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My new rule is not to over-interpret any one poll but to look more closely at the ConHome Poll of Polls (crude as it is, Graeme Archer). The Tories do seem to have strengthened their position in the last ten days and Labour are below 30% again.
Tim Montgomerie
10.30pm
For David Cameron "there is such a thing as society, it's just not the same thing as the state" and today he and eleven other shadow cabinet ministers are setting out what the society agenda means at a one day conference. The Tory leader's own speech to the conference can be read here.
The following new policies have been announced at the Conference (CCHQ's words, not mine):
Tim Montgomerie
Graphic from Jay Priest.
CCHQ recently denied a Guardian report that they had set up a small team to draw up plans if there was a hung parliament.
My own view is that David Cameron will win a working majority. The conventional polling projecting models suggest that the Tory lead in opinion polls (currently averaging 7.8%) will mean that the Conservatives may fall short on the magic 326 MPs. Because of factors I've discussed before I think that sort of lead will probably be enough to produce a reasonable Conservative majority.
We need contingency plans though if things do not go as well as we hope. Newspapers are full this morning (eg here and here) of reports that the Commons might not reconvene until 18 days after polling day if the election result is indecisive. Brown will likely stay as PM during that period even if Labour is the second party. Alistair Darling would be permitted to remain Chancellor even if he loses his Edinburgh seat.
The Conservatives need to draw up a plan to deal with this. They need plans to understand all the constitutional implications of a hung parliament. They need a media strategy. They need a basis for talking to the Liberal Democrats, nationalists and Northern Ireland parties. It doesn't need many people diverted to the task but it needs to be done.
Tim Montgomerie
Also in The Sun/ YouGov poll we learn:
Whom do you rate as the better Prime Minister, Tony Blair or Gordon Brown?
There is constructive criticism and there is destructive criticism. There is a time for debate on the Right and a time to either be silent or gun for Labour. At the moment there's too much ill-discipline on our side of the fence.
This close to a General Election is a time for people on the right to weigh their words carefully. Do they really want to help re-elect a government that has taken state spending to more than 50% of GDP? The Cameron-led Conservative Party isn't perfect but this election isn't a choice between a perfect and an imperfect Toryism but between Brown's big state interventionism and David Cameron's alternative.
Someone who should know better is former Tory Chairman Norman Tebbit but, yesterday, he was warning Cameron that time was running out for him to offer something distinctive - failing to even mention Cameron's bold National Insurance policy, made 24 hours earlier.
Also at The Telegraph, Douglas Murray is arguing 'Why the Conservatives deserve to lose'.
Also at The Telegraph, Gerald Warner declares 'Most Tories hate David Cameron and cannot wait to see him crash and burn'.
Also at The Telegraph, Michael Deacon compares Cameron and Osborne to "spoilt" children.
Also at The Telegraph (are you noticing a pattern?), Simon Heffer is calling for George Osborne to be replaced by Ken Clarke. Crazy stuff at this stage in the electoral cycle.
In the Daily Mail Amanda Platell devotes her whole column to attacking 'dress down Dave'.
Peter Hitchens brings out a book to attack 'the Cameron delusion'.
I think it's legitimate to offer suggestions to fine tune strategy but Labour must be cheering Hitchens and Heffer on.
It's worth noting that if there's ill-discipline amongst the commentariat there's enormous discipline within the parliamentary party. There are almost no noises off. Good for our MPs and peers.
Tim Montgomerie
Following yesterday's NICs announcement CCHQ have supplied me with a full list of Tory tax pledges.
National Insurance Contributions. Seven out of ten working families will be £150 a year better off under a Conservative government.
Inheritance tax. Conservatives will raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million, taking the family home for the vast majority of people out of Inheritance Tax altogether. This will be funded by charging a flat-rate levy on all UK residents of foreign origin who are tax-domiciled offshore.
