YouGov show 10 point Conservative lead
YouGov’s poll in the Sun today has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%, so little change in the Conservative lead as we head towards the election.
This poll has a significant methodological change, albeit one which has made hardly any difference to the topline figures. Unlike nearly all of the other pollsters YouGov do not normally take into account likelihood to vote in their topline figures – based I believe on the theory that away from elections polls are snapshots, rather than predictions.
In 2005 in YouGov’s final pre-election poll they did factor in likelihood to vote, which decreased the Labour lead slightly and made YouGov’s final prediction more accurate. At this election YouGov have decided to factor it in from the start of the campaign, so on the assumption that Brown will call the election tomorrow, they are now in election mode and the figures are weighted by likelihood to vote in the same way that Populus do.
This actually makes very little difference to the figures. Without weighting by likelihood to vote the figures would have been CON 40%(+1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2), so all the likelihood weighting did was push up the Conservatives by one point (which, I should add is pretty typical of the testing we’ve done over the last month. It’s never made more than 1 point difference).
Methodological discussion aside, YouGov’s poll shows Labour rising at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, though obviously the lead has a rather greater contrast! Given the normal doubts about polls over bank holidays, I think the chances are that YouGov or ICM have got a strange bank holiday sample (Opinium don’t have any political weighting, so are likely to be a bit erratic anyway).
With recent polls coming together somewhat around a Conservative lead of around 10 points or just below, it’s probably better to be sceptical of the ICM poll until and unless other pollsters show a similar narrowing of the lead. I expect we’ll have no shortage of polling over the next few days to enlighten us.
Filed under: Methodology, Voting Intention, YouGov, YouGov Daily Polls
Appears to supports the view that ICM is this week’s rogue.
Why this change in methodology? This methodolgy worked in 2005 and the mayoral elections. Has the pressure placed from Telegraph resulted in this change – would be shocking if that’s the case.
Does this change null any comparisons to previous polls? For me it sounds like comparing eggs with apples.
I am looking forward to a forthcoming Telegraph article acusing ICM of pro-Labour bias…
I am pleasently surprised. I expected a reduction to the region of 6-8% lead.
41% is a very important figure.
Conservatives back in the 40s is news that Labour would have dreaded the day before Brown hands in his notice.
Labour have no ammunition left and I believe the Conservatives will have a maj of 30 to 40.
And the BBC website has confirmed GB off to see the queen tomorrow.
Finally!
I shall be interested to hear Bill Roy on this subject (LTV), when he is on the mend of course.
Brown to call an election tomorrow for May 6th according to BBC News.
Hardly seems worth commenting on, at least until we have another ICM poll. Just when we thought there was significant convergence we have a real split.
Don’t you just love Tory Twitterers, the only thing that was missing was Eric Pickles tweetering the wrong results….again.
this appears to be a rogue.
a poll (in the Sun) showing the Tories above 40% for the first time in ages on the day the GE will be announced…
So we (probably) start with the cons holding a lead big enough to form an overall majority but both a landslide and hung parliament with Labour the largest party in seat but not vote terms still just about possible.
All to play for.
This is yet another reminder that we should be cautious about Twitter rumours, lol.
An excellent result for the Conservatives, though maintaining the 10 point lead from Saturday’s poll. Slightly disappointing for the Lib Dems perhaps. I guess Labour will be happy with 2 of the days polls being over 30, which is a bit poor really.
The average of the last 10 polls is 38.4 – 30.2 – 19.8 giving 305 – 263 – 52 seats (uniform swing) seeing Con 21 seats short. Lets see where the campaign proper takes us from here.
Just an extra thought and then enough already. Don’t see any moans yet that field work for YouGov carried out over holiday. I wonder why?
Could someone confirm the Tory figure? There’s a rumour going round that it’s 40%, not 41%.
Chris – read the article.
YouGov also switched to take account of likelihood to vote in 2005 (though much later in the campaign). This IS the methodology that worked in 2005.
For comparing to past polls, the difference today (increasing the Conservative vote by 1) is entirely typical, but the figures without likelihood to vote weighting will always be published too anyway.
given that no-one else has the tories even on 40%, this raises some eyebrows…
labour will be happy to be back in the 30s.
Well it’s clear that YouGov are totally biased towards Labour and can’t be trusted.
Only kidding folks…….
At least this new methodology saves Bill Roy a lot of trouble. It seems that only the new methodology has prevented Labour from apparently narrowing the lead by one point, but I
Another methodological change?
Can’t you just stick to one weighting scheme? It makes comparisons very hard.
Harry – the Tory figure is 40% without likelihood to vote weighting, and 41% with likelihood to vote weighting.
The latter is what YouGov will regard as their “topline” voting intention figure during the election campaign.
Interesting point on weighting for likelihood to vote. Every day recently we’ve had someone adjusting the Labour figure down for YouGov polls in an untested way for this. Thankfully now this will stop.
WHOOPS – meant to continue, but I for one prefer accuracy in polls rather than seeing what I want to see.
Weighted Moving Average = 39:30:20.
Nothing much changes from my last post except that we now have a Retrospective on the ICM and it seems indeed to be badly out (4.8) though not as bad as their two previous rogues last year.
2 week WMA trend has an R2 of 0.75 which is as good as it gets. If it continues the CLead at the GE would be 16, so my handy “predictor” is (16+8)/2=12.
Whoever is telling Brown that fighting on a platform of “government waste + tax on jobs + fighting every private sector business organisation + denying cancer patients the drugs their doctors think they need” wants him to lose and lose badly.
@AW – From you ignoring the point on Telegraph pressure – I take from lack on an answer this is correct then?
I was intrigued as to how YouGov weight by likeliehood to vote. This is probably a naive question born of ignorance. The act of voting and responding to a pollster a fundamentally different ones, and there is a reality gap down which some things will disappear. Therefore likeliehood to vote depends on a judgement made by the pollster made on some evidence. Furthermore, non-voting and its effect of the electorate between different elections is something very important in determining British elections, and it rarely commented on with the depth it deserves. How does a pollster examine likely non-voting? Does it at all? How does it differentiate between the voters generally disengaged from politics, protesting about politics, or protesting about the party they normally vote for?
Anthony – Thanks for the clarification – the YouGov site seems overwhelmed at the moment.
My guess is that we’re still looking at a 7-9% Tory lead, with momentum still with the Conservatives.
Tories go into the election confident having overcome their wobble and having scored a direct hit on Labour with their NIC policy.
Labour approach the election having lost the momentum they had built up from two solid months of pounding the Conservatives. Surely, must now be regretting that Brown did not have the courage to call an earlier election for 25th March, and so start the campaign when the Tories were still in some disarray.
Apart from tonights ICM poll, all the polls for the last 2 weeks have had the Tories on 37% or above and a steaily growing % lead over Labour. I think an impartial judge would have to say this is a solid trend with one rogue result.
Chris – nope, I just considered it beneath my dignity to bother replying to such nonsense.
It is now important that the Tories hold their nerve and behave like a government in waiting. Labour are not dead yet and as posts to this very high grade site show, whatever Labour have done or do, they have support from a “divine wind”. Mandelson dropped the ball last week but never ever discount him. Steady the Blues and concentrate on the asperations of the British people. I hope Gordon Browns frame of mind is suitable for his meeting tomorrow.
So would this mean a hung parliament?
Whatever the case, this is going to be a fascinating four weeks. I really believe though that, as obvious as it sounds, we’re not going to know the results until the night of the GE. As much as I have faith in the polls, I think this is going to be a somewhat unpredictable election. So of course, that will mean lots of predicting!
Any news from marginal seats especially the supermarginals?
@Antony – just coincidence then? It was a straight question and I don’t think there’s a need for such patronization
Difficult to see how labour in 30s four weeks pre election is positive when cons are 40+
there is not much now for brown to play with other than a cameron cock-up and the more likely scenario is that more bad things will happen to incumbents than pretenders over the coming month….
John Fletcher
“Apart from tonights ICM poll, all the polls for the last 2 weeks have had the Tories on 37% or above and a steaily growing % lead over Labour. I think an impartial judge would have to say this is a solid trend with one rogue result.”
Can’t agree, sorry. The polls do show a slight groth in tory polls since about the 27th. Today’s ICM result is only down 1 point on yesterday’s and is still above their result from the 27th. Such a small change is statistically insignificant and an impartial judge would dismiss it until more data is in. As a general rule, I don’t put much weight on today’s result at all until I can view it in the light of the next result from the same pollster. One reading doesn’t make a trend.
If the Tories are now in majority territory it will make the deabtes a bit easier for Cameron. He does not need to go chasing or to be rash. All that is required is that he plays his cool. In one respect it is good news for labour. Media scrutiny will now almost universally be on the Tory party…. that is unless people seize on teh ICM 4% which we can safely say is a woopsy dooo.
I await a populus and Ipsos Mori but I have the Tory lead at 8-9%
In the past week the YG poll has suddenly shown a large divergence in share. Previously YG polls were showing small but consistant narrowing of the lead
with very little day to day variation.
Are we assume that the Osborne policy of reducing Labours proposed NICs has resulted in this YG Tory lead?
If this is the case I find it worrying that the electorate (or at least those polled by YG) can look no further than a slight reduction in their outgoings without wondering where the Tory cuts will fall.
Another worry for me is that although most of the news over the weekend has been negative for both Labour and tory, it is the Lib Dems who have suffered most. Seems to confirm the thought that there is no such thing as bad news.
@NICKOK
Nick this poll in isolation would give the Tories a majority with their small bonus in the marginals. The only thing to upset that on a poll of polls so to speak over the last few results, is tonights ICM.
@Colin G
If you go to the list of latest polls on the home page and look at the results since the 24th March I think you will find I am correct with my calculations.
It is simply a fact that todays ICM poll is going against the trend of all the others, including the other 2 out tonight.
Are people discussing this poll in isolation without regard to the ICM? It was a few days ago considered by many on these threads as being more accurate. So on that basis averaging this and ICM) the Tory lead is not likely to give anywhere near a landslide even if a working majority happens
Oh no – there’s another hmmm here!
I’m not particularly surprised by the tory figure, as nothing much has happened to change the polls, though I am quite surprised at the libs being down.
It all gets very exciting from here!
The mysterious bank holiday phenomenon doesn’t seem to apply to You Gov now.
Curious that there is a +2% change for Lab on like-for-like comparison.
ANTHONY
So, Labour supporters latch on to tonight’s ICM poll, Tory supporters latch on tonight’s YouGov poll and in the process inevitably make partisan comments. A few people try and see the wood for the trees and make sensible comments which reflect balance and objectivity – and so it will go on until the election. I shall stick with this site as others are even worse. I’d like to see some polling (if it is technically possible to frame questions appropriately) about the sort of choices people will be faced with – for instance it’s almost certain that the Tory’s will increase prescription charges to £10.00 and it would be interesting to know how people would react to a question such as ‘would you be prepared to see prescription charges increased to £10.00 if that would help protect frontline services in the NHS?’.
what is certain from all three polls is that Labour have steadied. Their average is 31% accross all three.
I wonder why certainty to vote is not deducted from labour but rather added to the Tories.
why was the poll not 40-30? am i dumb?
@EOIN CLARKE
Over the last 3 centuries there’s many a Frenchman or German
who wished they had not met a wild fighting Irish like you or a mild mannered Home counties English like me. But here we are agreeing to the letter. Your last post is spot on.
John Fletcher
“If you go to the list of latest polls on the home page and look at the results since the 24th March I think you will find I am correct with my calculations.
It is simply a fact that todays ICM poll is going against the trend of all the others, including the other 2 out tonight.”
I keep a spreadsheet of all the polls and have analysed the data thoroughly. My point is that today’s ICM poll is well within the margin of error and so cannot be counted as a rogue.
Hi
I’ve only posted a couple of times here, but aren’t all these polls roughly within the margin of error? So that there is likely to be between a 4% and 10% Tory lead?
Plus we know from the recent ICM research in today’s Guardian article that Lib Dem support is the most volatile and that there are a significant number of Lib Dem and Conservative voters who may switch to Labour.
The interesting things for me are will the Lib Dem vote be squeezed and will it go to Labour, plus will the Tories be able to keep on board their potential switchers?
Suggests to me that it is all to play for. The probability of outcomes on electoral calculus seem about right to me.
Tory Majority 39%
Labour Majority 15%
Con/Lib Dem Coalition 19%
Lab/Lib Dem Coalition 16%
Lib Dem choice of Coalition 11%
They currently predict Tories short a majority by 26.
Very difficult but not impossible for Labour to get a majority and still a lot of work for the Tories to do as well.
@Eoin
Presumably because the Tory likelihood to vote was stronger than Lab’s
I wonder if, with a collective anxiety about how the economy is to be handled, we will see a continuous swinging back and forth right up until the election; support swelling, then deflating.
Perhaps with the tories hitting the 40 mark, we will see a drop in support again, with people panicking over the prospect of what the tories will do to the economy. And then, in reaction to this, it rising again, with people panicking over the prospect of what labour will do to the economy.
If this is the case, I’d imagine we will see an even tighter election result than has been predicting, with people at last minute, returning to who they have voted for in the past. I’d imagine we’d also then see a better result for Labour as being the incumbent government, they could be seen as the safest vote.
one other matter
2005’s combined blue and red % was between 68-9%
are we now saying it is 72%,
i happen to agree, but this is the first polling company suggesting such
Somewhat surprised at ICM, they are a pollster I tend to pay quite a bit of attention to. Within the lower limit of the MOE, but it seems inconsistent with the rest over the past 4-5 days, and indeed with ICM’s own previous poll on Friday giving the Tories +9. Is there a general consensus thet this is a rogue???? Perhaps a lot of potential reasondants were away for the weekend???
I would recon the YouGov tonight is fairly accurate, and the Opinium, whilst I know little of their methodology, I cite this as back up confirmation, given they both paint a roughly similar picture.
From my rough scribbles, 39 is really the threshold for a majority, possibly just scraping by at 38 but certinly no lower than that. 40+ is really moving into “reasonable-comfortable” working majority territory.
A somewhat sleepless night for GB. The weight of his heart will no doubt be backbreaking for him as he tackles the steps up to the palace- the end of a myserable easter holiday at the Labour camp.
Re peterbell. The electorate are not on the whole that stupid, the nics move in my view just “cattle prodded” everyone who was starting to believe lab spin about Tories not being for many, but few and also labour being party for jobs/business into realising what labour has really delivered v promised and who are partly culpable for the mess we are in…….
“I await a populus and Ipsos Mori but I have the Tory lead at 8-9%”
I think that is a fair estimate. Both the Tory’s and Labour’s share of the vote tonight were higher at the expense of the Lib Dems. This probably merely reflects the fact that the Lib Dems haven’t really been in the news much in the past 7 days.
@DAVID B
Exactly, and will Labour provide more helicoptors and 81mm mortars for British Forces in Helmand. I think we should be told,
not mispeaked.
@colin G
What do you consider to be an acceptable margin or error please?
Anthony
So likelihood to vote makes little difference in GB YG polls.
I wonder whether the same is true of Scottish YG polls?
I’d like to see some details of the Age Concern poll as the previous (non-likelihood to vote Scottish poll) showed the age differential in VI as
Party, Lab, SNP, Con, LD
18-34, 35, 23, 17, 18
35-55, 45, 20, 18, 13
55+, 32, 30, 20, 13
I suppose we’ll need to wait for some other randomly commissioned Scottish poll, hope that it’s likelihood to vote weighted and see what the consequences are.
VERY unsatisfactory!
DavidB – you are obviously trying to make this rumour viral with no supporting evidence whatsoever! This I think is the third time you have posted this today.
Why?
AW – Now I can put my calculator away, temporarily of course.
I find it amazing that voters can still think that Labour could be a safe pair of hands. How Labour can still be in with a shout after what they have done to this country over the past 13 years, suggests to me that voters have lost their way.
