additional continuation page replete with graphics, but that was the treatment accorded to the study titled 'The Price Ain't Right? Hospital Prices and Spending on the Privately Insured' on Dec. 15. Even more remarkably, the study itself, while well-written and full of interesting information, contained no substantive findings that should have been at all surprising to anyone who has followed the health policy or health economics literature in recent years.
This article was published online by Modern Healthcare on January 21, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
The Price Ain’t Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance DP 1395, December 2015
Related links
Zack Cooper webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Vox
Do floods shift economic activity to safer areas?
Article by Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand RauchDuring the past couple of months alone, floods have displaced 100,000 people or more in Kenya, in Paraguay and Uruguay, and in India, as well as more than 50,000 people in the UK. And rising sea levels due to climate change loom. This column assesses the risk and the challenges for policymakers. It details the effects of flooding in cities around the world, showing that economic activity is concentrated in low-elevation urban areas, despite their much greater exposure to flooding. And worryingly, economic activity tends to return to flood-prone low-lying areas rather than relocating.
This blog article was published online by Vox on January 21, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Business Advice
Why Sheffield might be the best place for your new business
There is an overall increase in new companies for a range of reasons. One reason has certainly been the economic downturn, which has resulted in people having difficulty find a job and turning to entrepreneurship, according to John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance and professor of Economics at the London School of Economics.
This article was published online by Business Advice on January 21, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
PR Week
Showcase: Sir David Attenborough promotes clean energy at COP21
Last June a clutch of British grandees including former UK chief scientist Sir David King and professor Richard Layard of the LSE launched the Global Apollo Program (GAP).
This article appeared in PR Week on 20 January 2016. Link to article
Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Guardian
Corrections and clarifications
A report (Pay growth predicted to stall at 2% as number of skilled workers rises, 30 December, page 20) said that over the past year almost three-quarters of new jobs created went to non-UK nationals, according to official figures - 326,000 compared with 122,000 jobs taken by UK workers. The ONS estimates relate to the number of people in employment, not to the number of jobs. The London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance has found that immigrants do not account for a majority of new jobs, but that ''the immigrant share in new jobs is - and always has been - broadly the same as the share of immigrants in the working age population''.
This online article was published by the Guardian on January 20, 2016
Link to article here
Related Publications
Immigration and the UK Labour Market by Jonathan Wadsworth, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analyses Series, Paper No.19, February 2015
Related links
Jonathan Wadsworth webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
The Independent
Petition urging Theresa May to scrap £35,000 threshold for non-EU migrants soars past 50,000 signatures
“These migrants also, on average, make a substantial net contribution to the public finances,” said Professor David Metcalf, the committee’s chairman.
This article appeared in the Independent on 18 January 2016. Link to article
Related Links
David Metcalf webpage
Labour Markets webpage
The Grocer
Sunday trading: what's the case for longer hours?
Results from the Centre for Economic Performance study in March 2015 suggest deregulation of Sunday trading laws has a considerable positive impact on employment, which stems from new firms being able to enter the market and job creation in existing firms, too. It also found that deregulation increased expenditure as a whole.
This article was published in The Grocer on January 16, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
'Evaluating the Impact of Sunday Trading Deregulation', Christos Genakos and Svetoslav Danchev, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1336, March 2015
Related links
Christos Genakos webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Nada es Gratis (Spain)
¿Afecta la pérdida de trabajo de los padres a las notas de los niños?
Jeni Ruiz-Valenzuela's blog article on the negative effect of fathers' unemployment on their children based on Spain's great recession.
This article was published by The Nada es Gratis blog (Spain) on January 13, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
In brief...Parental job loss: the impact on children's school performance, Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 2, Autumn 2015
'Job Loss at Home: Children's School Performance During the Great Recession in Spain', Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1364, July 2015
Related links
Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela webpage
Education and Skills Programme webpage
City A.M.
