Consumers are demanding their entertainment on a variety of platforms, and everywhere you look it seems like everything is streaming. But is that sustainable? There is not only the issue of monetization, but there’s bandwidth too. Can we all stream our favorite shows and music? And can companies make enough money to keep producing the content?
Is Streaming Video Sustainable?
Shay David, chief revenue officer and co-founder of Kaltura, Inc.--an online video management platform for companies such as ABC, Disney, and HBO--says streaming video is "absolutely" a sustainable method of content delivery.
"Not only is it sustainable, but I think it's going to replace many other forms of delivering entertainment; I think the economics are there," says David.
In fact, two trends have converged in recent years to make that happen, according to David. "One is that the cost of delivery was dropping and the other is the audiences are pretty confident in consuming their media as a streaming solution ... I would say 2011 was the first year that the economics of those two met in a way that streaming can actually be sustainable economically. From there on, it becomes a question of creating value added services," he says.
According to a CNNMoney article ("Netflix Tops Apple in Online Video Sales"), the online video business more than doubled in 2011 to $992 million in sales, and IHS iSuppli expects that figure to double again in 2012.
Rich Hull, who advises many of the nation's largest media and entertainment companies on content strategy, finance, and distribution, and who is a former film and TV producer as well as an EContent columnist, also firmly believes in the sustainability of streaming video. "It's not only sustainable [but] it's the first choice for content consumption of anyone under 20. Ignore it at your own peril," he cautions.
David adds that he believes streaming video will become the dominant form of delivery for scripted entertainment "in the coming two years for sure."
According to David, "You look at the US broadcast industry, and depending on how you measure it, it's a $60-80 billion dollar industry." He continues, "I think that over the next decade you are going to start seeing half of that money if not more moved towards delivery over IP-Different forms of subscription ... different forms of delivery on mobile devices. It doesn't necessarily need to be streaming per se. We have seen different models on mobile, for example, of apps that bundle the content and the app in one."
Manny Puentes, CTO at Lijit Networks, Inc.--which says it provides online advertising services, audience analytics, and reader engagement tools to more than 125,000 sites on the "independent web"--also believes streaming video is "totally sustainable." He adds, "The new infrastructures around cloud computing, distribution channels and technology innovations to compress data make it not only sustainable but easier to create and deploy faster and cheaper than ever before. Streaming video is the next television."
Multiple Platforms Are Key
"Any particular streaming platform represents pennies compared to the dollars of traditional distribution," says Hull. "But money gets made in streaming by making your content available on as many platforms as possible at the same time. It's a different mindset for content owners-consumers want everything anywhere."
So who is doing a particularly good job at making their content available on multiple platforms? "The studios. Content owners will license their content to any platform willing to protect it and pay for it," says Hull.
Puentes pointed to a few media companies that are "phenomenal" at making their content available on as many platforms as possible. "YouTube and Hulu are great examples of this. You can find their streaming video on virtually any smartphone device, for Windows, on Mac, and via cellphone providers. In the online advertising space, video distribution on as many platforms as possible is in the roadmap," he says.
Of course, subscriptions can also be a moneymaker. Jennifer McClain, senior product manager of streaming for Compuware Corp.'s Application Performance Management, says the consumer market is willing to pay for access to streaming content--but they have some expectations. "Fewer users are driven to access content illegally as long as the premium content they pay for--or that is paid for through advertising dollars--is delivered to them without significant re-buffering or other performance issues. Advertisers will become more willing to spend money on online streaming platforms as long as those platforms perform well and retain satisfied users," she observes.
McClain "absolutely" believes streaming video is sustainable. However, its sustainability is "dependent on a satisfactory user experience, primarily driven by performance," she says.
"Offering the ability for users to access premium content from many devices and locations is certainly a consumer market demand, and users are very willing to experience advertising as long as the delivery of streaming content performs well," adds McClain, who has more than 10 years of experience in the IT industry, with specialization in the performance of streaming media.
Maintaining Monetization
While Hull believes streaming video will continue to be profitable, he says that "the monetization landscape looks different than we've traditionally been used to." He adds, "In the past, for instance, DVD represented one of just a handful of the giant revenue buckets that made up almost all of a film's revenue. But now, instead of having just a handful of sources that make all the money, we have a much greater number of small revenue buckets.
"Today we see a much more fragmented marketplace, but when taken in the aggregate, [streaming video will] ultimately overpower the revenues from more traditional distribution. And by the way, traditional distribution isn't going anywhere (theatrical, DVD, television, etc.), but it'll just represent one of the many fragmented sources for monetizing content," he continues.
David also feels that streaming video will fare well in the future. "The more audience they can grow the better they make money; if you have good content you can build an audience--there's no question you can make money," he states. "The economics are there ... for the last two years, it's there--the market is there."
