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11:57 |
GlobalPost |
Hi everyone, we will begin in just a couple minutes. Stay tuned... |
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11:58 |
GlobalPost |
Hi there, everybody |
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11:58 |
GlobalPost |
Thanks for joining us today and welcome to GlobalPostMembership’s chat with Jason Rezaian. |
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11:58 |
GlobalPost |
Jason is GlobalPost’s Tehran-based correspondent. |
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11:59 |
GlobalPost |
Jason will be answering questions today about all things Iran. |
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11:59 |
GlobalPost |
Particularly, Jason has been watching the development of the country’s fragile economy and its tenuous relations with the rest of the world — made starkly apparent by the recent release of diplomatic cables by WikiLeaks. |
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11:59 |
GlobalPost |
We want to invite all of you to submit questions to Jason during the chat. |
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11:59 |
GlobalPost |
Let’s get started! |
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11:59 |
GlobalPost |
Are you ready Jason? |
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11:59 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Yes, sir. Hi everyone. Thanks for having me on. Look forward to answering your questions. |
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12:00 |
GlobalPost |
Okay, so to begin |
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12:00 |
GlobalPost |
in several stories you’ve written for GlobalPost, you’ve have talked about the dire state of Iran’s economy. Are the sanctions the main cause of this? |
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12:00 |
Jason-Rezaian |
It's hard to say that they are the main cause. Iran's economy has been in trouble for a long time. |
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12:00 |
bastein |
Hi Jason; Do we have any reason to be optimistic about Iran's future course? |
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12:01 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Mismanagement has been a problem for years, and the economy has shifted into really just being involved in import and isn't exporting or providing for domestic needs. |
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12:02 |
alyosha19 |
Hi Jason; have you written anything about the situation of the Baha'is leaders in Iran, who are still in prison? |
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12:02 |
Jason-Rezaian |
So, with that in mind, sanctions have definitely exacerbated the problems, and I think the situation is probably untenable in the long term# |
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12:03 |
GlobalPost |
Thanks Jason. |
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12:03 |
GlobalPost |
So everyone knows |
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12:03 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think we're going to try to go one at a time on questions, right ? |
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12:03 |
GlobalPost |
We will keep track of your questions as they come and revisit them down the line |
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12:03 |
GlobalPost |
Jason |
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12:03 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Sounds good to me. I will try to get to everything I can. |
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12:03 |
Rafe_Wacman |
Rafe_Wacman: Jason: Has economic hardship affected morale in armed forces, IRGC, or Basij. |
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12:03 |
GlobalPost |
what is the current situation with Iran's subsidies? |
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12:04 |
GlobalPost |
Are they contributing to the economic problems inside the country? |
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12:04 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Well, the subsidy system currently cost the Iranian system $100billion per year, and they've needed to be reformed for a long time. |
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12:05 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Right now there is a lot of speculation, but not a lot of consensus on what to with the system. |
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12:05 |
Jason-Rezaian |
and clearly the fixes they have discusses -- like infusing people's bank accounts with nominal amounts of cash-- probably won't work |
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12:06 |
Jason-Rezaian |
at the same time, though, keeping the price of gas at under .50 for gallon most of the past 30 years has been a recipe for disaster, which they are just woking up to, I think.# |
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12:06 |
GP-ChatHost |
Just a quick note to the audience: This is now a moderated chat, meaning that you will not be able to submit questions/comments directly |
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12:07 |
GP-ChatHost |
Instead, if you would like to ask Jason a question, simply message me GP-ChatHostby pasting the following into the message box: "/msg GP-ChatHostFOLLOWED BY YOUR MESSAGE" without the quotations |
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12:07 |
GlobalPost |
If the subsidies are cut, what do you think the public reaction will be? How will this play out on the streets? |
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12:07 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Well, I think there plan is to cut them over a period of time and test the waters a bit. The public reaction will be what you'd imagine... |
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12:08 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Any time you take stuff away from people that they think is they're right they are going get upset. |
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12:08 |
Jason-Rezaian |
and the regime has made the mistake of touting these subsidies for years. |
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12:08 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Once cheap gas is gone, for example, they really don't have much of a story to sell anymore.# |
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12:08 |
GlobalPost |
You’ve also written about growing environmental problem in Tehran. What kind of effect is this having on the people there? Is this adding to the tension? |
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12:09 |
Jason-Rezaian |
It's adding to tension, and it's also landing people in hospitals. |
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12:10 |
Jason-Rezaian |
i have traveled to some pretty polluted places, and Tehran has long been one of the most polluted cities in the world, and over the past 3 weeks or so it has become almost unbearable. |
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12:10 |
Jason-Rezaian |
And there is very little relief in site. |
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12:10 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Rumours abound at the cause of the pollution, but there are few solutions being offered. At least not any realistic ones. |
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12:11 |
GP-ChatHost |
Hi Jason, here is a great question from our audience:Bastein: Hi Jason; Do we have any reason to be optimistic about Iran's future course? |
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12:12 |
GP-ChatHost |
Another reminder to the audience, if you would like to ask Jason a question, simply message me GP-ChatHostby pasting the following into the message box: "/msg GP-ChatHostFOLLOWED BY YOUR MESSAGE" without the quotations |
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12:12 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think we have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Iran's future, but we have to look it in terms of partnering with Iran, and I think there's a ways to go before either the US or Iran will be ready to do that....But I honestly think it's closer than most will expect.# |
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12:13 |
GlobalPost |
During the six-party talks this week, it seemed Iran was willing to consider a compromise on the nuclear issue. Is that true? Why the change in position? |
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12:14 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Actually I don't think it's a real change in their position. They've said all along that they aren't willing to compromise on their right to enrich. That leaves a lot of room for negotiation. |
