Comments
Cameron winning on media support but losing on leadership
2010-02-02 10:47:50
Leadership is in large part about how you react under pressure.
Pressure does not come much greater than that which faced Gordon Brown when an economic whirlwind struck, and the world feared a plunge into a 30s style depression.
This morning I look at a Financial Times front page headline which says 'Manufacturing surges back' and above it a strapline recording 'fastest growth since 1994 - hopes rise for swifter recovery - exporters buoyant.'
At least some of the credit for that must go to GB and the government for stepping in as they did, making some very big calls which have helped prevent recession becoming depression, and helped limit the impact in terms of jobs, homes and savings. Not a bad year's work. Under pressure.
David Cameron, as Opposition leader, is always inevitably under some pressure. But with so many economic and political factors stacked in his favour, he can count himself lucky that thanks the the tamest media coverage of any leader in our political lifetime, the pressure on him has been less intense than on any leader in our political lifetime.
The narrowing of the polls suggests not simply that the economy is beginning to pick up, and that some are able to make a link with government actions, but also that the public are ahead of the media in their questioning of Cameron and Co.
The weekend confusion over their plans for cutting public spending are the result once more of Cameron's failure to do the strategic and policy heavy lifting needed to turn an Opposition party into a party of power.
So when they sensed the mood felt right for an austerity message, that is what he delivered. When he realised that he had in fact got the mood wrong, he trimmed his sails, then did so again, and again, until now people are unsure what he is saying at all.
As part of his 'rundown Britain' strategy, he tries to put the UK in the same bracket as Greece, whose economy is close to kaput. But in his own plans he has now retreated from the obvious medicine such an economy needs. This exposes the hollowness of his strategy - he lacks the courage to take the tough decisions required by his own analysis. So all he is left with is talking down Britain, which in turn erodes the sense of hope and optimism an opposition leader should be able to capture.
So whilst he traipses around playing back a line one of his people heard in a focus group - namely that we can't go on like this - his poor shadow chief secretary is reduced to mumbling that first year cuts are going to be 'one billion, one and a half, something like that.' Never mind the vagueness of it - back to not having done the work - it is a pinprick if they are serious in their view that we face a 'Greek-style budget crisis' as George Osborne calls it.
Throw in the impact of the airbrushed posters, the far more creative doctored versions of it, and you realise doubts about Cameron are growing just at the time he should be cementing the deal with the British public, making them feel it is both inevitable and right he and his team should now be running the country.
He's ignored my advice on strategy before, and I hope he will do so again. But I'll give him a bit more anyway. If Labour had been asked to devise a policy that reminds people that Tories care more for the rich than they do for the poor or the middle classes, it would have looked something like the inheritance tax cut for the richest families in the country that Dave and George came up with. He should drop it, even if it means losing the donors who pressed for it.
And he would be wise to scrap his other tax commitment, to give a tax break for marriage, which has already created enough confusion at a time the Tory leader needs a bit more clarity in what what he's saying.
GB may not be the greatest communicator in the world, and he may lack Dave's touchy feely grasp of the instant soundbite.
But if they were to look back on the past twelve months - one has steered Britain reasonably safely through economic crisis, the other has created nothing but confusion in his tax and spending plans, and blown half a million quid on the most ineffective and ill-advised poster campaign since 'are you thinking what we're thinking?'