Levy on banks. Since November the Conservatives have been calling for international agreement on a bank levy, similar to the plan later announced by President Obama or the tax introduced in Sweden. There is already international support for such a levy. In America, President Obama has announced plans for a ‘responsibility fee’, designed to recover over $100 billion of public money paid out under the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP). And in Sweden, banks and other credit institutions have been paying a ‘stability fee’ since 2009. Conservatives have now announced that a Conservative Government will definitely introduce a levy on banks to compensate taxpayers for their support, and to help protect them in the future. Marriage in the tax system. Conservatives will recognise marriage in the tax system and will specify how before polling day.
The couple penalty. Conservatives will end the couple penalty in the tax credits system that currently pays couples more if they split up. We will pay for it from savings made through our radical programme of welfare reform.
Carbon levy. Conservatives will replace the Government’s ineffectual Climate Change Levy – a tax on energy use, not emissions – with a new Carbon Levy which would distinguish properly between high and low carbon production of energy.
Corporation tax.
The headline rate of corporation tax will be reduced from 28p to 25p as
a first step to lower business taxes, funded by a reduction in complex
allowances.
Small business taxation. The small companies’ rate of corporation tax will be cut from 22p to 20p, paid for by removing complex new investment allowances.
Tax simplification. Conservatives will create an Office of Tax Simplification. It will become an independent and permanent voice on tax law, operating in a similar way to the National Audit Office, which will create a sustained and powerful institutional pressure for the simplification of the tax system.
Tim Montgomerie
I gave my verdict last night on the debate between the would be Chancellors. Here are some other verdicts...
Fraser Nelson, The Spectator: "Osborne didn't set the heather alight, but nor did he intend to. His mission was to walk through this minefield without blowing himself up. He had in mind not the journalists, nor even the studio audience, but the audience back home, to whom he pitched his closing remarks directly. “It’s your choice, you will decide” he said – breaking through the ‘fourth wall’ a la Moonlighting. Anecdotally, I hear that a lot of normal voters are saying they were pleasantly surprised that Osborne is not the demonic oik he’s been portrayed as."
Iain Martin, Wall Street Journal: "Osborne had by far the hardest job going into the Chancellor’s debate. He’s under pressure and the expectation was that Cable and Darling would gang up and do him in. They had a couple of early goes, but he stood his ground and got over his early nerves. It is not an exaggeration to say that this is a show that, if it had gone badly wrong for Osborne, could have done serious damage to the Tories election chances. It didn’t go wrong and he emerged stronger."
Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph: "[Osborne's] closing line about it being our choice whether we want to change the country – no bombast or cod appeal – was refreshing. Mr Osborne also scored one of the clear hits of the night by forcing what sounded suspiciously like a surrender from Alistair Darling on the “death tax” to pay for long term care."
Nick Watt, The Guardian: "Cable, who has been widely praised for predicting the recession, was seen as the winner after a bravura performance. In his closing remarks he said: "The Labour government led us into this mess … The Tories presided over two big recessions in office, they wasted most of the North Sea oil revenue, they sold off the family silver on the cheap." To applause, he added: "Now they want to have another turn to get their noses in the trough and reward their rich backers. The Liberal Democrats are different. We got this crisis basically right. We are not beholden to either the super rich or militant unions.""
Martin Kettle, The Guardian: "Osborne, by contrast, started from a low base especially amoing non-Tories. He is seen by focus groups and polls as a little callow, a bit posh and not terribly reliable. So he stood to gain from the debate. Viewers who stayed the course will perhaps have been impressed that he kept going well under pressure."
Sean O'Grady, The Independent: "As the underdog, George Osborne went in to the studio with the least to lose, and he lost it. It must have seemed a good idea at the time, the cut in national insurance paid for by cuts and efficiency savings in the public sector, but the Tory message has been badly muddied by this."
Allister Heath, City AM: "Predictably, the debate’s low point was the one-sided and undifferentiated attack on the financial services industry by all three candidates, including the false claim that Barclays was bailed out by the taxpayer and other factually incorrect statements. All three parties are continuing to propagate envy and hatred towards all those who work in finance with an ultra-simplistic analysis of the causes of the crisis; they also fail to differentiate between those who acted prudently – and those who didn’t, who do deserve to be vilified."
Tim Montgomerie
Highlights, not verbatim, focusing on George Osborne's contributions. On Channel 4, 8pm.
