Folkestone and Hythe
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 28096 (54.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14935 (29.1%)
Labour: 6360 (12.4%)
Other: 1893 (3.7%)
Majority: 13161 (25.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26161 (53.9%)
Labour: 6053 (12.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 14481 (29.9%)
Green: 688 (1.4%)
UKIP: 619 (1.3%)
Other: 501 (1%)
Majority: 11680 (24.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20645 (45%)
Labour: 9260 (20.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 14738 (32.1%)
UKIP: 1212 (2.6%)
Majority: 5907 (12.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20313 (39%)
Labour: 12939 (24.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13981 (26.9%)
Referendum: 4188 (8%)
Other: 629 (1.2%)
Majority: 6332 (12.2%)
Boundary changes: gains the ward of Saxon Shore from Ashford in order to reduce the size of the rapidly growing Ashford constituency. This ends the conterminosity of Shepway and the Folkestone and Hythe constituency.
Profile: This is the southernmost section of the Kent coastline, including the cinque ports of Hythe and Romsey. The local economy has been heavily influenced by the opening of the Channel Tunnel. As well as the towns of Folkestone and Hythe, the constituency includes the rural villages around them such as Elham, Lyminge and Lympne and Romney Marsh. The constituency is also the site of Dungeoness Power Station, Saltwood castle (the former home of Lord Deedes, and Alan Clark) and Port Lympne Wild Animal Park (founded by the late John Aspinall, who was the Referendum party candidate for the seat in 1997, managing one of the party`s best performances).
While Folkestone and Hythe appears to be obvious Conservative territory, there has always been a strong Liberal presence in the seat. During the 2005 general election the seat was targeted by the Liberal Democrats and recieved several visits from Charles Kennedy in an attempt to unseat the then Conservative leader, Michael Howard. Shepway council, which until the most recent review was conterminous with the constituency, was Liberal Democrat controlled until 2004, but following the capping of their council tax the group leader resigned and the Liberal Democrat group on the council split into rival groupings. As of 2006 the council is run by a coalition between the Conservatives and the People First party, the name adopted by the rival Liberal Democrat grouping on the council.
Outgoing MP: Michael Howard(Conservative) born 1941, Gorseinon to a Romanian Jewish family. Educated at Llanelli Grammar School and Peterhouse, Cambridge. Worked as a barrister prior to his election specialising in planning. Stood in Liverpool Edge Hill in 1966, but did not finally enter the Commons until 1983. Served in various government positions under Thatcher and Major, most notably Home Secretary from 1993-1997. Following the Conservative defeat unsuccessfully contested the party leadership. He served briefly as shadow foreign secretary under William Hague before retiring from frontline politics. Returned as shadow chancellor under IDS and became the Conservative party leader in an uncontested election following Iain Duncan Smith`s removal. He stepped down from the party leadership after the 2005 election and has indicated his intention to step down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Damian Collins (Conservative) born 1974. Educated at St Mary`s High School and Oxford University. Managing director of an advertising company. Contested Northampton North 2005.
Donald Worsley (Labour)
Lynne Beaumont (Liberal Democrat) Shepway councillor.
Frank McKenna (UKIP).
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 101150
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 25.5%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 97.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 75.5%
Hindu: 1%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 14.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.2%
Owner-Occupied: 73.2%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 8.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 11.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.6%
This could be a dark horse if the Labour vote gets squeezed by the Lib dems they could make this a very marginal tory seat. Unlikely to turn Lib dem but who knows. It’s been tory long enough and if the voters turn now that Michael Howard is retiring it could go Lib dem.
Con Hold
Maj 14 100
This is the sort of seat in which a boost to the LibDems following Nick Clegg’s TV debate success could help them. But in general terms the LibDems are on the defensive here after a strong challenge in the 1980s, and local government success that has brought them the problems of being in the spotlight.
I think this seat is less likely now for the LibDems than one where the Tory majority is of a similar size but the LibDems are moving forwards.