** Thanks for the kind and the not so kind messages coming through amid book orders yesterday. Both are welcome, provided you pay £15 for The Blair Years, half of which will be donated to the Party. For details go to
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Real respect for sport can be Olympic legacyPublish date: 2009-09-04 09:27:34
First ladies watch out for Japanese bombshellPublish date: 2009-09-03 10:47:19
TV debate - good idea in theory, but ...Publish date: 2009-09-02 15:37:43
'No worries' - the new response to thanksPublish date: 2009-09-01 12:25:19
Tremors of Japanese political earthquake will be felt far and widePublish date: 2009-08-30 15:50:54
Pressure on Ed Miliband can help get a climate change dealPublish date: 2009-08-28 13:39:08
Why Tories and media cannot stomach GCSE success storyPublish date: 2009-08-27 16:03:34
Exposing the absurdity of Chris GraylingPublish date: 2009-08-26 13:20:19
Joy and beauty and a night of magicPublish date: 2009-08-20 10:55:11
Twitter NHS backlash good for ObamaPublish date: 2009-08-14 15:44:49
A lifetime's ambition fulfilledPublish date: 2009-08-08 16:59:02
Breaking the blog-a-day spell as warm up to holidayPublish date: 2009-07-20 17:44:49
No hiding place from Twitter, me on the bike, JP in DCPublish date: 2009-07-17 18:17:09
At last - something Obama cannot do wellPublish date: 2009-07-16 10:05:47
Will MPs take the lead in the debate on euthanasia?Publish date: 2009-07-15 12:30:01
Berlin brothel leads the way to a greener worldPublish date: 2009-07-14 10:57:25
A time for GB to explain the whole picturePublish date: 2009-07-13 12:37:54
All hail Monty, Jimmy and Collie!Publish date: 2009-07-12 20:06:36
First triathlon of the summer for me, education award for FionaPublish date: 2009-07-12 09:43:06
Of Burnley's friendly and Obama's wandering eyePublish date: 2009-07-11 12:38:52
Two great early morning momentsPublish date: 2009-07-10 10:27:07
Cameron had better be sure he's rightPublish date: 2009-07-09 11:06:22
Guardian scoop has big questions for press, cops and CameronPublish date: 2009-07-08 20:40:54
Divisive legend: Lance ArmstrongPublish date: 2009-07-07 10:38:23
First hug a hoodie, now grab a gayPublish date: 2009-07-06 12:57:09
Mail on Scumday's wonderful account of Lansley's kipperdomPublish date: 2009-07-05 13:14:51
Ecclestone undermines his own success with alarming views on HitlerPublish date: 2009-07-04 14:04:04
When the conmen move more quickly than the councilPublish date: 2009-07-03 10:19:52
Andrew Lansley done up like a kipperPublish date: 2009-07-02 10:10:52
A day spent interviewing footballers, then being interviewed by a transvestite comedianPublish date: 2009-07-01 14:47:40
When the power of black eyes fadesPublish date: 2009-06-30 09:24:59
Farewell to Henry HodgePublish date: 2009-06-29 20:41:12
Honouring the power of sport to do goodPublish date: 2009-06-29 14:49:42
Andy Murray is a winner. Is that why some Brits don't like him?Publish date: 2009-06-28 09:19:20
New Parliament will look very different. The younger the betterPublish date: 2009-06-27 17:34:26
Two nice surprises, sad end to dayPublish date: 2009-06-26 09:16:33
Apology from the Spectator on Iraq boosts Henry Hodge fundPublish date: 2009-06-25 19:57:26
Thanks to Mr Harper on mental health, rebuttal of Mr Hague on IraqPublish date: 2009-06-24 23:47:54
Glad to find Eric Cantona in a quiet cinema ...Publish date: 2009-06-24 00:46:23
By Dave's friends shall we know him?Publish date: 2009-06-23 11:30:20
The Speaker has to balance tradition and change - but defend ParliamentPublish date: 2009-06-22 11:58:44
Less a blog than an apology for not having done onePublish date: 2009-06-21 20:07:43
The day Lions skipper Paul O'Connell took my trousers downPublish date: 2009-06-20 11:48:28
On the Iraq inquiry, Independent article wrongPublish date: 2009-06-19 20:28:24
Thank you to three readers, now please get involvedPublish date: 2009-06-19 09:13:35
A tribute to a lovely manPublish date: 2009-06-18 17:19:40
Bad times in Belfast, great day for Burnley, odd statement from Ed BallsPublish date: 2009-06-18 10:04:47