8.53pm: Osborne has the last word, he says Darling has been in charge for thirteen years and has changed one of the strongest economies in Europe to the weakest.
8.53pm: Cable gets applause when he says LibDems are not beholden to unions or the super rich.
8.51pm: Osborne says we borrow from the Chinese to buy goods from them.
8.48pm: Osborne is doing well at looking directly at questioners.
8.46pm: Osborne says we need to protect the vanilla retail banks, not the ones doing risky trading. Applause.
8.44pm: Second Osborne hit - attacking Labour's failed regulatory system.
8.40pm: Cable gets applause for attacking cartel banks. Darling makes more sense when he points out that 'small' banks like Northern Rock failed as well as mega-sized banks (size doesn't matter!). Osborne says it is wrong for banks supported by taxpayers to pay large bonuses; it should be going to small businesses.
8.36pm: Osborne agrees with Cable and Darling that inequality is a problem.
8.34pm: Vince Cable just described people unhappy with 50p tax as "pin-striped Scargills".
8.33pm: Osborne says avoiding the NI tax rise rather than the 50p tax rise is his priority. He promises to protect the many first, not the few.
8.32pm: Osborne says he has no plans to raise VAT. The bulk of deficit reduction will come from spending reduction.
8.28pm: Osborne says Tories will introduce a bank tax in order to make fair contribution to society.
8.27pm: Darling appears to rule out death tax. First 'new news' of evening.
8.24pm: Osborne's first hit of the night - says Labour won't rule out a £20,000 death tax.
8.17pm: Osborne says he'll protect the NHS budget. Cable says he won't give that commitment because it will mean bigger cuts in other budgets. Cable says Osborne will have to take the cleaver to police, housing, defence and so on because of ring-fencing the NHS.
8.15pm: All three say cuts will have to be deeper than anything undertaken by Margaret Thatcher.
8.12pm: Cable gets laugh for saying Labour's efficiency savings are completely bogus. Lots of interaction between the three. This won't be permitted in the leaders' debates (apparently there is a chunk of time reserved for 'free debate').
8.10pm: It's common sense says Osborne that we need to start repaying debt quickly. It's the same for a person as it is for government.
8.08pm: Cable actually looks nervous.
8.06pm: Good points from Osborne saying that he wants to reward workers and savers. A Chancellor must always remember that he is dealing with the people's money.
8.02pm: Opening statements were forgettable.
Tim Montgomerie
The latest Daily Express/Opinium Research poll has the Tories with a lead of 10%, up three points from last week. The parties' standings are:
The fieldwork for the poll was carried out between Friday and today.
At least two more polls are due this evening - ComRes for the Independent and YouGov for The Sun.
9.30pm updateAndrew Grice from The Independent has blogged that the Tory lead in tonight's ComRes poll is 7%. More details will follow at 10pm...
10pm update:
The full details of the ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent are:
Comparisons are with the ComRes
poll at the beginning of the month.
Other findings from the poll include:
10.30pm update:
Anthony Wells reports the YouGov daily tracker poll for The Sun as:
Ian Birrell, until recently Deputy Editor at The Independent, has joined David Cameron's office as a speechwriter.
Mr Birrell, a friend of David Cameron, was considered as a chief aide to the Tory leader some years ago and, although the appointment as a speechwriter is only for the duration of the campaign, I would expect him to join the Downing Street staff if the Conservatives win the General Election.
One of the factors that drew David Cameron and Ian Birrell close was the shared experience of a disabled child. Ian Birrell wrote about this here.
A very good appointment.
Tim Montgomerie
John Marek, who for eighteen years was the Labour MP for Wrexham, has today defected to the Conservative Party.
Dr Marek represented Wrexham in the Commons between 1983 and 2001, and then in the Welsh Assembly between 1999 and 2007 (for the latter four years as an Independent, having been deselected by Labour prior to the 2003 Assembly election and then retained his seat as an Independent).
He said today:
"David Cameron’s social conscience is at the heart of my decision to join the Conservative Party. He understands the difficulties faced by ordinary people and I am convinced that as Prime Minister he will govern for everybody.
