www.fgks.org   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

April 10, 2010

Polish President, ally of David Cameron, feared dead in plane crash

Lech "President Lech Kaczynski was travelling with his wife from Warsaw to Smolensk airport, 220 miles southwest of Moscow," according to The Telegraph.

The Law and Justice Party of Mr Kaczynski are the allies of Tory MEPs in the European Parliament.

10am: William Hague has Tweeted:

Screen shot 2010-04-10 at 09.56.59

According to the BBC News the plane was full, carrying 125 people. It is feared that none have survived the crash.

Tim Montgomerie

11.30am Commenting on the death this morning of President Kaczynski, his wife, and many Polish officials and dignitaries, Timothy Kirkhope MEP, Deputy Chairman and Jan Zahradil MEP, Vice-President of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament said:

"We are deeply shocked and saddened to hear of this tragic loss. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the families of President Kaczynski and those onboard the plane, and to the Polish people who mourn the loss of so many public servants and dignitaries. The Polish people have lost a great man who played a pivotal role in the nation's history, helping to bring an end to the dark days of Communism. He played a major part in the post-Communist reconstruction of democracy and freedom in Poland. While we mourn his loss, we also celebrate his remarkable achievements during a lifetime of service to his nation."

Noon: From Dan Hannan MEP's blog;

"The reports in Britain will no doubt describe President Kaczyński as “a controversial figure” (the BBC has already started). Leftists resented him for pursuing a policy of lustration: that is, of requiring public servants to declare whether they had played a role in the previous Communist regime. These critics applauded a similar policy when it was imposed on former fascist countries after 1945 and, indeed, generally support the Spanish government in its attempts to reopen what happened under Franco but, for whatever reason, consider it tasteless to apply the same standard to former Communists. Lech Kaczyński was a patriot: a man who never collaborated with the dictators or accepted the occupation of his country by the Red Army. Some Polish politicians, who had made occasional compromises – muting their criticism in return for being allowed to take up foreign postings, for example – found his purism uncomfortable. But ordinary Poles admired Kaczyński, and elected him with a handsome majority."

1.30pm David Cameron's statement:

"Well its absolutely tragic news this and everyone’s first thoughts will be with the family and the friends of all those who died in what seems to have been absolutely tragic event. I knew President Kaczynski and he was a very brave, Polish patriot, someone who stood up for freedom, who suffered hugely under communism but always stood up for his beliefs and for his great faith in his country. And it’s a huge loss it’s a very black day for Poland indeed and we must be thinking of all those who’ve suffered in this terrible event.”

Posted at 09:48 AM in Law & Justice | | Comments (46)

April 09, 2010

Homosexuality, environmentalism and the real reasons why the British Conservatives are back

David Cameron launching the Tory campaign, across the River Thames from the Houses of Parliament.

6a00d83451b31c69e20133ec7e6de9970b-500wi I'm getting all sorts of calls from international media at present. To date I've had interview requests from Germany, France, Sweden, Korea, Turkey, Canada, Australia and the USA.

One request earlier in the week was typical; Please put us in touch with a gay, green Tory so we can give our audience a taste of the new Conservative Party. Of course, I said, I can point you in that direction. There are some candidates who will meet your specifications but you won't be giving your audience a full account of why David Cameron has restored the Conservative Party to the verge of power.

So for the benefit of international readers who are interested in the real reasons why the Tories are close to an election-winning opinion poll position, I've jotted down a few bullet points...

6a00d83451b31c69e201310fe96989970c-500wi The main reason why David Cameron is likely to be Britain's first Conservative Prime Minister in 13 years is Labour failure. The incumbent Labour government of Gordon Brown has doubled the national debt. The UK economy has suffered one of the longest and deepest recessions of any developed countries. Across a range of indicators Labour has failed. 80% of Tory members explain their own party's lead in terms of Labour failure.

Traditional Tory messages have twice rescued the party. Twice in recent years the Cameron project has got into difficulties. Once in the autumn of 2007 when Gordon Brown enjoyed a 'honeymoon' after he first became Prime Minister and in February and March of this year. In both periods a slide in Tory popularity was reversed by promises to cut taxes. In 2007 it was a promise to abolish inheritance tax for all but millionaires. In the last two weeks it has been a promise to stop nearly all of a £6bn 'jobs tax', planned by Labour.

CAMERONAT3 Without the 'modernisation' of the Conservative brand voters might not have listened to the tax cutting message. In underlining the importance of the two tax cuts (above) I don't mean to imply that David Cameron's modernisation of the Conservative Party (sometimes called 'decontamination') wasn't important. The changes that David Cameron has made to the Conservative Party - protecting funding for the National Health Service... developing an agenda for the poor... emphasising green issues... greater candidate diversity - mean that more people are willing to listen to the Conservative Party than when it was narrowly interested in just a few issues.