Flood-o-nomics: why flooding will remain a problem
Article by Guy MichaelsIn a new study published by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), we examine why so many people are hit by floods year after year. In particular, we ask whether urban populations respond to massive floods by moving to safer areas. We study the effects of more than 50 large floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries from 2003 to 2008.
This article was published by City A.M. on January 11, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
Flooded Cities,Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch. Article in CentrePiece, Volume 20, Issue 3, Winter 2015/16
'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K. J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Thejournal.ie
One way to help stop floods? Don't let developers build on flood plains
Dr Tom McDermott of the School of Economics and the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork has been working with colleagues from the London School of Economics and Oxford University to examine overpopulation in flood-prone locations.
This article was published online by Thejournal.ie on January 11, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Mail on Sunday
Donald Trump's £700m blowhard: Economist brands billionaire's promise of Scots bonanza a 'fairytale'
Professor Paul Cheshire accused the tycoon of hugely exaggerating the size and benefits of his stake in Scotland and said promises made by him were falling apart at the seams.
This article was published by the Mail on Sunday on January 10, 2016
Link to article here
Health IT Outcomes
Study shines light on hospital spending
There is striking variation nationwide among the prices hospitals negotiate with health insurance companies according to research from Carnegie Mellon economist Martin Gaynor, and it is shedding light on hospital spending. The study, The Price Ain’t Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured, provides an unprecedented examination into the process of price negotiation revealing how they are set and the wide variations that exist across geographic region and demographic groups.
This article appeared in Health IT Outcomes on 7 January 2016. Link to article
Related publications
The Price Ain’t Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured Zack Cooper, Stuart Craig, Martin Gaynor and John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance DP 1395, December 2015
Related links
Zack Cooper webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Irish Examiner
Experts back tighter restrictions for building on flood-prone plains
Climate change experts have backed calls for tighter planning restrictions to prevent new building on flood plains after the worst national flooding crisis in a generation. After a major study of city floods around the world, academics at University College Cork, the London School of Economics, and Oxford University found no evidence that cities, their economic hubs, or large population centres relocate after large floods. Full economic activity has usually resumed in the flood-prone zones, usually within a year, they said. The study also warned that modern cities with high population concentrations in low-lying areas face greater flood risk as sea levels rise and extreme rainfall episodes become more frequent.
This article was published online by the Irish Examiner on January 7, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
News Journal online (Delaware, USA)
$450M Powerball: sixth-largest jackpot in US history
Wednesday nights’ Powerball drawing is worth approximately $450 million. That’s the sixth-largest lottery jackpot in U.S. history, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association, which runs Powerball in 44 states. … That kind of money can change a person’s life in more than just the expected ways. A study done in 2014 by two professors at British universities found that people who had come into a windfall after winning a large lottery frequently changed the way they vote and became more conservative. “We find that the larger is their lottery win, the greater is that person’s subsequent tendency, after controlling for other influences, to switch their political views from left to right,” according to the study, done by Nattavudh Powdthavee, of the London School of Economics, and Andrew Oswald, of the University of Warwick.
This article appeared on News Journal Online (Delaware, USA) link to article
Related publications
Does Money Make People Right-Wing and Inegalitarian? A Longitudinal Study of Lottery Winners Nattavudh Powdthavee and Andrew J. Osald, February 2014
Related links
Nick Powdthavee webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Independent.ie (Ireland)
Frontline workers continue to toil full month after the first rains fell
New research co-authored by Dr Tom McDermott of the School of Economics and the Environmental Research Institute at UCC finds that in the past 30 years, more than 500,000 people have been killed by floods and more than 650 million displaced globally.
