Quentin Langley read Politics under Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher
at the University of Plymouth and now teaches Public Relations and Political
Communications at Cardiff University.
At first glance the polls seem extremely volatile and difficult to read. At second glance, this is only partly so. Nearly all the recent polls have shown the Conservatives at 35% +/-3 and Labour at 27%+/-3. The Lib Dems, however, seem to be at 27% +/-7. The consensus has them above Labour, and occasionally matching the Conservatives, but several polls, including the latest from MORI, have them in third place in the low 20s.
This raises two obvious questions. Why the big variation in the Lib Dem vote? And which pollster is likely to have it right? This is not a new phenomenon. In the run up to last year’s local and European elections, Populus was reporting Lib Dem numbers ten points, or 40%, below other pollsters.
Populus operates a slightly different methodology, though it is not intuitively obvious why this should produce a different result. Indeed, unlike last year, it currently doesn’t. Generally pollsters ask a fairly standard question: “if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? When an election has actually been called the question becomes “which party are you likely to support in the general election on the sixth of May?” Populus shows voters a list of parties to choose from. But why should this methodology produce a different result, and different only as to the support for the Lib Dems?
My theory is this: about 10% of the electorate are irreconcileables. They hate politicians, especially anyone they see as part of the establishment. Given a choice of three candidates they will choose the Lib Dems. Given a choice of four or more parties those same people will choose a fourth or fifth party.
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