Come on, let’s all be honest, none of us REALLY know what’s going on out there and that’s what makes this election, potentially, one of the most interesting for 30 or 40 years. Both of tonight’s polls ICM and YouGov) are legitimate “snapshot” reflections of public opinion and to try and rubbish one vis-a-vis the other is just the sort of straw-clutching, partisan nonsense that, on occasions, makes this comment page almost unbearable.
My feel for the current situation, based on the polling evidence of the last 6 weeks and what I’m picking up on the ground) is this. Opinion is volatile and very susceptible to the fluctuations and vagaries of daily events. I think there’s a high proportion of undecided and, possibly, apathetic voters with very little, if any, particular party affiliation or loyalty. There’a a lot of cynicism too and this is potentially dangerous for both of the two main parties. All in all, anybody who pretends they can predict the eventual outcome of this election (along the lines of the inane “Cameron’s a shoo-in” and “Brown’s toast” blah de blah de blah) is either a charlatan or a blinkered partisan or, very likely, both!
What’s truly wonderful about all this is that we have an election approaching that’s impossible to accurately call. How refreshing and, quite possibly, how invigorating for our sclerotic and near moribund political culture. Crikey, could we even get a 62% turn out!!??
David B
for instance it’s almost certain that the Tory’s will increase prescription charges to £10.00 and it would be interesting to know how people would react to a question such as ‘would you be prepared to see prescription charges increased to £10.00 if that would help protect frontline services in the NHS?’
Are the Tories really saying this?
John Fletcher
“What do you consider to be an acceptable margin or error please?”
+/- 3% is about the average isn’t it? I’d go by whatever the pollster quotes themselves. Certainly I wouldn’t get excited about a 1 point change from the previous poll until I had the next poll result too.
A poll result’s margin of error means this: If an infinite number of polls were done just like this one on the same day, 95% of them would be within the quoted margin of error of the truth.
From the available data, I would guess that the Conservatives are on about 39% of the vote today. ICM’s poll of 37 is 2 points off from this which is inside the margin of error. There have been 27 polls since the 20th of March and they follow a linear trend starting at 36 and ending today on 39. My number crunching colleagues at work tell me that a sample should contain 33 data points to get a reasonable analysis but we work to 6 sigma (99.8% confidence IIRC) where as polls are happy with 2 sigma (95% confidence)
Ooo! We’re better than I thought. 6 sigma is actually 99.9997% confidence. Personally, I’m not that confident about anything!
Others at 9-10 in You Gov and ICM, even Optimumshould them down to 15. The way coverage during an election is organised I think it will be difficult for others to recover overall, although I still see the affects being ver mixed.
This proves my theory that ICM are bias towards Labour. GE has been confirmed it will be called tomorrow and I now am certain of a Tory majority.
What a great night.
@SPINAKER
“I find it amazing that voters can still think that Labour could be a safe pair of hands. How Labour can still be in with a shout after what they have done to this country over the past 13 years, suggests to me that voters have lost their way.”
A rather biased comment in the extreme. It very much depends where you are coming from. Many of us feel exactly the same way about the 18 years of tory government and are fearful of a repeat.
craig u
“This proves my theory that ICM are bias towards Labour.”
Oh do come along!
Anthony – do you know what the raw data for this poll was? Am I right in assuming it was the unweighted numbers you quote above? Or is there other weighting that goes on?
Someone speculates … “without wondering where the Tory cuts will fall.”
No one knows where anyone’s cuts will fall. There have been leaks that under Labour there would be £20 billion of cuts and ward closures. BTW – hardly anyone actually pays for prescriptions, certainly not the sick.
All this polling is confusing enough. Will someone care to define what is a super marginal?
“All this polling is confusing enough. Will someone care to define what is a super marginal?”
I don’t know but I’m betting that Solihull counts (notional Maj 17)
@Colin G
I suppose if the Tory vote was out by -3% and the Labour vote was out by +3% then you would reduce the 10% lead the tories have in the other polls to only the 4% ICM show, but it is at the limits is it not?
@ Spinaker
“I find it amazing that voters can still think that Labour could be a safe pair of hands. How Labour can still be in with a shout after what they have done to this country over the past 13 years, suggests to me that voters have lost their way.”
Regarding your first point, i don’t think all that many people think that Labour are “a safe pair of hands”, but quite a few people will probably vote Labour because they know what they are getting. As for your second point, well, that’s your opinion.
NICK HADLEY
One of the best posts I’ve read on this site for some time- thank you!
DAVEY
I’ve been accused of trying to spread a malicious rumour about possible Tory plans to raise prescription charges to £10.00 in order, allegedly, to help fund NHS frontine services. I have no written evidence about this and neither has anyone else but I have had to emailed communications from two contacts who say they have picked this up from people who work at Tory HQ. Now, they may indeed be spreading rumours or this may be just the sort of policy which an incoming Tory government might implement; maybe I’m biased but i do remember that the Thatcher government increased prescription charges pretty quickly in 79-80.
I think the Tory’s should be concerned as electorate usually swings back to governing party during campaign.
@DAVIDB………..Thanks for that ! I seem to recall you criticising this site for not sticking to its remit, what was the word you used….vapid !
@Howard I think it would be wrong of me to post my usual 40 30 20 10 tonight now!
I feel I must revise my GE Prediction (just for the fun)
So here it is:
Con 41
Lab 29
LD 21
Conservative majority 20-40 (marginals effect)
Good night (good week) for the Conservatives
GB off to Her Majesty tomorrow and then theres nothing at all he can do about it – it’s all up to us The Electorate
Good Night Everyone
Talk of marginals or supermarginals is interesting. The Tories only need a swing of 4% in Lab-Con marginals to take 50 seats of Labour. Given recent polling I think we can safely assume if you are a Labour MP in the first 50 Tory targets you should start looking for alternative employement.
I think the Tories will defintley take 75 from Lab/SNP/LD combined. The real seats to watch are from 90-140 on Tory target list.
Heading back towards Conservative overall majority situation here. Need some consistent polling for that to firmly be the case.
Has everyone forgotten the UKIP view of the tax/spend/pay off the national debt question? Leave Europe and get all that lovely money to do all those things at once with no problems. Well, perhaps no immediate problems. That’s going to be an attractive idea methinks.
@Keith…………..We could renegotiate our financial contribution in the case of a national emergency.
@keith
Its only attractive if it ever had a chance of happening.
On the day many a supposed UKIP voter will hold their nose and vote Tory especially in the marginals. The greater the chance of DC winning and outright majority the more of them will vote Tory methinks
The Conservative capacity to capture seats, based on the three polls tonight, and assuming that none are rogues, is somewhat better than the figures suggest.
The Others figure has fallen from its very high levels, but I would still expect it to fall a bit further helping the Tories more (mainly UKIP and BNP voters who are unlikely to go to Labour). Second, if we take Scotland out of the reckoning the Tory lead in England and Wales rises substantially. Of course this means ‘abandoning’ Scotland, but there are proportionately far more marginals which the Tories could capture in England and Wales than in Scotland. The Conservatives tonight are in a very strong position, and I would expect them to win anyway because of their long-term ratings. Labour is in a very weak position.
Very excited now. Booked the 7th May off work so can stay up all night and watch it.
The paradox to my view that this site is great, is that I am still none the wiser as to what is going to exactly happen, other than the Conservatives should poll some sort of lead.
Will I be able to call Mr Cameron my leader.
I do wonder where the UKIP & BNP voters are geographically in terms of seats. If they are mostly voting in Tory or Labour heartland seats, they could get quite a few percentage votes without any real impact on the GE result in terms of seats.
I’m not sure likelihood to vote is very relevant this far from an election, especially as floating voters are the main volatile ones.
@Marco
**Second, if we take Scotland out of the reckoning the Tory lead in England and Wales rises substantially**
Anthony Wells said recently that taking Scotland out of the polling figures would add about 0.4% to the Tory share.
It has gone extraordinarily quiet on here considering we have three poll results and news being broadcast that the GE is to be called for the 6th May.
Battle grounds that may yet affect the GE results and polls (though not as much as the economy) are NHS, Law & Order, Immigration, Education, on which the LibDems and Conservatives will both attack the Labour Party on, they being the incumbant have a record to defend and cannot attack their opponents on their record.
I am glad YG have decided to change their weighting method for ‘likelihood to vote’, it now brings them inline with all other major pollsters except AR who I think still do not weight their results for it. If YG had waited until during the campaign proper then their headline numbers would have seemed ‘questionable’ by the public so now was exactly the right time in my opinion to make such a change, and I congratulate them again for being transparent and up-front on their methodology.
Tom Curtis – are you actually being serious? If you are, I condemn your words in the strongest possible terms.
Spinaker – read the comments policy. If you feel you can’t abide by it, then take your comments elsewhere.
Glen – I never recall you saying ICM were biased against Labour before. Only now that they have a lead which is smaller than the others!
The rest of you, some interesting comments. At least the Tory lead hasn’t actually grown any further in the YouGov poll and there may be some cause for Labour to hope it may go down a smidgen tomorrow. For now, ICM notwithstanding, the Tories have every reason to be confident.
KEN
If you’d seen my earlier post about this you’d be aware that I was suggesting that it would be interesting if polling around issues and choices could take place. I gave an example of respondents being asked whether they would support an increase in prescription charges to £10.00 if the additional funding was used to support NHS frontline services. I see nothing partisan or off-topic about this.
Hi all
Long time reader, first time poster (I’m afraid that I wont be able to keep my partisan comments to myself, so I tend to just shut up and read! But this is all about the polls!)
I’m getting fed up (as I expect Anthony is) with people not understanding what a rogue is (and calling anything they don’t like a rouge), and I just wanted to clarify my understanding…
A rouge is where a poll falls outside the MOE (3%), and 1 in 20 polls is going to be a rouge (long term average).
So, let’s just say that the true Con support is 38% – that means we can expect polls to show anywhere from 35% to 41% (and there have only been 2 polls this year that have been outside that range!)
Let’s say the Lab support is 30% – we can expect polls to show 27-33%. In the past 2 weeks we’ve only seen 2 polls outside this.
Let’s say the Con lead is 7% (I know that doesn’t agree with the above, but I’m using the rounded figures!), we can expect polls to show anywhere from 4-10%. Again, in the last 2 weeks, only 2 polls outside this (and in opposite directions – Angus Reed showing 11% on 1st Apr and YouGov showing 2% on 24th).
Whilst it does appear to be some recent widening of the polls (following a bit of a narrowing), I’d say that all the pollsters are doing a fairly decent job, and actually showing some fairly consistent figures.
The Cons haven’t really shown any volatility in their support, Labour seem to be much more up and down.
I’m not sure why its meant to be so extraordinary or unlikely that icm have a 4% gap …when 4% was the consisent gap in yougov’s polls every day for several days up until last weekend and the post budget news coverage. Surely its the increase in the conservative lead over the past 7 days or so which can just as easily be seen as going against the general picture/trend?
Perhaps ICM are just first to detect a slipping back now that the news has moved on a bit….
“I have no written evidence about this and neither has anyone else but I have had to emailed communications from two contacts who say they have picked this up from people who work at Tory HQ. ”
And I have heard from a mate whose ex-girlfriend works at Labour HQ who told me that GB eats babies.
Oh – and a taxi driver in Iraq told MI6 that some general in the back of his cab said that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction that could be launched at the UK within 45 minutes.
I’m sure all three statements are absolutely true and we should act on them, but it’s always better to work from attributable primary sources of information (as the Iraq “war” showed).
@Tom Curtis
**People on benefits shouldn’t be allowed to vote. That would keep Labour out for good**
So you obviously don’t believe in democracy -what are you doing on a polling site then?
Keith little prospect of a UKIP pick-up. While the Tories & other parties have not yet attacked UKIP regarding the very serious slease “evidence” in the Sunday Times regarding the current UKIP leader I am sure that if UKIP picks up in the polls it will be exploited!
AW – Could you please look into DavidB’s constant posting (5 now today) about the mythical prescription charge increase. As you will be aware this will be logged by search engines like Google and multiple references like this is a classic method to try and get something virally adopted by the search engines generally, thus giving an untrue story some form of respectability on the internet.
I wish people would stop accusing Polling companies of bias.
All companies are going to get it wrong sometime, some more often than others.
Cons around 8% lead, beginings of a trend?
Lab share, all over the place.
Final result = God knows.
(For my personal opinion, I want a small Conservative majority so Gordon goes, followed by a hung Parliment for voting reform, followed by well that’s a secret…)
@Bill Roy
I suspect someone will be mischievously raising the subject of Europe too
@DAVIDB………….I just don’t understand the relevance of the mythical £10.
Can somebody explain to me what happens in terms of Whitehall support etc when an election is called. I read somewhere that somebody said Mr Brown loses certain powers/privileges.
Does the incumbent Govt lose certain powers?, not withstanding it is still in charge and would need to be in the event of emergencies etc
JACK JONES
Notwithstanding your rather unhelpful initial comments, I absolutely agree that unattributable statements need to be dealt with very cautiously. All I have ever said about the alleged Tory proposal to raise prescription charges to £10.00 is that it doesn’t seem entirely unlikely given the record of previous Tory governments in this area. Given the costs of NHS medicines retail it could even be taken as a sensible revenue raiser given the likely pressures on NHS funding although it could also be seen as a consequence of having to fill a revenue gap left by GO’s proposals to reduce the 2011 NI increase.
@DavidB,
Please stop constantly posting the same note about the prescription charges. You know very well there are no plans whatsoever for the Conservatives to increase them.
rich
Seems overall the Conservatives are maintaining the momentum gained from NI, though there will be variations in the polls and there could still be some jumping about in the weeks to come. Think myself though the Tories are unlikely to gain over 40%. Disappointing figures for Lib Dems in some polls, but they will have more publicity again soon. ICM usually show lower labour scores, so a bit strange that it’s the only recent poll giving the Government some confidence as on their shares Labour would likely have more seats. Fieldwork for the two ICM polls were actually very close.
Someone said they want small tory majority then hung for voting reform? The only way to get voting reform is to get hung parliament first time round. Tories will never go for it if there is a hun parliament.
@O richard,
not very impartial
Hmm. ICM at +4 and Opinium & YG at +10? Ok this may be rogue but you wouldn’t expect it at this stage. A cynic would say that its in these companies interest to play around with methodology to produce variant results on optimistic view that result is unpredictable and its hard to demonstrate your value / professionalism distinct from other pollsters if you’re all saying the same thing. Momentum has to be with the Tories now – its just a question of whether it will swing back or not. I still say 30 majority Conservatives – unchanged from my Dec 09 prediction.
Eoin Clarke
@O richard,
not very impartial
********************************
I don’t know what you are talking about?! Can you explain?
Simon
Blind faith is a wonderful thing!
Given that we have no recent accurate Scottish polling, what is your evidence that the Tories gain from SNP?
Yes, I know, those of us who want an evidential basis for a partisan assertion are so boring!
sorry I meant tories won’t go for voting reformif they get a majority
In terms of gaining a UK majority, Scotland’s seats are not crucial. I am not sure it makes sense to salami slice off Scotland from GB wide polls, though, as there are several marginal seats there that the Tories should take on UNS, and almost certainly won’t in reality. So the Scots portion of the national polls has an effect (by counteracting slightly – by two or three seats – gains in England that might be indicated in an England-only opinion poll).
BBC News made an interesting point just now (well I thought so), that this election will be fought even more in the public eye than before because “everyone is now a reporter”.
With mobile phones that can record off-the-record conversations and take pictures, the dumb things that our politicians may say or do can be circulated to the masses via Twitter and YouTube and perhaps influence what the media and polls pick up on, much more readily than before ?
G-20 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors April 23 Washington DC
@ Al J
‘@Tom Curtis
**People on benefits shouldn’t be allowed to vote. That would keep Labour out for good**
So you obviously don’t believe in democracy -what are you doing on a polling site then?’
That doesn’t follow at all. All democracies restrict those who can vote. Currently in our system it is under 18s, and i believe lunatics, criminals and Lords though this may have changed recently.