This article appeared in the Independent.ie on 6 January 2016 Link to article
Related publications
Flooded Cities Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
BBC Radio York
News
Guy Michaels discusses his study on flooding in the UK
This programme was broadcast on 6 January 2016 on BBC Radio York Link
Also on:
BBC Radio Humberside, BBC Radio Nottingham, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cumbria, BBC Radio Scotland, BBC Radio Wiltshire and BBC Radio Cornwall
Related publications
Flooded Cities Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Accountancy Age
Macpherson to leave Treasury after 10 years in Permanent Secretary role
A visiting Professor at King's College London, he also chairs the Policy Committee of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.
This article appeared in Accountancy Age on 6 January 2016. Link to article
Related links
Centre for Economic Performance Policy Committee info.
BBC Radio 5 Live
Phil Williams show
Guy Michaels discusses his study of the economic impact of floods and likelihood of people moving from flooding areas.
The interview was broadcast by BBC Radio 5 Live on January 5, 2016
Link to interview here
(43 mins in)
Related publications
'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Foreign Affairs Publisher
News story: Departure of Sir Nicholas Macpherson GCB, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, announced
Nick is a visiting Professor at King’s College London, and chairs the Policy Committee of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.
This article appeared in Foreign Affairs Publisher on 5 January 2016 Link to article
Related links
Centre for Economic Performance Policy Committee info.
Personnel Today
Linking work and health: the What Works Centre for Wellbeing
Cross-cutting capabilities: This project is being led by Professor Lord Richard Layard of the London School of Economics and will assess and develop methods of understanding how policy and practice can affect wellbeing. It will look at the effect of different factors on wellbeing, analyse the impact of wellbeing on other outcomes and develop a framework for cost effectiveness analysis with wellbeing as the measure of benefit. It will also carry out a “life course” analysis, looking at how important early life is to wellbeing in later years.
This article appeared on Personnel Today on 5 January 2016 Link to article
Related Links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing webpage
Sport Economy.it
Il FPF al centro di una giornata organizzata da FIGC e UniBocconi
Saranno relatori Donato Masciandaro (Cattedra in Economia della Regolamentazione Finanziaria presso l’Università Bocconi, Direttore del Centro di economia monetaria e finanziaria Paolo Baffi), Michele Uva (Direttore Generale FIGC, membro UEFA National Team Competitions Committee), Andrea Agnelli (Presidente Juventus FC, Rappresentante dell’European Club Associations e membro del Comitato Esecutivo UEFA), Umberto Gandini (Direttore Organizzazione Sportiva AC Milan, Vice Presidente del Consiglio Esecutivo dell’European Club Associations), Gian Marco Ottaviano (Docente presso The London School of Economics and Political Science), Karl-Heinz Rummenigge (Dirigente Bayern Monaco, Presidente del Consiglio Esecutivo dell’European Club Associations e Rappresentante dell’ECA, membro del Comitato Esecutivo UEFA), e Andrea Traverso (UEFA Head of Club Licensing & Financial Fair Play) che chiuderà i lavori
This article appeared in Sport Economy.it on 5 January 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Trade webpage
Bloomberg
Better Building Rules Would Help U.K.'s Flooding Woes, CEP Says
Tighter construction restrictions and incentives to build outside flood-prone areas would minimize damage to the U.K. economy from heavy rain and rising water levels, according to the Centre for Economic Performance.
Thousands of families across northern England and Scotland have evacuated their homes or been left without power in recent weeks, while KPMG LLP estimated the economic loss in December was more than 5 billion pounds ($7.3 billion). While low-lying areas are more likely to be hit by large-scale floods, businesses and homes don’t tend to move to safer locations, according to the CEP’s analysis of data from 2003 to 2008.
This article appeared in Bloomberg on 5 January 2016. Link to article
Related publications
Flooded Cities Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Il Sole 24
Brexit catastrophe per Londra
Brexit would be a catastrophe for the British economy: leaving the European Union would mean sacrificing the prosperity and the future security of the United Kingdom, according to a survey among experts. None of the more than one hundred renowned economists consulted by the Financial Times believes that leaving the EU would be a positive move for growth... ''The idea that a London free from the EU will be able to sign many new trade agreements is pure fantasy'', said John Van Reenen, Director of the Centre for Economic Performance.
