Warm fall, mild winter predicted for Edmonton: Environment Canada

It's not your imagination: it was a hotter-than-normal summer in Edmonton this year.

In fact, the summer of 2015 was the hottest in 54 years, according to Dave Phillips, a  senior climatologist with Environment Canada.

Normally, Edmonton sees four days with plus-30 degree temperatures in a summer. This year, the weather station at City Centre-Blatchford recorded 12 days.

"It was on fire," Phillips said.

Stony Plain's weather station also recorded record highs, he added.

Problem with precipitation

While temperatures soared, precipitation in and around the city dropped significantly compared to normal, with only about 40 per cent of average rainfall measured in May, June and July.

For many farmers and gardeners, a return to more normal precipitation amounts at the end of July was too late.

"They were really suffering," Phillips said. 

• Alberta crop yield at 5-year low after extreme weather
• Drought forces some Alberta cattle ranchers to sell stock
• Grasshoppers latest plague to hit Alberta's bone-dry farms

A farmer's field near Leduc shows the impact of the hot, dry weather. (Rick Bremness/CBC)

By August, Edmonton had recovered to about two thirds of its normal precipitation.

So far, September has been wetter than usual, Phillips said, and also warmer.

According to Phillips, Edmontonians can expect "wall-to-wall" sunshine for the next seven days, with slightly-hotter-than-normal temperatures and no worries of overnight frost.

And that pattern is expected to continue through the fall.

"We think that this fall looks like it's going to be warmer than normal," Phillips said. "I wouldn't write the obituary on summery-like weather."

Warmer winter predicted

While he can't make any guarantees that the snow will hold off until after Halloween, Phillips said Environment Canada data so far seems in favour of snowsuit-free costumes for the kids, followed by a likely warmer winter than usual.

Phillips credits the mild forecast to residual heat left over from the hot summer and to the effects of the 'Super' El Nino.

• The bad news for Western drought: 'monster' hot El Nino on the way
• El Nino this year could be a record-breaker
• Environment Canada predicts mild fall and winter in northwestern Canada

"When you look at the past Super El Nino years — and there's been about seven in northern Alberta for example -- five of those were warmer than normal, one was colder and one was sort of in between," he said.

"My sense is the dice are loaded to give you a warmer than normal winter."

However, Phillips cautioned Edmontonians against making any bets on a balmy winter.

"This is Canada after all."