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Wednesday, 14th April 2010

The future might be yellow

Daniel Korski 12:31pm

The Liberal Democrats are doing well. Very well. More voters seem actively to want a hung parliament - they neither hate Labour or love the Tories enough to act decisevely either way - and a vote for Nick Clegg seems a safe, fair choice.

A few years ago Paddy Ashdown was over the moon to have won far fewer MPs than the party is hoping for at this election. Then came the "Iraq Bounce" with Charles Kennedy's anti-war stance doing the party well. Many assumed that without a clear-cut issue, and having chosen a leader who looked like David Cameron's younger brother, the Lib Dems might struggle. Instead, the party seems to be fighting off Tory inroads.

Nick Clegg will also join David Cameron and Gordon Brown in the TV debates - a coup Paddy Ashdown would have sold a relative to get in his day.

Many of the Lib Dem policies are noteworthy. It is right to refuse to ring-fence the NHS.  Labour has proven that more money will not solve the NHS's problems and protecting every job, every outlay, every programme makes little sense. The same can be said of DFID. The party's willingness to be detailed in their deficit-slashing measures is also welcome. Finally, the manifesto's central idea - the promise to raise the personal allowance to £10,000 - will benefit 3.5 million people, and please a lot of people (though the "mansion tax" needed to pay for it won't).

None of this is to say that the Lib Dems will keep enough of the wind in their sails. The party is riven by policy contradictions and shows, at times, an unserious, think-tank approach to national policy. Think of their ill-considered Trident policy.  

Nick Clegg can do well, as on  Newsnight, and really really badly as on the Today programme. But if you would have told me that two years ago that they would be where they are today I just would not have believed you. As Julian Astle of CentreForum told me: "the public seems to have decided that Labour deserves to loose but that the Tories do not deserve to win - which can only benefit the third party".  Who knows, 24 percent maybe? 

Filed under: Election 2010 (306 more articles) , Interviews (26 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (118 more articles) , Nick Clegg (97 more articles) , Spending cuts (146 more articles) , Tax cuts (36 more articles) , UK politics (1432 more articles) , Vince Cable (40 more articles)

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Alexsandr

April 14th, 2010 12:39pm Report this comment

Hung parliament. Lib/lab pact. 5 years more brown.
Aaaaaaaarrrrrrggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!

Richard of York

April 14th, 2010 12:46pm Report this comment

One thing is for sure the future is not Pink conservatism.

stephen

April 14th, 2010 12:54pm Report this comment

What depressimg reading! But it does look as if Cameron and particularly his Boy George have blown it! A wishy washy launch with no financial hard details; just policies which mainly suit professional busy bodies who think they can run their local PO's and pubs. Sadly Boy George was not born when the last experiment of people coop's were tried and failed in the 70's!

Paul Hughes

April 14th, 2010 1:00pm Report this comment

Without a half-decent mandate for the conservatives, the only thing of which we can be sure is that the future will involve the IMF.

Wonderful. Well done to all concerned. Take a weak-willed nation still hooked on easy options and snake oil. Add a few million public servants who'll vote for self preservation. Blend in a dash of left leaning immigrants. Sprinkle on a rump of bitter UKIPers and, hey presto, a meaningless election and fiscal collapse.

JohnT

April 14th, 2010 1:07pm Report this comment

'More voters seem actively to want a hung parliament'
That's because vast numbers suck at the public teat, and think their pension comes out of the wall socket.
A hung parliament will scare the equity and gilt markets big-time, send the £ into free fall, and stifle growth. For anarchists who have no investment in the future, great news.

Tankus

April 14th, 2010 1:23pm Report this comment

I cant believe that no one has yet mentioned that Gordon has finally admitted his incompetence as chancellor.

JONNY

April 14th, 2010 1:46pm Report this comment

All we need is for the Tories numerically
to end up with more seats than Labour and LD combined.
That'll take the wind out of their Hung Parliament sails.
And reduce Clegg the Kingmaker
to Clegg the Cleggover.

Richard of York

April 14th, 2010 1:55pm Report this comment

@Tankus
Thats because it's not news.
The statement says he felt the gov should have been tougher on regulation and not listened to those who called for a lighter touch.
Problem for Oik and Cam is they were part of the those!
Hansard well documents Cameron calling for the gov to set the banks free and to set the markets free.

Verity

April 14th, 2010 2:05pm Report this comment

Mr Korski writes of undecided, formerly committed, voters: "they neither hate Labour or love the Tories enough to act decisevely either way."

The third tranche is Tories who loathe Dave Pinko Cameron. This man, empty of everything except ambition and self-regard, could not now get my vote no matter what he promises. He's as sleazy as Blair.

JONNY

April 14th, 2010 2:08pm Report this comment

Is Richard of York
the same Richard as
Richard of Tel-Aviv?