A plea for five-figure cyber-donationsPublish date: 2009-06-17 07:40:42
On two inquiriesPublish date: 2009-06-16 08:57:39
From India to Iran to Labour witPublish date: 2009-06-15 10:13:17
Memories of Princess DianaPublish date: 2009-06-14 09:54:55
A House Divided?Publish date: 2009-06-13 02:53:47
A humbling NHS experience, a media row and a good GB speechPublish date: 2009-06-12 10:48:46
Psychiatrists heading for relegation in 'disease prestige' league tablePublish date: 2009-06-11 10:25:35
The shrinks awaitPublish date: 2009-06-10 09:44:16
As Obama fights for healthcare, let's celebrate the record herePublish date: 2009-06-09 12:52:55
Anger at BNP seats must be turned into activismPublish date: 2009-06-08 14:11:10
Can today be as frenzied as Friday?Publish date: 2009-06-07 10:31:04
Take heart from a win in LambethPublish date: 2009-06-06 18:46:40
JP is right there was no proper campaign but Tories still weakPublish date: 2009-06-05 13:47:20
Do we care more about the NHS or moats?Publish date: 2009-06-04 00:21:23
Guardian of social justice or attention-seeker?Publish date: 2009-06-03 10:19:33
Who says Britain can't deliver the best?Publish date: 2009-06-02 08:08:38
Mainstream has a duty to vote against BNPPublish date: 2009-06-01 11:03:29
Let Diversity inspire a vote against the hate-filled BNPPublish date: 2009-05-31 12:24:20
White House whack at UK media well-timed but sure to be ignoredPublish date: 2009-05-30 13:41:00
Elvis has a plan to make MPs King againPublish date: 2009-05-29 12:09:44
At least there's a campaign on in ItalyPublish date: 2009-05-28 09:04:32
A blow to gay rights and a boost for Cameron's short-termismPublish date: 2009-05-27 11:27:41
It's my blog and I'll be a big kid if I want toPublish date: 2009-05-26 23:25:58
Highs feel better after so many lowsPublish date: 2009-05-26 10:13:12
Only one present countsPublish date: 2009-05-25 11:05:46
Contrast Cheney and BushPublish date: 2009-05-24 12:11:45
Sex (or at least the female form) obsessed BritainPublish date: 2009-05-23 20:49:57
Sport at both ends of the financial spectrumPublish date: 2009-05-23 09:57:23
Stronger together - whether Scotland or expensesPublish date: 2009-05-22 10:22:36
Back to Number 10, familiar faces, familiar argumentsPublish date: 2009-05-21 10:14:34
Speaking up for ParliamentPublish date: 2009-05-20 11:44:17
Peace in the Middle East - yes he canPublish date: 2009-05-19 09:37:35
Breaking news - one frenzy at a timePublish date: 2009-05-18 10:34:30
Getting a good look at Vince CablePublish date: 2009-05-17 09:36:55
How do you solve a problem like Silvio?Publish date: 2009-05-16 09:32:21
It was the internet wot won itPublish date: 2009-05-15 10:04:57
There now follows ... a good whack at CameronPublish date: 2009-05-14 17:21:28
They got their kit off - so you get your cash outPublish date: 2009-05-14 07:41:11
Expenses row must not obscure Tory intentions on minimum wagePublish date: 2009-05-13 16:12:08
We love you Burnley, we do ... what a nightPublish date: 2009-05-13 02:37:17
A tweet cannot express the wonders of TGVPublish date: 2009-05-12 08:48:31
It's Mind week - Get it off your Chest with me and Stephen FryPublish date: 2009-05-11 06:29:15
Hate the Mail, love ObamaPublish date: 2009-05-10 10:04:00
Burnley 1 Reading 0 - a biased reportPublish date: 2009-05-09 21:26:32
MPs expenses - time for party leaders to meet againPublish date: 2009-05-09 09:50:19
Should happiness replace prosperity as national goal?Publish date: 2009-05-08 08:43:23
Musings from a sleepless nightPublish date: 2009-05-07 07:33:49
Darren Fletcher - an injustice that has to be rightedPublish date: 2009-05-06 09:52:29
Maggie's legacy not as great as she thinksPublish date: 2009-05-05 08:33:02
Here's hoping Cardiff is metaphor for CameronPublish date: 2009-05-04 09:38:30
More Mr Benn and Co pleasePublish date: 2009-05-03 10:03:00
Going Fourth with JPPublish date: 2009-05-02 18:25:41
Journalism - print first, think laterPublish date: 2009-05-02 09:10:01
In praise of two poetsPublish date: 2009-05-01 10:26:36
