- Saturday 08 February 2014
- My Account
- Logout
- Register
- Login
Melting Arctic sea ice means it’s only going to get wetter for northern Europe
Summer downpours across northern Europe linked to variations of jet stream winds caused by loss of sea ice
Steve Connor
Steve Connor is the Science Editor of The Independent. He has won many awards for his journalism, including five-times winner of the prestigious British science writers’ award; the David Perlman Award of the American Geophysical Union; twice commended as specialist journalist of the year in the UK Press Awards; UK health journalist of the year and a special merit award of the European School of Oncology for his investigative journalism. He has a degree in zoology from the University of Oxford and has a special interest in genetics and medical science, human evolution and origins, climate change and the environment.
Tuesday 29 October 2013
The unprecedented run of wet summer weather in recent years could be due in part to the melting sea ice in the Arctic, which appears to be affecting the movement of high-altitude winds over Britain, a study has found.
Scientists believe they have discovered a “causal link” between the loss of Arctic sea ice in summer months and variations in the jet stream that have brought a series of very wet summers to Britain and northern Europe.
The six summers from 2007 to 2012 were all wetter than average and, although none of these individual events were unprecedented in themselves, the sequence of six consecutive wet summers was “extraordinary” over a 34-year period from 1979 to 2012, the study found.
The summer of 2007 was the wettest over northern Europe during this period, and the summers of 2010 and 2011 were the fifth and sixth wettest respectively. In contrast, southern Europe experienced drier-than-usual conditions, it found.
The study, based on computer models of the weather, found that the dramatic loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic over the past decade can cause the jet stream – a high altitude ribbon of fast-moving air – to shift further south, bring stormy, wet weather to Britain and north-west Europe.
“The results of the computer model suggest that melting Arctic sea ice causes a change in the position of the jet stream, and this could help to explain the recent wet summers we have seen,” said James Screen of the University of Exeter, who carried out the research. “The loss of Arctic sea ice tends to shift the jet stream to the south in summer and so increases the risk of wet summers in the UK and north-west Europe.”
He added: “The study suggests that the loss of sea ice not only has an effect on the environment and wildlife of the Arctic region, but has far-reaching consequence for people living in Europe and beyond.”
The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, is the latest to suggest a possible link between the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic and weather extremes around the northern hemisphere. Previous research found that sea-ice loss could be responsible for increasing the winter risk of cold, easterly winds from the Siberian Arctic blowing across north-western Europe, as they did in the winters of 2010 and 2011.
Dr Screen said that there are several possible factors that could have influenced recent wet summers, including the natural decade-long fluctuations in the sea-surface temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean. However, the latest study suggests that sea ice and the jet stream could explain up to a third of the trend towards wetter summers, he said.
The computer model compared weather patterns when the summer sea-ice was relatively extensive, as it was in the 1970s, to recent years, when it had contracted by nearly a half. It found that sea ice alone can influence the direction in which the jet stream tends to flow on its journey from west to east.
When the jet stream veers northwards between Scotland and Iceland, which it tended to do this summer, it usually results in long periods of dry, sunny weather. However, when it shifts south, as it did in the six previous summers, it brings wet, stormy weather over Britain from the Atlantic.
“We have some confidence that the computer models are showing the real thing. The pattern of summer rainfall we see in the computer models, when the only factor we change is the amount of sea ice in the Arctic, is very similar to what we’ve experienced over the past few years,” Dr Screen said.
Previous studies by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Jersey suggested that the loss of sea ice could be affecting the temperature gradients between polar regions and lower latitudes further south, which can influence the speed of the jet stream and so affect how likely it is to veer further north or south.
However, Dr Screen said that the latest study only partly supports this controversial idea. “The jet stream is a complex beast,” he said.
Travel Shop
-
Meet the million-year-olds: Human footprints found in Britain are the oldest ever seen outside of Africa
-
Student takes grinning selfie with dead body, posts it on Instagram
-
UK weather: Worst is yet to come as 'absolute monster' storm Ruth to batter Britain bringing 80mph winds and 35ft waves
-
Miley Cyrus morphs into Madonna for topless German Vogue pose
-
How Japan’s ‘BBC’ is rewriting its role in the Second World War
-
Is Labour panicking over Ukip? Fears growing that Nigel Farage's party could eat into the white working class vote, admits Peter Hain
-
Ukip has done more than any other party to destroy the racist BNP
-
Owen Jones on The Big Benefits Row: The Hopkinsisation of political discourse
-
Six-year-old schoolboy suspended for having Mini Cheddars in his lunchbox has now been expelled
-
'Evidence of a motive' for the crime behind Amanda Knox verdict
-
British birth rate leaps by 18% in a decade
- 1 Bobsledder Johnny Quinn puts his training to good use to smash through bathroom door
- 2 Meet the million-year-olds: Human footprints found in Britain are the oldest ever seen outside of Africa
- 3 New insights into the mystery of autism: Could it be caused at birth by salt in the nerves?
- 4 Provocative new ad aimed at promoting safe sex tells people to 'Come Together' to fight Aids
- 5 How Japan’s ‘BBC’ is rewriting its role in the Second World War
READER SURVEY
Take our short survey for your opportunity to win one of two £100 Amazon vouchers.
New Year, New Career? Get into teaching!
Are you ready to become part of a new generation of high-calibre teachers?
Win a luxury two-night break in York
Plus two East Coast return tickets from London to York and two York Passes
Win flights to Vietnam with Westfield
Westfield is launching a five week celebration of food. To celebrate the programme Westfield, in partnership with Pho, is offering readers the chance to win two return flights to Vietnam.
This is Kenya
Exploring hidden coastal coves and witnessing the greatest wildlife show on earth are just a few of the experiences that Kenya has to offer.
A range of training options to help you get into teaching
Those hoping for a career in the classroom have various routes available – with plenty of practical experience along the way.
Bermuda
Lose yourself in the enchanting scenery and crystal waters of this historic chain of islands – perfect for relaxation and activity alike
What has Europe ever done for you?
Most of us are unaware of what we are entitled to as EU citizens. Find out more - plus your chance to debate Europe's future.
Travel through paradise - Queensland
No matter how you choose to explore it, Queensland is an unforgettable destination – from spectacular beaches to the buzzing state capital of Brisbane.
Enter the latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
The European debate: Reader survey
Take part in our reader survey on European rights. plus your chance to join the debate on Europe's future.
Business videos from commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.
Independent Dating
iJobs General
Commercial Property Solicitor - Cardiff
EXCELLENT SALARY: Austen Lloyd: Commercial Property Solicitor - This is an exc...
Employment Solicitor - Wiltshire
EXCELLENT SALARY: Austen Lloyd: We are seeking a Solicitor with experience in ...
Employment Solicitor - Southampton
EXCELLENT SALARY: Austen Lloyd: We are seeking a Solicitor with experience in ...
Senior Corporate Solicitor - Southampton
EXCELLENT SALARY: Austen Lloyd: We are seeking a Solicitor with experience in ...