Lord Monkington-Smythe

April 14th, 2010 2:27pm Report this comment

@Richard

Of course, it was all George Osborne's fault. There's me thinking that as Chancellor of the Exchequer and then Prime Minister, McDoom was in charge!

Nicholas

April 14th, 2010 2:32pm Report this comment

Richard the Dork - but Brown has been Chancellor and PM for 13 years. Are you saying that he followed Cameron and Osborne's call for "light touch" regulation? Let's cut to the chase, since you are citing the historical record:-

1. What date(s) did Cameron and Osborned call for it?

2. What date did Brown take responsibility for the Treasury?

This is the problem with New Labour. It is always someone else's fault, even when Brown admits that he did not regulate adequately, somehow the blame is switched back to the Tories.

And please tell us who separated regulatory responsibility into a now generally discredited tri-partite system. It wasn't Cameron and Osborne was it?

PS When you stop referring to Osborne as "oik" I shall stop referring to you as "Dork".

Mark Cannon

April 14th, 2010 2:46pm Report this comment

Given that the best that Labour and LibDem supporters can hope for is a hung Parliament, it is hardly surprising that this is a popular option. Think before you write.

Jean Monnet

April 14th, 2010 2:53pm Report this comment

"the public seems to have decided that Labour deserves to loose but that the Tories do not deserve to win - which can only benefit the third party"

English isn't my first language but I think Mr Astle or you mean "lose". Mr Astle, because he is a Lib Dem, is ignoring the other parties that are profiting from the fact that voters are not enamoured by Brown or the balding, balloon-faced Lidl own-brand version of Blair.

Ian Walker

April 14th, 2010 2:59pm Report this comment

I have a sneaking suspicion that Cameron may use the telly debates to smash Clegg for six. Let's face it, anyone daft enough to still want to vote Labour is too far gone to convert now. And the average Lib Dem policy will stand no more heat and light than a piece of tissue.

So it makes tactical sense for Cameron to tear Lib Dem policies apart, rather than letting Clegg try the "plague on both their houses" schtick.

Andy Carpark

April 14th, 2010 3:00pm Report this comment

'Labour deserves to loose [sic] but that the Tories do not deserve to win - which can only benefit the third party'

Non sequitur. The golden opportunity for protest votes occurred last year in the Euro elections. The Liberals scored a pisspoor 13.7% of the popular vote.

Woody

April 14th, 2010 3:05pm Report this comment

Heaven help us if this silly twerp gets anywhere near power. He can't go anywhere without his 'surrogate' Dad, St Vince of Flip Flopping.
It needs to be shouted very loud, that it won't just be an open door immigration policy, it will no door at all, it will be EVERYBODY COME AND JOIN US.
We will also join the euro and this will be the price of a coalition with Labour.

Cuffleyburgers

April 14th, 2010 3:51pm Report this comment

Calm down chaps, we all know the reliability of Mr Korski's blogs and this is another one - of course people are saying all sorts of things because they can and because at this stage it costs nothing. Just like the euro erections really and even the council elections.

However, I strongly suspect that, pencil in hand, in the polling booth, a sensible majority of britons will realise that a vote for brown is national suicide, a vote for clegg is wasted and risks national suicide, and will place their x's in correct ie tory box.

Numerous studies have shown that the "right" party wins and this election will be no exception.

Furthermore, verity you really should cut down on the crab apples. I believe the tory manifesto contains a lot of good sense, attractive policies, enough to make a very good start on undoing some of the damage wrought by the labour traitors.

Peachie

April 14th, 2010 3:57pm Report this comment

People in England really need to think about what they are going to do if Brown is kept in power by a combination of Scottish Labour MPs and the Lib Dems, as seems increasingly likely. There will surely be a majority of Tory MPs in England. Given that Labour and the Lib Dems will change the voting system to ensure that the Tories can never again win a general election, are the English prepared to see what little remains of democracy in their once great country finally extinguished or are they going to get off their apathetic backsides and do something about it?
This is their last chance. I'm Scottish, by the way.

Johnnyboy

April 14th, 2010 4:36pm Report this comment

Cleggy and Compo... the future. Are you serious?

Holly ......

April 14th, 2010 4:43pm Report this comment

Lots of people who will vote against Labour are lying about who they will vote for.
An answer to Kay Burley..Sky news earlier.

Beer Moth

April 14th, 2010 4:56pm Report this comment

'Either.....or. Neither.....nor'

Sort this out before our next meeting Korski, or its jankers.

Viv Evans

April 14th, 2010 5:04pm Report this comment

'Hung Parliament' - ah yes, the wet dream of everybody living in Westminster Village.

Sounds so much nicer than 'five more years of Gord and 'friends'.

The stupidity prevalent in those wrapped up in the Westminster bubble never fails to amuse me.