In fact, according to David, "most publishers today have more interest from advertisers wanting to monetize video than they can actually have stream. A lot of people are literally returning checks to advertisers ... making money is absolutely not the problem."
Puentes feels that video offers an "extremely rich channel" for advertisers, and it becomes more appealing as technology advances. "Margins may be smaller as streaming video becomes more efficient but the volume will increase making up for lost margins," he says. "Considering the rapid pace of technology for streaming video, I predict that advertisers will soon start to consider streaming video as a distribution channel with time slots in a video."
McClain observes that streaming video needs to "retain satisfied users who are willing to pay for high-performing content or view advertising that pays the overhead of delivering high-performance content."
Consumers Crave More Choice
A recent survey of more than 15,000 Consumer Reports subscribers found that 81% of those who have used a streaming video service in the last month used Netflix, according to a July 26, 2012, PCMag.com article ("Netflix Most Popular, Not Most Satisfying Streaming Video Service").
Yet, despite its popularity, Netflix isn't exactly scoring high marks with consumers in every area. According to the survey, the biggest problem consumers have with Netflix's streaming service is its limited selection of movies, specifically new releases, says the article.
"The real reason the catalogue is limited is because the content producers are slow in licensing it to Netflix," says Tolu Akinola, founder of StreamThing, a service that notifies people when their favorite movies or shows are available on Netflix's streaming service.
While Akinola believes Netflix is "trying their darnedest" to increase their catalogue, the limited selection "is the biggest threat to Netflix and the reason for all the volatility in their stock price. They have to figure this out and soon, hence my prediction that content and distribution will merge at some point unless they are able to achieve total market dominance (much like Apple did with iTunes) in which case they can negotiate with the studios on a more equal footing."
Hull also believes Netflix should expand its offerings if it wants to increase its subscription base. "Netflix has really not focused on smaller studio movies, independent films, or niches, and consequently, consumers are frustrated. For instance, Hispanics are the fastest growing demo in the US and Netflix's domestic Spanish-language offering is very thin. More Hispanics would love to subscribe to Netflix, but Netflix will first need to offer them more content choices," he adds.
Other all-you-can-watch streaming services such as Amazon Prime and Hulu Plus face the same limited selection issues as Netflix, says the PCMag.com piece. In fact, less than 1 in 5 survey respondents said they were "highly satisfied" with the titles available on these services, according to the article.
Netflix alternatives such as VUDU, iTunes, and Amazon Instant Video all scored higher in terms of user satisfaction rate, according to the article.
Though not everyone is satisfied with their Netflix experience, the company recently surpassed Apple to become the top service in terms of online video market share on a revenue basis, as a result of Netflix's increased focus on its unlimited streaming service, according to the CNNMoney article.
In 2011, Netflix had a 44% market share, while Apple-whose iTunes store does not offer a subscription service-saw its share dip to 32.3% of the market (down significantly from 60.8% the previous year), according to CNN. Microsoft, VUDU, and Sony round out the top five list, but each has just single-digit percentage shares of the market's revenue, says the article.
Bandwidth Budget?
So, as consumers continue to consume streaming video, will bandwidth become an issue?
David says no. "There's a lot of dark fiber still; we still are not consuming all the fiber that was put in the ground in the big boom of a few years ago," he observes. "There's still a lot of excess capacity and if you look at what people like Google are doing with their Kansas City fiber infrastructure now-I don't think the infrastructure is going to be a problem."
Google's Kansas City, Mo., initiative is expected to launch this fall and now includes Google Fiber TV-a TV service with its own, fully searchable interface that mixes DVR results with Netflix and YouTube. Customers of the service, which will have ultra-high-speed web connections, will no longer need to wait for videos to buffer or websites to load.
Ultimately, Hull feels that "the bandwidth market must evolve to meet consumers' desire for streaming content, and not the other way around. Any bandwidth provider that tries to bottleneck content consumption to save bandwidth will be out of business in five years."
According to McClain, "The key to handling any bandwidth constraints is offering adaptive streaming that automatically adjusts to an end-user's available bandwidth," she says. "This allows content to be streamed over broadband and mobile networks to an expanding user-base, while adjusting efficiently to any network congestion and providing an optimal end-user experience ... this is all about monitoring and optimizing the performance of streaming content delivery."
Puentes observes that bandwidth is "always a concern," but as CPUs are continually evolving and memory and hardware are getting faster and cheaper, bandwidth expands with it. "Technology to stream videos is advancing just as fast as technologies to handle bandwidth so we are constantly having to come up with ways to solve the bandwidth problem. So, even though bandwidth issues are not new and they aren't going away, it's not a deal-breaker for the future of streaming video-it's just a hurdle."
The way things are currently going, it seems like nothing is going to be a deal-breaker in the relationship between consumers and streaming video.
CNNMoney
Compuware Corp.
Kaltura, Inc.
Lijit Networks, Inc.
PCMag.com
StreamThing