Where Cameron has modernised the Tory brand he has usually done so in a distinctively conservative way.  So, for example, in fighting poverty Mr Cameron has advocated strengthening marriage, tough requirements for those on welfare and school choice for parents. On the environment his Climate Change spokesman, Greg Clark, has said that no measure to reduce Britain's carbon footprint will be taken unless it delivers other benefits to the nation, eg in delivering cheaper household energy bills. It's worth noting that the environment is hardly being mentioned in the Tory campaign. In a leaflet summarising ten top Tory policies it was completely omitted.

Thatcher&Cameron Cameron's Conservative Party remains the party of Margaret Thatcher. If Cameron wins the General Election the membership of the parliamentary Conservative Party will be at least half new.  It will be the biggest intake of 'freshers' in modern times. And they are 'the children of Margaret Thatcher'.  They want welfare reform. Control of the trade unions. Lower, simpler taxes. They are pro-marriage. Sceptical about the European Union. They regard defence spending as a number one priority. Some disciples of Margaret Thatcher have, over the years, come to think of her only in revolutionary terms. Yes, she transformed the British economy but she was also a pragmatist. She left the BBC, National Health Service, welfare state, among other things, untouched. David Cameron will deserve the same latitude to be pragmatic as she enjoyed.

Will the Conservatives win? The scale of Labour's failure gives the Conservative Party a very good chance but I offer three cautionary thoughts:

  • The Conservatives need the biggest swing from Labour to the Conservatives in post-war Britain. Cameron needs a bigger swing than Margaret Thatcher achieved in 1979.
  • The electoral geography is stacked against the Conservatives. There are a variety of explanations but the size of Labour seats is, on average, a lot smaller than the average Conservative seat. Labour won a majority in the House of Commons of over 60 in 2005 with a 3% lead. The Tories probably need a lead of 5% to 8% to get even a majority of one seat.
  • Labour has created a huge public sector vote. With the state spending more than half of the UK's national income there is a large bloc of voters who get all or part of their income from government and they are more inclined to back Labour (the most pro-state party) as a result.
Follow the UK election's opinion polls via this link and for general news this page.

Tim Montgomerie

> Related link: Is Cameron more of a Thatcher or a Heath?

Posted at 01:04 AM in David Cameron, UK Tories | | Comments (62)

March 26, 2010

Conservative America struggles to find room for the dissenting Mr Frum

RoCJgs David Frum, former speechwriter to George W Bush and campaign adviser to Rudi Guiliani's 2008 presidential bid, has been a critic of parts of the conservative movement for some time. His recent book Comeback Conservatism called for big changes to the Republican message and warned that the 'old' messages on tax, crime and welfare were losing their Reagan-era potency. He launched a strong attack on Rush Limbaugh last March and on Sunday lambasted the Republican Party's handling of the healthcare debate. He has also attacked conservative pundits*, notably Fox News:

“Republicans originally thought that Fox worked for us and now we’re discovering we work for Fox... The thing that sustains a strong Fox network is the thing that undermines a strong Republican party.”

Two great pillars of conservative America decided this week that Frum had overstepped the line too many times.

The Wall Street Journal (like Fox News, owned by Rupert Murdoch) called him "the media's go-to basher of fellow Republicans"; a role filled by Michael Portillo within the UK in the years BC (Before Cameron). One commentator said Frum “yearns for the goodwill of the liberal elite in the media and in the Beltway.”  The Left are certainly cheering Mr Frum at the moment. The White House Press Secretary tweeted Mr Frum's Sunday attack on the Republicans and The Guardian's Michael Tomasky's warmth towards Mr Frum is typical of many left-wing commentators.

Yesterday Mr Frum's position at the American Enterprise Institute was "terminated". The suggestion is that the AEI's trustees were no longer willing to tolerate his outspoken attacks on conservatives in general and the GOP, in particular. There is also a suggestion, however, that some trustees were unhappy at the time he was devoted to his must-read blog, FrumForum, at the expense of supporting the AEI's mission. AEI President Arthur Brooks was nonetheless very positive about Mr Frum in a statement (quoted here): "David Frum is a truly original thinker and we are proud to have been associated with him for the last seven years. His decision to leave in no way diminishes our respect for him."

Mr Frum, a Canadian, told his country-of-birth's Globe and Mail that he was once an outcast from Canadian Conservatism: “Back in ‘95, I said that Progressive Conservatives and reformers were going to have to come together and to work together, and I didn't say that because I was a liberal. History proved me right.”

Mona Charen at National Review Online has come to David Frum's defence:

"I have known David for at least 15 years. He has staked out views in the past that put him to the right even of the conservative consensus. In his first book, he took issue with Jack Kemp’s idea for enterprise zones. Was he currying favor with liberals then? Don’t think so. He went on to work for George W. Bush. In any case, he was criticizing Kemp from the right. David is unpredictable because he has an original mind and constantly questions his own assumptions. He has a very rare intellectual integrity that is refreshing and bracing. Sometimes he changes his mind. To paraphrase David Mamet quoting John Maynard Keynes, “When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do sir?”"

