Comments
Tories wrong on recession wrong on recovery
2010-04-08 11:47:59
For the nth time, I will point out the difference between strategy and tactics and suggest that David Cameron and George Osborne are rather better at the latter than the former.
Watching Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Peter Mandelson take apart the Tories' National Insurance deception - glad to see they were calling a spade a spade - was a reminder of that esssential Tory weakness.
They assume that if they get a good media hit out of something, they have won the day. And they think if they win enough days in the media war, they will win with the public.
Yet even with the media heavily loaded in their favour, and even with the hit they enjoyed with their NICs rabbit the other day, and the roll-out of business support, it does not appear to have had the desired efffect. And it is interesting that is they who want to move the debate away from this particular issue, and Labour and the Lib Dems who want to keep a focus upon it.
I had all but forgotten about the James Report until GB mentioned it this morning. It brought back awful memories of the last campaign in 2005 when this heavy tome was unleashed upon us, identifying all sorts of areas where government could save money and so fund the promises being made by the Tories.
It took a while, but bit by bit we pulled it apart until its credibility was gone. The same is now happening to the four page memo on which DC and GO appear to be basing their entire economic 'strategy.'
By happy coincidence, this morning's press conference took place against the backdrop of an OECD report suggesting the UK was better placed than other countries to emerge from the recession strongly.
That sense of recovery, and the government's role in it, is without doubt one of the reasons why the Tories are failing to pull away in the way they had hoped to by this stage of the campaign. But the inexperience and judgement of DC and GO are also factors, as is the sense many people have of their elitism and their lack of connection with most people's lives.
One of the most efffective parts of this morning's event was when Alistair Darling reminded people of the serial misjudgements Osborne and Cameron made at the time the global economic crisis struck. This latest misjudgement - a promise of a tax cut without real explanation as to its funding days after saying the deficit was priority number 1 - stands in a long line.
As GB mentioned a few times in PMQs exchanges in the last year or so, the Tories were wrong on the recession and wrong on the recovery.Tactics will only take you so far if your strategic response to the single most important event of the last Parliament, and the single most important issue for the next one, is wrong.
* Buy The Blair Years online and raise cash for Labour http://www.alastaircampbell.org/bookshop.php.
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Breaking the blog-a-day spell as warm up to holidayPublish date: 2009-07-20 17:44:49
No hiding place from Twitter, me on the bike, JP in DCPublish date: 2009-07-17 18:17:09
At last - something Obama cannot do wellPublish date: 2009-07-16 10:05:47
Will MPs take the lead in the debate on euthanasia?Publish date: 2009-07-15 12:30:01
Berlin brothel leads the way to a greener worldPublish date: 2009-07-14 10:57:25
A time for GB to explain the whole picturePublish date: 2009-07-13 12:37:54
All hail Monty, Jimmy and Collie!Publish date: 2009-07-12 20:06:36
First triathlon of the summer for me, education award for FionaPublish date: 2009-07-12 09:43:06
Of Burnley's friendly and Obama's wandering eyePublish date: 2009-07-11 12:38:52