This article was published online by Il Sole 24 (Italy) on January 5, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Leicester Mercury
When walking briskly beats a gym workout
... gym membership for some good walking shoes. New research from the London School of Economics and Political ...
This article was published by the Leicester Mercury on January 4, 2016
(no link available)
Related Links
Grace Lordan webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
Bloomberg News
Departure of Sir Nicholas Macpherson GCB, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, announced
Nick is a visiting Professor at King’s College London, and chairs the Policy Committee at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.
This article appeared in Bloomberg on 4 January 2016. Link to article
Related links
Centre for Economic Performance Policy Committee info.
Yahoo Parenting
Are Smaller Families Better for Kids?
The economists — Chinhui Juhn and C. Andrew Zuppann of the University of Houston, and Yona Rubinstein of the London School of Economics — used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth in 1979, which asked questions about kids’ math and reading skills, behavior, and home environments, such as how often parents read to them or help with homework; it followed up on cognitive abilities and noncognitive traits biannually through 2012.
This article appeared in Yahoo Parenting on 4 January 2016. Link to article
Related Links
Yona Rubinstein webpage
Labour Markets webpage
Community webpage
The Guardian
Treasury permanent secretary Sir Nicholas Macpherson to step down
He is a visiting professor at King’s College London, and chairs the policy committee of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.
This article appeared in the Guardian on 4 January 2016 Link to article
Related links
Centre for Economic Performance Policy Committee info.
The Telegraph
Top Treasury civil servant Sir Nick Macpherson to step down in April
The Treasury's top civil servant, Sir Nicholas Macpherson, is set to stand down in April, having led the Government department for over a decade. George Osborne, the Chancellor, said he would ''miss'' Sir Nicholas, 56, who he described as one of the ''outstanding public servants of his generation''. ... The Eton and Balliol college, Oxford educated civil servant has held various public sector roles since 1985, after starting a career as an economist at the Confederation of British Industry and Peat Marwick Consulting, which was absorbed by KPMG. Sir Nicholas is a visiting professor at King's College London, and chairs the Policy Committee of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He said that it had been ''a privilege to lead the Treasury through an extraordinary period''.
This article was published online by The Telegraph on January 4, 2016
Link to article here
See also
Accountancy Age
Macpherson to leave Treasury after 10 years in Permanent Secretary role
Related links
Centre for Economic Performance Policy Committee info.
AOL
Kids from big families may be less likely to succeed
A study by researchers Chinhui Juhn and C. Andrew Zuppann of the University of Houston, along with Yona Rubinstein of the London School of Economics, suggests that the more children a family has, the less likely those children will have a good life.
This article appeared in AOL on 3 January 2016 Link to article
Related Links
Yona Rubinstein webpage
Labour Markets webpage
Community webpage
The Financial Times
Economists' forecasts: Osborne faces problems imposing more cuts
Chancellor George Osborne will struggle to impose further spending cuts over the next five years, most economists believe.
Question:
Fiscal policy: Please explain which of the below statements is closest to your views.
George Osborne will:
a) struggle to impose his planned spending cuts and revenues will fall short of expectations
b) struggle to impose his planned spending cuts but revenues will remain on target or better
c) succeed in cutting spending, but revenues will fall short
d) succeed in cutting spending and revenues will remain on target or better
John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance:
b) struggle to impose his planned spending cuts but revenues will remain on target or better
Osborne has been raising taxes so revenues will increase because of this. He will probably loosed spending cuts some more as he has already done. The key problem is that the target to create a surplus on the total budget makes no economic sense. There is no reason to keep public investment damped down by the target, not to fix an arbitrary date instead of a 5 year ahead planning horizon as in the OBR's original mandate.
