Five reasons Canada’s GDP unexpectedly shrank

 

 
 
 

After growth of 0.5% in January, new data from Statistics Canada showed that Canadian gross domestic product shrank unexpectedly in February for the first time in five months.

While analysts had expected GDP to be flat for the month, data showed it took a dip of 0.2%, dragged down by manufacturing and wholesale trade.

But there were other weak points as well. Below, we take a look at what held back economic growth for the month of February.

Weak trade

• The drop in the goods sector and in industries like manufacturing and wholesale trade is directly tied to a weak trade story.

• “Areas closely tied to international trade exerted the largest drag on economic growth in the month,” Diana Petramala, economist at TD Economics, said in a note. “February’s weak performance was tied to a 1.6% and 1.0% decline in manufacturing and wholesale output respectively. Not unrelated to the weak trade story, transportation and warehousing also declined a significant 0.7%.”

U.S. economy

• Directly tied to weak trade was the dull economic performance of Canada’s biggest trading partner, the U.S., in the first quarter.

• “Much of the weakness in Canadian economic activity in February can be explained by the sharp slowdown in U.S. real GDP growth in the first quarter of this year,” Ms. Petramala said.

Strong Canadian dollar

• The strength of the Canadian dollar, although not nearly as strong in February as it is now, contributed to some of the weak data.

• Economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes Woods of Scotia Capital, however, point out that the Canadian dollar’s strength is a lagged effect, and its true damage to Canadian economic growth will be felt later on.

Service sector

• The service sector remained flat month-over-month in February, so it did not directly contribute to lower GDP — but didn’t help boost it either.

• Wholesale trade, public administration and transportation — all components of the service sector — saw declines for the month.

• Weakness however was offset by stronger retail trade, which grew 0.6%, and stroner professional and financial services, which grew 0.3% and 0.2% month-over-month, respectively.

Goods sector

• The goods sector, which includes industries that turn raw goods into products that can be handled or stored, contracted 0.6% in February.

• Manufacturing weakness factored in here, dropping 1.6% month-over-month.

• Other weak industries included agriculture, industrial production and utilities.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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