Tim Montgomerie

* ConservativeInternational has also worried about the influence of America's conservative punditry.

Posted at 03:10 PM | | Comments (12)

Berlusconi faces regional election test as allegations of corruption mount against him

Last weekend Silvio Berlusconi addressed a rally in Rome of 150,000 supporters with the soundtrack to Star Wars as his musical backing. “Love always wins over envy and hatred” was the slogan of an event designed to get his party's candidates reinstated for important regional elections in Lazio. The candidates were disqualified after party officials had failed to register the candidates in time. Despite legal appeals and a special Cabinet decree Lazio's electoral officials aren't budging. Intriguingly for close watchers of divisions within Italy's Right, Gianfranco Fini, the co-founder of the Berlusconi-led People of Freedom Party, did not take part in the rally. Fini has previously accused Berlusconi of "Caesarism" and will challenge the Italian Prime Minister if his popularity slides further.

Mr Berlusconi's slide in approval ratings - from 62% when re-elected to a still reasonable 44% now - coincide with more evidence of his ambitions to suppress scrutiny of him. Wiretapped conversations of Italy's Prime Minister have emerged. In them Berlusconi demands that an independent regulator stops programmes scheduled to investigate his alleged corruption.

For Bill Emmott, former Editor of The Economist, the good news for Berlusconi is that he's not the only corrupt one. He argues that corruption is endemic throughout Italian life and politics:

"When the country had its previous great political corruption scandal, in the early 1990s, it seemed as if one dirty system might be ending and that a new, cleaner one could gradually emerge. The series of scandals that began in early February with allegations of corruption over public contracts for earthquake relief in the province of Abruzzo last year have shown that, if anything, the system is now even dirtier. Barely a day goes by without another disturbing allegation of fraud, corruption or simple abuse of power, generally in politics and government but also in business.

The good news for Mr Berlusconi is that the dirt is everywhere: opposition politicians have also been caught with their fingers in tills and, yes, with their pants down. The bad news for him, though, is that the scandals have also badly dented his main boast, namely that he and his people have a monopoly on competence. The broader moral, however, is that, while Mr Berlusconi has not created all this malfeasance single-handedly, he bears a heavy responsibility for its persistence and spread, and for the culture of impunity it reflects."

Posted at 08:34 AM in Silvio Berlusconi | | Comments (3)

March 23, 2010

Weakened Merkel puts Germany before Greece

Screen shot 2010-03-22 at 22.09.42 ConservativeInternational last looked at Angela Merkel's fortunes at the end of January. Problems with her new FDP coalition partners were already emerging then. Her government's fortunes have got worse since.

Guido Westerwelle, the leader of the FDP and her junior coalition partner, has seen his party's popularity halve since becoming German Foreign Minister.  62% of voters tell pollsters that the conservatives of the CDU and the liberals of the FDP "simply don't fit together". This, in part, reflects disagreements over fiscal policy. the FDP want large tax cuts while Merkel prioritises a smaller deficit. Westerwelle's more Thatcherite also offends the CDU's social market beliefs.  The Economist reported a poll for the German Banking Federation which found 61% of voters wanting more social protection and just 23% favouring a more market-based approach.

As the Merkel-Westerwelle relationship sours The Independent's Mary Dejevsky noted that active consideration is being given to a CDU-Green coalition. The Economist speculates about the same:

"The CDU’s origins are in the Catholic Centre Party of pre-war Germany, the Greens’ in the protest movements of the 1960s. But the CDU has embraced environmentalism, and today’s Greens are mostly prosperous burghers with a liberal bent. Entrepreneurs in Baden-Württemberg, another candidate for such a coalition, vote CDU but their wives are often Green, says Winfried Kretschmann, the party’s parliamentary leader in the state. Such a partnership would be harder to forge at federal level, but Mrs Merkel might like to have a go. Whatever the colour of the coalition, she intends to head it."

The big immediate issue in German politics is the possibility of a Greek bailout. The German people were never enthusiastic about giving up the Bundesbank and Deutsche Mark and they're even less keen on bailing out Greece now, against their better judgment, that they're in the Euro.  The latest FT/Harris poll showed 61% of German voters oppose the idea of their government helping Greece.  Just 20% are supportive*.   

Continue reading "Weakened Merkel puts Germany before Greece" »

Posted at 07:00 AM in Angela Merkel, Economic policy, German CDU, German FDP, Guido Westerwelle | | Comments (8)

March 22, 2010

The Republicans may make short-term gains on the back of 'ObamaCare' but America has taken significant leftwards turn

His average approval rating had sunk below his disapproval rating for the first time in his presidency but yesterday's passage of his historic, much-amended and pork-filled healthcare bill gives President Obama his most significant accomplishment since entering office - an accomplishment that eluded many of his Democrat predecessors, notably Bill Clinton.

