thetorydiary

In a New Year Editorial tomorrow Tim Montgomerie looks hopefully at what Conservatives might achieve in the next ten years. Today he examines the big strategic choice that David Cameron faces before the election: Will Cameron choose to win a mandate as well as a majority?

I remain very optimistic about Tory prospects at the next General Election. I think Labour is exhausted, disunited and badly-led. It has wrecked the country's finances. It has presided over a catastrophic loss of confidence in parliamentary standards. Social mobility has collapsed. Anti-social behaviour has exploded. Brown and Blair led our brave military to defeat in southern Iraq.

The Conservatives' opinion poll advantage has been remarkably stable since Brown bottled his autumn 2007 opportunity for a honeymoon election. The Tories have cornered all three ends of Robert Worcester's iron triangle of political success; (1) our leader is preferred to theirs; (2) we are more trusted with the economy; and (3) we are seen as united. We also have the superior elections machine - outgunning Labour and the Liberals in local government, parliamentary by-elections, web-based activity and in fundraising.

Team Cameron's decision to agree to three election debates has given Nick Clegg a golden opportunity to shore up Liberal Democrat support but, on balance, I see no reason to revisit my underlying optimism as long as the whole party works ceaselessly until every last possible vote is won.

The prevailing wisdom at CCHQ is that we focus on beating Labour and worry about what happens next if and when the Conservatives are elected. I think that's a mistake that will make governing infinitely harder and actually underestimates the electorate's openness to some truth-telling from politicians.

The great fact is that government is going to be hellish after the election (whoever wins). The new government will have to make the deepest cuts that any British political party has ever made.

There'll be no time to relax into the job. There'll need to be an emergency budget to reassure desperately anxious international investors.

Every cut will be opposed by the unions and their £25m war chest. This will be the first time cutbacks have been made in the internet age. Every local and national interest group will mobilise online to fight cuts.

Labour's march through the quangocracy will ensure that much of Britain's government will remain under the Left's control even with Tories in charge of Whitehall departments. Left-leaning heads of quangos and charities will lead the opposition to cuts (and they'll be presented as independent minds on the Today programme).

To cut the size of the state without a clear electoral mandate in these circumstances will be a very risky enterprise even if The Mail, Telegraph and Tory base rallies to the cause.

There is an additional constitutional reason for securing a mandate. If elected, David Cameron's government will be the first Conservative government not to have a majority in the Lords.  The Lords will be much more likely to block measures that weren't signalled in the manifesto.

Have the Tories got that mandate yet? I don't think so. There has been talk of austerity and tough choices and a small list of savings has been announced. But have voters been given a clear idea of what's ahead? Tory spokesmen are often heard attacking Labour for the modest cutbacks that have been made. George Osborne has denied that he is even looking at increasing VAT.

The extent to which David Cameron seeks a mandate as well as a majority at the next General Election remains the big strategic choice that keeps Conservative advisers awake at night. We do not need detailed spending numbers but we do need a 'TV moment' where Cameron is unambiguous about the pain ahead. Cameron and Osborne need to be able to say - credibly - that they warned the country that they would do these difficult things and they are now doing them. The message should be framed as necessary to put Britain back on track; 'We are going through a tunnel but there is a great future for Britain at the end of that tunnel'. We need a clip from David Cameron that will be replayed on TV in the years to come as the truth-telling moment when David Cameron made it clear what was coming. Our austerity message needs to be infused with special measures to help the very poorest. But without honesty before the election, the hatred in government may be unbearable.

Tim Montgomerie

The Tory Treasury team has tonight gone on to the front foot with an attack on Labour's inheritance tax policy. More significantly, in terms of General Election strategy, George Osborne is signalling a determination to stick with the Conservatives' own IHT pledge and to position the party as the champion of aspiration and family.

Conservative research suggests that more than four million people are liable for Inheritance Tax, "even after taking into account the transferability of Inheritance Tax allowances between married couples by allocating the full £325,000 allowance to each adult."

Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Philip Hammond, commented:

“These figures show that Inheritance Tax remains a threat for millions of families under Labour. Coming on top of the Government’s planned tax increase on anyone earning over £20,000 this reveals that the real victims of Labour’s class war are middle-income families. If you aspire to save for your future and pass something on to your children then Labour is no longer the party for you. The Conservatives will restore Inheritance Tax to what it was designed to be – a tax on the very rich – and ensure that it is only paid by millionaires.”

The Tory pledge to abolish inheritance tax for all but millionaires has been a big target of Labour attack dogs. They have used the pledge to try and paint the Conservatives as 'friends of the rich'.  There have also been suggestions that the pledge is unaffordable given the budget deficit.

A recent poll by ComRes suggested that the Tory policy still enjoyed support from voters.  By 55% to 38% respondents told ComRes that they supported the policy of raising the inheritance tax threshold to £1m.

Decisive in the hardening of the Tory position has been a concern to avoid a reputation for flip-floppery. The Tory vote softened immediately after David Cameron was (unfairly) perceived to have broken his pledge on the Lisbon referendum.  George Osborne as General Election co-ordinator and Shadow Chancellor is determined to avoid giving The Daily Mail any more cause for concern. The Shadow Chancellor is not for turning!

Tim Montgomerie