Comments
Debate expectations in a good place for GB and Clegg
2010-02-26 10:21:53
In a piece for The Times earlier this week, about how social networking was changing the way many people consume media and interact with the political debate, I referred to the TV debates between the party leaders, which will be a genuinely new development in the forthcoming campaign.
I said the relative spending power of the parties, so far as the debates were concerned, would be irrelevant. So would the millions of words of hype. All that mattered was the performance of the leaders and the reactions of the public watching live, then talking to each other.
If I may add a few more words to the hype, I would like to draw attention to the Telegraph's coverage of its own poll today.
The state of the parties standing confirms the recent narrowing of the gap between the Tories and Labour. But it is a reference to the TV debates that interests me. I quote here not from the paper itself but from Labour's media monitoring department's account of it in their report on the morning papers. 'Despite an advertising blitz, an attempted Labour coup to remove the PM & the desperate state of the economy Labour has managed to close the gap. Conservative strategists hope that the turmoil created by allegations of bullying against GB coupled with Darling's unexpectedly forthright attack on the PM will have a beneficial impact in the polls over the coming days. The poll, which was conducted this week, suggests that there was no immediate effect from the bullying accusations. Cameron will also take comfort from the news that 60% of voters believe the television election debates will play an important part in helping them decide which way to vote. The Conservative leader is widely expected to perform the best in the first ever British general election debates. 53% think Cameron will gain most public support as a result of the three live broadcasts, compared to 20% for GB & 12% Clegg.'
I highlight the words 'Cameron will also take comfort' to underline the widespread media expectation, underlined by the figures in the poll, that the Tory leader will outperform GB in these debates, which today's survey, rightly I think, suggests will be an important factor in determining the final election outcome.
I suppose it gives us some inkling of the volume of hype the debates will generate that pollsters are asking for views on who will win this far off.
But the 'Cameron sure to win' mindset could turn out to be a problem for him. It is generally acknowledged that he is a better communicator than many of his predecessors, like Iain Duncan-Smith and Michael Howard. That would not be hard. It is also widely acknowledged - not least by GB - that the Prime Minister is not totally at ease with all the realities of operating in topflight politics in the media age.
But these debates will be more than a sparring of soundbites. They will require substance, policy detail, and real arguments about the future direction of the country. And that combination may well play to GB's strengths rather than DC's. The events are also a huge bonus for Nick Clegg, who remains little known outside those who follow closely the ins and outs of the political debate.
So far from taking comfort from the expectations on the debates, I think Team Dave should worry about them. One of the reasons the poll gap has narrowed is that people are beginning to think there is not much substance to the Tory leader, and not much depth to his team. A polished performance, from a pure communications perspective, will not on its own help him in the debates. Indeed it could exacerbate the sense that PR is all he really cares about, and that he lacks the sense of mission for the country that a would-be PM must have.
Elsewhere in the polling jungle today, a survey of Tory members shows them urging a rightward lurch focusing on immigration, as the hopeless Howard campaign did last time. This survey too is good news for Labour. It shows up another of the reasons why Cameron has stalled - he talks a lot about how the Party has changed, but scratch beneath the surface a little, and it's pretty much the same old Tory Party.
And more cheering survey fare from The Times which reports on a poll of 100 Tory candidates in winnable seats who named Mrs Thatcher as the runaway first choice as political hero, ahead of Sir Winston Churchill. William Wilberforce and Benjamin Disraeli. Thatcher's world view is also evident when likely new MPs are asked about the European Union. Two candidates nominated Cameron as their political hero, whilst five named William Hague, including one whose admiration did not extend to knowing how to spell his name.
All in all, rather a cheering media monitoring report this morning. And in the FT, the one actual paper I've read, nice to see the word 'wibbly-wobbliness' entering the language, from the lips of Peter Mandelson, on the subject of Mr Cameron.