“I believe it is only through a Conservative government that we can fix our broken economy, restore our civil liberties, ensure our public services meet the public’s expectations, and tackle the big national and international issues facing our country today.”
In December sitting Plaid Cymru Welsh Assembly Member Mohammad Asghar defected to the Conservatives.
Jonathan Isaby
Last night I blogged about the Tory NI cut (or, more accurately the avoidance of Labour's increase) through the raising of thresholds; Seven out of ten working families will be better off with the Conservatives. We learn today that the NHS and defence budgets will also benefit from a Tory assault on waste.
This morning at a press conference, George Osborne, Philip Hammond and Ken Clarke explained how it would all be funded.
The Conservatives plan to start (and expand) an anti-waste programme that the Government does not intend to implement until next year. They have been advised that this is possible by the Government's own former efficiency advisors - Sir Peter Gershon and Dr Martin Reid - both of whom have been advising the Conservatives. They advise that £12bn of savings are possible in 2010* if five areas of spending are tackled:
£6bn of these savings will be used to avoid most of the NI rise.
The other £6bn will be re-invested in the NHS, the overseas aid budget AND defence. Defence has been added to the Tories' list of ringfenced budgets for this year only - or at least until the strategic security and defence review is completed. That's a victory for Liam Fox.
In the longer-term other Tory spending measures - such as action on public sector pay - will make today's measures sustainable.
The Spectator's James Forsyth asked an important question at the end - what, he said, will the Tories do with the extra NHS cash? George Osborne said he didn't want to pre-empt any announcements from Andrew Lansley, Shadow Health Secretary. At the moment the Tory pledge to protect the NHS budget is too abstract. This extra investment gives the party an opportunity to spell out the benefits of this extra spending in terms that can be explained to voters on the doorstep.
> WATCH: George Osborne announces Conservative plans to block rises to National Insurance
> Read George's Osborne's speech in its entirety
Tim Montgomerie
* Policy Exchange's Chief Economist Andrew Lilico suggested similar savings were possible last month.
The Conservative Party's latest anti-Brown advertising campaign attracted much media attention yesterday. For example, Sky News featured this report throughout the day:
Shadow Treasury minister Greg Hands appears there to defend the campaign, but also included in the clip came a note of scepticism from Paul Richards, who appeared to be there as an independent political analyst - which he most certainly is not. A former Labour candidate and special adviser to several Cabinet ministers, I actually appeared head-to-head with him on Sky News yesterday lunchtime to discuss these very posters.
He has written about the ad campaign here for LabourList, claiming, among other things, that political posters are a thing of the past and that negative or personal attacks won't work anyway.
Let me deal firstly with the element of hypocrisy here. Look at Exhibits A (taken from the Labour Party website) and B, from Nick Watt's blog where he noted that "Labour has launched this poster lampooning George Osborne":
What are they if not both posters and negative and personal? Will Paul Richards disown his party for having produced them? Will he advise Labour that producing posters is "a waste of money" and that the above examples amount to "bullying tactics"? I suspect not.
Political campaigns are always going to contain a mix of positive and negative messages and this election will be no different for any of the parties contesting it.
Should the Conservatives attack the Labour Government's record where it has failed? Of course they should. Does the man who was Chancellor for a decade and Prime Minister for the last three years personify that Government? Without a doubt.
It is completely fair and justified for the Conservatives to link Gordon Brown directly with the failures of thirteen years of Labour Government and ask people whether they would therefore trust him with the reins of power for another five years.
I would venture that it is far harder for Labour to justify the above posters attacking George Osborne which are not simply negative but personal - and not linked to policy in any way, shape or form.
Jonathan Isaby
The announcement is important for two reasons:
One: The Tories are now in a good position to reaffirm their tax cutting credentials. We already have the commitment to freeze council tax for two years. The commitment to abolish inheritance tax for all but millionaires. A commitment to cut tax for married couples (currently undefined but that might change tomorrow too). And now this NICs tax cut.