Two great early morning momentsPublish date: 2009-07-10 10:27:07
Cameron had better be sure he's rightPublish date: 2009-07-09 11:06:22
Guardian scoop has big questions for press, cops and CameronPublish date: 2009-07-08 20:40:54
Divisive legend: Lance ArmstrongPublish date: 2009-07-07 10:38:23
First hug a hoodie, now grab a gayPublish date: 2009-07-06 12:57:09
Mail on Scumday's wonderful account of Lansley's kipperdomPublish date: 2009-07-05 13:14:51
Ecclestone undermines his own success with alarming views on HitlerPublish date: 2009-07-04 14:04:04
When the conmen move more quickly than the councilPublish date: 2009-07-03 10:19:52
Andrew Lansley done up like a kipperPublish date: 2009-07-02 10:10:52
A day spent interviewing footballers, then being interviewed by a transvestite comedianPublish date: 2009-07-01 14:47:40
When the power of black eyes fadesPublish date: 2009-06-30 09:24:59
Farewell to Henry HodgePublish date: 2009-06-29 20:41:12
Honouring the power of sport to do goodPublish date: 2009-06-29 14:49:42
Andy Murray is a winner. Is that why some Brits don't like him?Publish date: 2009-06-28 09:19:20
New Parliament will look very different. The younger the betterPublish date: 2009-06-27 17:34:26
Two nice surprises, sad end to dayPublish date: 2009-06-26 09:16:33
Apology from the Spectator on Iraq boosts Henry Hodge fundPublish date: 2009-06-25 19:57:26
Thanks to Mr Harper on mental health, rebuttal of Mr Hague on IraqPublish date: 2009-06-24 23:47:54
Glad to find Eric Cantona in a quiet cinema ...Publish date: 2009-06-24 00:46:23
By Dave's friends shall we know him?Publish date: 2009-06-23 11:30:20
The Speaker has to balance tradition and change - but defend ParliamentPublish date: 2009-06-22 11:58:44
Less a blog than an apology for not having done onePublish date: 2009-06-21 20:07:43
The day Lions skipper Paul O'Connell took my trousers downPublish date: 2009-06-20 11:48:28
On the Iraq inquiry, Independent article wrongPublish date: 2009-06-19 20:28:24
Thank you to three readers, now please get involvedPublish date: 2009-06-19 09:13:35
A tribute to a lovely manPublish date: 2009-06-18 17:19:40
Bad times in Belfast, great day for Burnley, odd statement from Ed BallsPublish date: 2009-06-18 10:04:47
A plea for five-figure cyber-donationsPublish date: 2009-06-17 07:40:42
On two inquiriesPublish date: 2009-06-16 08:57:39
From India to Iran to Labour witPublish date: 2009-06-15 10:13:17
Memories of Princess DianaPublish date: 2009-06-14 09:54:55
A House Divided?Publish date: 2009-06-13 02:53:47
A humbling NHS experience, a media row and a good GB speechPublish date: 2009-06-12 10:48:46
Psychiatrists heading for relegation in 'disease prestige' league tablePublish date: 2009-06-11 10:25:35
The shrinks awaitPublish date: 2009-06-10 09:44:16
As Obama fights for healthcare, let's celebrate the record herePublish date: 2009-06-09 12:52:55
Anger at BNP seats must be turned into activismPublish date: 2009-06-08 14:11:10
Can today be as frenzied as Friday?Publish date: 2009-06-07 10:31:04
Take heart from a win in LambethPublish date: 2009-06-06 18:46:40
JP is right there was no proper campaign but Tories still weakPublish date: 2009-06-05 13:47:20
Do we care more about the NHS or moats?Publish date: 2009-06-04 00:21:23
Guardian of social justice or attention-seeker?Publish date: 2009-06-03 10:19:33
Who says Britain can't deliver the best?Publish date: 2009-06-02 08:08:38
Mainstream has a duty to vote against BNPPublish date: 2009-06-01 11:03:29
Let Diversity inspire a vote against the hate-filled BNPPublish date: 2009-05-31 12:24:20
White House whack at UK media well-timed but sure to be ignoredPublish date: 2009-05-30 13:41:00
