Welsh Labour was in decline before Ron Davies's sudden departure
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Harold Wilson, who won four general elections in the 1960s and 70s, sought to establish Labour as "the natural party of government". But in much of Wales, Labour had been in that position for generations. In Rhondda East and West, for example, the Labour vote wasn't so much counted as weighed by the hundredweight in coal sacks. That was the case throughout industrial south Wales. In north and mid Wales too, Labour held sway in the most unlikely of constituencies: Anglesey, Caernarfon, Meirioneth, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire were each represented by a Labour MP. Mid Wales too, traditionally the bedrock of Welsh liberalism, had a Labour MP in Brecon and Radnor. The mining areas around Wrexham and the Deeside industrial belt too were similarly held by Labour. But the pattern of politics changed dramatically in the first Welsh assembly election of 1999. Plaid Cymru swept through Labour's backyards. Rhondda, Islwyn, Llanelli and Conwy (now largely Aberconwy) were all Plaid wins.
Margaret Thatcher at the high tide of Welsh Tory fortunes in 1983
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True, the traumatic effects of then Welsh Labour leader Ron Davies's "moment of madness" on Clapham Common in 1998 and Downing Street's subsequent handling of it sent shock waves not just through the party in Wales, but throughout the Welsh body politic. That one event did much to destabilise Labour's confidence in the 1999 election. But the reality was that the change in Labour's electoral fortunes had started much earlier. Gwynfor Evans's victory in the 1966 Carmarthen by-election is often regarded as the beginning of Plaid Cymru's march into government at Labour's expense. Trade union structure But far more significant in Plaid's battle with Labour were the first elections of 1974, with Dafydd Wigley and Dafydd Elis Thomas both defeating incumbent Labour MPs. Despite the mostly rural nature of Meirioneth, Labour was strong in the constituency by virtue of the slate industry in Blaenau Ffestiniog. Similarly, Caernarfonshire, held by Goronwy Roberts from 1945, was staunchly Labour, again because of the dominance of the slate industry in the Ogwen and Nantlle Valleys. The decline of that industry also meant the decline of the trade union structure on which Labour depended so heavily.
Plaid Cymru beat Labour in Rhondda in the 1999 assembly election
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More significantly, both Wigley and Elis-Thomas both held the seats for Plaid in the subsequent elections. Those two gains at Labour's expense had a profound impact on the bonds which had held the loyalty of Labour voters in those constituencies. The decline of Wales' traditional base of heavy industry has also contributed to the decline of Labour's electoral fortunes. The trade union organisation on which Labour relied upon so heavily in elections also melted away. Another element in Labour's decline was Plaid's success in transforming itself from what the Welsh language playwright Gareth Miles once memorably described as "a small and nervous party of the Welsh middle class. The party's new name, Plaid Cymru: the Party of Wales, sent a message to all parts of the country that the nationalists aspired to represent constituencies far beyond the traditional Welsh-speaking heartlands. Meanwhile, Conservative fortunes have fluctuated dramatically. In Margaret Thatcher's second election victory in 1983, there were a remarkable 14 Welsh Tory MPs. By 1997, though, there were none. Same again in 2001, but the Tory fightback began in 2005, with three Conservatives heading from Wales to Westminster. The Liberal Democrats have been relatively stable, having returned at least two MPs, and at most four, since 1974. Labour is still by far the largest party in the assembly and had 29 of 40 Welsh MPs in the last parliament.
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