Opinium and ComRes polls
Two more polls – Opinium in the Daily Express has figures of CON 32%(-7), LAB 26%(-5), LDEM 29%(+12). The Liberal Democrat are up a mighty twelve points from the company that normally gives them the lowest ratings.
ComRes meanwhile was supposed to come out at 10pm, but given the embargo already seems to have been broken by several sources I may as well put up the figures. Topline voting intention is CON 32%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(-1). No significant change from their previous poll, which was also completed after the debate.
We’ve still got at least YouGov to come tonight, but looking at the polls so far we are seeing a pretty consistent picture. All the polls over the last day or two have the Conservatives at 32%-33%, most have Labour between 26%-28% (Angus Reid have them a bit lower as usual). What variation there is comes more in Liberal Democrat support, which ranges from 28% right up to 33% in YouGov’s poll yesterday.
Filed under: Communicate, Opinium, Voting Intention
The BBC seat calculator, for instance, gives the Cons an extra 8 seats than the UNS on here, on the YouGov figures. So Labour would be the largest party by just 2 seats (i.e. would really be down to marginals/individual seats!!!)
@donald pond
I think you’re wrong.Labour needed a Lib Dem revival to rob Cameron of his majority.That’s why they’ve been going soft on Clegg for months.
I still think the Tories will top the poll, with Labour second and LDs third. But with enough undecideds voting LD to deprive the Tories of the gains they need.
SUE-yes I can see that.
I used Electoral Calculus.
Don’t know why the difference-does anyone actually know the outcome now?
PT
The betting site is Poiltical Betting – you need to go there.
Matt – the BBC will be using a swingometer based on Rallings and Thrasher notionals. There shouldn’t be a systemic difference, but for any particular figures there will be likely be small differences one way or the other.
COLIN
erm..tonights YouGov-33/27/31 gives a UNS of Cons largest party :-
261/245/112
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Actually, it does not.
C: 248 , L: 258, LD 113
Colin – Electoral calculus will give slightly different results because if isn’t UNS. It used to be a proportional sort of swing, but they then adapted it to stop it projecting Lib Dem wipe outs, so it’s a sort of hybrid between UNS and Proportional now.
Hypothetical discussion about the largest party are slightly pointless when the result is this close – in reality it will be down to regional variations and the individual marginal races on the night.
Long way to go yet…certainly time for another 10% swing to the Lib Dems….
Spotter
@Richard O
I think you have placed your bet on @Date & most seats ‘ market.
If you had gone for the ‘most seats’ market instead you would have got 5.2 – 1.
Could make a joke here regarding Tory spending, but I will resist
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No, the way Betfair works is that my odds were 5.2 as a decimal expression which is what betfair uses, which translates to 4.2-1.
Accurate Tory spending.
@Sue,
On betfair, Greens odds on winning Brighton Pavilion are shortening all the time. They are now under evens, so strong favourites! Somebody must know something?
rich
@Nick Hadley
My question to the old political wizard is this. When are you going to put your creation, Mr Clegg, back in his box! Don’t leave it too late, now.
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Whilst I do believe that everything is going according to Labour Party strategy, it is wrong to assume the Lib Dems have had no hand in achieving their current position.
In fact, the NC strategy of going in hard against GB and Labour seemed strange to me at first, given that there is significant common ground between the two parties and they generally do better at the expense of Tories rather than Labour.; and that the larger share of their target seats are Tory held.
However, the effect has been to make them seem like a viable alternative to Labour at a time when Tory support is weakening significantly.
IMHO the only party whose election strategy is not working is the Tories. In fact, I’m not sure they really know what their strategy is, or should be.
This is the biggest surprise of all to me about this election. Both Labour and the Lib Dems had to take risks, the Tories didn’t. Safe and soft would have won it for them imho. So why they have taken so many risks is really beyond me. Given the funding they have and the strategists they have employed and the countless ad agencies etc. it really is amazing.
I guess it stems from their view that people want change and they don’t want Gordon Brown. So if they keep saying it’s time for a change and we don’t want another 5 years of Gordon Brown do we, then people will vote for them. This is far too simplistic and underestimates the electorate. Having taken those points as given, they then decide to embark on a series of policy proposals that leave them where they are now, viewed as the party of cuts in jobs and services, plus tax incentives for the wealthy and for one particular type of family unit.
Instead of being seen as the party of recovery, they have allowed themselves to be portrayed as the party planning to wreck recovery.