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12:15 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I've read some reaction to the talks that the "Iranians weren't serious," however, if we go back and look at the history of these talks, especially the ones this past spring, I think both sides are responsible for the breakdowns. |
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12:16 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I firmly believe that Iran wants a deal, and so does the US. It's just the both have different bottomlines, and we haven't figured out exactly what those are yet.# |
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12:16 |
GP-ChatHost |
That is really interesting. We have another great question from the audience: ReferenceSeete : I've read that some political scientists think Iran and the USA could be productive allies if the hotheaded rhetoric got out of the way. Treating Iran along the lines of a regional hegemon such as Brazil or China. What do you think of this idea? |
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12:17 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think whether we like it or not (and clearly we don't) Iran is the main regional force, politically, culturally and for a long time as trade partner for most countries in the region. |
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12:18 |
Jason-Rezaian |
The US has decided to ignore that for a long time... If we take out the hotheaded rhetoric on both sides, I think we'd have a decent shot at working together on a great number of issues. |
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12:18 |
Jason-Rezaian |
And perhaps most importantly, find a great potential trade partner, hungry for our goods and ideas.# |
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12:19 |
GlobalPost |
So, Jason, what's the hold up? Why can't the US and Iran, if the both would benefit from better relations, do away with the rhetoric and move on? |
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12:19 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think it has much more to do with domestic politics in both countries than it does with the executive branches of both. |
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12:20 |
Jason-Rezaian |
One must understand that the rhetoric coming from Tehran is aimed at a local Iranian, and also a broad Muslim audience. |
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12:20 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Clearly that doesn't help relations at all. |
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12:21 |
Jason-Rezaian |
But if we look at the situation there are plenty of ways to open up. |
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12:21 |
Jason-Rezaian |
We should remember that throughout the entire Soviet era we maintained diplomatic relations with Moscow. |
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12:21 |
Jason-Rezaian |
We need to start somewhere.# |
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12:22 |
GlobalPost |
I wanted to talk a bit about the WikiLeaks release, since that has been in the news of late. |
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12:22 |
GlobalPost |
The WikiLeaks revelations seem to confirm what the Iranian leadership has always claimed — that the whole world is trying to unseat it. What has been the reaction from the Iranian leadership and the public on the ground? |
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12:22 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Sure |
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12:22 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Well, as a site Wikileaks is blocked, and many stories featuring Wikileak have also been blocked. |
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12:23 |
Jason-Rezaian |
For the first time yesterday I saw an article about Julian Assange in a local paper. |
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12:23 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Iran's official reaction has been that 1. we don't think it's a big deal. |
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12:23 |
Jason-Rezaian |
2. it's a plot. |
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12:23 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Ultimately, though, I think it confirms what the hardline clerics say |
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12:24 |
Jason-Rezaian |
and that's too bad... |
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12:24 |
Jason-Rezaian |
It also scares the heck out of the rest of the leadership who believes they've been building solid relations with their Arab neighbors. |
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12:25 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think also it should be pointed out that the Iranian leadership and the idea of Islamic Republic play very well with average Arab people and that also scares the leaders of those countries, especially the ones with large Shi'a populations.# |
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12:25 |
GlobalPost |
As our time begins to wind down, I want to remind everyone to send in any last questions they might have. |
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12:26 |
GlobalPost |
In the meantime, out of curiosity... |
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12:26 |
GlobalPost |
we hear a lot about web censorship in Iran |
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12:26 |
GlobalPost |
you just mentioned that WikiLeaks was largely unavailable to the Iranian public |
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12:26 |
GlobalPost |
Yet we are talking right now without a problem |
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12:26 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Right. Well, the Internet is controlled to a degree here in Iran |
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12:27 |
Jason-Rezaian |
and much content is "prohibited" |
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12:27 |
Jason-Rezaian |
but Iranians have figured out many ways around these blocks, especially by using proxy servers. |
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12:27 |
GP-ChatHost |
Just another reminder: if you would like to ask Jason a question, simply message me GP-ChatHostby pasting the following into the message box: "/msg GP-ChatHostFOLLOWED BY YOUR MESSAGE" without the quotations |
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12:28 |
GlobalPost |
What is the current state of web and media censorship in Iran? |
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12:28 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think that's the main thing to understand, sites are illegal or blocked but people still access them... If you can wrap your head around that, you will understand a lot about Iranian society. |
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12:29 |
Jason-Rezaian |
I think that web censorship will naturally decrease as the Internet becomes more integral to the Iranian economy. |
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12:29 |
Jason-Rezaian |
And this is happening already; many more ecommerce sites all the time. |
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12:29 |
Jason-Rezaian |
One more reason that isolating Iran probably goes against the US' long term interests in seeing a more open Iranian society.# |
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12:30 |
GlobalPost |
Okay, thanks Jason! Unless there are any last questions I think we are going to wrap up. |
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12:31 |
Jason-Rezaian |
Thanks so much guys. I appreciate all your questions. |
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12:31 |
GlobalPost |
Thank you everyone for joining us today and thanks so much Jason for your insights. |
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12:31 |
Jason-Rezaian |
It's been a pleasure. |
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12:32 |
GP-ChatHost |
Thank you Jason and thanks to all those who participated in the Chat. We hope you join us again next time! |
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12:32 |
GP-ChatHost |
To read the chat transcript or for more information about web chats or GlobalPostMembership, please visit: http://www.globalpost.com/home/passport |
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12:32 |
GP-ChatHost |
Thanks again and have a wonderful day! |