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September 23, 2011, 10:24 am

Wildlife Confidential

The headline of this post is the name for a book (and perhaps documentary) I’ve wanted to create for years, given my decade-long fascination with camera traps, which have become a valuable tool in conservation biology (check this Google Scholar search for research using camera traps).

My favorite places to track such imagery now are Smithsonian Wild, a Web site with a searchable gallery of more than 200,000 images, and the blog and YouTube channel of Eyes on Leuser, a camera-trapping project monitoring wildlife in the Leuser ecosystem of northern Sumatra, Indonesia. (Mongabay led me to the Leuser imagery.) Here’s the August roundup, including close encounters with a crested serpent eagle, a curious tiger and a muddy Eurasian pig:

July’s roundup has a great moment with a family of pig-tailed macaques and night imagery of a moon rat: Read more…


September 22, 2011, 6:00 pm

Italy’s Troubling Earthquake Prosecutions

11:09 p.m. | Updated below |
You may be aware of the effort under way in Italy to convict six scientists and a public official for manslaughter for statements they made about the improbability of a big earthquake as low-level tremors unnerved citizens in the Abruzzo region of central Italy in late March 2009. On April 6, the medieval town of L’Aquila was devastated by a 6.3-magnitude earthquake.

L'Aquila earthquakeMassimiliano Schiazza/European Pressphoto Agency Photographs of the 2009 earthquake in the Abruzzo region of Italy.

One can only hope that a decision earlier this week to adjourn the trial until October 1 will give the prosecution time to reconsider the merits of what amounts to a medieval-style attack on science.

The criminal case (and lawsuit seeking $66 million) centers on an assessment of quake risk made by Italy’s Commission of Grand Risks. A recent BBC report provides a good review of the details, and — to my mind — a convincing picture of bitter citizens and ineffectual local officials looking in the wrong place for wrongdoing.

In the BBC report, the complaint was summarized by a local investigator, Inspector Lorenzo Cavallo, this way: Read more…


September 22, 2011, 1:31 pm

Book Report: Oil’s Long Goodbye

The Quest

Michael Levi, who analyzes energy, security and climate issues for the Council on Foreign Relations, is among the first of my contacts on fossil fuel trends to plow through all 804 pages of “The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World.” This is the new book on humanity’s energy sources and choices by Daniel Yergin, who gained fame and influence for his Pulitzer-winning 1991 account of the history of oil, “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power” (1991).  (“The Quest” was praised by Dwight Garner in The Times earlier this week).

oil well in texasMichael Stravato for The New York Times An oil drilling site near Big Wells, Tex. More Photos »

I asked Levi if he could offer a “Book Report” to start a conversation here on Yergin’s arguments, which have made the energy analyst a popular target of people foreseeing turmoil from “peak oil.” (Here’s a reasoned criticism from John C. K. Daly, and an unreasonable assault on Yergin from Christopher Mims.) Certainly the recent burst of new exploration and development of oil fields, both offshore and inland — largely driven by higher oil prices — challenges those seeing (or seeking) an early end to the oil age. As it happens, Levi posted a piece on “Peak Oil and Faith-Based Energy Debates” just yesterday.

Here’s his view of “The Quest”: Read more…


September 21, 2011, 2:58 pm

Updates on Greenland’s Ice

New research on the dynamics of Greenland’s ice sheets complicates efforts to forecast sea level rise in this century, as the Green Blog reports. Expanding fields of crevasses appear to be limiting the flow of water to the base of the ice through tube-like moulins. That flow has been thought to ease the seaward movement of the ice over bedrock. But the crevasses also warm the ice as liquid water descends deep inside the frozen mass, with that process also potentially speeding its flow. This diagram shows the two types of plumbing:

greenland ice melting

In the meantime, the high recent rate of ice loss in Greenland, according to other new research, has largely continued.

I’ve queried a batch of researchers focused on ice sheets and sea level on these findings, and asked them how their views of sea level changes in a warming world have evolved since the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I’ll be posting their thoughts soon (I’m tied up teaching today).

Unfortunately, the tough scientific work to clarify ice and sea trends and dynamics has largely been obscured online by coverage focused on an error on Greenland ice loss that many polar scientists say made it into the new edition of the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World (that’s the British Times, just to be clear). Of even greater concern were unsubstantiated assertions made by the atlas’s publisher, HarperCollins (which, while defending its atlas, has since apologized for the news release).

The publisher’s overstatements created ample fodder for critics of warnings about human-driven climate change and, fortunately, were also quickly pointed out by two of the leading scientific teams tracking polar change, the Scott Polar Research Institute in Britain and the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United States.


September 21, 2011, 10:27 am

Unheeded Tornado Warnings Just One Lesson from Joplin

Joplin tornadoPatrick Fallon for The New York Times Tom Hatfield and a friend, Bonnie McMullen, outside Mr. Hatfield’s mother’s home, which was destroyed by the tornado that hit Joplin, Mo.