Republicans console themselves with the likelihood of significant gains in November's mid-term elections. Early polls suggest seven Senate pick ups. David Frum counsels them against expecting big gains. The economy will be improving by then, he warns, and some of the "goodies" in the healthcare bill will be reaching key constituencies by then. But even if Republicans make gains, Frum is still despondent:

"Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now... This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?"

At The Weekly Standard Bill Kristol disagrees, arguing that mitigation of the legislation is still possible.

For Andrew Sullivan the political victory for Obama is that he has shown that he is more than a great speechmaker and sloganiser. He is, says Sullivan, a president of persistence:

"Imagine the narrative shift if this bill is passed. Obama will not have imposed this monstrosity on the country from on high; he will have ground it through the bloggers, and the pundits will declare a resurrection. The narrative will be about his persistence and his grit, rather than his near-divinity and his authority. And suddenly it will appear — lo! — as if this lone figure has not just rescued the US economy from the abyss, but also passed the biggest piece of social legislation in decades. There is only one story better than Icarus falling to earth; and it’s Icarus getting back up and putting on some shades. The media will fall for it. The public will merely notice that the guy can come back and fight. Even when they don’t always agree with such a figure on the issues, they can admire him."

For doom and gloom Mark Steyn at the National Review is unbeatable. He sees Obama's victory as a big step towards the Europeanisation of America:

"If Barack Obama does nothing else in his term in office, this will make him one of the most consequential presidents in history. It's a huge transformative event in Americans' view of themselves and of the role of government. You can say, oh, well, the polls show most people opposed to it, but, if that mattered, the Dems wouldn't be doing what they're doing. Their bet is that it can't be undone, and that over time, as I've been saying for years now, governmentalized health care not only changes the relationship of the citizen to the state but the very character of the people. As I wrote in NR recently, there's plenty of evidence to support that from Britain, Canada, and elsewhere. More prosaically, it's also unaffordable. That's why one of the first things that middle-rank powers abandon once they go down this road is a global military capability. If you take the view that the U.S. is an imperialist aggressor, congratulations: You can cease worrying. But, if you think that America has been the ultimate guarantor of the post-war global order, it's less cheery. Five years from now, just as in Canada and Europe two generations ago, we'll be getting used to announcements of defense cuts to prop up the unsustainable costs of big government at home."

> WATCH: President Obama welcomes the passing of his healthcare bill

Posted at 07:33 AM in US Republicans | | Comments (57)

March 17, 2010

Tony Abbott's pursuit of the Oscar Wilde doctrine

ConservativeInternational has tended to focus on the scepticism about man-made climate change of Australia's new Liberal leader, Tony Abbott. But, for Josh Gordon in the Sydney Morning Herald, the most notable feature of Mr Abbott is his pursuit of the Oscar Wilde doctrine; ''the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about''. Given Mr Abbott's remarks earlier last week - admitting that he feels threatened by homosexuality - he might not be happy with the comparison to the great writer.

More notably, Mr Abbott has been attracting attention in recent days for his willingness to tax big business in return for funding support for families, particularly full-time mothers. Malcolm Farr at Australia's Daily Telegraph is confused:

"He has proposed a special tax on big business to fund a plan for six months’ paid parental leave*, something the old style Labor lefties, and the modern Green lefties, would cheer for. But momemts later, Abbott declares himself a traditional conservative who also wants extra help for stay-at-home mums and single-income families. Mao morphing into Margaret in the space of a single address to Coalition MPs on Tuesday."

The policy came about, in large part, because Abbott has been trailing among women in opinion polls.

The Australian Spectator is not just concerned at the alleged ideological inconsistency but also his lone-ranger approach to policy-making:

"For one thing, Mr Abbott went out on his own with the policy, leaving his shadow cabinet colleagues to hear about it practically with their morning papers. For another, after mortally wounding Mr Rudd’s emissions trading scheme by pegging it as a ‘great big tax on everything’, it is downright bizarre to see him proposing essentially the same thing — albeit in the service of a different end. And given that Mr Abbott famously declared as John Howard’s employment minister in 2002 that his government would implement compulsory maternity leave ‘over [his] dead body’, this is an incredible volte face."

The latest betting suggests that the first-term Labor government of Kevin Rudd is still hot favourite to be re-elected but former PM John Howard thinks Abbott has given the Liberals a chance. "Tony has a great potential to appeal to middle Australia, because he is more authentic than Rudd," he said. Continuing: "History tells you that the government will probably get a second term. But history is there to be remade and recast and turned on its head." The main purpose of his interview with The Australian was to attack Rudd's record of reform, however. "There are no economic reforms the Rudd government has undertaken," he said.