JP hits the road againPublish date: 2009-04-29 18:52:11
My night with Eddie IzzardPublish date: 2009-04-29 10:53:25
Explaining the 50p top tax ratePublish date: 2009-04-28 09:22:53
George Best and Martin McGuinnessPublish date: 2009-04-27 09:02:35
Cameron confused over indepdendence and impartialityPublish date: 2009-04-26 12:20:56
Guide ro Marathon running part 2Publish date: 2009-04-25 11:01:34
Good signals on coal and the OlympicsPublish date: 2009-04-24 10:45:28
Tips for the London MarathonPublish date: 2009-04-23 17:29:27
Missed the Budget, saw why it matteredPublish date: 2009-04-22 23:09:31
Football good, politics bad. AllegedlyPublish date: 2009-04-22 00:00:24
The Great Wall gets greaterPublish date: 2009-04-21 09:55:22
Two sides to police storyPublish date: 2009-04-20 11:39:54
Budgets, Balls, billionaires and Susan BoylePublish date: 2009-04-19 12:31:45
Do muscles have memories?Publish date: 2009-04-18 09:44:44
Bring back standing at footballPublish date: 2009-04-17 14:50:22
When Facebook friends fall outPublish date: 2009-04-16 12:29:16
Guardian sightings and the email and bath plug agendaPublish date: 2009-04-15 11:32:16
The spin is all in the prismPublish date: 2009-04-14 09:22:41
A setback, not a crisisPublish date: 2009-04-13 12:55:19
The real lessons from Damian McBridePublish date: 2009-04-12 10:49:47
Will English always be the dominant language?Publish date: 2009-04-11 10:02:02
On the pipes and what makes a ScotPublish date: 2009-04-10 11:06:20
John Prescott lazy? NO WAYPublish date: 2009-04-09 09:11:31
David Frost is seventyPublish date: 2009-04-08 08:48:38
The Speaker, BBC2, tonight and tomorrow 8pmPublish date: 2009-04-07 14:25:31
Obama, colds and being woken by Korean missilesPublish date: 2009-04-06 11:59:24
When a call matters more than protocolPublish date: 2009-04-05 11:33:42
Green Cities Champions LeaguePublish date: 2009-04-04 10:19:53
Could Cameron have delivered the G20 deal?Publish date: 2009-04-03 10:11:59
Of Benn and BonoPublish date: 2009-04-02 08:21:16
Memo to Sarko - allez vite a LondresPublish date: 2009-04-01 08:46:17
Happy April Fool's DayPublish date: 2009-04-01 01:44:05
Eurostar, Le Monde and a thought for the G20 sherpasPublish date: 2009-03-31 09:17:22
Why Kevin Rudd made an impactPublish date: 2009-03-30 10:24:41
Pre-G20 hype matters less than post-G20 processPublish date: 2009-03-29 13:17:28
The Damned UnitedPublish date: 2009-03-28 10:37:04
A hobby horse, a plug and a bit of sportPublish date: 2009-03-27 10:22:23
Cloughie - he had a lot to be big-headed aboutPublish date: 2009-03-26 09:38:36
A sad sight of the old fearing the youngPublish date: 2009-03-25 17:03:07
Post-modern, post-structural, or bullshit?Publish date: 2009-03-25 08:18:02
Learning the right lessons from ObamaPublish date: 2009-03-24 08:53:15
Lazy Dave needs to keep an eye on lazy KenPublish date: 2009-03-23 11:16:14
Farewell favourite restaurant, hello hometownPublish date: 2009-03-22 08:18:09
Dave, Danny and have the Tories really changed?Publish date: 2009-03-21 08:55:13
Life beyond Dover ...Publish date: 2009-03-20 10:11:21
My friends in The New Statesman - Fergie, Fiona, Tony, Sarah, Kevin, 'Dacre,' and a great GB idea for the G20Publish date: 2009-03-18 10:38:22
Iraq, Iran, GB, Obama and diplomatic chessPublish date: 2009-03-17 10:07:13
The Age of StupidPublish date: 2009-03-16 08:27:13
Is all change good?Publish date: 2009-03-15 10:00:06
The pressure of being a post-modern sex godPublish date: 2009-03-14 10:00:55
Cameron still hasn't sealed the deal with businessPublish date: 2009-03-13 09:21:49
Stand up for social workersPublish date: 2009-03-12 08:31:17
Surely Malcolm Tucker could have told Armando Ianucci ... You can't spin a spinnerPublish date: 2009-03-11 10:58:25
Start of a new approach from Labour?Publish date: 2009-03-10 09:54:12
A peace process still strongPublish date: 2009-03-09 08:21:05
Day of destiny for the real footballer of the yearPublish date: 2009-03-08 09:21:06
Private advice to Peggy Mitchell - the leaked note in fullPublish date: 2009-03-07 08:17:21