Two: We see the Tories rejecting Labour's terms of debate. Too many times in recent years we've seen the Conservative leadership accept Labour's fiscal decisions - eg on the level of spending and the 50p tax band. George Osborne is now saying - in the wake of what we must hope was Labour's last Budget - that we will reduce the budget deficit in our own way. Labour may think that hard workjing families should pay extra tax but the Tories will say that spending cuts should do the heavy lifting. On Today last week George Osborne talked of 80% spending cuts and 20% tax rises. That's quite realistic and necessary if we are not to throttle the recovery. In a must-read letter today (reflecting on his eight year chairmanship of the Public Accounts Committee) Edward Leigh sets out a ten point plan for cutting waste and inefficiency in the public sector. Leigh deserves a big job in any Conservative government to deliver on this. So, too, does John Redwood who, again today, argues that frontline services can be protected while cutting spending by 10% in many departments.
I argued yesterday that George Osborne saved the Tories' electoral bacon in 2007. This NICs change is not the same game changer but it will give Tory activists a powerful new message for the doorstep.
It will certainly make tomorrow evening's Chancellor's Debate (8pm, Channel 4) even more interesting.
Tim Montgomerie
> Policy Exchange made the case against the NI rise last week.
3.30pm: The programme is now available to watch again, on BBC iPlayer.
VERDICT, 12.40pm: "Excellent performance from Cameron. Engaging. Reasonable. Attentive to his questioners. Direct when he disagreed with the audience (like the anti-school choice academic that the BBC had planted in the audience (real voter? I don't think so!). Hopefully by the time of the debates he'll be able to give more specific answers to questions on tax and spending. All-in-all very encouraging from the Tory leader. [And what a big contrast with Clegg]."
***
At the time of posting David Cameron is on BBC1 meeting floating voters, assembled by the Politics Show. Pasted below are pre-released highlights of his remarks.
The unions sense that Brown is weak: "I think that we have seen from the prime minister a certain weakness in response to these industrial disputes. I mean I asked him in the House of Commons four times in a row, did he support people who worked at British Airways who were going to try and go to work to keep that great British business going? And he wouldn’t answer the question. I think that is wrong. I think that it’s, I think a leader should say of course, if people want to go to work, they should go to work and I back them going to work, and I think the unions have scented weakness in the government and that’s one of the reasons why we’re seeing quite so many strikes."
We must deal with debts quickly: "If you don’t deal with your debts – it’s a bit like our credit cards – we all know the longer you leave it, the worse it gets and I think it’s important you grip the problem and at least make a start in 2010, and a lot of businesses, people like Richard Branson and others, Stuart Rose from Marks & Spencers, are saying if you deal with this early you’ll actually help get confidence back."
Lower immigration: "If you look at net immigration, i.e. the difference between people coming here and British people going and living abroad, it’s been something like two hundred thousand a year so two million across ten years. That I think is too high and as you say sir, I think we should be looking at net immigration in the tens of thousands not in the hundreds of thousands."
No more powers for the EU with the voters' consent: "My view is we should be in the European Union, we’re a trading nation, we need those markets open, we should be cooperating with our partners about the things that matter to us. But I don’t want to live in a country called Europe and I don’t think we should pass any more powers from Westminster to Brussels. In fact I think there are some powers that ought to come back from Brussels to Westminster... The best thing we can do now is pass this law that says that any government that tries to pass a power from Westminster to Brussels has got to ask the British people first. That would make a difference but where I don’t agree with UKIP Is I think we should stay in the European Union."
Grammar schools: "I mean we have 165 grammar schools I think left in the UK. They are very good schools and they have absolutely nothing to worry about from a Conservative government. We will support them, we will allow them to expand, we would hope they go on succeeding. They’re very good schools. The problem is not the 165 grammar schools. It’s actually the twenty-four thousand other schools, where there are some excellent schools but there aren’t enough of them and I think in politics you face a choice. How do we get the transformation that the grammar schools allowed for some children in the past, how do we get that for more children in the future? Now I don’t think re- fighting the battle of grammar schools versus secondary moderns in parts of the country where the grammar schools have gone would be a good use of time. It’s an argument that’s had its day, it’s an argument that’s passed and it’s now time to look at the new way to provide really great schools for children who want to have their life chances transformed and we believe opening up the state sector and saying let’s have new academies open up, let’s have charities opening new schools, let’s have private schools coming into the state sector and offering great state schools free to kids, let’s have those things as a new way of giving people the advantage that grammar schools gave in the past."
I wondered several of weeks ago if the latest amendment to the Constitutional Reform Bill instructing Returning Officers to count votes on General Election Night was robust enough.
But it would seem to be be having the desired effect. Since I wrote that post the Electoral Commission has posted two updates of when it understands constituencies to be counting the votes at the general election (viewable here and here).
And in the last fortnight or so, no fewer than 90 constituencies have switched from planned Friday counts or being undecided to definite Thursday night counts. Among the seats where General Election Night has already been saved are a considerable number of marginals, including five of the six Cornish seats, all five Edinburgh seats, both Reading seats, Torbay, Weston-super-Mare, Derbyshire South, Worcester, Stafford and Great Yarmouth.
A large number of Scottish seats have also now announced Thursday night counts, including the island constituencies of Orkney & Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Western Isles) - which begs the question: if they can manage it, having ballot boxes transported by helicopter or boat, then why not everywhere else?
So, as of today, the Electoral Commission suggests that 492 counts are definitely counting on the Thursday night, with 50 still planning on a Friday count. 78 are listed as undecided, 22 may count on the Friday if there are local elections on the same day (which is highly likely), whilst there is no information about 8 constituencies.
Check the latest list to see the intentions of your local Returning Officer and lobby your local council if you live in a seat which is yet to commit to a Thursday night count: a number of Returning Officers still need to be persuaded to count on the Thursday night if the country as a whole can be assured of getting the result of this national election overnight.
I'm expecting the Electoral Commission to publish a further update tomorrow, so will you abreast of developments...
Jonathan Isaby
24 hours ago the party launched a second round of its 'I've never voted Tory before...' posters but the party has gone negative tonight.
The first fruits of CCHQ's new relationship with M&C Saatchi can be seen with the launch of a poster campaign targeting Brown's record. There are seven ads in total, two of them below:
The messages on the other five are:
The ads do the important job of reminding voters of Gordon Brown's appalling record. The smug photo certainly works.
The ads will appear on 850 poster sites across Britain in the next few days.
***
What messages would you have put on the posters? Here's one suggestion from me...
If you have better ideas email them to me and I'll add them to mylabourposter.
The ICM survey for the News of the World finds that the Budget hurt Labour a little; "24 per cent - said they were less likely to vote Labour, with only nine per cent saying they are now more likely."
There'll be a YouGov poll along later.
8.30pm: YouGov has the Tory lead up to 5%:
A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday has the Conservatives 37% to 30% ahead, with the LibDems on 20%.
Tim Montgomerie
Two-and-a-half years ago I argued that George Osborne should be a powerful party chairman and it wasn't sensible for him to hold two jobs at a time of economic crisis. But if that was my view then I don't think it sensible for commentators like Simon Heffer - in the Telegraph today - to be calling for a different Shadow Chancellor at this point. One could almost be forgiven for thinking Mr Heffer didn't have the party's best interests at heart! Let us not forget that it was Simon Heffer who savaged Boris Johnson on the eve of his polling day battle with Ken Livingstone.
It's fashionable to knock George Osborne but let's remember the enormous good he has done the party as Shadow Chancellor.
Exhibit one is that inheritance tax cut of October 2007. Osborne and Andy Coulson led the rebellion against über-modernisers. The IHT cut - described by The Spectator as "the single most effective policy ever announced by the Conservatives in Opposition" - saved the Conservative Party's electoral bacon during Brown's honeymoon - much more, said Tory members, than Cameron's great speech or Brown's opportunistic trip to Iraq.
Exhibit two is Osborne's call on the budget deficit. Almost alone in the world the British Conservatives bravely rejected a large fiscal stimulus. George Osborne advocated monetary activism, and fiscal responsibility. He opposed the VAT cut and was proved right. All the VAT cut did was add to the deficit. Labour's fiscal splurge did not stop Britain experiencing the deepest and longest of recessions.