I happen to believe that only taxpayers should be allowed to vote. This does not mean just income tax, it could be those who pay capital gains tax or corporation etc.
@Richard O:
“Can somebody explain to me what happens in terms of Whitehall support etc when an election is called. I read somewhere that somebody said Mr Brown loses certain powers/privileges.
Does the incumbent Govt lose certain powers?, not withstanding it is still in charge and would need to be in the event of emergencies etc”
Until the prime minister resigns or there’s a vote of no confidence the existing government remains the government.
Recently the civil service issue a guide to normal procedure in the event of a hung parliament. The Government continues to act in that capacity in a care taker role till matters are settled. But it “can’t” make any major decisions that would bind its successors…obvious ones being signing treaties or declaring war. Having no written constituion though this is just a statement of an obvious convention, not a legal declaration with consequences for those who break it.
Tom Curtis – I suspect you are on the windup!
If not does that mean OAPs and the sick should not be allowed to vote? Afterall alot of them are on benefits.
However, I do suspect you are trolling!
@PeteB
**I happen to believe that only taxpayers should be allowed to vote. This does not mean just income tax, it could be those who pay capital gains tax or corporation **
Well it’s not going to happen –so you can think what you want.
“I happen to believe that only taxpayers should be allowed to vote. This does not mean just income tax, it could be those who pay capital gains tax or corporation etc.”
Oh good. So that would also include VAT. Meaning anyone who has ever bought anything at any time.
Prisoners, children and the queen will be grateful for the new rights your scheme affords them.
@ Pete B
@ Al J
‘@Tom Curtis
With the ridiculous amount of political correctness about at the moment, I wouldn’t be surprised if fruit trees could vote.
Seriously though Tom, in terms of your comments, that’s not really what a progressive deomcracy is about.
If it makes you feel better, you might find that the group you are talking about have a lower propensity to vote. This is anecodotal before anybody jumps on me!
Gattino LOL
Neil A
“In terms of gaining a UK majority, Scotland’s seats are not crucial.”
There is a logical inconsistency in your post.
If “Scotland’s seats are not crucial”, then there is an implicit assumption that Scotland is somehow different from England in deciding the composition of the English/UK Parliament. Otherwise you would have said the same of any other “region” or seat in the UK.
You seem to accept that UNS is now a redundant concept, but somehow feel that aggregating different political systems somehow overcomes that.
Polling is wholly pointless unless it is indicative of an underlying reality. There are several underlying realities in the political patterns within the UK. If you want to imagine that combining these instead of aggregating them is the most sensible approach then I say the same to you as I said to Simon -
“Blind faith is a wonderful thing!”
@Tom Cutis, abit of a unfair comment even by my past coments, if you are in work or not you have the right to vote what ever party you wish to vote.
A bit confusing the polls tonight we wil have to see what the pollsters are saying mid week once the pm anounces the election, i think we will get better story of voting intentions by then.
Pete B
What about those that pay VAT?
@Richard O
I would be grateful if you wouldn’t lump me in with the other two – I never said anything about wanting to restrict people from voting and taking away their voting rights.
Thank you.
@ALJ,
I wasn’t lumping you in, I was replying to you. I think your rather ironically backing up my point on PC…
@Richard O
@ALJ,
I wasn’t lumping you in, I was replying to you. I think your rather ironically backing up my point on PC…
—————————————————————-
Well I suppose you’d better explain yourself -where did I mention PC?
How does disagreeing with those two have anything to do with PC -you’ve completely lost me?
Oldnat,
didn’t mean to rile you old chap! In fact I probably expressed myself badly. I suspect you’d probably agree with what I was trying to say which is basically this…
It’s all very well adjusting the poll figures to exclude Scotland and thereby assuming that the Tories will do better than UNS as a result, but this ignores the fact that the political realities of Scotland mean that several Scottish “Tory target” seats are really nothing of the sort and so would have to be compensated for by additional English/Welsh gains.
I was just passing comment on the tendency of some of my English Tory comrades to think that you can just exclude Scotland from the picture and bank a larger England&Wales swing to the Tories as a result.
Neil A – Perhaps you are right about Scotland’s seats this year, however, if the election is as close as some poeple beleive then all seats are crucial are they not?
I remember the 1992 election when the tories got a majority of 21 and won 11 seats in scotland. If they had a 1997 result in 1992 the tory majority wouldn’t have been.
Not only not very good polls – but Sue & Amber aren’t here either! Even the worst polls seem better when they are commenting.
)
I suppose I should retract my “In terms of gaining a UK majority, Scotland’s seats are not crucial.” line altogether. It clearly doesn’t communicate what I meant it to communicate. And of course, Michael, you’re quite right. If one side or other gains a majority in single figures, then the seats of any part of the UK will be crucial, from Cornwall, to East London to North Wales.
I can barely contain my excitement. First item on tomorrow’s work agenda – annual leave for May 7th…
ICM 4% tory lead is inline with the TNS poll 1 April which had 5 point tory lead?
Neil A – I am with you on your last point although mine will be May 6th as I am a nightshift worker
In fact I am even watching vintage election footage on youtube! How sad is that ?
@Richard O
**With the ridiculous amount of political correctness about at the moment, I wouldn’t be surprised if fruit trees could vote. **
You should really retract your comment to me or else I shan’t take you seriously any longer.
It’s ridiculous to accuse me of being PC because I disagree with people taking the vote away from those on benefits. I thought you were more sensible than that.
He said “Son I’ve made my life out of readin’ people’s faces and knowing what their cards were by the way they held their eyes,so if you do’t mind me saying I can see you’re out of aces”.(Kenny Rogers)
It’s going to be difficult for Gordon to pass this test tomorrow @11:00. I would imagine that it is being worked on by his cronies-frantically!
What an odd GE campaign this promises to be. Normally being 10% down with 4 weeks to go would indicate a hopeless cause. But Labour will feel if they can cut the gap to 5%, they have a chance of hanging on. That being so, there’s just a few % in it.
As for the falling of the LD share, I would guess this is related to exposure. The LD’s had a post debate bounce, only to find the rest of the news week focussed on a Tory/Lab scrap over NI. Once the capaign starts in ernest, they are legally entitled to equal TV coverage, and will inevitably rise.
Tory likelihood to vote is likely to be stronger than for Labour in this election which explains the YouGov upgrade for the Tories. MORI do something similar with their polls.
Neil A
I’m non-rileable!
My real concern with polling actually relates to the clients (and the understandable compliance of the pollsters).
IF NI weren’t totally different from GB in its Westminster elections, the media would insist on their inclusion as well. They have a common interest with the UK parties in portraying elections as presidential/unitary system elections, instead of concentrating on the reality that these are Parliamentary elections.
The UK is institutionally corrupt – not just the MPs and Lords. What else explains the power of an Australian in the USA in determining voting in North Ayrshire?
Fortunately, more Scots seem ready to make a rude gesture to the media (press and TV) than seems to be the case in our southern neighbour.
Are there people seriously suggesting that the vote should be removed from those on benefit? I’m sorry, what year are we in?
Surely, it would be far better to make voting compulsory. That would ensure that the poorest in society (who are least likely to vote) have an equal say in who governs them, and may lead to politicians having to address serious underlying poverty related problems in society that are usually ignored.
YouGuv poll has it about right.
Forget the spats and let’s get down to the serious business tomorrow.
Brown calling an election must be against all of his natural inclinations, poor sod.
I won’t believe it until he’s shoehorned out of his chauffeured jag into the palace. Even then he’ll tell Liz it’s all a rumour that started in America.
@RAF
Thank you for your supportive comment –
I argued ‘against ‘ that concept of taking away votes from those on benefits -and was accused by Richard O of being PC.
Thinking about it I think he’s just shown ignorance as to what PC is -and he’s used it in the wrong context.
Still I think also he’s on a wind -up because he got his figures wrong today on public sector employee numbers lol
Guys… don’t feed the trolls….
Night all. Excitement abounds for the ‘morrow.
@Richard O
‘With the ridiculous amount of political correctness about at the moment, I wouldn’t be surprised if fruit trees could vote.’
Earth calling Richard, What a stupid statement. PC doesn’t mean keeping votes for people. What planet are you on?
@Al J
Happy to oblige
Actually I hope as many people turn out as possible (above 75% would satisfy me).
I must point out that when people are skeptical about the accuracy, and therefore validity of a pollsters result/s (previously yougov, and now ICM) It isn’t simply because it shows a figure which is negative towards their party, but more because it seems out of line with other agencies.
When yougov showed several 2 percent leads, it was (although within the MOE) out of line with the other companies.
The same with Angus Reid, serious posters of even a conservative persuasion didn’t really put their estimates up to their levels.
And now, despite all other companies, even yougov who have statistically polled lower for Labour than the others, ICM suddenly drastically drops the Conservative lead by 4 points?
It is these irregularities which calls into question the accuracy of these polls, not simply the fact that they show results we may not like.
@RAF
“That would ensure that the poorest in society (who are least likely to vote) have an equal say in who governs them, and may lead to politicians having to address serious underlying poverty related problems in society that are usually ignored.”
The last time i checked everyone is entitled to a free education, so can you please explain to me what are these underlying poverty related problems?
*Most* people living in poverty have nobody to blame but themselves – and i grew up in a deprived area!
@Tom Curtis
Sorry it will never happen G’night
Tories have a 10 point lead- passed the magic 40, I think the game is up for Labour, GB has to call the election tomorrow, the day he has dreaded for the whole time he has been PM!
Does anyone know whether compulsory voting in Australia make things easier for the Labor Party there?
@Al J
Do you believe everyone has the opportunity to do well at school? Even if they dont do well at school, we still have libraries and FE colleges.
So what excuse, other than they werent good enough, do people have not to succeed in Britain?
Someone has to fail, we need that deterent to encourage success. Its called survival of the fittest.
@Peter: Even with perfect methodology and no bias polls will vary statistically. The 95% confidence interval for share of the vote in an ideal poll with sample size N is 2*sqrt(p(1-p)/N) where p is the share of the vote recorded. For p around 30-40% this is c 3%.
There is no simple formula (that I know) for the 95% confidence interval of the CLead but its obviously higher and empirically it’s about 5%.
Taking the Weighted Moving Average of the polls gives a somewhat more reliable estimate, with a 95% confidence interval of the CLead of around 2%.
The ICM poll asked quite a few interesting questions in addition to headline voting intention.
The Guardian has some analysis & comparisons to a previous ICM/ Guardian poll.
The entire article provides much to discuss & debate on this forum. I will not repeat it all here but I hope we can discuss on this or the ICM thread later today.
The concluding paragraph amazed me – & I am hoping Anthony will comment on it – if not, I will be looking at the details myself as soon as I have time.
Here is what the Guardian analyst says:
Among current Tory supporters who say they may switch from the party before polling day (, fewer than one in 10 are thinking of backing Ukip. But almost two-thirds say they could change to Labour or the Lib Dems.
So – what is the potential switch amongst the major parties:
The proportion of Lib Dems and Conservatives saying they might vote Labour instead has doubled since ICM last asked this question earlier in the year.
The ICM figures suggest the maximum potential vote for Labour and the Conservatives – all their definite supporters, plus all potential switchers – is running neck and neck at 42%. The Lib Dem maximum is 28%.
The ICM poll, whether rogue or not, will get them loads of publicity. A very timely moment for them to have an attention grabbing result
Interesting differences in the polls.
Does anyone apart from me think that the “interest” caused by this being a potentially open election will rebound on all parties , and the percentage vote will fall overall as the public just get bored with the whole thing?
Once we get into small categories such as “CSupporters who might consider switching to UKIP” the relative MoE becomes much higher. Suppose 2% of a 1000 person sample say they are in that category. Then the theoretical MoE is 2*sqrt(0.02*0.98/1000) or roughly 1%. So all we could say with 95% confidence is that between 1% and 3% of the sample would be in this category.
Well done Al – J for holding the fort last night. You are a braver poster than me. You did well.
Good luck at the palace Gordon.
I wonder if we’ll see notable difference either way when the election is actually called?
Is there a harris metro poll out today?
I see TNS-BRMB recently went through some branding or ownshership changes, does anydoby know anything about them?
When will Populus, Ispos Mori and Comres publish/Carry out a poll,
Interesting to note that throughout this polling campaign Angus Reid has moved its share of the vote the least. That is to say it has regarded the voters choice in fairly static terms (9-13% tory lead). YG seem to record that the electorate are more open to changing their mind (1-10% tory lead). ICM have a smaller range of voter swing (4-10%) And Harris and Opinium have an even smaller range. It will be interesting to watch on which side of the polling companies range future polls fall.
Incidentally, ICM’s fieldwork was slightly earlier than YGs. I have no idea what this means but somebody out there might like to reflect upon it.
@Amber
I will write up a post shortly on hardening of party vote, and the decline of others…. suffice to say that yougov’s 72% for the big to is the biggest share we have seen for the big two this election yet…
@Eoin Clarke
Just wondering, when you refer to “this polling campaign” and “for the big two this election” above, when are you taking as the starting point?
Yariv,
we can take poster boy call me dave as the start….
you do not pay 500,000 on a poster camapign for the good of your health
@Eoin
Er… when was that?
So finally the starting gun on the official campaign and no more “phoney war”.
Using only the April polls (38.6/30.3/19.6) my upper, midpoint and lower (in terms of Tory seats) projections for ‘Day One’ are;
upper = 34 seat majority
midpoint = 13 seat majority
lower = 8 seats short
-each three product of different levels of tweaking in terms of marginal’s premiums and levels of TV.
So still all to play for though quite clearly the advantage at the beginning of the campaign-proper rests with the Conservatives.
As said by someone else above- time to clear my diary for May 7th…….
“COME ON” !!!!!
Since there was no formal announcement, that is untilt today, it is whenever you choose to, if at all, view it as such.
For me St Brigids Day is roughly when it started in earnest (1.2.10)
some might say earlier, some might say later…. largely irrelevant now that it has been called
@ALJ / Steve,
Sorry was off-line later last night. Just to confirm, if you read my note. My comments actually said that removing the vote for anybody is not what a progressive democracy is about. Maybe you misintrepreted my note somehow?
I made a small comment/joke about PC, that was seperate to this point. If it was misinterpreted I apologies.
I also made no mistake on Public Sector numbers. They are over 6.2m now?, up from 5m when Labout took power, and by over 100k during the recession. This is just a statement, not a political point.
Thats it for me today, may be on-line tonight.
bestwishes
rich
Tom Curtis
Sort it out! Suggesting that mums at home don’t deserve a vote?? Or those caring for disabled and elderly relatives/friends?? Incredulous!
I don’t think too many Tories out there would appreciate you misrepresenting them in this way – bigoted and uncompassionate to say the least – and, to be fair, not typical of the Tories’ policies/views, thankfully.
Some of the homophobic, anti single mum, anti- unemployed people, anti- public sector rants in the last few days makes the mind boggle…..
I really had no idea that those views were still out there
Is this blog about opinion polls or about politics? Thought I might see useful discussion of polling, rather that psuedo political commentary.
Testing testing – just got moderated, hoping it’s cos I mentioned a contentious name
OK, Colin – Just wanted to say that it’s comments like those shocking most of us that play right into my terror of DC. Logic tells me they aren’t representative, but bad memories tell me something else
Steve – couldn’t agree more.
@Eoin
Fair enough, personally I think the start of the year is a convenient place to start comparisons like biggest X so far, but either way it helps to be clear about the date range.
I’m sure you’ll hate me for this, but 72% isn’t quite the biggest share for the big two since the start of Feb or even March – there was a 73% on March 8th.
@Sue,
It all frankly ties into the Tory chances of winning.
People will want to feel certain that they have nothing to fear before they will grant a majority……
I wonder as we draw nearer will te absence of a Clause IV moment for Cameron become a factor…
the Daniel Hannan’s of the party have never really been brought to heel….
