As well as the main national ICM poll there’s a new marginals survey by the firm in the News of the World based on the same seats as the paper’s January marginals poll.

With all marginal polls the critical factor is the swing from what happened in those seats at the 2005 general election and here that is at 6.3% - or better than that in tonight’s standard ICM poll. The gap, however, isn’t large.

The big change on the January 2010 poll are the four point drop in the Tory share and a huge increase, to higher than 2005 election levels, for the Lib Dems.

You would expect that the Lib Dems would see their share really squeezed here and from these polling figures at least that does not seem to be happening.

UPDATE: Labour have MOE increase in the daily poll

Mike Smithson

There’s quite a lot of poll news tonight and this post will be updated - but the most significant is the latest from ICM for the Sunday Telegraph. This looks markedly different from the Guardian ICM poll that came out on Tuesday evening and where the fieldwork took place over the Easter holiday period.

That 4% Labour deficit was by far its best position from the firm since 2008 and did, on the face of it, look out of place. Now tonight’s survey puts it into context.

UPDATE: Also shown above is the latest from ComRes which has both Labour and the Tories moving up two each at the expanse of the the Lib Dems who, surprisingly, are down to 16%.

Mike Smithson