The graph below shows that Abbott has certainly narrowed the gap on "preferred PM" since taking over his party's leadership last November but Rudd still enjoys a reasonable advantage:

Nielsenppmmarch.PNG

* Mothers will be paid "up to Aus$75,000 for six months' maternity leave through a 1.7 per cent tax on companies with taxable incomes above $5 million" according to the Sydney Morning Herald's assessment of Abbott's paternity leave policy.

Posted at 08:11 AM in Australian Liberals, John Howard, Tony Abbott | | Comments (4)

March 16, 2010

Battered by voters, Sarkozy is set to become another French leader to retreat from reform

Sarkozy Gold His Presidency began with such energy but battered in the first round of Sunday's regional elections there are now fears that reforms - already left too late in the presidential electoral cycle - will grind to a halt. The Wall Street Journal's Matthew Curtin examines the dangers:

"Even before the financial crisis, reform was piecemeal; the government tinkered with the tax system and gave universities greater autonomy, neither of which could stem rising public-sector debt. Since the financial crisis struck in 2007, reform has slowed further, with the government unwilling to risk recovery by cutting public spending. The main reform currently in the works is a plan to increase the minimum retirement age from 60 by a yet-to-be determined number of years. Mr. Sarkozy also floated the idea of a social value-added tax designed to shift the burden of financing welfare payments from companies to consumers and imports. The risk is that even these may now be sacrificed as part of Mr. Sarkozy's backpedalling on reform."

Strong showings by Jean-Marie Le Pen's National Front in the regional elections - 11.7% overall and nearly 20% in two regions - call into question Sarkozy's high profile debate on national identity. It was meant to squash the NF but it only served to raise the salience of their issues.

Sarkozy faces re-election in 2012. Rumours about his marriage to Carla Bruni now dog him at every turn. More significantly the socialists have a new spring in their step. They will hope to consolidate their gains next Sunday, in the second round of voting. Projections suggest socialist-green ccoalitions will win 20 of 22 contests. But it's always easier to be an opposition than a government-in-waiting. As The Economist noted, the socialists' "pitch to the electorate has not been clear". It concluded: "Voters may have been expressing their disillusion with Mr Sarkozy as much as any faith that the Socialists could do better."

Posted at 07:00 AM in Nicolas Sarkozy, UMP | | Comments (15)

March 15, 2010

The Wildrose Alliance provides right-wing challenge to Canada's Conservative Party

Canada is a largely liberal nation that is currently ruled by Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government (currently 33% to 29% ahead in national polls). Harper has tacked to the centre in order to stay in power according to many libertarians and small 'c' conservatives. Occasionally the conservatives rebel - as they did one week ago in scuppering plans to gender neutralise Canada's national anthem.

The wealthy province of Alberta, however, is very conservative and the Conservative Party has ruled there since 1971. Over that time it has drifted from its ideological roots. The National Post newspaper has attacked the Albertan Conservative leader Ed Stelmach as a big spender.

The Albertan Conservative leadership now faces a new rival from the right, The Wildrose Alliance.

Screen shot 2010-03-14 at 20.10.08Although Alberta is up to three years away from provincial elections the Alliance is leading polls. It is ahead by 42% to 27% in the latest Angus-Reid survey. Wildrose's popularity forced Stelmach to abandon higher royalty taxes on the province's hugely important oil and gas industries. This U-turn may only embolden Wildrose.

The Wildrose's policies include:

  • Have the lowest Provincial personal and corporate tax rates to encourage investment and growth;
  • Implement innovative new ideas that deliver health care more efficiently such as funding following the patient;
  • Implementing “School Choice” legislation;
    Introduce standardized annual testing of students, teacher quality, and monitor graduation rates;
  • Support Truth in Sentencing provisions for incarcerating of criminals;
  • Recognize that families are a cornerstone of society and must be maintained;
    Provide support and care to those unable to help themselves.

The Alliance also focuses on democratic reform:

  • Constantly work to reduce waste, duplication, and red tape.
  • Put the power back in the hands of Albertans through meaningful electoral reform including MLA recall, fixed election dates and citizen initiated referenda.
  • Limit the size of Cabinet to 16 members.
  • Eliminate pork-barrel politics through stable, predictable and non-partisan municipal funding.

Posted at 07:00 AM in Canadian Conservatives, Stephen Harper, Wildrose Alliance | | Comments (14)

March 07, 2010

Will another Texas Governor be the next Republican President?

Screen shot 2010-03-07 at 16.12.06 Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard takes a look at the leading contenders for the Republican nomination for 2012.

Barnes focuses on Rick Perry, who has just successfully secured the Republican nomination for the Governorship of Texas:

"To qualify as a serious national candidate, Perry must defeat Democrat Bill White—and not in a squeaker—this fall for a third term as governor of the nation’s second most populous state... A Perry-for-President bandwagon is all but inevitable, assuming he trounces White. The case for him is pretty simple: Perry is perhaps the most successful governor in the country. Texas has been a job creation machine on his watch. Even in the current recession, Texas has suffered far less than most states. And, by the way, Perry has a tough, tested crew of political advisers who will come in handy if he runs."

Barnes concludes:

"He’s running for reelection on an anti-Washington theme, and he’s also anti-establishment, having beaten the darling of the Texas Republican grandees. For a Republican, that’s just about perfect positioning."

There's a long way to go but Obama's weak approval numbers, as recorded by RealClearPolitics, are giving Republicans hope that the white House can be won back:

Screen shot 2010-03-07 at 16.13.58

5.30pm: Michael Barone does not see Rick Perry as a presidential candidate but salutes the growth of Texas: "From 2000 to 2009, the Census Bureau estimates, there has been a domestic outflow of 1,509,000 people from California -- almost as many as the number of immigrants coming in. Population growth has not been above the national average and, for the first time in history, it appears that California will gain no House seats or electoral votes from the reapportionment following the 2010 census. Texas is a different story. Texas has low taxes -- and no state income taxes -- and a much smaller government. Its legislature meets for only 90 days every two years, compared with California's year-round legislature. Its fiscal condition is sound. Public employee unions are weak or nonexistent. But Texas seems to be delivering superior services. Its teachers are paid less than California's. But its test scores -- and with a demographically similar school population -- are higher. California's once fabled freeways and crumbling and crowded. Texas has built gleaming new highways in metro Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. In the meantime, Texas' economy has been booming. Unemployment rates have been below the national average for more than a decade, as companies small and large generate new jobs. And Americans have been voting for Texas with their feet. From 2000 to 2009, some 848,000 people moved from other parts of the United States to Texas, about the same number as moved in from abroad."

Posted at 04:16 PM in Rick Perry, US Republicans | | Comments (15)

February 13, 2010

Right-wing turn boosts Australian Liberals

Writing from Australia, Matthew Parris notes how the Australian Liberals have so far defied the pundits and improved their electoral prospects since they dumped Malcolm Turnbull as their leader and also his enthusiasm for combating climate change:

"Here in Australia, where I’m spending a few days, something very odd has just happened to its right-of-centre opposition coalition. This week’s Spectator Australia is mischievously quoting opinions from mainstream commentators offered a while ago when a group within the Opposition (the Liberal-National Coalition) began complaining that their leader (then Malcolm Turnbull) and his friends had taken the modernisation of their party a step too far, and swallowed too readily the fashionable, government-led consensus on the need for action against global warming.

The national media were as appalled and smug as you can simultaneously be. The (Australian) Daily Telegraph summed it up: “Unless [Malcolm] Turnbull can bring the climate-change dissidents to heel, the Liberals will face humiliation at the polls.” Another national broadcaster called it “signing their own death-warrant”... Columnists announced that if the Opposition went on like this, it would face “electoral oblivion” (The Sydney Morning Herald) and “electoral wipeout” (The Australian).

You may know what happened. The rebel faction succeeded in ousting Mr Turnbull and replacing him with one of their own, Tony Abbott, under whom the Coalition has lurched to the Right across a range of issues, especially taxation...

Oblivion? Electoral wipeout? The Right, until quite recently in the dust behind the Labor Government, is now snapping at its tail."

Matthew Parris sees a warning in this for David Cameron: "David Cameron is lucky he was elected leader some years ago. In today’s climate he would never have topped the internal Tory poll... Mr Cameron knows he isn’t quite right for his party’s or the electorate’s present mood."  Aside from the issue of climate change Parris does not close that argument but let's return downunder...

The Australian's Editor-at-large Paul Kelly summarises how Kevin Rudd's green policies are causing difficulties on multiple fronts, including on a plan to improve home insulation:

"In 2009 green politics and energy efficiency dictated that Labor include home insulation as part of its $42 billion economic stimulus package. The ambitious plan was to insulate 2.7 million homes. [Environment Minister] Garrett had to make it work, but Labor's subsidy unleashed massive demand, quotes pitched to the $1600 rebate regardless of the size of the job, untrained installers, shoddy operators and a massive administrative task for his department to set quality standards and training for all installers."

Two installers have died while installing metal roof insulation.

Most Liberals are united behind the more sceptical environmental approach of new leader Tony Abbott but former leader Malcolm Turnbull continues to speak out in favour of the Labor Government's Emissions Trading Scheme (provoking grassroots disdain), saying that it is based in market mechanisms.

Although the Liberals are making progress - and are set to unseat Labor in Tasmania - it is unlikely that they can beat Kevin Rudd in the General Election, due within months. Every first term Australian government has been re-elected since WWII and current polls show that Labor will not be the first to fall at that hurdle. But the polls also show that Tony Abbott has made the contest more competitive and the meltdown Liberals feared only six months ago looks unlikely.

Posted at 10:27 AM in Australian Liberals, David Cameron, Environment, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott | | Comments (15)

February 12, 2010

Three reasons why the international Right has prospered during capitalism's "crisis"

“This financial crisis is for capitalist neoliberals what Chernobyl was for the nuclear lobby.”

- Daniel Cohn-Bendit in 2008

This week's Economist looks at some of the reasons why the Right has actually done rather well in electoral terms (eg at last year's European Elections) over the last two years:

  1. The popular backlash against capitalism has not been substantial: "Polls suggest that the popular backlash against the economic system has been less sharp than the left expected. Last November a survey of 29,000 people across 27 countries (almost all democracies) by GlobeScan and the BBC World Service found that only 23% agreed that capitalism is “fatally flawed” and needs replacing. Some 51% believed it had problems that could be addressed through regulation and reform, and a further 11% were happy with the system as it is. Similarly, there was more support for an increased government role in redistributing wealth and regulating businesses than for outright state control of big industries."
  2. Certain right-wing issues are more salient during recession: "Non-economic issues dear to conservatives—like crime, immigration [see here] and national security—matter at least as much in recessionary times. Certainly, Mr Cameron’s narrative of British social decline has resonated with voters. For Mr Sarkozy, a firm line on crime and the secular ideals of the French republic have been keys to success."
  3. The right has embraced more interventionism: "Pressure from within her own party that persuaded Mrs Merkel to set up a vote-winning “Germany Fund” to help businesses cope with recession. Gaullists love Mr Sarkozy’s support of a Tobin tax on currency speculation. Some Tories may grumble about Mr Cameron’s accommodation with Labour’s “big state”—but they do so quietly. He has had the latitude to make promises to protect health spending and clamp down on bankers, while avoiding promises to reverse recent tax rises." This has caused calls for Mrs Merkel to pursue a more "pure CDU" and Sarkozy has been attacked for his ideological confusion.

Read the full piece in The Economist.

Posted at 08:38 AM in Economic policy, Global trends, Immigration, Size and scope of government | | Comments (10)

February 08, 2010

Sarah Palin becomes queen of America's anti-government protestors

TaxedEnoughAlready The Tea Party protests took part across the USA last year in protest at Barack Obama's expansion of the federal government. Invoking the Boston Tea Party the modern day protestors claim they are Taxed Enough Already. Mainstream media organisations have attempted to paint the Tea Party movement as a movement of nutters - drawing attention to some of the (many) fringe characters who have attached themselves to events.

For Mark Halperin there are enormous similarities between Sarah Palin and the Tea Party movement:

  • Both scare the heck out of a Republican Establishment that is afraid to be critical of either of them in public (but savages them in private.)
  • Both "stand for" hazy opposition to big government, with no specifics on how they would do things differently (or effectively.)
  • Both have far less support in the country at large than a gullible Old Media seems to understand or suggest.
  • Both are the subject of endless fascination by cable TV.
  • Both have the potential to ensure Barack Obama's re-election.
  • Both have energetic supporters whose passion dwarfs anything else in American politics today.

More similarities here.

There is a continuum, however, from those nutty fringes (where Obama is compared to Hitler)... to the mainstream of the Tea Party movement (TPM) and its very high energy levels (it organised the conservative movement's largest ever demonstration in Washington DC in September 2009)... and then to the less energised but still angry middle America that, in Massachusetts, voted for Scott Brown in protest at Barack Obama's activist expansion of government and public borrowing.

Much of the Republican establishment nonetheless fears the TPM. The movement has, for example, backed Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio against fellow Republican and incumbent state governor, Charlie Crist (R) in the Republican Senate primary. The TPM wants top create a purer, more anti-government Republican Party but the party establishment fears that a too ideological party will upset moderates. The movement then intends to pour its resources into the campaigns of approved Republicans. The 'Enduring Liberty Corporation', an offshoot of the movement, aims to raise $10m in support of 'friends of the TPM'.

Sarah Palin is encouraging the Republican Party to embrace the movement. She gave the keynote address to the National Tea Party Convention on Saturday night, in Nashville. She spoke to 1,100 people who had each paid $350 for their seat. She said that America was “ready for another revolution,”. She got the warmest response from her audience when she attacked Obama. “How’s that hopey-changey stuff working out for you?,” was one of her best-received lines. Her speech never became personally negative, however. Her strongest line being to describe the President as that “charismatic guy with a teleprompter.” For FrumForum her "speech was a color-by-numbers affair that read like it was a paragraph-by-paragraph summary of a stack of Wall Street Journal editorials." In summary: "Drill for more oil. Don’t criminalize the war on terror. Lobbyists in Obama’s White House. Nationalize the healthcare insurance market. Stand by Israel. Don’t apologize for America." But as The Weekly Standard notes, she didn't just crowd please: "Palin started off with a concentrated attack on the Obama administration's national security policies--not an issue for which the Tea Partiers are known."