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School speech the latest source of right-wing frothing at ObamaPublish date: 2009-09-05 08:23:02
More horse's mouth, less Beeb blah pleasePublish date: 2009-09-04 22:49:20
Real respect for sport can be Olympic legacyPublish date: 2009-09-04 09:27:34
First ladies watch out for Japanese bombshellPublish date: 2009-09-03 10:47:19
TV debate - good idea in theory, but ...Publish date: 2009-09-02 15:37:43
'No worries' - the new response to thanksPublish date: 2009-09-01 12:25:19
Tremors of Japanese political earthquake will be felt far and widePublish date: 2009-08-30 15:50:54
Pressure on Ed Miliband can help get a climate change dealPublish date: 2009-08-28 13:39:08
Why Tories and media cannot stomach GCSE success storyPublish date: 2009-08-27 16:03:34
Exposing the absurdity of Chris GraylingPublish date: 2009-08-26 13:20:19
Joy and beauty and a night of magicPublish date: 2009-08-20 10:55:11
Twitter NHS backlash good for ObamaPublish date: 2009-08-14 15:44:49
A lifetime's ambition fulfilledPublish date: 2009-08-08 16:59:02
Breaking the blog-a-day spell as warm up to holidayPublish date: 2009-07-20 17:44:49
No hiding place from Twitter, me on the bike, JP in DCPublish date: 2009-07-17 18:17:09
At last - something Obama cannot do wellPublish date: 2009-07-16 10:05:47
Will MPs take the lead in the debate on euthanasia?Publish date: 2009-07-15 12:30:01
Berlin brothel leads the way to a greener worldPublish date: 2009-07-14 10:57:25
A time for GB to explain the whole picturePublish date: 2009-07-13 12:37:54
All hail Monty, Jimmy and Collie!Publish date: 2009-07-12 20:06:36
First triathlon of the summer for me, education award for FionaPublish date: 2009-07-12 09:43:06
Of Burnley's friendly and Obama's wandering eyePublish date: 2009-07-11 12:38:52
Two great early morning momentsPublish date: 2009-07-10 10:27:07
Cameron had better be sure he's rightPublish date: 2009-07-09 11:06:22
Guardian scoop has big questions for press, cops and CameronPublish date: 2009-07-08 20:40:54
Divisive legend: Lance ArmstrongPublish date: 2009-07-07 10:38:23
First hug a hoodie, now grab a gayPublish date: 2009-07-06 12:57:09
Mail on Scumday's wonderful account of Lansley's kipperdomPublish date: 2009-07-05 13:14:51
Ecclestone undermines his own success with alarming views on HitlerPublish date: 2009-07-04 14:04:04
When the conmen move more quickly than the councilPublish date: 2009-07-03 10:19:52
Andrew Lansley done up like a kipperPublish date: 2009-07-02 10:10:52
A day spent interviewing footballers, then being interviewed by a transvestite comedianPublish date: 2009-07-01 14:47:40
When the power of black eyes fadesPublish date: 2009-06-30 09:24:59
Farewell to Henry HodgePublish date: 2009-06-29 20:41:12
Honouring the power of sport to do goodPublish date: 2009-06-29 14:49:42
Andy Murray is a winner. Is that why some Brits don't like him?Publish date: 2009-06-28 09:19:20
New Parliament will look very different. The younger the betterPublish date: 2009-06-27 17:34:26
Two nice surprises, sad end to dayPublish date: 2009-06-26 09:16:33
Apology from the Spectator on Iraq boosts Henry Hodge fundPublish date: 2009-06-25 19:57:26
Thanks to Mr Harper on mental health, rebuttal of Mr Hague on IraqPublish date: 2009-06-24 23:47:54
Glad to find Eric Cantona in a quiet cinema ...Publish date: 2009-06-24 00:46:23
By Dave's friends shall we know him?Publish date: 2009-06-23 11:30:20
The Speaker has to balance tradition and change - but defend ParliamentPublish date: 2009-06-22 11:58:44
Less a blog than an apology for not having done onePublish date: 2009-06-21 20:07:43
