Bury North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18070 (40.19%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.06%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.85%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.29%)
Majority: 2243 (4.99%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17114 (42.4%)
Conservative: 14878 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (15.1%)
Other: 2295 (5.7%)
Majority: 2236 (5.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16204 (36.5%)
Labour: 19130 (43%)
Liberal Democrat: 6514 (14.7%)
BNP: 1790 (4%)
UKIP: 476 (1.1%)
Other: 325 (0.7%)
Majority: 2926 (6.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16413 (36.6%)
Labour: 22945 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5430 (12.1%)
Majority: 6532 (14.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20657 (37.5%)
Labour: 28523 (51.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4536 (8.2%)
Referendum: 1337 (2.4%)
Majority: 7866 (14.3%)
Boundary changes: The only significant alteration is the loss of most of Unsworth ward to Bury South.
Profile: A Conservative/Labour marginal that on paper provides the Conservatives with their best hope of a gain in Greater Manchester. The seat covers the three towns of Tottington, Ramsbottom and Bury itself. This is an area of traditional, Lancashire former mill towns that have remained comparatively affluent and reinvented themselves as a Manchester commuter belt.
Two thirds of the councillors here are now Conservative. Labour`s support is strongest in Bury itself. To the North Tottington and Ramsbottom, set in the West Pennine Moors, are more Conservative. The seat was represented by Alistair Burt, now the Tory MP for North East Bedfordshire, until it was won by Labour in the 1997 landslide.
Current MP: David Nuttall (Conservative) Educated at Aston Comprehensive, Rotherham and subsequently obtained an external law degree from London University. Solicitor and Notary Public. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 1997, Morecambe & Lunesdale 2001 and Bury North 2005. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside Region in the 1999 European Elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84261
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 5.6%
White: 92.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 5.5%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 78.2%
Muslim: 5.3%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.9%
Social Housing: 15.2% (Council: 11.2%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.7%
Bury North had UKIP and BNP candidates at the last election. They received 1% and 4% of the vote respectively.
Conservative – 44%
Labour – 33%
Lib Dem – 20%
Whoever stood for Lab here would have a backlash considering the circumstances of the the previous MP.Tories will gain this seat and probably by more than expected.
CON GAIN
I expected worse for Labour here
There were a number of seats around the country where Labour did surprisingly well in areas where the normal explanations don’t apply, such as being in Merseyside, Scotland, inner London, etc. The best explanation is probably that greater demographic change has taken place in these seats than anyone had thought.
I would have hoped for a slightly larger swing here, but it’s still a satisfactory Con result.
David Chaytor to stand trial on 6th December 2010.
I expected a much bigger Conservative majority here but the swing was lower than Bury South.
Interesting that in adjacent Bolton NE there was zero swing.
But in Rossendale to the north of them there was a big swing.
Yes, the North West seemed to be really patchy.
There’s a slight pattern of being close to Merseyside it gets poorer for the Tories (that is in areas where they had a chance), but the pattern is not very consistent atall.
I found this a slightly disappointing result, although it was a victory.
It’s rather similar to 1979 when Labour did much worse in Lancashire than in Greater Manchester, where the Tories made no gains.