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
The Financial Times
Economists' Forecasts: Boosts and risks to recovery
Four out of five economists in the Financial Times survey see another good year of UK growth, keeping Britain near the top of the international table for advanced economies, a position it has enjoyed since the start of 2013.
Question: Economic prospects: How easily will Britain's economy secure a third decent year of growth? Please explain your thinking
John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance:
Growth is likely to be similar or a little lower than this year's. It is disappointing that we are still so far below pre-crisis trends. There are many risks to the downside globally: problems in China and other big emerging markets like Brazil and South Africa; global security risks & ongoing slow growth in Eurozone. UK growth is still too property focused with a lot of household debt. There's no ''march of the makers'', as exports and manufacturing continue to underperform.
This article was published by The Financial Times on January 3, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
The Financial Times
Economists' Forecasts: Interest rates to stay low
British households can look forward to another year of ultra-low interest rates, with most economists expecting a maximum 1 per cent by the end of 2016. Just five out of 104 respondents to the question: ''Please explain why you think monetary policy will be tighter or looser by the end of 2016. How much will it change?'' see a rise of more than half a percentage point. A modest tightening was forecast by 72, while 21 expected policy to remain on hold or even loosen further.
John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance:
Tighter. Interest rates around 1.5% if things continue to improve.
This article was published by The Financial Times on January 3, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
The Financial Times
Economists' forecasts: Policies will not stop house price rises
Government initiatives to support home ownership and build new houses will fail to have any real impact in 2016, with UK property prices expected to keep climbing.John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance:
As noted above they are simply stoking up demand whereas the problem is one of supply.
This article was published by The Financial Times on January 3, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
See UK Housing and Planning Policies: the evidence from economic research by Christian Hilber, Centre for Economic Performance 2015 Election Analyses No.33, April 2015
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
The Financial Times
Economists' forecasts: Fears over balance of recovery
The size of the current account deficit and the UK's reliance on household consumption are among the main worries for Britain's leading economists.John van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance:
First, productivity remains extremely weak, being about 14% below long-run trends. Low investment is a major contributor, but we also need more of a strategic plan to improve TFP. Second, the housing market is being stoked up by foolish government schemes like Help to Buy. I am doubtful whether housebuilding targets will be met and so ongoing house price inflation continues.
This article was published by The Financial Times on January 3, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
The Financial Times
Economists' forecasts: Brexit would damage growth
John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic PerformanceThe direct effects on incomes and GDP would be long-term and obviously depend on the exact negotiations of what follows. Under a pessimistic scenario we have estimated losses of real income over the long-run of 6-9% of real incomes.
This article appeared in The Financial Times on January 3, 2016
Link to article here
Related Publications
Brexit or Fixit? The Trade and Welfare Effects of Leaving the European Union G.I.P. Ottaviano, Joao Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen May 2014
Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Bangor Daily News
Will You Be Happy in the New Year?
By the end of the 20th Century, some economists were beginning to question the logical problems that this had led economics to and started talking about happiness again. Prominent among these was Richard Layard of the London School of Economics. Layard’s 2005 book, Happiness: Lessons from a New Science is an important resource for new thinking about happiness.
This article appeared in the Bangor Daily News on 2 January 2016. Link to article
Related Publications
Happiness - Lessons from a New Science, Richard Layard, Penguin, 2nd Edition 2011 Details
Related links
Richard Layard webpage
Wellbeing Programme webpage
The Financial Times
Subsidies encourage housebuilding on floodplains, report finds
The UK taxpayer is left to pick up the cost of flooding because housebuilders do not contribute enough when building homes, giving them an incentive to build on floodplains, according to research. Flooding costs between 2 and 8 per cent of an area's economic activity in the year after a flood, the research for the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance found.
This article was published by The Financial Times on January 1, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
'Flooded Cities', Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No.1398, December 2015
Related links
Guy Michaels webpage
Ferdinand Rauch webpage
Labour Markets Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage