Sleaford and North Hykeham
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26829 (50.8%)
Labour: 13869 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 9498 (18%)
Other: 2649 (5%)
Majority: 12960 (24.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26855 (50.3%)
Labour: 14150 (26.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9710 (18.2%)
UKIP: 2682 (5%)
Majority: 12705 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 24190 (49.7%)
Labour: 15568 (32%)
Liberal Democrat: 7894 (16.2%)
UKIP: 1067 (2.2%)
Majority: 8622 (17.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23358 (43.9%)
Labour: 18235 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 8063 (15.2%)
Referendum: 2942 (5.5%)
Other: 578 (1.1%)
Majority: 5123 (9.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Douglas Hogg(Conservative) born 1945, Chelsea, the son of Lord Hailsham whose title he inherited in 2001. Educated at Eton and Oxford Universirt. Barrister. MP for Grantham 1979-1997, Sleaford and North Hykeham since 1997. PPS to Leon Brittan 1982-1983, government whip 1983-1984. Parliamentary under-secretary 1986-1989, Minister of state at the DTI 1989-1990, foreign office 1990-1992. Served in the cabinet as Miniter of Agriculture from 1995 to 1997. In opposition he has been one of the most rebellious Conservative MPs. In 2009 he recieved a large amount of attention during the expenses scandal having been accused of claiming for the cleaning of the moat around his house, something he denied. He will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Stephen Phillips (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister.
James Normington (Labour) Born 1980. Educated at Royds Comprehensive and St Andrews University. Barrister, specialising in Housing Law.
David Harding-Price (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Lincoln Grammar School and Manchester Metropolitan University. Mental health nurse. Contested Newark 2001, Sleaford and North Hykeham 2005.
Roger Doughty (UKIP)
Mike Clayton (BNP)
Richard Broom (Jury Team)
Marianne Overton (Independent) Lincolnshire county councillor.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99850
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 21.6%
Over 60: 24.2%
Born outside UK: 4.2%
White: 98.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.3%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.7%
Social Housing: 12.1% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.1%
Well it will have an impact in some Shaun. For example Feltham & Heston would probably be a routine Labour hold if it weren’t for Alan Keen’s involvement in this issue. I still think he will hold on but not without difficulty. Luton South would, it is true, be a Conservative target in this election whether or not the issue impacts on the seat. And if it’s close in Harrow East, which it still could be, it could be a determining factor there too. In Bury North too although David Chaytor is not standing it could add a bit to the pro-Tory swing. However Shaun broadly speaking you are correct, it won’t have anything like the impact that it would have done had there been an election, say, 6 months ago.
And of course, on an UNS several polls – and even NBeale’s WMA at the moment – suggest a Labour hold in Brentford & Isleworth, but not many folk would currently predict that. If the Tories got 4-5% more votes than Labour (my current prediction) but the Tories held that seat (also my current prediction) surely that would be the expenses issue writ large.
What’s going on? I find myself agreeing with Shaun Bennett! If an MP is standing down, I expect the expenses issue will have minimal impact on the chances of their party holding the constituency.
Of course, it has indirect effects that could still be relevant. Incumbency is usually thought to be worth a couple of percent, iirc, and any change of candidate, whether under a cloud of expenses or not, means that such an advantage is lost to that party this time. The other indirect effect is the ‘plague on all your houses’ effect, whereby a proportion of voters pretty much everywhere will decide not to vote, or not to vote for the parties they associate most with the expenses issue. But I can’t see that causing a swing from one of the parties caught up in it to another one: unless something happens between now and polling day to suddenly mean the mud sticks better to one of parties than the others.
Lincolnshire County Councillor Marianne Overton standing as an Ind here
Richard Broom standing here for Jury Team
Cons Hold= 14,000 maj