The Sun carried a glam photoshoot of tory women standing for election, the gendered coverage is worth noting.
The Grayling comments and the Gay times interview are other examples but it all feeds into doubt…
hague and Ashcroft is another
Frankly when you add it all up, Goerge Osborne really is their best asset…..
All we need now is for Yougov to start weighting for past vote instead of Party ID and then Anthony will actually be correct in his statement that Yougov are using the methodology that got it right in 2005 .
Yariv
“I’m sure you’ll hate me for this, but 72% isn’t quite the biggest share for the big two since the start of Feb or even March – there was a 73% on March 8th.”
But surely that was an outlier *WINK WINK*
@Yariv,
course I dont
2005 saw a 68-9% share go to the big two
2001 saw a 70-1% share go to the big two
72/73% exceeds that, as i am sure you have noted.
I happen to think that is accurate, I anticipate a swing back from smaller parties to the big two…
the Respect party for one, will not fare as well, neither will UKIP. The BNP I am not so sure, I think 1.5% nationally is a possible for them.
@MArk Senior,
on you gov’s last poll in 2005 they actually used the weighting on likliehood to vote that was in last nights poll, it helped contribute to their accuracy…..
@Mark,
read that as last poll beofre the GE in 2005
@Rich o
Please don’t assume that every public sector worker will be voting Labour. I work in the Public sector( im a nurse) and I WON’T be voting Labour and I am one of many!
What this site has taught me is that we should ignore polls in isolation and view the trend. This in mind it would seem that the Tory vote is increasing (at the mo’).
I could never understand people who think that once a trend was started (like a tory decrease) it would continue. The nature of trends are that at some point they change.
@Eoin
I expect a swing from the small parties to the big two, but the chances are that there will be a swing to the Lib Dems in the opposite direction, don’t you think?
Yariv,
Not if you take into account the exposure Nick Glegg will get in the leadership debates, although worryingly for him the last one is a full week before election day..
In 2007 som eof the polling companies Mori for example had the LAbour-Tory share over 80%
Last year post expenses it was as ow as 58% so it does swing in roundabouts…
I expect the LAbour Tory share to be at least 72%. The more unpopular a labour government is, the more I forsee this climbing.
HAving said that, I do not think they are that unpopular.
We havent exactly had chartists marching, the Bristol riots of the Great reform act or a peterloo massacre,
or a poll tax riot for that matter…
the price of petrol or permanent damage to Wayne Rooney’s foot might change all that though.
@Eoin
Eh? You’re assuming that Nick Clegg appearing in the debates is going to drive people away from the Lib Dems?
I don’t want to get into the specifics, but it seems a bit odd to assume that small parties will lose support (as in previous elections) but the Lib Dems will not gain support (as in previous elections)!
@Yariv,
Au contriare…
exposure for the LD’s increases their vote….
I think Clegg would have been better suited had the debate been the night before the polling day…. a full week gap might negate the potential benefit, although they will still get equal exposure in other respects.
@Sue
They are not representative of most tories, or at least the ones I have met.
Saying that though, at local level i have met some pretty extreme views from all 3 parties. Tories candidates who could be BNP, labour who would make Stalin look tame ( nationalization of all businesses, benifit fixed at 80% of average wage and maximum wage of 20% above average wage ?!? ) and liberals who were the ultimate extreme of liberalism ( abolish prisons ?!? ).
All extrematies of all parties are as bad.
On the polls,
these 3 are very interesting indeed, shows the whole thing could go either way.
Does anyone know why our liberal canvesers would knock on every door in our street but mine ?
@ Eoin – people don’t “grant a majority” in the way you suggest. Neither – as some others have suggested in the past – do people “vote for a hung parliament”. Most voters will simply vote for the party they regard as the lesser of two evils. That may or may not result in a majority or a hung parliament – there’s really no way of knowing for sure until the results are in.
@James,
Please forgive me, I do not get hung up on the nuances of discourse analysis
Eoin , yes Yougov’s last poll in 2005 included likelihood to vote , ALL the Yougov polls in 2005 including the last poll had past vote weighting NONE of them had weighting by Party ID .
I suspect the 41% of the Tories and 31% of Labour have been pushed up slightly in the Yougov polls because of the inactivity of the Lib Dems in the news this week. I would expect both party’s share of the vote to fall accordingly once the Lib Dems re-enter any political news/debates.
@ Eoin – I’d noticed!
Sky news are already running predictions about seats looking at the various polls.
Personally I think the polls are currently not worth looking at. The Lib Dems vote is under valued.
My predictions is that come this time next week, Labour and the Tories will be in the mid 30’s and Lib Dems 21%.
There is also the issue of tactical voting due to various factors.
“Saying that though, at local level i have met some pretty extreme views from all 3 parties. Tories candidates who could be BNP, labour who would make Stalin look tame ( nationalization of all businesses, benifit fixed at 80% of average wage and maximum wage of 20% above average wage ?!? ) and liberals who were the ultimate extreme of liberalism ( abolish prisons ?!? ).
All extrematies of all parties are as bad.”
That’s why I think it’s in the best interests of this country to have a political cycle, whereby the Tories and Labour take it in turns to seize power. I think it leads to an unhealthy democracy when one party rules for too long (i.e. more than 15 years). The appointment of a Tory government would re-balance the more extreme leftist policies of Labour so that they are shifted to the right and, therefore, occupy centre ground. The same will go for the Tories if they manage 13 years or so of power.
I think we need a nice balance of right-wing and socialist socialist (left-wing) policies in this country. Allowing both parties their chance to seize but never own power should make it more likely for us to achieve this.
@James,
Collectively the electorate can be referred to as “the people”. There are two ways of measuring a “majority”.
It is on the onbe hand a popular mandate, and on the other the majority of seats.
Under FPTP 25.000001% of those that vote is enough to gain a majority, in the second manner described.
Lets be explicit about it, if a party follows the rules to the letter the claim claim a mandate for thier manifesto in this manner.
Thus, we can say the public granted them a majority.
Now if I assumed that you took that for granted, then I am sorry. Now that I have talked you through it, you will note that the public can grant a majority, provided that 25.00001% of those that vote agree.
That 25% works out at about 15% of those eligible to vote to be precise.
Even under a proportional system such as AV, which is proposed, 15% of the electorate is enough to gain one a majority, theoretically and provided votes are evenly distributed accross the constituencies.
I feed all poll figures into a spreadsheet, as some other posters do. Nothing added, nothing taken away. The software has no political allegiance and takes a rolling average of the ten most recent polls. The rolling average Tory lead started the year at 10.8 and in recent weeks has varied between 5.0 and 8.2. The long term trend shows a steady narrowing of the gap. The current short term trend shows a widening but still within MoE. It is too early for the trolls to get excited. Tories need a steady run of double figure average leads before anyone can say its all over. Lab needs the average to drop below 5. We are in tantalising middle ground.
I agree with Matt that very long terms of office are unhealthy, irrespective of which party is in power.
They foster complacency, self-satisfaction and a certain arrogant, unpsoken belief in the right to govern.
I would dearly like to see the introduction of the US system, which prevents an individual from serving more than two consecutive terms as head of government. And fixed term parliaments too.
@ Eoin – Yes, thank you for the sixth-former lesson in what “majority” means in our system. But I was taking issue with your strange comment below:
“People will want to feel certain that they have nothing to fear before they will grant a majority……”
This doesn’t really make any sense because you are conflating possible individual feelings with a collective outcome.
Moreover, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find any voter at all who didn’t feel that he/she had something to fear from every party on offer.
@Cozmo: The “trend” since the beginning of the year has only got an R-squared of 0.41 and really does not look significant either.
The only trends in the Weighted Moving Average that appear to be significant are:
a. A fall in the CLead from 11% to 6% during the month of Feb (R2=0.73)
b. A rise in the CLead from 5% to 9% over the last 2 weeks (R2=0.75)
How do you do your rolling average. Is it just an unweighted average of the last 10 polls? If so it will be lagging changes in opinion rather heavily. But diversity is good.
@ R Huckle
How on earth do you arrive at ‘Labour & Tories will be in the mid 30s by the middle of next week and LDs on 21%’ ?
What makes you think that and who have all the % gone to?
I meant ‘unspoken’ of course!
Sorry I should have said Good Morning to you all first but I was just puzzled at R Huckles post!!
I could perhaps go along with the LDs being on 21% which is more than likely possible but to say the two Big parties would both be in the mid 30s in just one week sounds a bit odd to me!
Anyway – today is the beginning of the REAL election campaign and I guess it is going to be really dirty unfortunately.
Eoin Clarke @ 8:25 am
“For me St Brigids Day is roughly when it started in earnest (1.2.10)”
Fair point, but today will surely be remembered as St. Elstan’s day, after the late Bishop of Winchester, “celebrated as a model of blind obedience” as catholic.org puts it.
@James,
We that is not what you said in your first post… perhaps that was an inadvertant oversight.
I have stated before that Brown ‘the iron chancellor’ was unproven and feared before 1997. Others will recall that I stated it is very hard for the like sof Osborne to allay those fears before he has had a term in office.
Hence it is not incorrect for me to say that voters will place increased impoartnace on what the Tories say…
The populace cannot judge them on what they have done… that is unless you want them to vote on the basis of the Thatcher years….
Regarding homophobia etc… if you referred to earlier posts I have pointed out that Cameron has led the way in deselecting Ulster Unionist candidates who expressed the same views as Grayling…
In short, my point could have re-stated all of these points again but had I done so it would have been a rather long post….
You should engage with posts in the spirit in which they are posted, or if indeed you wish to criticise, be more specific
@Brownedov,
That made me laugh
blind…… it is true you know- you do go blind…. best not to even try
@NBEALE
Thanks for your input. It is an unweighted average. Given the MoE I don’t look for precision and I don’t worry about it lagging behind because we get 9 or 10 polls most weeks, so in effect it gives a weekly snapshot which is reasonably fresh. Dunno why I bother to tap the keys though as it is just as easy to look at the ‘All’ graph in the sidebar of this wesbite to get a fair picture.
ICM and Yougov are telling much the same story, at present.
There have been three ICM polls, and six Yougov polls over the past week.
Averaging them gives Con 38%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 21% with ICM and Con 39%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 19% with Yougov.
So a clear, but not overwhelming, Conservative lead.
@ BROWNDOV
“today will surely be remembered as St. Elstan’s day, after the late Bishop of Winchester, “celebrated as a model of blind obedience” as catholic.org puts it.”
If the events & revelations of the past months have taught us anything at all, it is that “blind obedience” is demanded for one reason, and one reason only-whether you are a priest or a politician.
I am sure that the British people will be “celebrating” the very antithesis of blind obedience this morning-freedom of choice.
@ JAMES LUDLOW
“This doesn’t really make any sense because you are conflating possible individual feelings with a collective outcome.”
Quite correct-obviously.
@Colin,
Welcome back, I missed your posts I feel I must admit
Well thank goodness he is calling it -at last.
Now we can choose.
It’s a lovely sunny morning, with spring and hope in the air-off out into it with my grandchildren.
COLIN @ 10:23 am
“I am sure that the British people will be “celebrating” the very antithesis of blind obedience this morning-freedom of choice.”
Freedom of choice, certainly, but sad that whatever the outcome, the 1872 plurality voting system will ensure that the next parliament does not represent the will of the people.
Morning all.
Glad the speculation is all over. It has been 99.9% certain for ages that the election campaign proper would start today and that election day would be May 6th, so it’s good that that final 0.1% has finally been dispelled.
Regarding the latest YouGov figures: 41% for the Tories seems high but not startlingly so. 31% for Labour seems just about fair to middling. But 18% for LD is very low. They have always manged to push their figure up somewhat in the run-up to past elections and they certainly will need to from here. They (and anyone who would prefer not to have a Tory majority government) will hope to get to at least 21-2%.
Sorry I should have said Good Morning to you all first but I was just puzzled at R Huckles post!!
I could perhaps go along with the LDs being on 21% which is more than likely possible but to say the two Big parties would both be in the mid 30s in just one week sounds a bit odd to me!
Anyway – today is the beginning of the REAL election campaign and I guess it is going to be really dirty unfortunately.
The tables for Cello MRUK’s football questions in their March Scottish Omnibus are now available here, confirming the numbers published in the Sunday Thunderer:
17% Support England
17% Support another team
28% Support anyone but England
38% Don’t know/won’t say/don’t care
The polls up to now have been essentially hypothetical – who would you vote for in the event of a hypothetical general election? From now on the polls will be picking up real voting intention and the undecideds will come under increasing pressure to make their minds up.
It will be fascinating to see how the immediate post-announcement polls compare to the most recent pre-announcement polls. I’m guessing YouGov and ICM both back to 7-8% as wavering Labour voters firm up. I also expect little or no change to those figures throughout the entire campaign. Only time will tell if I’m right of course.
Leslie narrowing polls following announcement
Those were my feelings too but no one less than Bob Worcester told us on here last night that the polls will not vary between now and the election more than 3 points for each party. I did not think that was a very ‘brave’ prediction and of course the polls taken, say, tomorrow could produce the narrowing you are predicting, in which case Bob’s evidence would be easier to justify anyway, from that point.
One thing is almost certain, the Tories can’t win now, barring an extraordinary event. They could be the largest party on 40, which most of their supporters here think is their maximum but that’s their limit and for them not to realise a hellish period in ‘power’ they need at least 41 and Labour to drift downwards badly to 29 or below. Again, a catastrophic campaign for Labour would be needed for that.
Last night’s You Gov will have given temporary succour to those Tory thoughts but we would need 3 like that on the trot for the thought to become a reality.
@Howard,
Could not agree more…
I also see an inevitable tightening
36 tory 34 labour 22 liberal
One thing is almost certain, the Tories can’t win now, barring an extraordinary event”
That’s a remarkably bold prediction, given post-Budget polling. Most polls are pointing to a Tory win.
Why do you think that?
@Sean,
Your 8% might prove correct, but inevitable tightening is sure to commence now…
Big decisions have a polarising effect. This is the biggest decision for at least 20 years.
The desire by neutrals for a “big occasion” a Evander Holyfield v Tyson is sure to see the polls narrow.
Brown is not hated to the extent some imagine, and issue polling show that certainly brand Labour is not as tarnished as the Tory brand was in 1997.
Add to that the mathmatically tough posiiton that the Tories commence from, and I think you have a close contest.
Of course, I completely accept that it is as entirely possible that Cameron could hold on to his WMA (8%) lead and capture a spring mood for renewal/change, which could see Labour ejected.
The scrutiny about to be inflcted upon the Tories will be nothing like we have seen since Kinnock was dragged through the mire……
Eoin,
Well, it may happen as you suggest, although it’s unusual for a general election campaign to have much overall effect on the outcome (switchers between parties tend to cancel each other out), but to argue that it’s “almost impossible” for the Conservatives to win, in the face of current polls is highly optimistic, I think.
Sean,
Never before have there been so many undecided voters,
Never before have there been televised debates,
but our right to say Howard’s prouncement was on the optimistic side…….
@Eoin
“Could not agree more…
I also see an inevitable tightening
36 tory 34 labour 22 liberal”
Whilst my heart could not wish for anyhting other than this as a labour floor my head is saying 8-10% may well remain the lead the whole way through the campaign: but that 39-41% is the Conservative ceiling.
However until Sunday/ Monday next we won’t know how the fact that- as someone else said- people are being asked ‘how will you vote in the GE on May 6th’ (rather than hypotheticalyl) has actually impacted upon the numbers.
Anthony- is it likely that we will also see other daily trackers as well as YG; or will there simply be more regular but not daily trackers from the other companies?
Just wondering what youre picking up as you are in the business etc.
I had a dream about it last night and for some strange reason i’m really starting to believe it now…I think there will be a big shock and that it will be pretty much a Tory landslide…..
Not based on the polls I know..sorry, which really are all over the place now….I’m just starting to get that feeling now
I saw two White Doves fly into the Sunset last night -this is a sign that Labour will win.