Elvis has a plan to make MPs King againPublish date: 2009-05-29 12:09:44
At least there's a campaign on in ItalyPublish date: 2009-05-28 09:04:32
A blow to gay rights and a boost for Cameron's short-termismPublish date: 2009-05-27 11:27:41
It's my blog and I'll be a big kid if I want toPublish date: 2009-05-26 23:25:58
Highs feel better after so many lowsPublish date: 2009-05-26 10:13:12
Only one present countsPublish date: 2009-05-25 11:05:46
Contrast Cheney and BushPublish date: 2009-05-24 12:11:45
Sex (or at least the female form) obsessed BritainPublish date: 2009-05-23 20:49:57
Sport at both ends of the financial spectrumPublish date: 2009-05-23 09:57:23
Stronger together - whether Scotland or expensesPublish date: 2009-05-22 10:22:36
Back to Number 10, familiar faces, familiar argumentsPublish date: 2009-05-21 10:14:34
Speaking up for ParliamentPublish date: 2009-05-20 11:44:17
Peace in the Middle East - yes he canPublish date: 2009-05-19 09:37:35
Breaking news - one frenzy at a timePublish date: 2009-05-18 10:34:30
Getting a good look at Vince CablePublish date: 2009-05-17 09:36:55
How do you solve a problem like Silvio?Publish date: 2009-05-16 09:32:21
It was the internet wot won itPublish date: 2009-05-15 10:04:57
There now follows ... a good whack at CameronPublish date: 2009-05-14 17:21:28
They got their kit off - so you get your cash outPublish date: 2009-05-14 07:41:11
Expenses row must not obscure Tory intentions on minimum wagePublish date: 2009-05-13 16:12:08
We love you Burnley, we do ... what a nightPublish date: 2009-05-13 02:37:17
A tweet cannot express the wonders of TGVPublish date: 2009-05-12 08:48:31
It's Mind week - Get it off your Chest with me and Stephen FryPublish date: 2009-05-11 06:29:15
Hate the Mail, love ObamaPublish date: 2009-05-10 10:04:00
Burnley 1 Reading 0 - a biased reportPublish date: 2009-05-09 21:26:32
MPs expenses - time for party leaders to meet againPublish date: 2009-05-09 09:50:19
Should happiness replace prosperity as national goal?Publish date: 2009-05-08 08:43:23
Musings from a sleepless nightPublish date: 2009-05-07 07:33:49
Darren Fletcher - an injustice that has to be rightedPublish date: 2009-05-06 09:52:29
Maggie's legacy not as great as she thinksPublish date: 2009-05-05 08:33:02
Here's hoping Cardiff is metaphor for CameronPublish date: 2009-05-04 09:38:30
More Mr Benn and Co pleasePublish date: 2009-05-03 10:03:00
Going Fourth with JPPublish date: 2009-05-02 18:25:41
Journalism - print first, think laterPublish date: 2009-05-02 09:10:01
In praise of two poetsPublish date: 2009-05-01 10:26:36
JP hits the road againPublish date: 2009-04-29 18:52:11
My night with Eddie IzzardPublish date: 2009-04-29 10:53:25
Explaining the 50p top tax ratePublish date: 2009-04-28 09:22:53
George Best and Martin McGuinnessPublish date: 2009-04-27 09:02:35
Cameron confused over indepdendence and impartialityPublish date: 2009-04-26 12:20:56
Guide ro Marathon running part 2Publish date: 2009-04-25 11:01:34
Good signals on coal and the OlympicsPublish date: 2009-04-24 10:45:28
Tips for the London MarathonPublish date: 2009-04-23 17:29:27
Missed the Budget, saw why it matteredPublish date: 2009-04-22 23:09:31
Football good, politics bad. AllegedlyPublish date: 2009-04-22 00:00:24
The Great Wall gets greaterPublish date: 2009-04-21 09:55:22
Two sides to police storyPublish date: 2009-04-20 11:39:54
Budgets, Balls, billionaires and Susan BoylePublish date: 2009-04-19 12:31:45
Do muscles have memories?Publish date: 2009-04-18 09:44:44
Bring back standing at footballPublish date: 2009-04-17 14:50:22
When Facebook friends fall outPublish date: 2009-04-16 12:29:16
Guardian sightings and the email and bath plug agendaPublish date: 2009-04-15 11:32:16