The day Lions skipper Paul O'Connell took my trousers downPublish date: 2009-06-20 11:48:28
On the Iraq inquiry, Independent article wrongPublish date: 2009-06-19 20:28:24
Thank you to three readers, now please get involvedPublish date: 2009-06-19 09:13:35
A tribute to a lovely manPublish date: 2009-06-18 17:19:40
Bad times in Belfast, great day for Burnley, odd statement from Ed BallsPublish date: 2009-06-18 10:04:47
A plea for five-figure cyber-donationsPublish date: 2009-06-17 07:40:42
On two inquiriesPublish date: 2009-06-16 08:57:39
From India to Iran to Labour witPublish date: 2009-06-15 10:13:17
Memories of Princess DianaPublish date: 2009-06-14 09:54:55
A House Divided?Publish date: 2009-06-13 02:53:47
A humbling NHS experience, a media row and a good GB speechPublish date: 2009-06-12 10:48:46
Psychiatrists heading for relegation in 'disease prestige' league tablePublish date: 2009-06-11 10:25:35
The shrinks awaitPublish date: 2009-06-10 09:44:16
As Obama fights for healthcare, let's celebrate the record herePublish date: 2009-06-09 12:52:55
Anger at BNP seats must be turned into activismPublish date: 2009-06-08 14:11:10
Can today be as frenzied as Friday?Publish date: 2009-06-07 10:31:04
Take heart from a win in LambethPublish date: 2009-06-06 18:46:40
JP is right there was no proper campaign but Tories still weakPublish date: 2009-06-05 13:47:20
Do we care more about the NHS or moats?Publish date: 2009-06-04 00:21:23
Guardian of social justice or attention-seeker?Publish date: 2009-06-03 10:19:33
Who says Britain can't deliver the best?Publish date: 2009-06-02 08:08:38
Mainstream has a duty to vote against BNPPublish date: 2009-06-01 11:03:29
Let Diversity inspire a vote against the hate-filled BNPPublish date: 2009-05-31 12:24:20
White House whack at UK media well-timed but sure to be ignoredPublish date: 2009-05-30 13:41:00
Elvis has a plan to make MPs King againPublish date: 2009-05-29 12:09:44
At least there's a campaign on in ItalyPublish date: 2009-05-28 09:04:32
A blow to gay rights and a boost for Cameron's short-termismPublish date: 2009-05-27 11:27:41
It's my blog and I'll be a big kid if I want toPublish date: 2009-05-26 23:25:58
Highs feel better after so many lowsPublish date: 2009-05-26 10:13:12
Only one present countsPublish date: 2009-05-25 11:05:46
Contrast Cheney and BushPublish date: 2009-05-24 12:11:45
Sex (or at least the female form) obsessed BritainPublish date: 2009-05-23 20:49:57
Sport at both ends of the financial spectrumPublish date: 2009-05-23 09:57:23
Stronger together - whether Scotland or expensesPublish date: 2009-05-22 10:22:36
Back to Number 10, familiar faces, familiar argumentsPublish date: 2009-05-21 10:14:34
Speaking up for ParliamentPublish date: 2009-05-20 11:44:17
Peace in the Middle East - yes he canPublish date: 2009-05-19 09:37:35
Breaking news - one frenzy at a timePublish date: 2009-05-18 10:34:30
Getting a good look at Vince CablePublish date: 2009-05-17 09:36:55
How do you solve a problem like Silvio?Publish date: 2009-05-16 09:32:21
It was the internet wot won itPublish date: 2009-05-15 10:04:57
There now follows ... a good whack at CameronPublish date: 2009-05-14 17:21:28
They got their kit off - so you get your cash outPublish date: 2009-05-14 07:41:11
Expenses row must not obscure Tory intentions on minimum wagePublish date: 2009-05-13 16:12:08
We love you Burnley, we do ... what a nightPublish date: 2009-05-13 02:37:17
A tweet cannot express the wonders of TGVPublish date: 2009-05-12 08:48:31
It's Mind week - Get it off your Chest with me and Stephen FryPublish date: 2009-05-11 06:29:15
Hate the Mail, love ObamaPublish date: 2009-05-10 10:04:00