The National Weather Service published a detailed and valuable report yesterday examining factors contributing to the extraordinary loss of life in Joplin, Mo., after a great swath of the community was shredded by a tornado at the top of the enhanced Fujita scale of destructiveness.

I sought an appraisal of the report, and the catastrophe, from two disaster economists who’ve become vital sources on losses from extreme storms, Kevin M. Simmons of Austin College and Daniel Sutter of Troy University. Along with their other work, they are the authors of a valuable resource, “Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes.”

Their assessment differs somewhat from news accounts and news releases focused on disregarded warnings. They note, for example, that when Joplin’s horrific death count is assessed as “fatalities per number of buildings damaged or destroyed” the death rate is not markedly different than the average losses in twisters at the top of the scale in recent decades. That means that many people who did the right thing, seeking shelter indoors, were simply terribly unlucky. The authors discuss challenges in issuing warnings for rare, but devastating, events, too. But it’s important to consider all the factors that put so many people in harm’s way.

Here’s the analysis from Simmons and Sutter (I added bold face highlights): Read more…


September 20, 2011, 5:13 pm

A ‘Climate Reality’ Presenter Weighs Gore Project

Katie Carpenter, Everwild MediaAs part of the 24-hour webcast of the Climate Reality Project, Katie Carpenter (right) participated in a panel discussion of impacts of climate change in Hawaii.

Katie Carpenter, a veteran producer of environmental documentaries (I first crossed paths with her while writing on deforestation in the Amazon in the late 1980s), was one of the presenters in the 24 Hours of Reality climate web-athon organized by former Vice President Al Gore. (Here’s his summary presentation.)

She got in touch after reading my piece assessing the project. Below, she offers an inside view of the operation and reflects on outcomes in a “Your Dot” contribution — a feature created to put some extra focus on non-anonymous contributions in hopes of fostering constructive discourse. (A longer version is posted on Treehugger.)

I’ll feature a constructive reader critique of Gore’s approach to climate change, as well, if one should be offered. I’ll be particularly rigorous in rejecting comments that are anonymous and not substantive. (Bryan Walsh has assessed the event for Time Magazine.)

Here’s Carpenter: Read more…


September 20, 2011, 12:36 pm

Growing Pains in Maturing Brains and Global Networks

partyDennis W. Ho for The New York Times Young people party.

David Dobbs’ cover story in the October issue of National Geographic is a fascinating exploration of the science illuminating how the brain’s neuronal wiring evolves as adolescence crests. The reboot turns a “primal teen” (the title of a marvelous book by my colleague Barbara Strauch) into a more reflective, reasoning adult — at least most of the time.

Here’s a core line from Dobbs:

When this development proceeds normally, we get better at balancing impulse, desire, goals, self-interest, rules, ethics, and even altruism, generating behavior that is more complex and, sometimes at least, more sensible. But at times, and especially at first, the brain does this work clumsily. It’s hard to get all those new cogs to mesh.

I can’t help thinking how that process appears to be echoed in what’s happening with humanity writ large right now — even down to the transitional clumsiness. Read more…


September 19, 2011, 6:10 pm

From the Fire Hose: Fukushima Examined; Extreme Weather Probed

Here are a couple of important reads snagged from the nonstop fire hose of news:

Japan’s Calamity

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published a special package of reports on issues related to the earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear leaks that hammered Japan just over six months ago. They’re worth exploring regardless of your stance on nuclear power. Among the pieces are:

- The myth of safety, the reality of geoscience.

- Deconstructing the zero-risk mindset: The lessons and future responsibilities for a post-Fukushima nuclear Japan.

- The radiological and psychological consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi accident.

- Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima: An analysis of traditional and new media coverage of nuclear accidents and radiation.

Hurricane IreneChang W. Lee/The New York Times Strong wind, heavy rain and surging waves as Hurricane Irene struck the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Gauging Extremes

The journal Nature has published a helpful update on scientists’ efforts to narrow one of the biggest gaps in climate science — the inability to reliably gauge the role of greenhouse-driven warming in determining the intensity of the kinds of extreme climate events that matter most to societies — from hurricanes to heat waves.

There’s a news article by Quirin Schiermeier, one of the best journalists tracking climate science, and an accompanying editorial, both of which are outside the journal’s subscription wall and well worth reading.

There’s much more here, of course, on this issue.


September 19, 2011, 12:18 pm

Cosmic Breitbart Climate Blunder

Sept. 22, 6:45 p.m. | Updated below |
Earlier this month, I noticed a glaring error in an astonishingly distorted Sept. 6 piece on climate, clouds and cosmic rays on Andrew Breitbart’s Big Government blog. There’s been plenty of overheated gushing on this subject by climate naysayers in recent weeks, triggered by an important, but heavily over-interpreted, experiment. But this piece stands out.