JONNY

April 14th, 2010 5:23pm Report this comment

Looks like Verity's finally come off the fence

Hysteria

April 14th, 2010 6:01pm Report this comment

I agree with Cuffley - frankly it (the Tory manifesto) is the first time I have heard any language that remotely attempts to define how we can get a better system of government. (Still waiting to see what Dan Hannan makes of it tho')

Are the naysayers positing that there is no hope? That the people of the UK are so wedded to a state teat that any slight glimmer of change must, de facto, be opposed?

Freeborn John

April 14th, 2010 6:04pm Report this comment

Dnaiel Korski is one of the worst European federalists alive, being employed by a ultra-federalist European Council on Foreign Relations. He supports the LibDems becuase they are the most Federalist party in British politics. If care about trust in british politics do not vote for the LibDems who lied in their 2005 manifesto about wanting a referendum on the EU COnsitution. Nick Clegg was a part of that big lie as his article in the Guardian at the following link shows:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/oct/15/politicalcolumnists.eu

Nick Clegg is part of the federalist clqique that has brought British politics into such low regard. He lied about the EU to win votes before the 2005 election and he is lying again today.

Robert Williams

April 14th, 2010 6:11pm Report this comment

Nicky Campbell on R5 this morning left the Lib Dem spokesperson looking a chump over the party's policy to increase the pay only of other ranks in the armed forces. Campbell pointed out that a lance corporal would have higher pay then a lieutenant.

I have similar fears over my differential with the £10,000 tax allowance - we oldies already have a tax free allowance in excess of £9500. Eroding differentials will not endear fellow crumbly Cable to OAPs

Snowman

April 14th, 2010 6:22pm Report this comment

Verity @ 2.05: am with you all the way, don’t let go.

The whole country less a couple of Dicks and those on transfer payments are for a move not to the right, but to common sense, to policies that would reclaim the country for those who’ve paid taxes all their working lives, the streets for the law abiding, the money for the wealth creators, the climate for nature.

Cameron doesn’t even smell of conservatism; he began yapping ‘I’m heir to Blair, and he’s turning exactly like the one who used the PM job as a transient platform for personal enrichment. The unwashed sense it right, they always do. It’ll be all right on the day.

JONNY

April 14th, 2010 7:04pm Report this comment

Can't agree with you there Snowman.
Your dislike of Cameron is rational. And therefore worthy of a good deal of sympathy.

Verity's plunges us into a vindictive irrational world where Super Ego gives way to Id.
The SuperEgo gives way to the Id.

Captain Christy

April 14th, 2010 8:50pm Report this comment

The voters of the UK cannot be relied on to do the right thing. Too many are un-educated and too many have an Ostrich mentality, and a lot of them will vote Lib-Dem as a pointless protest, and in the process let Labour back in. Take the 5/1 Labour ! By the way, why do so many people write "loose" when they mean "lose" ?

Victor Southern

April 14th, 2010 10:52pm Report this comment

You are wrong Mr. Korski. There are far more people who want a strong and decisive government then would plump for a hung Parliament. I am referring to those who understand enough about politics to have an opinion at all.

The LibDems must never be allowed to have a part in government. They remind me of Churchill who was told that a Mr. Bossom had an appointment with him. "Bossom" he said, "what kind of name is that - neither one thing nor the other".

High tax, low tax. EU referendum, no EU referendum. For an NI increase, against an NI increase. The LibDems have found out how to face in both directions at once.

I do hope that you are truly disappointed on May 7th. It may well be that old-fashioned commonsense may be restored to Great Britain.

daniel maris

April 15th, 2010 1:49pm Report this comment

I think some people here are underestimating the shear weight of PC propaganda to which younger people have been subjected in teh media and in schools, which makes it v. difficult for them ever to consider voting Tory (particularly a Tory Party that seems to lick its collective lips at the prospect of eroding people's conditions of employment, particularly in the public sector).

I am not at all surprised to see the Lib Dems doing well given Clegg is a pretty good performer. They may have lost touch with reality, but offering to put money back in people's pockets didn't do Reagan any harm.

I feel its too late for the Tories to change their connection with the electorate now - they have rejected the populism of UKIP to earn the support of the Left-Liberal media (which is helping them undoubtedly in terms of press and TV coverage) but have given the impression they are after people's pay and pensions.

How well they do now will really be a function of how badly Labour and Brown come across. They seem a very tired and sorry bunch which could yet deliver victory to the Tories.

But I would put Tory support at under 40, Lib Dems on polling day (when they hoover up the ditherers) at 28% and Labour on 28-32%. IN other words a hung parliament I think.

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The question after tonight: will there be a poll that puts the Lib Dems second at some point in this campaign? JGF

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 22:50:35 +0000

RT @pete_hoskin: And now a Coffee House verdict on the #leadersdebate from @frasernels: http://is.gd/buzxt

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 22:26:03 +0000

RT @martinbright: My verdict on my Spectator blog: http://bit.ly/bWpkvJ. Well done chaps

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 22:21:03 +0000

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