Anthony,
Given the leaks, are you able to confirm tonight’s YouGov figures ?
May yet be too early to tell, but it would seem that vote shares are beginning to settlle – at about C +/- 32; LD+/- 30; Lab +/- 28.
May I again remind all posters to please not make assumption based on UNS from 2005 results in this environment.
At the risk of spooking the markets, the outcome on 7th May is totally up in the air at present, and we could have anything from any one party scraping a majority to 200 / 200 / 200 + 50 others.
This is a new ball-game the like of which we have not seen in our life-times (unless there are some centenarians out there who remember the 1924 election). The key to this election is now a question of nerves and who blinks first. Thursday’s Foreign Affairs debate is going to be fascinating. If it too produces a clear leader, we could see another surge, which in turn will make the last debate a cliff-hanger – especially if this Thursday’s winner is not Clegg.
Gary
The LD are not going to get 36% + in the GE! That is complete fantasy talk. There is no polling evidence to support that.
This is as good as it gets for the LD. There are riding the wave of unprecedented surge in the polls. This was because of a unprecedented media/election event – the debate. The next two debates will not be as relevant or exciting for the media. Though obviously still relevant.
They were polling 18-22% the morning of the debates. This is not about there policies! The debate ended less than 96 hours ago. These things take time to settle down.
ANTHONY-thanks-yes I use its “YouGov Swing” option !!
…which makes it’s difference with you a little frustrating.
AW,
My comment in moderation ? System overload ?
@ STEVE D
“Instead of being seen as the party of recovery, they have allowed themselves to be portrayed as the party planning to wreck recovery.”
Portrayed thus by GB-yes of course.
But the electorate don’t buy that line-or Cons would not be in the lead, given the importance voters attach to the economy.
Two things happened last Thursday which caused all this:-
1)DC -for some reason best klnown to his advisers-was turned into an automaton. His animated, committed, confident self from conference & manifesto launch went missing.
2) NC brilliantly harnessed the antipathy towards Westminster by posing as the Anti Party Party.
@Colin
Yes of course portrayed by GB and Labour.
It is my view that they shouldn’t have had the opportunity to do that and had the Tories taken a less risky strategy and hadn’t gone all guns blazing week one over NI; it would have been much harder for GB and Labour to make that case.
Given the fall in Tory support it must be resonating with some voters and imho will continue to do so.
STEVE D
I disagree entirely.
I thought DC destroyed GB’s ridiculous portayal of £6bn savings in 2010/11 as apocalyptic-by the simple example that it is £1 in every £100.
You have yet another resignation today from Browns
Business Counci-the CEO of Rolls Royce voicing support for Cons stance.
But the public have moved on -they know they will get it in the neck on cute next year whoever is in power-and now NC has given them something with which to stick two fingers up to “politicians”.
How NC has pulled this off is beyonnd me- a TV audience Poll accolade-yes OK-It’s Britain has Talent .
…and look at the Facebook thing!
…but demographically balanced opinion polls-based on answers from people who may not have seen the tv debate–unbelievable.
He should get an Oscar for this-whatever else happens
I am in agreement at my shock over the extent of Cleggmania.
“Matt – the BBC will be using a swingometer based on Rallings and Thrasher notionals. There shouldn’t be a systemic difference, but for any particular figures there will be likely be small differences one way or the other.”
Thanks, Anthony.
Steve D
“Given the funding they have and the strategists they have employed and the countless ad agencies etc. it really is amazing”
No, its not despite these things, but because of them.
Politicians are used to claiming that they have/would allocate £x to such and such a program, and that by doing so they have secured a commensurate improvement.
Buying the services of the most expensive stategists and ad agencies who are aware that there is a big budget that has to be spent by people like them with an inflated opinion of their worth is no way to get value for money.
Let me tell you that there arn’t enough genuinely brilliant exceptional people around to do all the jobs that are assumed to have and need these superstars on superpay.
Most of us are just averagely talented. Bankers for example.
Some of the brightest people around are playing chess with their mates. Others are practicing the piano, doing clever things in laboratories or designing medical equipment.
The number of really brilliant people around is equal to those who need help with daily living, but there is an over-supply of people with an unrealistic assessment of their own importance and with remuneration to match.
NewLabour were foolish enough to be taken in by the Bankers. The Conservatives havn’t got value for money from their election budget.
And they both think that we should believe them when they say they have the right answers to get the country out of the economic mess?
Poll the marginals
That might reveal the real truth