Wirral South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16892 (42.5%)
Conservative: 13168 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8568 (21.6%)
Other: 1076 (2.7%)
Majority: 3724 (9.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13168 (33.2%)
Labour: 16892 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8568 (21.6%)
UKIP: 616 (1.6%)
Other: 460 (1.2%)
Majority: 3724 (9.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13841 (34.8%)
Labour: 18890 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7087 (17.8%)
Majority: 5049 (12.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17495 (36.4%)
Labour: 24499 (50.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5018 (10.4%)
Referendum: 768 (1.6%)
Other: 315 (0.7%)
Majority: 7004 (14.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Ben Chapman(Labour) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Jeff Clarke (Conservative) Barrister specialising in criminal law. Chester councillor since 2004. Contested Wirral West for the Liberal Democrats in 2005, Preseli Pembrokeshire in 1997. Joined the Conservative party after the election of David Cameron.
Paula Southwood (Liberal Democrat) born Preston. Business analyst. Wirral councillor since 2006.
David Scott (UKIP) Contested Wirral South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70944
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 25.6%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 82.3%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 22.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.3%
Owner-Occupied: 82.6%
Social Housing: 10.5% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.2%
I cannot post on the Wirral West thread still so will post here – Cllr David Kirwan, a former Conservative now Independant, will stand in Wirral West.
Chapman has annonced he is standing down. Another one bites the dust!!
I did worry for a long time that if I predicted Con gain in Wirral South I would end up being teased and called Gloy Plopwell.
Now I think the Conservatives are likely to take both seats.
Id agree with that, especially as the Labour-Lib Dem council is none too popular at the moment.
I think I won’t make any predictions just at the moment because things are in too much of a state of flux. We need to wait a few weeks and see whether things settle down again, and also whether people like Esther Rantzen really are going to be contesting a lot of seats under a Martin Bell style banner.
Nadine Dorries has written quite a scathing piece on her dealings with Esther Rantzen;
http://blog.dorries.org/blog.aspx
“I did worry for a long time that if I predicted Con gain in Wirral South I would end up being teased and called Gloy Plopwell.”
Why? The change from Blair/Howard to Brown/Cameron was always likely to hurt Labour in middle class constituencies like this one.
“Now I think the Conservatives are likely to take both seats.”
It’s looking like the main battle in the Wirral will be in neither of the Wirral seats but in Wallasey instead.
Thanks Richard for answering the point elsewhere about the CD – I think that sounds credible to me….
Well, yes, it certainly sounds like the Conservatives have put in a lot of effort in Wallasey and deserve to do well – I’m sceptical they’d go the whole way to be honest, but maybe it’s possible.
I think that it is a shame that the Wirral West section has been suspended. The problem in this particular constituency, is that there is a solid ‘old school’ retired Conservative block, that thinks that this seat should be naturally Conservative. I suspect that Esther McVey is viewed to some people as a ‘maverick’ and maybe slightly feminist, and this is why Labour held on last time around.
I suspect that the recent difficulty for the Conservatives in Wirral West, Wirral South and Ellesmere Port and Neston, is that there is an inherent distrust of the Conservatives in this region (what I refer to as the ‘Merseyside’ factor) and nothing to do with the candidate – the Conservatives should have really won Wirral South last time as well.
What I can guarantee is that a party with ‘in-fighting’ won’t win a seat of this type. I would urge everyone involved in the debate on this particular seat is that in a democracy, a healthy and non-personal debate is essential. If someone wants to stand as an independent candidate, then so be it – but let us have a debate – our democracy needs this!
I agree Neil – I think Esther McVey is a superb candidate and deserves to be in Parliament – I’m not sure what David Kirwan thinks he is going to achieve by standing against her, other than helping Labour.
GE Prediction:
Conservative: 19500
Labour: 13000
Lim Dems: 10,000
Conservative – 45.9% +12.7
Labour – 30.6% -11.9
Lib Dem – 23.5% +1.9
“I did worry for a long time that if I predicted Con gain in Wirral South I would end up being teased and called Gloy Plopwell.
Now I think the Conservatives are likely to take both seats.”
I think the Tories will win 3, possibly 4 seats on Merseyside.
Wirral West, Wirral South, Sefton Central and Southport (in order of most likely).
I wasn’t convinced about Sefton Central for a long time.
In fact, it was Merseymike and Galloglass who argued it is likely.
The Lib Dems are after another PPC, so Paula Southwood must have resigned