It's easy to write the TPM off but there are signs of maturity. Within the 600 people gathered in Nashville to sit through seminars on fundraising, blogging and other political techniques there are almost certainly individuals who will either help the Tea Party movement to succeed or who, in the years to come, will nurture other conservative movements.

Posted at 06:26 AM in Sarah Palin, US Republicans | | Comments (35)

February 01, 2010

How a successful grassroots rebellion against the party leadership prompted the founding of Australia's equivalent of ConservativeHome

Picture 9 Chris Browne and Tim Andrews are the co-founders of the new Australian blog Menzies House, which went live on Saturday.

The success of grassroots political blogs like ConserativeHome has significantly changed the dynamics of political campaigns and policy development around the world. By providing a strong platform for political activists to engage in the political process, they have succeeded in not only shaping political debate, but also by driving an agenda of change in influencing policy makers.

Amid a plethora of left wing websites (a number of which are taxpayer funded), Australia has not had an internet ‘home’ for the political centre-right, largely because there was a belief that 'our people have jobs and don't have time to be an online activist'. It was perceived there was no ‘demand’ for online activism.

Last year the presumption that the centre-right are not prepared to be activists was proved resoundingly false. When the then-leader of the (conservative) Liberal Party of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, became determined to support a job-destroying green tax known as the “Emissions Trading Scheme”, a grassroots party rebellion occurred. In the course of just a week, tens of thousands of grassroots party members and supporters mobilised to oppose their ‘leader’ – something previously unheard of in Australian politics. With the support of a few principled politicians, an unprecedented campaign of local activism began, leading to the eventual removal of Malcolm Turnbull as leader and his replacement with the anti-ETS Tony Abbott.

It became clear that there was a large group of centre-right people who were interested enough in politics and policy to make a difference. They just needed an organised outlet.

A small group of activists approached Senator Cory Bernardi, one of the leaders in the grassroots anti-ETS mobilisation and one of the few blogging politicians in Australia, with an idea to develop just such a site – a forum for mainstream centre-right thinkers and activists. Senator Bernardi supplied some initial funding and menzieshouse.com.au was born.

Run entirely by grassroots volunteers, under the the control of an independent Editorial Board, MenziesHouse.com.au has the opportunity to make a real difference in Australian politics.

Its name reflects the intention of Liberal Party founder Sir Robert Menzies' ideals of having a united 'broad church' to oppose Labor and the tyranny of collectivism in all its forms. Indeed, Menzies House shall not be simply a mouthpiece for one particular ideological viewpoint of what the ‘right’ is. Rather, contributors include conservatives, libertarians, classical liberals, and political moderates, all united in their general belief in small government, individual freedoms, and the free market. It seeks to provide news and analysis, commentary and debate. Most importantly, it seeks to provide a unified place for the broad right coalition to gather online.

By engaging directly with the millions of Australians who identify as centre-right, but until now had no outlet to engage in the political process, we believe that Menzies House will make a big difference.

Posted at 07:00 AM in Australian Liberals, New media | | Comments (8)

January 31, 2010

Disagreements on tax, Afghanistan and with her conservative base upset Merkel's second term

MerkelTime A cover feature in Time magazine called her the most powerful leader in Europe but Angela Merkel has had a bumpy ride since ending her grand coalition with the leftist SDP and forming a coalition with the libertarian FDP.

Five observations:

EI-AZ218A_GERPO_NS_20100110213259 Opinion polls show that the German public are unhappy with her start to her second term: "The German public television channel ARD last week published its monthly poll showing falling public support for Mrs. Merkel. The ARD poll found that support for Mrs. Merkel had dropped 11 percent from the previous month, with 59 percent saying that they were satisfied with her performance. This was her lowest rating since December 2006 and the biggest one-month drop for a German chancellor in seven years. And it was a considerable plunge for Mrs. Merkel since public support had been remarkably high and consistent over the past three years. The ARD polls also found that 77 percent of those asked were not satisfied with Mrs. Merkel’s second term, mainly because of the divisions and squabbles." (New York Times and Wall Street Journal).

Her new coalition is split between deficit hawks within her own party (led by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble) and supply-siders within the FDP: "The main sticking-point is a dispute over tax cuts between Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and her junior coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). The FDP wants to reduce taxes by almost €20 billion ($29 billion) next year and believes that it was promised this much when it agreed to join the ruling coalition. But fiscal conservatives within the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, fret more about bringing back into balance a budget deficit that may reach as much as 6% of GDP this year." (Economist and FT).

Continue reading "Disagreements on tax, Afghanistan and with her conservative base upset Merkel's second term" »

Posted at 07:00 AM in Angela Merkel, German CDU, German FDP, Guido Westerwelle | | Comments (7)

Next »

Categories

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

Video collections

International centre-right organisations

UK centre-right organisations

  • Tracker 2
  • Extreme Tracker

Quantcast