Last season, Urban Meyer and Ohio State shocked the world by running the gauntlet and winning the National Championship. There are sure to be powerhouses in the College Football Playoff again this season, but there always will be a surprise team or two that creeps up into the top 4.
#1 Ohio State (12-0)
If Ohio State’s QB play remains top notch, they should go wire to wire as the number one team in the country.
They will have hiccups and close games (at the Big House against Michigan comes to mind,) but their schedule is relatively easy. The toughest game comes at home against Michigan State on November 21st but that home field advantage should play out. The Big Ten Championship should be interesting against a team like Wisconsin or Nebraska, but the Buckeyes have the talent edge.
#2 Alabama (11-1)
It is a foregone conclusion that the winner of the SEC will be in the playoff, and the SEC can make an argument to have two teams in. Last season, Alabama entered as the number one team in the country but lost to the #4 Buckeyes. It is doubtful Alabama will run through their SEC schedule and championship without any losses, but even one loss should put them in position to win their division and conference. With the national perception of the SEC, Alabama would remain the top ranked one loss team in the country.
#3 Michigan State (11-1)
Michigan State is a sleeper team to find their way into the Playoff and their fate may rest during Week 2 when they play Oregon in East Lansing.
The Spartans have an experienced QB in Connor Cook and a very good defense that should be dominant in the Big Ten. Even with a loss late in the year to Ohio State, Michigan State could creep back into the top 4 since they would not play in a conference championship game. The Spartans likely would not advance over a one loss SEC or Pac-12 school, but if that loss is to last year’s National Champion and the only undefeated team in the country, it would make a great case for them to get their shot.
#4 USC (11-1)
The Pac-12 is strong enough that the winner should be nearly guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Many expect Oregon to be the lead team once again, but with a change at QB and a defense that is still evolving, the Ducks could face more struggles than they are used to. USC showed flashes last season of dominance over teams like Notre Dame and Cal, while they still showed major weakness against rival UCLA. With Cody Kessler showing good development last year, he should take the next step to give the Trojans one of the most exciting offenses in the country. The defense lost some pieces (like top DL Leonard Williams,) but there is a lot of pedigree on that side of the ball. USC is finally getting out of their sanctions and despite coach Steve Sarkisian’s tumultuous offseason, USC could win the Pac-12 and earn their spot.
Ultimately, USC and Michigan State would just not be strong enough to take down powerhouses like Ohio State and Alabama. We could see a rematch of last year’s semifinal with the Crimson Tide going up against the Buckeyes again, and this year the outcome may be different. Ohio State may have actually had more of an advantage than many gave them credit for by having an experienced QB at the helm. The Alabama coaching staff, led by Nick Saban, can really pull apart film and find weaknesses but they were unable to do so with Cardale Jones (and even the Ohio State run game,) so this time around they may be able to put the clamps much tighter on Ohio State. Alabama would likely struggle on offense however as they will have a new starting QB of their own and be reliant on the run game. The National Title game would come down to the defenses. This might be the best defense Nick Saban has put on the field at Alabama with a cohesive unit built not only on speed and athletic ability, but they are a lot more disciplined than in years past. Ohio State has some flashy players in the Front 7, but they may be susceptible down the field. It would be another exciting, close game, but Alabama would come out on top and grab another title.
National Champion: Alabama
Shane Hallam covers college football for About.com Sports. he can be reached on Twitter (@ShanePHallam) or via email (shanephallam@gmail.com)