I don’t know why but I’m really beginning to believe it
@ AL J
The ICM poll was full of good news for Labour if the Guardian’s analysis is to be believed.
I agree with Howard & Éoin, it will be extremely difficult for the Tories to win a working majority based on any of the current polls, but especially if ICM has less “error” than the others.
There are reasons to be cheerful
This was all getting a bit boring, but along comes landslides, white doves flying into the sunset and its only day one. What other things will we come across over the next few weeks – time will tell. I looking forward to the burning bush and perhaps a plague or two.
Getting back to polling and polls, I would love to see the following polls very soon:
- Marginal seats
- Scottish seats
- % support of small parties (especially the racist party and UKIP in seats where their votes may decide the outcome by reducing one of the big two parties)
- Ministers seats (purely for entertainment purposes though – some were looking rather glum when they came out for the photo-shoot outside No. 10 this morning)
Unfortunately I am no multi-millionaire so cannot pay for these polls myself, but that cannot stop me wishing for them!
@Amber
Thank you. ICM has cheered me up and it’s good to have the analysis by yourself, Howard & Éoin. I do agree -and think the polls will close.
I’m anxiously awaiting tonights YG – still predicting it to show a tightening this week.
I wonder if you have Sky News -they have constant polling figures on their screen 24/7- including an average. Seems I’ll be looking at that for 4 weeks.
@ AL J
I also am wondering when there will be another marginals poll. I think it may deliver a surprise. Labour campaigners & foot soldiers are working really hard. They desperately want to win this one & I think that will make a difference.
LDs tactics seem positively designed to get them nowhere. If the nation cottons on to Labours narrative that posh boy Cameron would be a disaster and the LDs encourage the country in this then votes will swing from LDs to Lab.
How is encouraging this good for the LDs? The more they attack the Tories the more they will encourage people to vote labour to keep the Tories out. What happened in 97 will not happen again – then the Tories were in govt and people would vote in a way to keep them out.
LDs should be ignoring the Tories and attacking Labour and getting their vote. That way they can make a breakthrough. How do you make a breakthrough by attacking the party on 41? Surely they should be attacking the party on 31 and replacing them?
In the seat of Crawley, the BNP polled 3% in 2005. The labour majority there is tuppence. I think the % share of the BNP’s vote there could well decide that seat. I guess, in any event it is likely to fall to he Tories although Sue did report that the incumbent MP came out of the expenses scandal unscathed.
Having said that, due to worklife balance and family committements she is standing down. I wonder where that leaves this seat?
It cited it simply to illustrate where BNP share really can make a difference.
@Richard O
I made a small comment/joke about PC, that was seperate to this point. If it was misinterpreted I apologies.
——————————————————————-
Can you stop making silly comments and then trying to pass them off as a ‘joke’ when you are challenged?
You did get your figures wrong.
Al J
“I saw two White Doves fly into the Sunset last night”
So you are actually divining that anti-war parties (like mine) will disappear – leaving UK politics to the war mongers of Lab/Con.
@ BILL ROY
Labour cabinet ministers who will have to make an effort if they want to keep their seats:
1. Alastair Darling
2. Jim Murphy
3. Ben Bradshaw
It would take some co-ordinated tactical voting by LD & CON to put Darling &/or Murphy under any real threat up here in Scotland.
You are unlikely to be enjoying many ‘Michael Portillo’ moments, I’m happy to say
@Amber
Anthony said there will be polling in ‘marginals’ each week until the election, starting this week – if I remember correctly. I don’t know which pollster it is -but it will be fascinating. I agree our people are working so hard -good on them.
@Oldnat,
did we see you on telly?
SNP has a poll on its website…. it would be a bonny shock if it ever materialised…
My computer was ‘engaged’ for an hour so to answer Sean, I agree with Eoin. I did not suggest that the Tories will not ‘win’ the election – I keep having to put these expressions in quotes – it’s just that I was following on from Leslie’s ‘tightening’ prediction. If on the 9th we are still seeing 41 or 42 from YouGov (say three times in a row) and Labour down to 29 then I think Polly Ticks dreams may come true but it just seems counter -intuitive unless Labour has a disastrous campaign.
Bob W was talking about a 38 30 20 poll position IIRC
which gives a Tory marginal victory a possibility but he also stated that this could be 3 points either way for *each* come the GE and we are not yet 1 month from the GE. We will be in 3 days time. So my point is I hope clear and my reasoning. There is not an ounce of wishful thinking or white doves, white smoke or any supernatural side to this.
Tonight’s poll should be interesting but tomorrows more so, Now that the election has been called the “who will you vote for” question will be more real to people and I think we will see the figures going back to 37/33/20. Then the real battle will begin…
@Oldnatt
My little joke was in reply to Polly Ticks & her dream
I’m not very good with bird signs really
But yes I do see Doves as birds of Peace
wow! 42k polling stations just mentioned on BBC News.
Sorry -Oldnat
Eoin Clarke
The Sunday Post was a voodoo poll, of course, but I wasn’t that surprised by it.
It’s readership is primarily older people who are consciously Scots – exactly the group that the SNP has strong support within. One of the reasons that I think Angus is secure for the SNP.
Interestingly, I’m hearing reports that in Dundee, Labour seem to be concentrating on saving Dundee West, instead of attacking Stewart Hosie’s small majority in Dundee East.
Al J
I understood your little joke, and its context.
My little joke was similar.
@Oldnat,
That is striking I had labour to take them both
what do you think of the couple of sears where your closest rivals are the Tories, I know that your lead is fairly decent in those constituencies but we have heard anectoes of a collapse in SNP support
Trevorsden – “LDs should be ignoring the Tories and attacking Labour and getting their vote. That way they can make a breakthrough.”
I’ve made several posts on other threads recently arguing that it is in the LDs interest to attack the Cons and ’support’ Lab. Why? because LDs want a hung Parliament so that electoral reform can be implemented. Furthermore, Lab are committed to a refrendum on AV.
I expect Clegg and the LDs will step up their attacks on the Cons and show more support to Lab in the coming weeks.
Mike N,
The only chance the Lib Dems have of getting PR is if both big parties finish around the 275 seats mark, and they can put either of them into power. Even then, neither party may play ball (some of their MPs would be voting themselves out of a job, after all)
Once a party gets to 290 or so, it should be able to form a minority administration
The risk for the Lib Dems is that their supporters are far more evenly divided in their views about the other two than they were in 2005. Overt support for either Conservatives or Labour risks alienating some of their supporters.
Were I a Lib Dem strategist my concern would be to maximise seat numbers (and gains are more likely to be from Labour than from the Conservatives) without being over-concerned about a hung Parliament.
.
Eoin,
Your faith has certainly firmed in the time you have been posting on this site – but are you sure you have understood the regional differences and implications thereof in both the electoral arithmetic and the indications from the polls ?
The “electoral bias” on which so many Labour hopes are founded is not a “given” built into the boundaries. It is a consequence of severe differential turnout, not just in 2005, but in 2001 and even 1997.
Rather than focus on poll percentages, perhaps you should look more closely at actual numbers of votes. In 2005 these were:
England: Lab 8.1m; Con 8.1m; LD 5.2m
Scotland: Lab 0.9m; Con 0.4m; LD 0.5m
Wales: Lab 0.6m; Con 0.3m; LD 0.3m
The average number of votes required to elect a Lab MP in 2005 (26.9k) was much lower than for a Con MP (44.4k), but this was primarily because so many Lab MPs were elected in seats with not just a lower electorate (partly dealt with by new boundaries) but also, and more importantly, a lower average turnout. Conversely, in many of the marginal seats, whether held by Lab or Con, both electorate and turnout were higher. If you have any doubts on this score may I refer you to papers produced by the HoC Library. In 2005 turnout was clearly lowest in the regions where Lab are traditional strongest, and highest in the areas where Lab are weakest (highest regional turnout was 66.5% in SW England which is primarily a Con/LD battlefield, while lowest were 57.3% & 57.4% in NW & NE England) . Another way of looking at it is the difference in turnout between Borough and County seats – 57.7% vs 64.2%.
To reinforce the point: it took just 22.7k votes to elect a Lab MP vs 369.4k for 1 Con MP in Scotland, and a mere 20.5k vs 99.3k in Wales. When England alone is considered: Lab 28.2k vs Con 41.8k; the bias is far less pronounced.
I am fairly confident that there will be significantly higher turnout at this election. Not just well above the abysmal levels seen in 2001 and 2005, but even higher than the 71.4% of 1997 (which was in any case a record low since 1935). While 80% may be too much to hope for, I see no reason why turnout should not approach, or even exceed, 75%.
It is often said that higher turnout helps Labour. This has been true in local elections – with Labour suffering badly from low polls. But the history for Westminster, while mixed, tends to show a quite different picture:- the highest turnouts were in the 1950s when we had a succession of Con governments, but Blair’s second landslide in 2001 was built on the lowest turnout ever.
Much of the focus of recent Lab announcements / campaigns has been to firm up the resolve of their traditional support. This may well help Labour to increase its vote in its heartlands – thereby preserving these seats from LD threats. But this approach does not necessarily appeal to floating / swing voters in marginals. It is certainly the case that Labour will struggle in England outside the Metropolitan areas, yet this is where there are sufficient Lab held marginals to ensure that Brown is ejected from Downing St.
This year, I believe that Lab will struggle to remain above 9m votes in total – a decline of 0.5m or 95% of their vote compared to 2005, especially as no poll in the past year has shown them above the actual result achieved in 2005. The Con vote on the other hand is likely to rise significantly, probably over the 10m mark (which would still be below the actual Con vote in every GE from 1950 to 1992) and perhaps higher. Most (but not all) of that increase will be in England – where it will deliver scores of seats from Lab to Con.
Its a difficult one for the Lib dems and they may try to be all things to all men….
If they attack the cons and leave lab alone they risk been seen as supporting the status que and possibly lumped in with labour.
Now in the NE say, no problem. In the SW that would present them with a problem and they could end up losing some seats.
AV is not something that the few liberals I’ve spoken to support, they don’t see it helps them enough to be worth it. I can’t see either labour or tories going for full PR, unless maybe if Scotland went independent them maybe they would but for different reasons.
Sean Fear – your observations may well be correct. But, the LDs prime aim is electoral reform which may/probably lead to a significant increase in the number of LD MPs.
This GE represents a big opportunity for the LDs.
I don’t see them passing it up. But I could be completely wrong.
Treversden – I would agree that the LibDems have ‘again’ made the tactical error of seeing Conservative voters as the people to win over. It would seem that many Labour supporters on the right/center of the party are more likely to be won over by LibDem policies than Conservatives are to be won over.
Eoin – yes this is exactly the kind of situation where the racist party or UKIP could actually influence the outcome of the General Election though they not win a single seat.
Amber – I like the way you use the word ‘many’.
Just as the mythical 40% supposed barrier existed in many peoples arguments so does this inevitable belief that the polls will naturally tighten myth exist. Just like the results last night showed the 40% barrier to be a myth it would seem from recent run of polls it would actually look as though the polls are widening than contracting the lead, hence exploding the myth of the inevitability of polls tightening.
Labour could well start picking up votes from the LibDems, something I will have to factor into my scenario should the LibDems continue to run against the Conservatives as against targeting Labour. I doubt though that this would be more than a 1% or 2% pick-up.
The Conservatives from here on in have to stay on target, their attacks lined up against the record of the Labour Government will probably result in them picking up 2% -4% in the polls according to my reckoning.
Labour have the difficulty now of being the incumbant, every action they have done will be under scrutiny, and this will make it hard for them to pick-up votes. Instead they will, as as already been shown, try and use scare tactics, something that has a proven record of working but needs to be timed right for it to have a positive affect at the ballot box. It would seem that again whoever is actually running the Labour campaign has therefore mistimed the use of this tactic, it has been used way too early and also used whilst Labour is on the back foot therefore it could appear to be nothing more than electioneering (which of course it is anyway – but all parties use electioneering during elections).
Now though Labours’ biggest headache in the current poll situation is Labour supporter apathy (if the situation was reversed then it would be Conservative supporter apathy). This apathy is not to be confused with ‘likelihood to vote’. This apathy occurs where supporters (voters) see no point in voting their side is not going to win anyway. This is a non-partisan comment as it would affect any party in the situation Labour is currently in. It is seen with football clubs with their supporters, when doing well supporters make an effort to go and watch ‘their team’, when doing badly the gates fall as people find other things to do rather than go and watch ‘their team’. It is unfortunate that I know of no real way of measuring this but all my ‘instincts and experience’ tell me that it occurs (and yes I realise this will be jumped on as anecdotal evidence).
Sean and Trevor
Good job you are not LD strategists! Of course your ‘advice’ will be ignored. I was delivered my leaflets this morning and they attack the Tory threat remorselessly. Our Labour squeeze leaflets were also delivered and they offer the olive branch to their supporters. We will hopefully do exactly send exactly the appropriate messages in Lab /Con marginals and Lib Dem / Lab marginals. To do anything else would be potty.
Tory leaflets will doubtless send similar whistles, dog or otherwise, to their marginal constituencies. For minimally 400 out of the 635 they could all print the telephone book.
Its ABTT time for LD’s and Lab and TFC for Tories. They should cancel each other out I suspect!
Eoin Clarke
I don’t know where you got those anecdotes.
The SNP has certainly lost support in the polls since the “high water mark” of May/June 2009. However, current polling suggests that they will gain significantly more votes than in 2005, though probably less than in 2007.
Seat prediction in Scotland is extremely difficult, however, as tactical voting is well established here, and the recognition that UK elections are on different issues from Scottish elections.
For example, Galloway has a high proportion of SNP voters (they had an SNP MP in 1974), and pushed the Tories very close in the Scottish constituency election in 2007. However, in 2005 many voted tactically for Labour to keep the Tories out – remember that in 2005, all Scots constituencies were on the new borders, and it wasn’t clear in many seats, what the balance of support would be. What will happen in a month’s time? Who knows!
@AMBER STAR
I have commented before that your rose coloured specs are set in tartan frames. You are either a person in denial (which I doubt) or your judgement is far to affected by living in a country that likes the Labour Party and left of centre policies.
I can assure you that English Tories are just as determined that Labour is ousted as Scots are keen they remain.
To take hope from ICM is your perogative, but the reality is that the average of the 9 polls from March 22nd to yesterday the Tories held an 8.5 % lead. The 3 yesterday averaged 7.5 % lead.
With a small push in the marginals in England and Wales the Tories are home. Note I do not diss ICM or any other pollster, I merely state facts. All these daft comments like “the Tories can’t win now” are just plain daft and will not “magic” a hung parliament.
I think the LibDems will do what they always have done during election campaigns: talk up their national message as loud as possible and attack both leading parties on each bit of policy as they see fit, whilst fighting as hard as possible locally against the more dominant rival. Any talk that the LDs should side with one or the other during the campaign is moot – they will do neither.
Howard – my brain hurts…what does ABTT and TFC mean please?
As a further thought, my wife and I just agreed that had we moved 6 miles down the road when we repatriated, we would not be in the slightest way involved in this and probably I would not be writing this post. I suppose if some of us are sufficiently motivated we might target our efforts, but I doubt it in our case. Illogical but there you are. If you live in a no-hoper, are you targeting out of interest?
Do you realy think campaigning makes that much difference to youir local poll? We need a poll on that!
Howard,
Have you considered that some potential Lib Dem voters want to get Labour out, rather than being concerned to keep the Conservatives out at all costs?
Attacking the Conservatives (whose votes you presumably need) “remorsely” in Labour/Lib Dem marginals doesn’t seem to be the most obviously productive strategy.
On blogs like this, I try to be as objective as possible. As it happens, I had lunch yesterday with three fairly prominent Lib Dem activists, and I’m reflecting their views.
Mike N
Anything but the Tories and Time for change
@Paul (cant remember the initials afterwards)
Out of the last 577 polls the average in the Tory vote is just shy of 39 %.
Recently in has moved much closer to 37%.