Exhibit three is his corporation tax agenda. Over the next few years, if the Tories win office, he plans a comprehensive simplification of the tax system and progressive cuts in corporation tax. His ambition is to make Britain the ideal HQ for global business. We certainly need that scale of ambition if we are to tackle the balance of payments crisis highlighted by Civitas today. In addition, I expect him to quickly reverse Labour's 50p tax band.
Exhibit four is his economic liberalism. Behind-the-scenes too many Tories have been arguing for heavily interventionist policies, including inteference with wage freedom. Others have wanted heavy green taxes. Osborne has been the leading opponent of such red Toryism. He understands that such measures would kill the chance of Britain growing its way out of the deficit.
Exhibit five may be to come... In the next few days - now that Darling has played his Budget card - George Osborne will announce whether he's been successful in his ambition to find a way of stopping Labour's job-destroying hike in National Insurance. I'm hopeful that he has found a way of avoiding that tax attack on hard-working families. Peter Hoskin was encouraged by the prospect; he called it a glass of clear, blue water. The Tories will then go into the election with at least four tax cut pledges; freezing council tax, abolishing IHT for non-millionaires, recognising marriage in the tax system (perhaps for parents of early years children); and stopping Labour's NICs rise. We'll know soon enough.
So, in conclusion, you can judge George Osborne on his media performances (which are not always perfect) or you can judge him on the big judgment calls (where he has been impressive). In the forty days and forty nights until election day we now need to get behind him.
Tim Montgomerie
The Eurosceptics said it would happen and again they've been proved right. Left-wing advocates of the € said that monetary union was a technical thing and suggestions that political union would inevitably follow were scare-mongering.
In the last few days we have learnt that Merkel and Sarkozy want the EU to assume responsibility for the "economic government of Europe". That basically means control of fiscal policy. The Greek economic tragedy has taught the obvious - you can't have irresponsible members of the eurozone (like Greece) free-riding on other nations' fiscal responsibility (like Germany).
So, first step monetary union. Fiscal union follows as the logical next step. And, then inevitably, some sort of political oversight of that fiscal union becomes necessary.
New economic powers for Brussels would require a new European Treaty. Should the Tories welcome this or worry about this? Given we are out of the Euro (thanks, in large part, to William Hague and his leadership from 1997 to 2001) the implications for the UK are not immediate but as an EU Member we would need to approve the Treaty change.
Speaking to The Times, Shadow Europe Minister Mark Francois confirms that the British people would get a vote on this change if the Tories win office:
“There is no clear proposal on a treaty. As we have set out, we would change the law so that any treaty that handed over areas of power from Britain to the EU would be subject to a referendum. That is our firm and clear position.”
I see a big opportunity for the Conservatives if the German Chancellor is serious about wanting these new fiscal powers for Brussels. David Cameron should say that he'll give Merkel and Sarkozy their "economic government" - so long as it only affects Eurozone members - but there'll be no Treaty unless Britain gets opt-outs from Lisbon. Deal or no deal, Angela?
Tim Montgomerie
Many commentators wrongly blame the austerity message for the Tory poll slippage.
Although there is not one single explanation I trace it to the Lisbon announcement and an unfair sense that Cameron couldn't be trusted to keep his word.
I've just listened to Radio 4's Any Questions? programme.
Vince Cable was its star.
The Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman said that he had outlined five times as many cuts as George Osborne and Darling. Lots of applause.
He said that it was wrong to ring-fence any departmental budgets because it would require even deeper cuts elsewhere. Lots of clapping.
He said that the cuts would need to be deeper than the Thatcher years. Voters deserved honesty about correcting the deficit, he said. Again, applause.
Austerity can be sold.
Tim Montgomerie
Saturday morning, 8am: Dizzy agrees: "Yes, you really can sell austerity".
In February, the party launched this poster campaign featuring three people who are voting Conservative for the first at this general election.
The latest phase is about to be launched, with three new first-time Tory voters. They are:
1. Tina from Cheltenham, whose concerns about creating a new politics are aired and featured in a video here.
2. Sheelagh from Frodsham, whose concerns about education are aired and featured in a video here.
3. Hector from Abingdon, whose concerns about the NHS are aired and featured in a video here.
Jonathan Isaby
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