DSLRs all over the place

rrccad wrote:

brownie314 wrote:

rrccad wrote:

even if you assume that no cameras shipped before 2012 are in use:

there's just simply alot more DSLR's still being shipped and sold, and the install base ratio increases every single month. Not to mention that it seems that MILC's have alot more GAS involved with just about every MILC owner having 2+ camera bodies. I suspect that most of the DSLR users have a DSLR + kit zoom and are perfectly happy.

there's probably in excess of another 30 million DSLR's above that (2011 shipments around 15 million).

what's surprising is that given all the crowing and noise from the MILC owners, the install base still isn't growing anything but linear, and alot slower than DSLR growth - identifying that while canon and nikon continue to make DSLR's .. MILC's are never going to catch up.

The rate of growth of installed base of both types looks roughly linear to me. If anything I can detect a slight bend downward in the installed base of DSLR users. But the MILC installed base looks very linear.

yes, but even with a slight bend downward - every month, DSLR's are increasing their marketshare over MILC"s. MILC's aren't even close to breaking even on install base, let alone diminishing the gap. it's also the only data we have that seperates them, before 2012 CIPA just called them ILC's and lumped both together.

While DSLRs are increasing their market share in terms of the number of units, proportionally the gap is remaining the same. If you compare the number of DSLRs and the number of mirrorless at any point on the graph, it is approximately 4:1. That ratio is quite stable - if anything, the gap is decreasing a little.

Anyway, it doesn't make much sense to look at 3 years worth of data on an event that has much longer time period trends and declare one or the other the "winner" (whatever that means).

I don't think i used that term.

however 3 years data is actually alot longer than for instance, Sony used on their PR, and also what you usually see tossed around for mirrorless which is YoY - which is never good for an actual trend.