Thus, quantitatively analysing these set of results we can confirm one fact.
The Tory share of the vote is declining.
contrive, contextualise, or dismiss how you see fit, but that is an historical fact.
Now my prediciton is that this will come down by 1% further.
Lets be clear, I am not predicting the second coming or the first if your jewish, I am saying that I think 1% of the tory share of the vote will go…
Over the last 577 polls, the Labour share has been 31%.
I predict that it will climb, by how much it is hard to say but several polling companies had them on 33/34. In fact , You Gov have had Labour on 35% recently.
I do not think they will reach 35%, ithink they will be 1 short of that.
Lastly Paul, before you make snide innuendos go back and look at my reaction to Angus Reid’s 13% or YouGov’s 10%.
I have only ever dismissed two polls……… BPIX 2% and YG 2%
Bill Roy: under current circumstances, it is beneficial for the LibDems to attack the Tories. In Lab/LibDem marginals (5 of the top ten LibDem targets), swing voters are fed up of Gordon Brown, but want to be sure they’re not voting for Tories in disguise. In Con/LibDem marginals, LibDems are pitching for anti-Tory voters & aiming to squeeze the small Labour vote.
For the LibDems, there is 2 possible ways of “winning” the GE: a hung Parliament or alternatively a rout for Labour with the LibDems looking a credible alternative to Labour (especially if Labour tears itself apart in the aftermath). Recent polls disappointingly suggest neither is likely, but there’s a long way to go.
LOL@EOIN CLRKE
so you think the same number of people will vote for Labour this election as voted for them in the last one???
The word deluded springs to mind
@Dan,
god love you…..
Go back and check the 2005 results.
Dan,
Éoin will speak for himself, but I personally think that around the same number of people will vote for Labour this time as did in 2005. Some will go away because of disaffection with Brown, the TFC factor etc, but many will also come back who didn’t vote for Blair in 2005.
@Dan
I hadn’t thought that through, a possible outcome is labour lose, say cons get a 20- 40 seat majority, enoguh to get them through.
Then labour begin the recrimantions and maybe tear themselves in to 2 parties, right or left. Or even lurch too far left and make themselves unelectable….
Now both of those would be mana from heaven to LDs.
Sean
Re-read my post – i did not suggest that. If your three Lib Dem’s live in a Lab /Lib Dem marginal then they will target Labour by sending anti Tory messages to those voters but they will still be careful to send rightish but caring targeted messages to soft Tories.
This is surely kid’s stuff? If activists don’t understand FPTP tactics then better they stay inactive.
That’s why I found Polly Ticks’ posts strange as a ‘floater’. Without knowing in which seat she lives, I cannot understand how anyone could be in any doubt as to what they should do. If it’s a safe seat, then do what rich people do and ’sell in May and go away’. In fact go now and avoid all the endless claptrap on TV and this post.
Eoin,
We’ve had a lot of recent polls showing the Conservatives above 37%. Of course, they may decline, during the course of the campaign, but it’s not really a given.
To be clear to anyone who takes Dan’s slight as my thoughts…
I predict a 2-2.5% decline in Labour support,
I predict a 3-3.5% rise in Tory support…..
first time voters will ensure the Tory majority are denied a majority…
@ OLD NAT
Interestingly, I’m hearing reports that in Dundee, Labour seem to be concentrating on saving Dundee West, instead of attacking Stewart Hosie’s small majority in Dundee East.
—————————————————–
I’m hearing the same about Edinburgh South. Personally, I’d rather the LD got it than a split leftie vote giving CON a seat.
@Sean,
of course you are right but I am sure you know that my opinion simply counts for one in sixty million.
The epic nature of this contest will make it close….
Howard,
sending out two separate messages in the same constituency is a recipe for confusion, not victory.
In fact, in somewhere like Blaydon, it’s quite straightforward if you’re a Lib Dem. You attack Labour relentlessly, while telling the remaining Tory voters that only your candidate can beat Labour in this seat.
That keeps your voters from 2005 on board, picks up ex-Labour voters who want to switch, and puts the squeeze on the remaining Tory vote.
Sean
See -Amber understands FPTP – see her post on Edinburgh South.
Sean
Sounds good, you clearly understand FPTP perfectly -so you also undretsand it’s just where you live that matters. I must have a look at Blaydon on AW’s map.
Paul’s point on turnout is a good one. I will not re-hash my earlier posts on turnout but ‘epic’ contests raise turnout….
see 1979
see 1992
see 1997
There will be a large swath of the youth vote who will be voting for the first time…. expect the LD and LAB to pick up a fair chunk of them…
Old people always vote, so their is little room for Tory gain here…
@ ROLAND HAINES
Fair comment – of course my preference is for ICM to be closest to the truth – but that doesn’t make it so.
I am Scottish but I keep an ear to the ground in England. My mother & two of my brothers live ‘South of the border’.
Sean Fear, Howard
Lib Dems will pragmatically attack Labour or the Conservatives locally, whichever is to their advantage. Nationally, they will attack whoever looks like they might win, in order to maximise chances of a hung parliament, which is their best possible outcome for any election.
They will inevitably be squeezed nationally, but will do well locally in seats they already hold (the limited polling we have in Tory/LibDem marginals sees to back this up).
The real test will come after the election if the parliament is hung. There are Lib Dems who sway left, and those who sway right.
However, if they want to avoid perpetual opposition, they really do need electoral reform. My guess is that they would support Labour (though perhaps not in formal coalition) provided they could get STV or similar onto the referendum ballot paper.
Roland – I live in West Sussex – where does that leave your rose tinted specs theory
Interesting that the Guardian have ditched their ICM poll and are showing the Opinium poll from the Express on their Election page.
@EOIN CLARKE
If youth bothers its arse to vote you might have a point. However oldies will bother their arse to vote and in that group the Tories have a 22% lead. You are whistling in the dark Eoin.
Amber Star
I suspect that there will be a lot of targetting by all parties in Scotland!
Having the data from the new Westminster seats in 2005, and the SP elections in 2007 – especially the polling station voting figures from 2007!, allows much closer seat by seat analysis here than can happen in England with their new boundaries and notional 2005 voting.
I presume we are agreed that UNS is fairly meaningless in Scotland with different 2 party fights in different areas and some interesting 3 and 4 way contests?
Derek P – I live in a LibDem/Conservative marginal – Westmorland & Lonsdale up here in Cumbria, the LibDem lead in 2005 was only 835 (0.9% swing required).
I hope people did not misunderstand my last post, I was NOT saying that the Liberal Democrats should side with one or other of the other parties, I was expressing the fact that the LibDems should attack Labour where they would win more votes from previously voting Labour supporters than they would from previous voting Conservative supporters by attacking the Conservatives.
Of course the danger for the LibDems is that the public might see voting LibDem is a vote for keeping Brown in power – that would be disasterous for the LibDems and could well have contributed to their low poll rating – ‘guilt by possible association’ I would term this.
Those predicting a tightening in tonights YG poll (which may or may not occur) should remember that YG have now amended their methodology. For those that which to use the previous YG results prior to last night and project forward from them or compare them with YG results from last night onwards please remember that for a comparrison to made as accurately as possible it will be necessary to ‘adjust’ previous YG results. The difference will not be huge but a possible widening of the Conservative lead of 1% would be expected in each of the old methodological YG polls.
@Howard,
I take it, as official LD spokesman on UKPR, that in agreeing with Amber’s post about Edinburgh you accept that the LDs are a “Leftie” party?
That will be great news for my Tory activist colleagues campaigning in Newton Abbott, Torbay and North Devon!
@SUE MARSH
It leaves it perfectly in tact. As a West Sussex person you know full well that Labour are going to loose this GE. They may hang on in the gay capital of England, I really dont know, but overall they will be beaten. I think you know that as well. Amber, gives the impression that Labour could win, well they will in Scotland, but not where it counts.
The Presidential style debates that will soon hit our TV screens will be the first in Britian’s history…..
I cant help but feel that although Labour hopes to show its true self in policies and rhetoric…yet why for thirteen years were these so elusive to the public??
Is the public’s memory so bad that they cant remember the hand up which Labour has given to single mothers and the like??
Or have Labour completely damaged their credablity and trust among the normal voters…….
Incidentally, to anyone calculating the required number of seats which the Tories need to win from Labour, they should near in mind that three Northern irish MPs take the Labour whip
Allisdair MacDonnell (South Belfast) SDLP
Eddy McGrady (South Down) SDLP
Mark Durkan (Foyle) SDLP
@ OLD NAT
Scottish politics are always tactical, I think. And with the amount of information now available the strategic decision making is even more evident.
I also have respect for the fact that voters in Scotland will vote for up to 4 different parties depending on the election (Local, Holyrood, Westminster & Europe).
Voters can’t be taken for granted ‘up here’.
@Oldnat,
I think it is probably the case that Scottish voters are a little more clued in…..
Sometimes I wonder if the English electorate have the memory of a goldfish?
@ NEIL A, HOWARD
Yes, voters will switch from LD to Tory in droves when you tell them: “Howard & Amber agree LD are a Left leaning party, particularly in Scotland”
Neil A
Thank you for my elevation – I’m a retired strategist!
The three seats are LD targets and held – the candidates simply stress their own qualities and don’t require my or your advice! I forgot that point though -incumbency -very important.
I was talking about challengers.
Bill Roy “…could well have contributed to their low poll rating – ‘guilt by possible association’…”
How about this scenario…NC uses a key opportunity early in the campaign to state that the LDs want a hung Parliament to bring about only electoral reform and that the LDs will work with either of the main parties to achieve that. Effectively he appeals to floating voters that this is the time to change the way we are governed – they can make the difference.
Feasible? I think it would work.
Eoin,
Sorry, I missed the snide innuendo. Please elucidate.
My point was that you should not place your trust in raw percentages and UNS. But, even if we take your averages at face value, at 39/31 they represent a decline of 5% for Lab and an increase of 6% for Con.
Under UNS, that might not deliver a Con majority, but it will make Cons largest party.
As I was trying to explain, UNS is flawed, not because we cannot assume that the country will behave uniformly (which it won’t) but because the “bias” in the electoral landscape is due to differential turnout. I happen to think that any increase in Lab support will come disproportionately from higher turnout in its “heartlands” rather than from new converts in suburban England. That view is based on history, and the record in council elections since c2001.
As for the direction of the polls at present / over the next few weeks. We cannot know, but the trend in past fortnight has been divergent not convergent. You may hope otherwise. But as I pointed out, the key issue is where the additional votes are to be found. For Lab, that is most likely to be in seats they already hold comfortably.
@ MIKE N
I am forecasting LD will win in Bill Roy’s constituency.
@Eoin
If the SDLP take the labour whip will not the Unionists at least support a Tory government even if they might not take the whip? Any UUP Mp’s will surely take the whip under such a situation.
Amber Star: having noted that the LibDems got 46% of the vote in Bill Roy’s constituency & there’s only a tiny Labour vote to be squeezed, the Tories would probably have to take votes directly from the LibDems to win it. LibDems are good at retaining their voters.
@ Amber – Bill Roy has said he wants electoral reform too, so I’d imagine he’d be happy with an LD MP. ((smiley thingy goes here))
@ DEREK
Thanks – you provided an elegant summary of why I believe LD will hold that particular seat.
The LDs aren’t that good at holding on to their voters. They lose seats as well as gaining them you know!!
@John Fletcher the Ulster Unionists have no MPs
@paul i typed you a rather long reply but entered the wrong code… I will send you a proper one later…
high turnout favours Labour, UNS is baloney I accpet, Midlands is key and recent job announcements there help unemployment, also last polls in Wales and Scotland show Labour share of the vote growing…
This will not be the grey vote election as the BBC suggests, this will be the young peoples election, that will favour Lib Dem, then labour but least of all David Cameron- on a head to head with Blair in this age group it is tighter… youngsters judge coolness by different parameters it appears…
@Eoin,
What makes you think this will be a “young people’s” election? Have I missed something?
@Eoin
Accepted they have no MP’s at the momnet, but that does not mean they will not have any in the next parliament particularly in view of the Robinson fiasco.
Anyway, what would the DUP do if the SDLP were proping up a Labour minority administration?
Neil A, the LibDems have increased their seat total at every GE since 1992, even 1997 when their share of the national vote went down.
@ Éoin,
youngsters judge coolness by different parameters it appears…
————————————————–
I have noticed this too. They seem to prefer Brown’s “cartoon” image to Cameron’s airbrushed yoof.
Mike N – if NC says early on he is only after a hung parliament to force electoral reform then the LibDems will be toast – in case you have forgotten the economy is No.1 on peoples minds.
Amber Star – with a drop from 22% nationally to 19% nationally in LibDem support, with the seat having been a Conservative seat previously, with the wish for Brown to be gone, and with local knowledge – I predict W&L will return as a Conservative seat.
Mike N (again) – No I would not be happy with a LibDem MP on the basis that he supports electoral reform, the fact is I want a Conservative MP as my MP, and by the looks of it I will have my wish granted on May 6th.
@ NEIL A
Young people are getting involved via e-media in a big way. It starts with giggling at photoshopped posters & next thing you know, they decide it’d be a good idea to vote.
“This will not be the grey vote election as the BBC suggests, this will be the young peoples election, that will favour Lib Dem, then labour but least of all David Cameron- on a head to head with Blair in this age group it is tighter… youngsters judge coolness by different parameters it appears…”
This is one area I disagree with you, Eoin, I must admit.
1) Stats consistently show that younger people are a lot less likely to vote. The current group of youngsters are no different in this respect – in fact, I believe there is a general apathy towards youngsters amongst the under 25s at the moment.
2) A higher turnout would surely mean that the over 35s will turn out in increasing numbers? This would – even if first-time voters vote more than in recent elections – surely mean that the other 35 vote will similarly increase, thus offsetting this increase.
I expect more people in all age groups to turn out than have done in recent elections.
Don’t these people look happy and confident?!
*I meant towards politics* Typo. Apologies.
“Anyway, what would the DUP do if the SDLP were proping up a Labour minority administration?”
Sell their votes to the highest bidder, if I know them.
Eoin is definitely right. All the Yoof will vote this time They’ll defo vote Labour and not for the Party All Night Party and all the old people over 35 will be dead by early May so the Tory vote share will be, like, quacimated. Now, if Labour gains, like, 20 points and the Tories lose 30 points, which is totally possible if there’s voting by Facebook like Labour’s proposing then that’s mega landslide territory.
Yeah baby yeah.
NBeale –
Is that eBalls standing behind Mandelson?
@Sean Fear
And I can’t see that Labour can offer the DUP anything they would want without upsetting other allies in a minority administration.
@Derek P,
Let me put the LD vote share vs seat count into a different perspective…
The LDs get far more seats per vote in elections where the Tories do badly (97, 01, 05) than they do in elections where the Tories do well (79, 83, 87, 92).
If you believe the Tory vote will be comparitively low, then I’d say this election will see an increase in LD seats. I don’t necessarily think the Tory vote will be that low. I can actually forsee a lower LD seat per vote share than in the last election, particularly given that the only relevant polling we’ve had on the subject has the Tories outperforming UNS in LD targets seats (such as Bill Roy’s).
@Eoin,
I still see no evidence of this being a “youth” election, just your hypothesis. Has anyone had a look at “likelihood to vote” numbers for the age breaks in polling between now and the run up to the last election?
@EOIN
I have been telling the junior staff in the office to vote, non of the under 25’s intended to vote at all. I make a point that they should vote, reagrdless of anyone elses opinions, for who the believe can best represent them and this country.
There is complete apathy from them. but the snap poll, of the 4 gave us 2 tories, 1 labour and 1 green.
Having come in from getting the brambles before they get me (they did fight back) . I had a look at Blaydon, tough nut to crack that one. So few Tory voters to squeeze. Do you live in a three way then Bill or did I understand the mechanics wrongly?