The spin is all in the prismPublish date: 2009-04-14 09:22:41
A setback, not a crisisPublish date: 2009-04-13 12:55:19
The real lessons from Damian McBridePublish date: 2009-04-12 10:49:47
Will English always be the dominant language?Publish date: 2009-04-11 10:02:02
On the pipes and what makes a ScotPublish date: 2009-04-10 11:06:20
John Prescott lazy? NO WAYPublish date: 2009-04-09 09:11:31
David Frost is seventyPublish date: 2009-04-08 08:48:38
The Speaker, BBC2, tonight and tomorrow 8pmPublish date: 2009-04-07 14:25:31
Obama, colds and being woken by Korean missilesPublish date: 2009-04-06 11:59:24
When a call matters more than protocolPublish date: 2009-04-05 11:33:42
Green Cities Champions LeaguePublish date: 2009-04-04 10:19:53
Could Cameron have delivered the G20 deal?Publish date: 2009-04-03 10:11:59
Of Benn and BonoPublish date: 2009-04-02 08:21:16
Memo to Sarko - allez vite a LondresPublish date: 2009-04-01 08:46:17
Happy April Fool's DayPublish date: 2009-04-01 01:44:05
Eurostar, Le Monde and a thought for the G20 sherpasPublish date: 2009-03-31 09:17:22
Why Kevin Rudd made an impactPublish date: 2009-03-30 10:24:41
Pre-G20 hype matters less than post-G20 processPublish date: 2009-03-29 13:17:28
The Damned UnitedPublish date: 2009-03-28 10:37:04
A hobby horse, a plug and a bit of sportPublish date: 2009-03-27 10:22:23
Cloughie - he had a lot to be big-headed aboutPublish date: 2009-03-26 09:38:36
A sad sight of the old fearing the youngPublish date: 2009-03-25 17:03:07
Post-modern, post-structural, or bullshit?Publish date: 2009-03-25 08:18:02
Learning the right lessons from ObamaPublish date: 2009-03-24 08:53:15
Lazy Dave needs to keep an eye on lazy KenPublish date: 2009-03-23 11:16:14
Farewell favourite restaurant, hello hometownPublish date: 2009-03-22 08:18:09
Dave, Danny and have the Tories really changed?Publish date: 2009-03-21 08:55:13
Life beyond Dover ...Publish date: 2009-03-20 10:11:21
My friends in The New Statesman - Fergie, Fiona, Tony, Sarah, Kevin, 'Dacre,' and a great GB idea for the G20Publish date: 2009-03-18 10:38:22
Iraq, Iran, GB, Obama and diplomatic chessPublish date: 2009-03-17 10:07:13
The Age of StupidPublish date: 2009-03-16 08:27:13
Is all change good?Publish date: 2009-03-15 10:00:06
The pressure of being a post-modern sex godPublish date: 2009-03-14 10:00:55
Cameron still hasn't sealed the deal with businessPublish date: 2009-03-13 09:21:49
Stand up for social workersPublish date: 2009-03-12 08:31:17
Surely Malcolm Tucker could have told Armando Ianucci ... You can't spin a spinnerPublish date: 2009-03-11 10:58:25
Start of a new approach from Labour?Publish date: 2009-03-10 09:54:12
A peace process still strongPublish date: 2009-03-09 08:21:05
Day of destiny for the real footballer of the yearPublish date: 2009-03-08 09:21:06
Private advice to Peggy Mitchell - the leaked note in fullPublish date: 2009-03-07 08:17:21
Boris, the Tories and the tummy-tickling poodle pressPublish date: 2009-03-06 09:49:37
A day in the life of the self-obsessed TV reporterPublish date: 2009-03-05 07:55:47
GB - good speech, well deliveredPublish date: 2009-03-04 19:31:05
Notes on the environment, a role in EastEndersPublish date: 2009-03-04 10:58:56
She may be my 'wife' but it is time to rebut!Publish date: 2009-03-03 10:52:59
Some speeches matter more than othersPublish date: 2009-03-02 12:04:45
Mental health and the Carling Cup FinalPublish date: 2009-03-01 09:08:17
Inside the chocolate factoryPublish date: 2009-02-28 10:23:59
GB on the G20, JP on Jeremy KylePublish date: 2009-02-27 09:14:36
Charity and the credit crunch, please give generously!Publish date: 2009-02-26 08:55:12
