Open Mind

There’s a lot more misinformation in Joe D’Aleo’s post at WUWT about the decline of Arctic sea ice than just the fake portrayal of Arctic regional temperature highlighted in the last post.

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It’s so predictable. Arctic sea ice came close to breaking the 2007 record for decline in some records, and did break the record in some, so the deniers are in “damage control” mode, out in force saying it’s just natural variation. And one of the most misleading of all comes from Joe D’Aleo on Anthony Watts’ blog.

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Fred Singer is on tour denying global warming. The “evidence” he offers is one giant red herring after another.

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I watched much of the Climate Reality broadcast. It was excellent. Al Gore is not a scientist, and he’s not perfect, but he is the driving force behind this project and probably the single individual doing the most to raise awareness about this, the most important issue facing the world. Good job Al.

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If things have seemed a bit slow lately, it’s because I’ve been very busy. Among other things, there’s a paper in preparation based on this post — but it should be submitted soon, and I’ll post a link to a preview as soon as possible.

In the meantime, just a few notes. Arctic sea ice hit an all-time low extent according to the University of Bremen, but not quite according to NSIDC and JAXA. It did break the all-time low record for ice area according to Cryosphere today, and for ice volume according to PIOMAS. Record-breaker or no, this much is clear: the trend continues. And the trend is: death spiral.

Also, the Rabett continues his excellent series on the idiotic witch-hunt against Charles Monnett, one which is turning into an extremely serious embarrassment for the witch-hunters. His series is extremely important, and I urge you all both to support his continued blogging on this issue, and to spread the word about the politically motivated harrassment of a scientist, for no other reason than his exposing evidence of the impact of global warming on the environment.

The Rabett has an interesting post about a paper that appeared recently in Climate of the Past on temperature trends in data measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO). Most of us are very familiar with the data on CO₂ concentration from Mauna Loa, but I didn’t know there’s also temperature data from the same location since 1977. Interestingly, the data are not just monthly, not just daily, they’re hourly, and because MLO is an atmospheric observatory, the data were recorded not just to the nearest whole degree, but to the nearest 0.1 deg.C.

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Now that August numbers for sea ice area and extent are available from NSIDC, let’s update the prediction of the upcoming September value.

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Let’s have a little fun, and predict the global average temperature (land+ocean) for the next few months. We’ll base the prediction on GISS data, so this will be a prediction for the upcoming temperature according to GISS.

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