Bill Roy “…the LibDems will be toast…”
I understand what you mean, but I just think that a really simple message delivered boldly that would appeal to voters. It would also chime with a feeling that change is needed and that much of the electorate is unhappy with both Lab and Con.
On Apathy party, has anyone kept tabs on don’t knows, don’t cares in the various tables. Are they going up or down?
@Trevorsden
“LDs should be ignoring the Tories and attacking Labour and getting their vote. That way they can make a breakthrough. How do you make a breakthrough by attacking the party on 41? Surely they should be attacking the party on 31 and replacing them?”
In a straight up-and-down comparison of basic party platforms there is much more overlap between Labour and LD than there is LD and Conservative. It would do the LD#s credibility damage to spend more time criticising a party that shares a great many of their beliefs as opposed to a party with which they have a great many conflicts.
The LD’s will do much better in this election if they concentrate their fire on the Conservatives- particularly over the economy but also social inclusion policies (particularly education, health and housing).
@Paul HJ
” This year, I believe that Lab will struggle to remain above 9m votes in total – a decline of 0.5m or 95% of their vote compared to 2005, especially as no poll in the past year has shown them above the actual result achieved in 2005. The Con vote on the other hand is likely to rise significantly, probably over the 10m mark (which would still be below the actual Con vote in every GE from 1950 to 1992) and perhaps higher. Most (but not all) of that increase will be in England – where it will deliver scores of seats from Lab to Con.”
Appreciate the long manifesto but- amongst many- these two erroneous points stand out in particular:
1) The 2005 Labour vote was seriously depleted by the Iraq war and Blair-fatigue: the better comparison- if you insist on predicating 95% support levels (without any empirical support)- is 2001. The Labour vote in 2001- on a *59%* turnout was 10.72 million i.e. 10.18 million as a 95% figure on a 40% vote. Given that this election is very likely- for a number of reasons but principally that the result counts and is also in doubt- to have a turnout higher than 59% (likely significantly higher) arguing that Labour is going to fall to 9m or even below is transparently wishful thinking rather than psephological analysis.
2) It can be argued (and I was doing so in November 2009 on this site) that in the south east and east of England rural and suburban seats, vote-upon-useless-vote is going to be piling up on top of each other. It’s one of the reasons why 39.5% Vs 30.0% performance on a UNS does not get the Conservatives even a one seat majority. The idea that these piles of votes on top of each other in largely indistinguishable suburban and rural southern/ eastern English constituencies will “deliver scores of seats” is erroneous not just because there are relatively few Labour seats left to deliver in suburban and rural SE/ EE con areas but also because in the seats in EE/SE that are more demographically and ethnically mixed (and are still Labour) the Conservatives will find it much more difficult for to make inroads.
@Bill Roy
” Just like the results last night showed the 40% barrier to be a myth it would seem from recent run of polls it would actually look as though the polls are widening than contracting the lead, hence exploding the myth of the inevitability of polls tightening.”
One swallow does not make a spring and you really should know that !! But of course you do which is why its correct to point this out to you but more so for everyone else: there is no broken myth over 40%- not least because one was never constructed but also because one (or even five) polls at/over 40% when coexisting with poll numbers at significant variance to 40% and when the trended average is below 39 means that…the Tories have not ‘reached 40%’ in any meaningful statistical sense. Give me 7-14 days of polls where 8/10 of them are at or over 40% and I’ll change my mind.
@Bill Roy part deaux
” I was expressing the fact that the LibDems should attack Labour where they would win more votes from previously voting Labour supporters than they would from previous voting Conservative supporters by attacking the Conservatives”
WRONG- the way to get Labour supporters to vote for you (where Labour are not in contention) is to ATTACK the Conservatives !!! Give we know your constituency I think you’ll be a sad bloke on May 6th/7th- TV / LD solid support and leakage of Tories to UKIP to keep LD’s in your seat ! 2005 = LD winning margin was 984 and there were 3,784 votes for Labour…………….
@NeilA
” I take it, as official LD spokesman on UKPR, that in agreeing with Amber’s post about Edinburgh you accept that the LDs are a “Leftie” party? That will be great news for my Tory activist colleagues campaigning in Newton Abbott, Torbay and North Devon!”
Ahem: it will actually be great news for LD’s when the Labour vote vanishes and shifts en masse to them !!
Bill Roy
I agree with you. NC will never say what Mike N wants him to. For the simple reasons I outlined earlier. I have toyed with the idea myself as have all LD’s but then I would have a quick lie down and recover my composure. The time for the PR push is after the election, not before. You are right in that no poll puts fair votes as top issue. Mind i am not sure they put their questions in a way that would make a voter consider the issue.
Rob,
polls mostly show a very substantial net loss of 2005 voters from Labour to the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
Non-voters from 2005, and new voters, may partly plug the gap, but for every former vote lost to a rival party, you need to get two new votes to make up the difference.
Known unknowns
TV debates, 15, 22 and 29/4
Employment stats. 21/4
Crime stats E&W 22/4
Retail sales 22/4
Public sector finance stats 22/4
GDP Q1 stats 23/4
G-20 Finance Ministers meeting Washington DC 23/4
Any others?
Howard “NC will never say what Mike N wants him to”
Ah, but it would be so refreshingly different if he did!
Back to the drawing board.
I’m sorry if its been discussed but there I just can’t for one second imagine how Yougov has gone from 2-10 in about 10 days… when the labour vote was undented by varoius stories, including the ministers for cash scandal.
Nothing has changes to lead to a doubling of the tory lead, nothing. So was Yougov wrong then or wrong now? Or a bit of both?
Anthony?
Or anyone else?!
Rob Sheffield – I was pointing out about the mythicallity of the 40% barrier as had been postulated on this blog by a few posters. As your assertion about ‘one swallow’ is absolutely correct, but can that not also apply to a certain poll last night concerning the narrowing of the polls?
Concerning your other ‘points’, I will not even bother answering your ‘opinions’.
Howard – it is a two way fight here in W&L, and it only requires a 0.9% swing to go back to Conservative.
We’ll have the Times Populus poll out tomorrow evening, according to Peter Riddell.
Polling takes place today and tomorrow morning.
Howard – I think you may be pleasantly surprised just how popular electoral reform could be amoungst Conservatives, although obviously it may cost some Conservatives seats at the General Election after this one there is perhaps a better oportunity than ever before to get wide cross party support for it. We have a situation presently whereby AV on a constituency basis would undoubtedly be popular with voters. I do appreciate that maybe for 20-30 years it could produce coalition governments, but I think if ‘our’ politicians were placed in such a position we would have far more representative and accountable government.
Mark Johnson Re your comment
“How on earth do you arrive at ‘Labour & Tories will be in the mid 30s by the middle of next week and LDs on 21%’ ?
What makes you think that and who have all the % gone to”
My reading of this, is that a large percentage (20%) of those likely to vote have not made up their minds yet. The vote for the Tories is perhaps firmer as the ‘change’ candidates, but now the election has been called, wavering voters will be making up their minds. My opinion is the Labour and the Tories only have around 35% of the votes. The Lib Dems will be around 21-23%, when they have an equal chance to air their agenda. There is still a sizable part of the electorate who turned their back on the Tories in 1997 that still do not trust them to be a ‘one nation’ party.
I don’t see this election as being 1997, when the swing was massive. I see the election being similar to 1992, with Labour hanging on by their finger nails.
@greengrass: none of these stats will make any real difference unless there is a double-dip recesion (unlikely). The TV debates probably will – but I suspect they will just confirm opinion.
@Jon: When YouGov gave a 2% lead on the 23rd the Weightred Moving Average was 5 so they were 3 points down – well within MoE. Now the WMA is about 8.5 so 9 is close. All polls are subject to random variation (”sampling error”) and variations in the lead of up to 5% will happen 95% of the time. 5% they will be even higher.
Rob Sheffield,
(1) If turnout were the same this year as in 2005, then – on current polls – Lab have lost approx 1/7 of its 2005 vote – ie it retains only about 85% of its 2005 support, and has lost some 1.4m votes to fall to just above 8m.
Allowing for increased turnout, I think Lab will still make 9m (hence 95% of 2005 votes), but it will be a different set of people from the 9.5m obtained in 2005. Not only will it be different voters, it will have a different geographic distribution. This will however be a significantly lower % than that secured by Blair in 2001 or 1997.
In 2001, Lab’s 10m was 42% of those who voted. Are you seriously suggesting that Lab will reach 42% in the next 4 weeks ? If Lab do reach 10m due to increased turnout, then the chances are that Cons will be above 12m – which is still below the level reached in any election since 1945 except 1974 or those which Lab won.
(2) England covers far more than just SE. Yes, there are probably only 20-30 seats left in S England (o/s London) for Lab to lose. But there are still dozens of marginals in Midlands and North, and most of these are not in city centres. In many cases, Cons have already made inroads on the local councils, so undermines your demographic argument.
I am not arguing that the election is already in the bag. But, based on where we are today both politically and psehologically, it is difficult to see how Brown can expect to remain as PM after 6th May.
Bill Roy
‘It is a two way fight here in W&L, and it only requires a 0.9% swing to go back to Conservative.’
It needs a site more than that Bill. Have a look at AW’s electoral map of the seat and side piece on boundary changes concerning the seat.
If the Tories win that one and the other 116 seats, that are easier than it to win and don’t lose any, they will have a somewhat comfortable victory.
Re young people voting. Don’t forget my teenage bullying campaign??? Remember I cook for them in exchange for them letting me nag them about politics.
Be afraid, be very afraid 
4 New Labour votes already
Bill Roy,
Having visited your constituency as a tourist at the weekend, and witnessed the ratio of Lib Dem to Tory posters, I’l say you have a difficult fight on your hands.
The LDs appear very well organised, and well supported by farmers with good billboard sites!
Sue
4 down and just a few million to go. The last person who converted millions by making food go a long way was quite successful of course.
I didn’t realise that Angela Merkel got to vote in this election.
Statto
Groan – back to anecdote and not even joking like Sue.
I am disappointed that Lib Dem’s are resorting to posters in fields. Down here we say that cows and sheep don’t have the vote.
Bill Roy,
I’ve just spotted your candidate is banker with Morgan Stanley. I take it all back – it’s a shoe-in
Sean
That’s the style.
Upsetting Angela Merkel has got to be a plus for UKIP/Tory waverers?
I’m sure the Tory PR machine has plenty of attack ads ready if other heads of state do Gordon Brown too many favours in the run up to the election.
Foreign heads of government will keep their views to themselves during the election campaign – as they never know who they may have to deal with afterwards.
@Sean, John Fletcher,
Ulster politics is something I do know quite a bit about, having once held a leadership role with one of the parties.
The UUP-Conservative alliance will with 100% certainty not get one allaince.
Their best hope was Hermon’s seat, which will bow be split at least three ways possilbly four
Foyle/South Down= SDLP
West Tyrone/Mid Ulster/Fermanagh/West Belf/Newry = Sinn Féin
south Belfast is a two way battle but that does not include Conservatives.
Take it as a fact, the Conservative party has done a deal with the least popular of the four Ulster parties. Rather silly really….
@BT
How do you define single mum? I see a difference between someone who was married for several years, then seperated/divorced with kids and a 19yr old who shacked up with a guy.
@matt,
I was off out, sorry I could not get back to you.
I accept all th eevidence points to the fact that grey’s vote more than youngsters…
There is no substantive evidence to back up my point reference the youth voitng more…
it was 100% hypothetical based upon a hunch that the last two elections at least wil have added very little youth vote to the electorate…
there is also a precedent – 1918 but I accept that followed a war…. it did greatly upset poltiical balance though…
bottom line Matt, you right and I am wrong
Well, concerning W&L, it will be the people voting and unless someone else here is from the constituency then a the moment it is Cons 1 (2 if you permit my wife’s vote), Labour 0 and LibDems 0.
AW the above was just for fun!
We will have the YG figures in a few hours, up – down -static, none of us know, but one thing is for sure they will be interesting. Possibly a couple/few other polls may come out tonight.
The interesting thing for pollsters should AV be selected is they would have a much harder job identifying likely outcome. Imagine the situation whereby the split was 40/30/20 (I know those figures will bring a smile to one posters face
), just imagine the complexity of working out whether the holder of 40% in the first round would indeed be able to get to 50% ahead of the one only holding 30% in the first round, and having to do this on every single constituency as local/personal issues played into the election even more. 
Howard – glad you won your battle with the brambles by the way, I have yet to start tackling mine.
I have been looking at propensity and potential for Hung Parliament since 1929. Despite several very close elections, we have only had the 1974 Hung Parliament.
This can be attributed to one of two reasons.
- Pure luck that despite the pretty large chance of hung parliaments in tight elections, it simply hasn’t happened.
- The electorate don’t like/trust hung parliaments, and tend to make a decisive swing one way or the other.
I really believe the latter is true of the British electorate, and for that reason, I am going to personally rule out a hung parliament now. I therefore strongly expect either a real tightening of the polls, or a further widening.
My personal view is that I believe the latter will happen, with a consensus in the Country wanting change, not just from Labour, but also associating needing change with the overall last parliament, i.e. expenses, lobbying etc.
rich
@Paul, Rob Sheffield,
Rob has answered it well Paul, but i will still get a proper answer to you in a bit….
Did anyone see the below on political betting?
“To put it into context the studies show that a massive 8 out of 10 (13.4 million) of over 55s said they would definitely vote in the General Election compared to less than one in two 18-24 year olds (2.5 million).”
CON LAB LIB OTH
45-54 year olds 32% 38% 17% 13%
55-64 year old 39% 27% 19% 15%
All 55 and over 46% 24% 16% 14%
All 65 and over 49% 23% 15% 13%
All 18+ 37% 31% 19% 13%
This gives 22% lead for Cons in the 55 and Over category/
@TRUE BLUE
It is exactly that point which I made to Eoin Clarke earlier when he was explaining how all the kids are going to vote and put Mr Brown back with a 97 seat majority. Mr Brown being so hip an all.
@Eoin
Look up about 12 messages, i said to BT i differentiate between two types of single mother.
Eoin Clarke
Take it as a fact, the Conservative party has done a deal with the least popular of the four Ulster parties. Rather silly really….
———————————–
Cameron’s foray into Ulster was supposed to be clever. It has turned itself to be utterly disastrous. Sylvia Hermon is winning in her own right – the official UCUNF losing this one. I suppose it is only in Strangford where they have an outside chance. The idea was that NI would be a top-up. So far, the top-up is likely to be zero.
@ TRUE BLUE
What’s the split between under-55 & over-55? PB is comparing an age span of 6 years to potentially 60 years (ok a bit of artistic license there!) Of course there will be many more in the >55 age bracket.
Surbiton,
As the Conservatives have currently no seats in Northern Ireland, how exactly have they lost out?
@Tom Curtis,
well my mum was in the 19 year old unmarried bracket….
what does that change?
Besides, I am unmarried and am a single father (primary carer)…..
do you have absolutely any idea what you are tlaking about?
I have just been on Facebook with my daughter. She is 20 and at college.
She sais she and all her friends are going to vote Tory.
Reason. They can’t stand GB. All they have ever know in Labour and they hate it. Quite like DC but love Samantha.
Not scientific. Not PC, but certianly shows that not all the Yoof vote is Labour.
@ ALL (Éoin & Sue especially)
Can we agree not to feed the trolls? I confess, I fell for it last night but it’s like spitting into a hurricane
For goodness sake, how many more Tories want to come on and say their kids will be voting Tory??? spot the obvious link anyone?
@Amber,
I reluctantly agree but the sexism knows no bounds….
I reluctantly agree but the homophobia knows no bounds…
I reluctantly agree but the anti-Celtic rants know no bounds…
Amber – totally agree. Notice I haven’t said a word.
Now that the election has FINALLY been called, I must now eat my words. I previously said that Brown will hold the election on 3rd June. Prediction?
Conservative Victory.