Why oh why are the Tories not home and dry?Publish date: 2009-02-24 09:44:59
Me, Dermot and ten top songsPublish date: 2009-02-23 10:02:19
Names round-upPublish date: 2009-02-22 08:43:39
What's in a name?Publish date: 2009-02-21 09:58:14
Editing the New StatesmanPublish date: 2009-02-20 11:42:36
Salute Peter M’s proper use of the F wordPublish date: 2009-02-19 09:58:58
Labour's communications challenge for the NHSPublish date: 2009-02-18 10:34:39
In praise of KeighleyPublish date: 2009-02-17 14:33:57
A night at the EmiratesPublish date: 2009-02-17 00:06:51
When marriage is testedPublish date: 2009-02-16 13:36:35
Spare me the myths and the whiningPublish date: 2009-02-15 13:29:50
Dave Cameron - is that all there is?Publish date: 2009-02-14 11:11:55
Boris Johnson: F is for ...Publish date: 2009-02-13 07:55:10
The Cameron vacuumPublish date: 2009-02-12 14:48:33
Lincoln, Obama, Blair and the 24 hour media culturePublish date: 2009-02-11 10:28:47
Eighteen interviews later ...Publish date: 2009-02-10 19:24:45
Time to talk about Time to Change on NewsnightPublish date: 2009-02-09 22:47:49
So that’s what they mean by online community?Publish date: 2009-02-08 12:12:51
First blogPublish date: 2009-02-05 15:23:57
Chris lancashire
2010-04-09 10:31:39Speaking of serial misjudgements, remember GB's wonder strategy to sell off gold at an alltime low and cost the country £6bn? Or the fact that brilliant GB lead us into recession with a £40bn annual defecit? Or that brilliant, brilliant tripartite bank governance system that GB established? That worked well didn't it?
Adrian Barritt
2010-04-09 00:33:37Well, remember the theme song for the first "Italian Job" ; "It's a self-preservation society..."
Charlie Reynolds
2010-04-08 23:34:25Keep diggin your own hole - the Tories must be loving it! Literally JCBs to the ready.
The principles of the parties are coming across loud and clear. Labour will raise taxes before tackling waste. The Tories will tackle waste before raising taxes.
Labour know 'cuts worse than thatcher' are required but do not have the nerve to do it. What will you cut? You've said plenty about which taxes you will raise. Seems you are only capable of doing the latter.
TIME FOR CHANGE.
Robert Jackson
2010-04-08 19:28:34I think I have worked out the Conservative election strategy.
They seem to be trying to run it like their successful 1754 campaign in Oxford.
(See William Hogarth's splendid series of paintings in Sir John Soane's museum - "An Election" www.soane.org)
The Tory NI policy is a direct rip-off of the "give us back our 11 days" campaign when the Gregorian calendar was adopted in 1752. An emotive nonsense based on a deliberate misunderstanding.
Niall from Belfast
2010-04-08 19:08:07And the Tories ill-judged sojourn into Northern Ireland politics continues.
If you can source a recording, listen to the BBC Radio Ulster interview with Theresa May on her visit to NI today.
I can't decide whether my favourite piece is the Paxmanesque exchange with the interviewer, or the slightly too loud whispered prompting of an adviser to tell her the names of some of the local constituencies .
Ben
2010-04-08 18:49:40I wrote a bit of the James Report in '05. Much of it was made up.
Mark Wright
2010-04-08 18:31:27A good comeback from GB today.
It's quite clear that the Tory strategy is to sprinkle un-costed policies around, hopefully set the news agenda for that day, and then move on to something else before anyone notices it's a load of incoherent rubbish.
This approach will only get them so far and the public will, as has happened previously, be left feeling the Tories are attempting to dupe them with a slight of hand.