Burnley 1 Reading 0 - a biased reportPublish date: 2009-05-09 21:26:32
MPs expenses - time for party leaders to meet againPublish date: 2009-05-09 09:50:19
Should happiness replace prosperity as national goal?Publish date: 2009-05-08 08:43:23
Musings from a sleepless nightPublish date: 2009-05-07 07:33:49
Darren Fletcher - an injustice that has to be rightedPublish date: 2009-05-06 09:52:29
Maggie's legacy not as great as she thinksPublish date: 2009-05-05 08:33:02
Here's hoping Cardiff is metaphor for CameronPublish date: 2009-05-04 09:38:30
More Mr Benn and Co pleasePublish date: 2009-05-03 10:03:00
Going Fourth with JPPublish date: 2009-05-02 18:25:41
Journalism - print first, think laterPublish date: 2009-05-02 09:10:01
In praise of two poetsPublish date: 2009-05-01 10:26:36
JP hits the road againPublish date: 2009-04-29 18:52:11
My night with Eddie IzzardPublish date: 2009-04-29 10:53:25
Explaining the 50p top tax ratePublish date: 2009-04-28 09:22:53
George Best and Martin McGuinnessPublish date: 2009-04-27 09:02:35
Cameron confused over indepdendence and impartialityPublish date: 2009-04-26 12:20:56
Guide ro Marathon running part 2Publish date: 2009-04-25 11:01:34
Good signals on coal and the OlympicsPublish date: 2009-04-24 10:45:28
Tips for the London MarathonPublish date: 2009-04-23 17:29:27
Missed the Budget, saw why it matteredPublish date: 2009-04-22 23:09:31
Football good, politics bad. AllegedlyPublish date: 2009-04-22 00:00:24
The Great Wall gets greaterPublish date: 2009-04-21 09:55:22
Two sides to police storyPublish date: 2009-04-20 11:39:54
Budgets, Balls, billionaires and Susan BoylePublish date: 2009-04-19 12:31:45
Do muscles have memories?Publish date: 2009-04-18 09:44:44
Bring back standing at footballPublish date: 2009-04-17 14:50:22
When Facebook friends fall outPublish date: 2009-04-16 12:29:16
Guardian sightings and the email and bath plug agendaPublish date: 2009-04-15 11:32:16
The spin is all in the prismPublish date: 2009-04-14 09:22:41
A setback, not a crisisPublish date: 2009-04-13 12:55:19
The real lessons from Damian McBridePublish date: 2009-04-12 10:49:47
Will English always be the dominant language?Publish date: 2009-04-11 10:02:02
On the pipes and what makes a ScotPublish date: 2009-04-10 11:06:20
John Prescott lazy? NO WAYPublish date: 2009-04-09 09:11:31
David Frost is seventyPublish date: 2009-04-08 08:48:38
The Speaker, BBC2, tonight and tomorrow 8pmPublish date: 2009-04-07 14:25:31
Obama, colds and being woken by Korean missilesPublish date: 2009-04-06 11:59:24
When a call matters more than protocolPublish date: 2009-04-05 11:33:42
Green Cities Champions LeaguePublish date: 2009-04-04 10:19:53
Could Cameron have delivered the G20 deal?Publish date: 2009-04-03 10:11:59
Of Benn and BonoPublish date: 2009-04-02 08:21:16
Memo to Sarko - allez vite a LondresPublish date: 2009-04-01 08:46:17
Happy April Fool's DayPublish date: 2009-04-01 01:44:05
Eurostar, Le Monde and a thought for the G20 sherpasPublish date: 2009-03-31 09:17:22
Why Kevin Rudd made an impactPublish date: 2009-03-30 10:24:41
Pre-G20 hype matters less than post-G20 processPublish date: 2009-03-29 13:17:28
The Damned UnitedPublish date: 2009-03-28 10:37:04
A hobby horse, a plug and a bit of sportPublish date: 2009-03-27 10:22:23
Cloughie - he had a lot to be big-headed aboutPublish date: 2009-03-26 09:38:36
A sad sight of the old fearing the youngPublish date: 2009-03-25 17:03:07
Post-modern, post-structural, or bullshit?Publish date: 2009-03-25 08:18:02
Learning the right lessons from ObamaPublish date: 2009-03-24 08:53:15
Lazy Dave needs to keep an eye on lazy KenPublish date: 2009-03-23 11:16:14