Boris, the Tories and the tummy-tickling poodle pressPublish date: 2009-03-06 09:49:37
A day in the life of the self-obsessed TV reporterPublish date: 2009-03-05 07:55:47
GB - good speech, well deliveredPublish date: 2009-03-04 19:31:05
Notes on the environment, a role in EastEndersPublish date: 2009-03-04 10:58:56
She may be my 'wife' but it is time to rebut!Publish date: 2009-03-03 10:52:59
Some speeches matter more than othersPublish date: 2009-03-02 12:04:45
Mental health and the Carling Cup FinalPublish date: 2009-03-01 09:08:17
Inside the chocolate factoryPublish date: 2009-02-28 10:23:59
GB on the G20, JP on Jeremy KylePublish date: 2009-02-27 09:14:36
Charity and the credit crunch, please give generously!Publish date: 2009-02-26 08:55:12
Why oh why are the Tories not home and dry?Publish date: 2009-02-24 09:44:59
Me, Dermot and ten top songsPublish date: 2009-02-23 10:02:19
Names round-upPublish date: 2009-02-22 08:43:39
What's in a name?Publish date: 2009-02-21 09:58:14
Editing the New StatesmanPublish date: 2009-02-20 11:42:36
Salute Peter M’s proper use of the F wordPublish date: 2009-02-19 09:58:58
Labour's communications challenge for the NHSPublish date: 2009-02-18 10:34:39
In praise of KeighleyPublish date: 2009-02-17 14:33:57
A night at the EmiratesPublish date: 2009-02-17 00:06:51
When marriage is testedPublish date: 2009-02-16 13:36:35
Spare me the myths and the whiningPublish date: 2009-02-15 13:29:50
Dave Cameron - is that all there is?Publish date: 2009-02-14 11:11:55
Boris Johnson: F is for ...Publish date: 2009-02-13 07:55:10
The Cameron vacuumPublish date: 2009-02-12 14:48:33
Lincoln, Obama, Blair and the 24 hour media culturePublish date: 2009-02-11 10:28:47
Eighteen interviews later ...Publish date: 2009-02-10 19:24:45
Time to talk about Time to Change on NewsnightPublish date: 2009-02-09 22:47:49
So that’s what they mean by online community?Publish date: 2009-02-08 12:12:51
First blogPublish date: 2009-02-05 15:23:57
Robert Jackson
2010-02-03 13:41:28Talking about HM Opposition and lack of leadership...at PMQ's today John Hemming - LD member for Birmingham Yardley - tabled a question about National Express unilaterally withdrawing the number 41 bus service in Birmingham.
The bus contracts for the West Midlands are awarded by CENTRO which takes its political leadership from reps from the towns and cities in the region. The majority of these are Tory or Tory/LD controlled. Indeed John Hemmings was party to putting the Tories and Lib Dems into Power in Birmingham in 2004.
So really the question about National Express withdrawing the number 41 bus should be placed at the feet of John Hemmings' political partners - the Tories who run CENTRO.
peter
2010-02-03 12:47:42Nonsense - leadership is primarily about being proactive, not reactive. Brown is merely a manager amongst a grey sea of other managers, he has no business being an (unelected) Prime Minister. Mediocre at best - bye bye Gordon.
s chapman
2010-02-03 12:41:25Mr Gardner - classic head in the sand comment from a labour supporter in denial.GB lead us into a debt party that will leave the biggest hangover ever...and like AC once you have this total arrogance that whatever you do/say/write is always right then of course you have confidence,however misplaced it is.Lets face if you spend 1 TRILLION quid on the UK economy to save it don't you think it should have had some impression, I mean jesus if the UK economy didn't turn around on that back of that then we really do have a massive problem.Get real guys we need a change....and a BIG apology
Bill Gardner
2010-02-03 02:29:12Not enough credit is given to GB for the style as well as the substance of the recovery. GB's greatest strength during the recession is that he has maintained the appearance of control throughout(not exactly his forte). And he certainly looked like World Statesman of the Year at the London Summit. In a crisis of confidence it is hard to over-estimate the importance of appearing on top of things as well as making the right decisions. Also Labour MPs all strictly on message. Just like the good old days!
