Islwyn
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21795 (64.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 4193 (12.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4132 (12.2%)
Conservative: 3708 (10.9%)
Other: 42 (0.1%)
Majority: 17602 (52%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3358 (10.9%)
Labour: 19687 (63.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3873 (12.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3947 (12.8%)
Majority: 15740 (51%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 2543 (8%)
Labour: 19505 (61.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4196 (13.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3767 (11.9%)
Other: 1680 (5.3%)
Majority: 15309 (48.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2864 (7.9%)
Labour: 26995 (74.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 3064 (8.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2272 (6.2%)
Referendum: 1209 (3.3%)
Majority: 23931 (65.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Don Touhig (Labour) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Daniel Thomas (Conservative)
Chris Evans (Labour)
Ashgar Ali (Liberal Democrat)
Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru)
Jason Crew (UKIP)
John Voisey (BNP)
Dave Rees (Independent)
Paul Taylor (Independent)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 72903
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 24%
Over 60: 20.9%
Born outside UK: 1.4%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 65.1%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 11%
No Qualifications 16-74: 40.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73.1%
Social Housing: 20.5% (Council: 15.8%, Housing Ass.: 4.7%)
Privately Rented: 4.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3%
Well Penddu the last breakdown of the marginals poll suggested a Tory gain in Vale of Clwyd, but the last all-Wales poll suggested otherwise, as have numerous other polls both of marginals and of the whole of Britain. I think you’re wrong to put it into the lost column bearing in mind the current situation. I do agree with you about Vale of Glamorgan, W Carms & S Pembs & Cardiff N. The shaky ones could be right in some cases but I would be very surprised if Newport E is that close.
OK – we can agree to diagree about VoC.
Newport East I originally had as a LD longshot, but on the curent ratings it would have to be exteremely shaky. In fact as I see it Labour could be in the odd position of the LDS deciding which of the two Newport seats Labour hold….. A strong LD performance could not only give them Newport East, but would deny the Conservatives a gain in Newport West.
It seems Labour can have one or the other….
Lab maj 15,000
Labour and Lib Dems must now be neck and neck in the final furlong.
Not here….
He probably means here Jasper. Nationally he would expect the LDs to win twice as many votes as Labour.
If the LDs do do well in the general election, it would be very upsetting that some of his predictions did actually turn out to be true anyway.