Farewell favourite restaurant, hello hometownPublish date: 2009-03-22 08:18:09
Dave, Danny and have the Tories really changed?Publish date: 2009-03-21 08:55:13
Life beyond Dover ...Publish date: 2009-03-20 10:11:21
My friends in The New Statesman - Fergie, Fiona, Tony, Sarah, Kevin, 'Dacre,' and a great GB idea for the G20Publish date: 2009-03-18 10:38:22
Iraq, Iran, GB, Obama and diplomatic chessPublish date: 2009-03-17 10:07:13
The Age of StupidPublish date: 2009-03-16 08:27:13
Is all change good?Publish date: 2009-03-15 10:00:06
The pressure of being a post-modern sex godPublish date: 2009-03-14 10:00:55
Cameron still hasn't sealed the deal with businessPublish date: 2009-03-13 09:21:49
Stand up for social workersPublish date: 2009-03-12 08:31:17
Surely Malcolm Tucker could have told Armando Ianucci ... You can't spin a spinnerPublish date: 2009-03-11 10:58:25
Start of a new approach from Labour?Publish date: 2009-03-10 09:54:12
A peace process still strongPublish date: 2009-03-09 08:21:05
Day of destiny for the real footballer of the yearPublish date: 2009-03-08 09:21:06
Private advice to Peggy Mitchell - the leaked note in fullPublish date: 2009-03-07 08:17:21
Boris, the Tories and the tummy-tickling poodle pressPublish date: 2009-03-06 09:49:37
A day in the life of the self-obsessed TV reporterPublish date: 2009-03-05 07:55:47
GB - good speech, well deliveredPublish date: 2009-03-04 19:31:05
Notes on the environment, a role in EastEndersPublish date: 2009-03-04 10:58:56
She may be my 'wife' but it is time to rebut!Publish date: 2009-03-03 10:52:59
Some speeches matter more than othersPublish date: 2009-03-02 12:04:45
Mental health and the Carling Cup FinalPublish date: 2009-03-01 09:08:17
Inside the chocolate factoryPublish date: 2009-02-28 10:23:59
GB on the G20, JP on Jeremy KylePublish date: 2009-02-27 09:14:36
Charity and the credit crunch, please give generously!Publish date: 2009-02-26 08:55:12
Why oh why are the Tories not home and dry?Publish date: 2009-02-24 09:44:59
Me, Dermot and ten top songsPublish date: 2009-02-23 10:02:19
Names round-upPublish date: 2009-02-22 08:43:39
What's in a name?Publish date: 2009-02-21 09:58:14
Editing the New StatesmanPublish date: 2009-02-20 11:42:36
Salute Peter M’s proper use of the F wordPublish date: 2009-02-19 09:58:58
Labour's communications challenge for the NHSPublish date: 2009-02-18 10:34:39
In praise of KeighleyPublish date: 2009-02-17 14:33:57
A night at the EmiratesPublish date: 2009-02-17 00:06:51
When marriage is testedPublish date: 2009-02-16 13:36:35
Spare me the myths and the whiningPublish date: 2009-02-15 13:29:50
Dave Cameron - is that all there is?Publish date: 2009-02-14 11:11:55
Boris Johnson: F is for ...Publish date: 2009-02-13 07:55:10
The Cameron vacuumPublish date: 2009-02-12 14:48:33
Lincoln, Obama, Blair and the 24 hour media culturePublish date: 2009-02-11 10:28:47
Eighteen interviews later ...Publish date: 2009-02-10 19:24:45
Time to talk about Time to Change on NewsnightPublish date: 2009-02-09 22:47:49
So that’s what they mean by online community?Publish date: 2009-02-08 12:12:51
First blogPublish date: 2009-02-05 15:23:57
Alan Quinn
2010-02-27 20:20:30While some of the labour ranks were skiving at a local conference I was canvassing around Bury South this morning
and Dave isn't winning the punters over, once again pretty postive for Labour.
Eugene Zelem
2010-02-27 10:37:12Election Suggestion Slogan
EXPECT SHORT CHANGE FROM THE CONSERVATIVES
(ANTICIPATE)
VOTE LABOUR
Alan Quinn
2010-02-26 20:43:30What could count is experience. GB has it, as Chancellor, PM, meeting world leaders, sorting out the financial crisis. As Obama stated, Dave is a lightweight.