The author, Chriss W. Street, a self-described “nationally recognized financial writer,” led the piece with this breathless pair of sentences:

Nature Journal of Science, ranked as the world’s most cited scientific periodical, has just published the definitive study on Global Warming that proves the dominant controller of temperatures in the Earth’s atmosphere is due to galactic cosmic rays and the sun, rather than by man. One of the report’s authors, Professor Jyrki Kauppinen, summed up his conclusions regarding the potential for man-made Global Warming: “I think it is such a blatant falsification.”

The glaring problem, amid many broader problems, was that Jyrki Kauppinen is not one of the paper’s 63 authors, as I noted in an item I submitted to Mediabugs, a Web site devoted to correcting errors in media reports of all kinds.

This Big Government glitch is particularly notable given that on August 29, the main Breitbart news blog ran a wire story in which one of the paper’s actual authors explained the tentative nature of the results this way:

“Anyone who believes that we see an enhancement of clouds through cosmic rays is moving too fast,” Urs Baltensperger, head of atmospheric chemistry at the Paul Scherrer Institut in Villigen, Switzerland, said.

Mark Follman, one of the founders of Mediabugs, wrote a piece for Mother Jones this morning with more background on the cosmic ray post, noting that repeated attempts to correct the error, so far, have been met by silence.

Follman asked me to offer my deconstruction of this kind of distorting opportunism. Here’s the relevant section of his post:

According to Revkin, the Big Government piece is a classic example of what could be called “single-study syndrome,” which tends to turn up whenever a political agenda is threatened or supported by a specific line of scientific inquiry. “Some new finding, however tentative, gets highlighted while the broader suite of research on a tough subject is downplayed or ignored,” Revkin told me in an email. “And few questions are tougher than clarifying the role of clouds in climate change.” The appetite for headline-grabbing conclusions, he said, gives rise to fast-and-loose science coverage that torques public discourse until it’s mainly hyperbole.

I also noted that the media more generally, through the eternal quest for the “front-page thought,” amplify this process.

It’s no wonder that, despite occasional shifts in polls and deeply polarized small factions at the edges of climate discourse (nourished by this kind of material), the public largely remains disengaged on the issue.

Sept. 22, 6:34 p.m. | Updates |

Big Government finally responded to Mediabug with an amusing note added to its piece acknowledging what it termed a “minor citation error.

Single-study syndrome, which I’ve criticized when it afflicts the green end of the climate spectrum, is in fine form on the fossil side, as well. Note the celebratory cosmic certainty of Larry Bell, James “It’s the Sun, Stupid” Delingpole and Lawrence Solomon.


September 16, 2011, 6:27 pm

Obama Presses Iceland Over Fin Whale Hunt

On Thursday, President Obama ordered government agencies to ramp up pressure on Iceland to end its slaughter of endangered fin whales, the second largest whale species. But the president stopped short of imposing trade sanctions. He issued a Message to Congress with the details, including this passage:

Of particular concern to the United States, Iceland harvested 125 endangered fin whales in 2009 and 148 in 2010, a significant increase from the total of 7 fin whales it commercially harvested between 1987 and 2007.

This is what that harvest looks like (video from Greenpeace):

There are thought to be around 30,000 of these giants, the second largest whale species, in the North Atlantic.

I was lucky enough to see a few in 2004, while writing about humanity’s evolving relationship with whales from the vantage point of Tadoussac, Quebec. — a spot where whales centuries ago were slaughtered on the beach but where crowds now gather on the rocks to watch spouting blue, sperm, minke and other whale species feeding. Here’s one photo from that visit: Read more…


About Dot Earth

Andrew C. Revkin on Climate Change

By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today. Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life. In Dot Earth, which recently moved from the news side of The Times to the Opinion section, Andrew C. Revkin examines efforts to balance human affairs with the planet’s limits. Conceived in part with support from a John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship, Dot Earth tracks relevant developments from suburbia to Siberia. The blog is an interactive exploration of trends and ideas with readers and experts.

On the Dot

Energy
New Options Needed

wind powerAccess to cheap energy underpins modern societies. Finding enough to fuel industrialized economies and pull developing countries out of poverty without overheating the climate is a central challenge of the 21st century.

Climate
The Arctic in Transition

arctic meltEnshrined in history as an untouchable frontier, the Arctic is being transformed by significant warming, a rising thirst for oil and gas, and international tussles over shipping routes and seabed resources.

Society
Slow Drips, Hard Knocks

water troubles Human advancement can be aided by curbing everyday losses like the millions of avoidable deaths from indoor smoke and tainted water, and by increasing resilience in the face of predictable calamities like earthquakes and drought.

Biology
Life, Wild and Managed

wildlifeEarth’s veneer of millions of plant and animal species is a vital resource that will need careful tending as human populations and their demands for land, protein and fuels grow.

Slide Show

pollution
A Planet in Flux

Andrew C. Revkin began exploring the human impact on the environment nearly 30 years ago. An early stop was Papeete, Tahiti. This narrated slide show describes his extensive travels.

Video

revking at the north pole
Dot Earth on YouTube

Many of the videos featured here can be found on Andrew Revkin’s channel on YouTube. Recent reader favorites:

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