Alan Quinn
2010-02-02 19:47:02Never mind giving advice to Dave you need to give some to George too. No one from the tories would appear on Jeremy Vine's show today to talk about the tories changing their mind yet again on the economy.
In fact as Jezza said no one (except a racis)t would come on live to join in the debate and side with the tories.
Finally on Clare Short laying into TB. Didn't she vote for the Iraq war?
Patrick James
2010-02-02 19:13:31I do think that AC's blog entry is very true.
I would add that a major mistake the Conservatives have made is to put all their eggs in one basket. They have everything staked on Cameron, but now the public are going off him. In addition to his multi-faces and inconsistency I think that the public are just getting bored looking at him! He is hugely over-exposed. The affair the public had with him last year should have been happening now for the Conservatives. Instead they are just fed up with him.
I think that Labour are doing the right thing by starting the process required for parliament and the public to look at an AV electoral system. As well as this being, imho, the right thing to do for parliament, I believe a very large number of Labour voters have wandered to the Lib Dems. This might help some of them to return to Labour.
Charlie
2010-02-02 19:01:18AC a couple of questions for the spinmeister:
- (re Claire Short) Was Cabinet(and subsequently Parliament) really expected to make a balanced judgement as to whether or not to endorse your/Blair's view, based upon a carefully selected precis of the Legal Advice available prior to the Iraq War?
Hopefully Lord Chilcott will probe a little further into this in due course.
- Is Gordon Brown's last minute conversion to PR just a cynical attempt to curry favour with wavering LAB/LIBDEM voters ?
- Should Mandy and his Entourage be Jetting to Davos BA FIRST CLASS at our expense in these straightened times ?
Margaret McDougall
2010-02-02 14:53:14Just watched lunchtime news. BBC obviously obsessed with Clare Short laying into Blair as she has done many times. Stayed with it for the late coverage of Osborne. He does NOT know what he is talking about. Scary
olli issakainen
2010-02-02 12:44:59In 2008 the support for the Tories was 48% - now it is 40% or even less (the Conservatives need 40% and they need to be 10% ahead of Labour).
Nowadays leader´s character is more important in the elections than his policies. It has been said that so far Labour has been unable to tarnish the reputation of David Cameron. But he has managed to do it by himself.
With all the money and army of researchers, the Tories do not seem to be able to get a single thing right. Latest example of their flip-flopping is, of course, cutting public spending.
It seems to me that Policy Exchange´s report Controlling Public Spending and Government Deficits was partly behind the Tories´ original plans. In this report Sweden and Finland are used as examples. But we in Scandinavia have big governments and less poverty, so I would not compare us with Britain.
Will it be the case that only the Mirror, New Statesman and IoS will support Labour in the coming election? I think that now that David Cameron and George Osborne have had their 15 minutes of fame, it is time for British media to get behind Labour.
The reason for this being that Labour can be trusted to manage the recovery and repair public finances. But can we trust the Tories to do the same? Are you thinking what I am thinking..?
George Johnstone
2010-02-02 11:20:31Not seen FT but sounds a bit rose tinted to me. I am a small businessman and whilst things are certainly not 30s style depression it is tough out there
Charlie Harper
2010-02-02 11:19:34Leadership is also sticking to what you believe in. Does Gordon Brown really believe in PR? No. Just doing it in the hope he can limp on with the Libs in a hung parliament. Farewell strong government. Bad idea
jmedwards
2010-02-02 11:11:50If just one news vendor would have the balls to report on some *detail* for once (without worrying they'll frighten their audience with something so terrifying as detail), and explain why we are in a worse situation to handle this crisis than any other comparable country, things would swing the other way.
It'd only take a two page dossier on the Government's (read: Brown's) poor (and sometimes deceitful) economic performance and handling of investment and spending over the last decade.
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