But look at it this way, Dave should be now out of sight, polling at 50% but he isn't. The polls are narrowing, Osborne and him are making mistake after mistake, Coulson could have to go if the Guardian pins any more on him.
The debate could be the final straw when the veneer cracks and the public see the real Cameron.
Charlie Reynolds
2010-02-26 18:37:23I will vote for the people prepared to tell the truth on our future economy and who are most likely to have the spine to take the decisions required to get us back on our feet. Gordon Brown still won't admit to the economic disaster we are facing. The deepest and longest recession since records began with the largest debt we have ever had. You cannot go on spending like this. I know the Keynesians think a bit of inflation will do us good (Always great to have economists on hand) but it will actually destroy us. Tough decisions and plans are required now and all your talk of personality and debates and funding is a just a distraction to the real central issue.
Get some balls and tell us the truth.
Patrick James
2010-02-26 18:03:53I do agree that the expectation that Cameron will be good in a TV debate is wrong headed.
It is perceived that Cameron is good on TV, people thing, the TV debate is on TV, so Cameron will be good at it. That is how the thinking works.
But Cameron is only good on TV for his own organised events or situations where he is protected from scrutiny.
An advantage he does have for the TV debate is that he is in opposition and I think any debate is easier if he's in opposition.
What Brown should do in the debate is turn the tables on him. Use attack as his defence and get Cameron straight into difficult stuff such as economic policy. Things that Brown is at home in and which Cameron is not.
The person who will benefit from the debate is Nick Clegg as you say. However Nick Clegg must be angling for a hung parliament. He knows it is better if Labour is "ahead" in a hung parliament for him I think he would be wise to target Cameron more than Brown in the debate.
Peter Casebow
2010-02-26 14:30:38Hi Alastair, follow you on twitter and love reading the blog, but please update your web site design it is impossible to read the blog on mobile devices like the iPhone if you click through from Twitter the internal scrolling within the page doesn't work and is a web no-no. Yes I can subscribe to the blog through the RSS feed and read it in my Google Reader but at the moment the site design from a practical point of view is not helping you get your message across!
Cheers
Peter
Robert Jackson
2010-02-26 13:21:03On Nick Clegg's behaviour in the debates, I reckon there are still a lot of natural Labour voters out there in Con/LD marginals who voted tactically for the Lib/Dem candidate to eject the Tory.
If Mr Clegg simply goes away from policy to vitriol, as do the Tories anyway, then he will see his team swept away as these seats melt magically back to the Conservatives.
Alan
2010-02-26 12:40:51I was in the studio for the recording of Question Time last night. I felt a distinct change of mood around. There was far less hostility to the govt than usual, and more questioning of the others. I think the Tories felt that the public must be influenced by the media hatred directed at Gordon Brown and Labour, but I think the public are much more fair minded. They have doubts about all the parties but the ones about Labour are well known whereas the ones about the other parties, especially the Tories , are now coming to the fore
s chapman
2010-02-26 12:18:37If both Tory and Labour core supporters firm up and leave the Tories slightly ahead then in marginals with the current economic climate an undecided voter I think would vote for a change after so many years of Labour - this is the most logical outcome...looks like a Tory Govt with a maj of say 25-40
Chris lancashire
2010-02-26 11:04:56As usual you are quite right - the televised debates will expose gaping holes in policy. For example, will GB be for or against cuts this week? Last week it was Labour investment versus Tory cuts; this week GB says he has consistently said cuts are required. Well he is consistent - this week.
Colin Donaldson
2010-02-26 10:32:35Wibbly-wobbliness? Your defence against Villa last week...
Pauline Samuel
2010-02-26 10:31:34Cameron is liked by the media because he gives them the impression they are who he cares about. Gordon is interested in how policy affects people, not journalists who will be fine whoever wins. I also think a lot of the venom for Gordon is because the fifty pence rate will hit a lot of the editors.
Chris Harper
2010-02-26 10:29:59Good point about Clegg. The debates may be the place where we get a sense of whether he is closer to Labour or Tory. He is a bit of an unknown quantity. Previous third party leaders, especially Steel and Ashdown and the SDP of course, were very high profile before an election. But Clegg has the chance to make a fresh impact. Let's hope he takes Tory votes not Labour
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