By standing firm on his NI pledge and continuing to argue his case GB is forcing onto the media agenda that which he commands so well...detail.
OdihamClaret
2010-04-08 18:22:47Alastair,
Your piece: "Tories wrong on recession, wrong on recovery" is as leaky as our defence!
the essential point is that Brown hosed money at essentially unreformed public services (to some good effect -admitted) but continued to hose that money in way beyond net tax receipts for years and years, even in the boom years. Now in the bust years, We cannot sustain the spend.
Despite all this "hosing" of money under Liebour,even in the Tory years Burnley had a hospital A & E, now the ambulances stack up at Blackburn due to capacity constraints. Mind you, perhaps it's Burnley based ambulance occupants for refusing to set foot on Blackburn soil!!
Even crock economies such as Italy are only running a 5% defecit whilst Germany 4% and France 7.5% are at deficit levels much less than ours at 12.7%. Our defecit is only forecast to get back to Italy's current deficit levels in 5 years time!! - by Voldemort's own figures. What a monumentally crap state of affairs.
Brown is like Laws in some respects - Clueless!
Patrick James
2010-04-08 15:54:10Yesterday I was hearing about the OECD report a lot on Radio 4. I don't have a TV, so I listen to the radio a lot.
I think that perhaps the key to the election now is to start sounding positive about the future, but with a strong sense of responsibility.
Labour is to be positive while being responsible. After all we owe our success to calm, measured and sensible actions. We are optimistic but we have a lot of work to do.
Conservatives are positive but without any sense of responsibility. They are "firing up that Quattro". They are promising this and that, but it is on a wing and a prayer.
jim brant
2010-04-08 14:46:56I suppose it wasn't surprising that the BBC News last night didn't mention the OECD report; no more than we've come to expect. But of course if it had said that the UK was forecast to have the weakest recovery it would have been the headline story.
S Chapman
2010-04-08 13:30:07AC - re the OECD ...dont you agree that if you throw 1 trillion quid at the UK economy it should show signs of a recovery?? I mean come on 1 trilion quid !!
Campaign rapidly falling into those like you who like the minutia of it all and those who will switch off fairly soon and wait for polling day and then say " change or not " ??
Charlie
2010-04-08 13:29:31AC. You are happy to lecture others but it is YOU who might benefit from listening to what real people say for a change.
Unlike Gordon Brown, most people actually like Michael Caine AND what he has to say:
“You’re saying to poor people, ‘let’s tax those rich gits’ and I understand that. You slice up the cake, give everyone a chance, but don’t destroy the people that are making the bloody cake! I really believe about taking care of people, I don’t mind paying tax. It’s how the government spends my tax that I detest, really detest, because I see the waste. More money than all our income tax is spent on benefits. Now you tell me there is nothing wrong with that system.”
Nick
2010-04-08 13:07:17The most interesting part of the press conference was when BBC Newsnight Economics Editor Paul Mason asked Mandelson how he could criticise the Tories for uncosted cuts, when Labour had promised a £15bn cut yet not even held a Public Spending Review. Baron Foy's face at this point was a picture. He visibly floundered.
"err...you get the picture though" he stumbled
We do indeed, Peter. Its time for change.
Michael Partington
2010-04-08 12:59:22Problem is only a small number of people watch it all. I agreee they demolished the Tories but by the news tonight it will be a little bit of this a bit of that and all churned into a mush by the media. I wish everyone could folow the debate closely but most people are just getting on with their lives and catch the oddd bit here and rhere
Corinne Hall
2010-04-08 12:57:37Michael Caine will get a lot of publicity but it actually underlines and emphasises the case - that they are not serious. I hope and pray the public can see through the emptiness of what Cameron was saying. watched his press conference. Fairly tame questions
Alex
2010-04-08 12:14:40Watched the press conference. GB and AD effectively destroyed the Tory case.
But will the press follow it up?
Watching DC and Michael Caine ..... wil the press be dazzled by the celebrity or will they ask some searching questions....?
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