The BBC Sunday politics show has stationed a reporting team in Stourbridge WM. They have profiled some likely families as typical etc, and are following them during the election. I think they started last September, but having only seen one report I could be wrong. However, during the programme they had their, ‘typical’ family gathered around the kitchen table, working mum and dad, kids just left school looking for work, own home etc. I was dumbstruck that the kids, when asked about voting, both said they wouldn’t, they seemed exactly the types who would.
When asked why they would refrain from voting, in all seriousness, the answer given was that the B*P had no candidates standing.
Drilling down a bit, the reporters found two main reasons, lack of jobs, and immigration.
The kids also reported that most of their friends felt the same.
Sue, get over to Stourbridge, your public awaits.
@Eoin,
I am a single father also. I have joint custody of my daughter straight down the line. Last couple of years have been hard for various reasons, but nothing to do with the Govt in this instance.
rich
EOIN – There, there. It is hard, but we must resist. I can only hope they shout their message loud and proud wherever they get a chance. Give them a voice! Let them tell the world what they believe.
Labour or the Lib Dems will achieve a landslide.
@Sue M
1. Since when have my daughters friends have been my kids?
2. I am not Tory, I vote UKIP.
My 20 yr-old son says he and most of his friends agree with Obama that DC is a lightweight
@ Eoin & Sue
I know it’s hard to ignore – Like an itchy ‘elbow’. But Anthony just mods it later & any responses get modded too. It goes on your count for pre-mod & I’d hate to lose either of you to the naughty step
MY kids will vote tory also Sue Marsh
Incidentally, Stourbridge is 25th on the Tory hit list, probably turning Blue from Red on election day.
For what it is worth the types of views expressed, I do not think dominate one party. They transcend party politics. In fact, I am not even sure the character ever stated a political allegiance.
I see that the comments have been removed so I am happy now. But having seen the rants last night and stayed silent it was hard to tolerate them two days running….
Good for you Adam!! Mine are 5 and 2 sadly.
John Fletcher – My mistake, but good, don’t hold your nose and vote Tory will you?
Balance re-dress here:
My son campaigns for Labour. He & literally hundreds of young people that he ‘influences’ will vote Labour – or LD for tactical reasons.
Does anybody want to raise the stakes?
@Sue
Sticking to my principles is easy . The Tories have a 7000 majority in my constituency. LOL
@ GREEN GRASS
You should be proud of your son, 20 is quite young to be following US politics & making sound judgements based on it
Many young people are just not bothered. I have tried to discuss politics time and again with my daughter, but I can see there is no real interest there.
Mind you, she is only three and a half.
All my 17 kids by me 4 mrs’s will vote Labour. That bitch Thatcher stopped me bad back money and made me get a job.
Me kids never forgive her.
My 18-year-old son isn’t only going to vote Labour, he’s persuaded his girlfriend (in a Labour marginal) to do the same, and is standing in the local elections too. So there.
John Fletcher – Tory maj 9,300 here
Well Amber. I have very little tolerence for governments that stay beyond two terms. I will not be voting Labour as I am point blank fed up with them. The last time I voted Labour was 1997. My vote will go to the most Anti EU candidate but I will not be voting UKIP. Any guesses? You will get a gold badge if you guess correctly.
Guys your ancedotes ignore the facts…
Since polling has begun, the youth have always favoured Labour and Liberals over Tory….
The point where I was wrong and Matt was correct was the % of youth which we can expect to turn out… I have no evidence of substance bar 1918 election that large numbers of them can shape a result. in the manner I have suggested…
Sinn Féin won 73 seats in teh December 1918 election. Locally, there were reports that they carried their parents to the polling booths and even threatened their parents with violence if they did not give up the bourgeois party…. tenuous evidence I know…
Sorry Matt
@ SUE
RE: Mine are 5 & 2 “sadly”
You win – wanting your kids to grow up fast so they can vote is awesome……
John Fletcher I think if I could read all the parties manifestos without knowing who they were written by and then voted for a manifeto with an unbiased oppinion I would def vote for UKIP but I have to vote Tory this time to make shore Labour do not get back in. However the following election may be completely different by then as I am expecting the Euro to collapse after greece, and portugal defualt and have to leave the euro shortly. So I think UKIP voters will have a massive part to play in this election and could sway things one way or the other. Most UKIP voters are ex tory’s and it depends if they would prefer labour or the Tory’s to be in power and vote tactically?
@richard,
that is endearing … my son quote’s engels at length (tongue in cheek)
Richard O – Lol
Roland – I’ve been going right off you lately
My wife will vote Labour despite years of indoctrination by parents who make Maggie seem abit of a lefty. Her brother will vote Labour or LD depending who appears to make the most inroads in his area. The tide isn’t all to the milk snatching Tories.
I must say my son did make the 6 oclock news for a solitary Anti-Bush protest in his last ever visit to Northern Ireland….
2008-april i think
He picketed a school were Bush was giving a speech before the local constabulary decided he was a threat- seriously!
AW
hold the front page.
UKPR contributors are holding snap polls around teh country and results are 100% support for one party but, amazingly, these results vary by huge swings from one place to another.
Amber – Maybe not “sadly, they’re very cute. I wish I could tell you what my 5 year old says when DC comes on the telly, but sadly AW would cull me!!
@ KYLE
You now have me racking my brains – I hope it’s not anybody obvious or was the gold badge thing a joke?
@ AMBER
“Does anybody want to raise the stakes? ”
Yes-OK then.
My daughter-two young children-married-divorced-single disabled mum.
Hated Thatcher. Massive social conscience. Left as they come.
Hates Brown-is going to vote for Cameron ( I still cannot quite believe it ).
Her teenage daughter-as big a rebel as her mother thinks Cameron is “nice”.
Love all-your serve
@Eoin
In my experiece younger people tend to be against the establishment. and to the 18 -25 year old voters Labour are the establishment. They are the only government they have been aware of.
I am not saying polling does not show that a majority of younger voters will not be polled saying they favour Labour, but I speculate that the effect may be less than anticipated in this election because of the time Labour have been in power.
Thank you for your comments about Northern Irleand, I was away for a bit and have only just caught up.
Amber think back to the 1990s. The party that blew a gasket over Europe and still has very faint scars.
@True Blue
“To put it into context the studies show that a massive 8 out of 10 (13.4 million) of over 55s said they would definitely vote in the General Election compared to less than one in two 18-24 year olds (2.5 million).”
Of course, this is the Tory supporting, always-voting grey tidal wave that delivered massive majorities for the Tories in 1997, 2001 and 2005, isn’t it? And they obviously came out in their usual reliable force to guarantee respective turn-outs of 71%, 59% and 61% in those self same elections. More ludicrous myths peddled to fit self -serving partisan theories. And, as for John Fletcher and his daughter’s Facebook hypothesis; is there no limit to the depths of banality that some people sink to on here??
Anthony, I make a final appeal. I was led to believe that this was an independent website dedicated to the non-partisan discussion of opinion polling. I’m prepared to tolerate the obvious preponderence of Tories on here, as long as they’re sensible, and maybe their pre-ponderence has something to do with the regularly streamed Tory adds on the website, but for the sake of intellectually interesting political debate, you need to take a far more hands-on moderating role. This comments page is starting to resemble the Dail Mail’s letters column, and , quite frankly, I can’t think of a more damning indictment!
THIS FEEL LIKE 1992.
After reading the Daily Mail everyday I feel ashamed to be a Labour Voter!
MORE POLLS TONIGHT?
[snipped - Surbiton, if I moderate the orginal comment (which I intended to do, if it's still there I will do so now) then I moderate replies to it too - AW]
@Sue……….I’ve been to a few Countryside Alliance fund raisers in your neck of the woods. I must admire you, even though you are on an exercise in futility, you must be drowning in a sea of Blue down there.
‘I wandered lonely as a cloud…………!
@ COLIN
Fair enough – I hope your daughter is voting policies not personalities. Then I could not argue with her. I never argue with people who have good reasons for their decision.
Has Angela Merkel come out and supported Brown or something?
I am fully prepared for quite a bit of Euro leader backing for Brown. Firstly he was part of the overall EU pressure group that got the poll re-run in Ireland, and also pulled the Czechs in. Secondly, he also reneged on the 2005 manifesto pledge to give a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty (or its forerunner). Both these played very well with the Europeans, so they probably owe him a favour.
I also suspect they are rather nervous of Cameron, despite the pledge by him not ro re-explore the legal basis of the Lisbon treaty.
Ken
do you meet Glen Otto at these CA shindigs? if so it must be a fleeting moment as he whizzes around the home counties converting everyone (I mean everyone) to vote blue.
@Amber……………..You do it all the time !
@Adam
I would def vote for UKIP but I have to vote Tory this time to make shore Labour do not get back in.
_________________________________________
I have been doing quite a lot of telephone canvassing and what you are typical of the responses. I am absolutely sure that a lot of UKIP supporters will, especially in the marginals, vote Tory simply to keep euroland loving LAB/LIB Mp’s out.
Amber if you are still stumped, then the answer is Conservative. I don’t think that you can’t deny that they are all over the place about Europe and I hate the EU,
Someone asked me the other day, “How can you vote Tory?” and I replied “With a heavy heart and a strong drink before I do it”
@Howard…………..I just enjoy the company of people who don’t brainwash their kids with Marxist claptrap.
@ NICK HADLEY & HOWARD
I was hoping we’d get some analysis of the ICM outcomes that were written about in 2 Guardian articles – that would’ve given us something to discuss, rather than us all just chatting & waiting for a new poll to appear.
But so far, nobody has taken up the challenge of reviewing the ICM/ Guardian outcomes & critiquing them.
@ KYLE
I thought Tory was too obvious… I was trying to remember if the old liberal party ever made a faux pas re: Europe, back in the day.
Whatever they say out loud, the majority of Tories are pro-business & pro-farmers therefore they are pro-Europe.
“Guys your ancedotes ignore the facts…
Since polling has begun, the youth have always favoured Labour and Liberals over Tory….
The point where I was wrong and Matt was correct was the % of youth which we can expect to turn out… I have no evidence of substance bar 1918 election that large numbers of them can shape a result. in the manner I have suggested…
Sinn Féin won 73 seats in teh December 1918 election. Locally, there were reports that they carried their parents to the polling booths and even threatened their parents with violence if they did not give up the bourgeois party…. tenuous evidence I know…
Sorry Matt
”
No need to apologise, Eoin. Your analysis was mainly valid IMO in that more young people will probably vote than have done in recent decades, and this will benefit the Lib Dems/Labour.
“Balance re-dress here:
My son campaigns for Labour. He & literally hundreds of young people that he ‘influences’ will vote Labour – or LD for tactical reasons.
Does anybody want to raise the stakes?
”
The stats overwhelmingly back up the point that younger people tend to vote Lib Dem/Labour and always have done. I, therefore, wonder what happens to turn many young people away from socialistic views/political parties as they get older, and is this something that parties like the Lib Dems/Labour can address? It’s an interesting point IMO, as so many people would remain Lib Dem/Labour supporters if only they could convince them to keep their views when they reach adulthood, and this would surely have major implications for British politics and society.
@SURBITON
That is the nicest thing anybody has ever said to me Surby. To be responsible for the British Empire, my goodness, I am deeply moved.
@ MATT
In the past, Labour/ LD lost the youngsters when they started reading newspapers
But that may be all in the past, as newspaper circulation is falling.
In the US, they are filling that gap with Fox news etc. But I am hopeful that won’t happen here.
ROLAND HAINES
@SURBITON
That is the nicest thing anybody has ever said to me Surby. To be responsible for the British Empire, my goodness, I am deeply moved.
————
To each his own, Roly !
@KEN
Did you notice the day before yesterday, you made a funny ever so slightly risque comment. I made like a PC Stalinist and jokingly rebuked you. Lo and behold a bit later I made a little joke and was duly set upon for real by the Thought Police. The best of it was the guy having the hissy fit got the wrong poster and blamed poor Bill Roy. I took it like a man and owned up, it is something of a shock to see the level of seriousness some of these people take themselves.
@Matt
The reason many people give up youthful left-leaning views is that when they have to make a living in the real world, they realise that left-wing idealism is a luxury that becomes less important when you own property, have a family etc.
Amber Star
@ MATT
In the past, Labour/ LD lost the youngsters when they started reading newspapers here…………
————————————————–
When I was at University, it was said that at 20 if you are not a socialist, you haven’t got a heart and at 40, if you are not a Tory, you haven’t got a head.
I have not conformed to the latter as this would be the 4th election after my 40th.
My piece on people gradually becoming rightwing as they grow older: It’s the income bracket , stupid! The idealism is lost and straightforward money-counting starts. [ I am talking about the general population ]
Of course, that didn’t happen with me either. The tax changes this year will hurt me – but my political sympathy will not change. I have mellowed somewhat, I guess. I am a Social Democrat now, I suppose [ not the SDP type, I hasten to add ]. More like an European Soc. Dem.
Ken
I was trying to make a joke at poor Glen’s expense but I did not get through this time I suspect.
Amber
Where do i find this info – i too would like to discuss details of a poll
ANTHONY
I have now been in moderation for 18 hours despite making serious comments whilst Roland Haines gets away with making nasty little comments at my expense.
Could try and persuade people to behave responsibly during the campaign.
Amber Star
“so far, nobody has taken up the challenge of reviewing the ICM/ Guardian outcomes & critiquing them”
You could have a go, you know you want to. Oh, all right then, I’ll do it.
ICM have polled a stable result for Labour all year. A one point climb, then hold steady, then another 1 point climb. The last two have been a bit odd though. 29 is the lowest then 33 the highest that ICM has given them in the 11 polls undertaken this year. Whilst the 29 corresponds closely with other pollsters around the same time, 33 is higher than everyone else and has only been matched by YouGov about a month previously. Average them and you get 31 which is more like their previous results leading me to suspect that the last two polls are subject to a little random variation. If the next ICM poll is in the range 30 – 32 then I’d be tempted to put these results down to noise.
Moving on to the Conservatives, ICM have been tightly packed with the other pollsters, indicating a gradual fall over the first 10 weeks of the year followed by a small recovery over the last 2 or 3 weeks. Their last result being the lowest of the 3 polls yesterday probably has no statistical significance and can probably only be analysed fully in the light of the next poll from ICM.
Again, ICM have followed the other pollsters in reporting the LibDem vote, with the notable exception to Opinium, who under report by a few points when compared to everyone else. Their poll before last gave the Lib Dems their highest result yet in 2010, matched by Angus Reid’s one point less the day before. Given the apparent rogue nature of that poll’s Labour result, some might question the Lib Dem result too. Their 1st of April poll seems to have given an undue swing from Lab to LibDem which was reversed on their poll of the 5th.
With statistical data based on small samples, it is better not to overly analyse one result in isolation but to look at sequences of data. ICM generally correlate well with other pollsters, giving confidence that their results are generally accurate and reliable. A sudden jump one way followed by a jump the other suggests random noise. I’d be tempted just to average them out.
Amber, the Tories are splitting hairs over Europe. They moved out of the European peoples party and formed a Euro Sceptic block of nutters and others. Europe is full of the bloated waste that the Tories hate and if they are really pro Europe, they wouldn’t be banging on about Sovreingty. They really are in a bit of a pickle about Europe and I think most of the pro EU garbage they sprout is just for show.
@Matt……………..The media are pushing youth to the right, as Amber pointed out Fox in the US is using very sophisticated methodology to influence young people. The reason is commercial……..they need a high level of consumption of their, and their client’s products. Over here Murdoch is using his UK group to this end. I suspect we will see a change in the attitude of young people to politics, left, right, and centre.
Personally I support the old dictum………If you’re not a Socialist ’til you’re 30, there’s something wrong with your heart. If you’re a Socialist after that, there’s something wrong with your head !
33% in YG Sunday poll had the PM doing well. Now I know the Tories are thinking “well that is not very high”, but lets slow down for a minute…
We are trying to ascertain what is the ceiling to labour support. I think we should all be honest and admit that it is probably the least certain aspect of the three parties support.
We know the Tories will be anything heading towards or even bang on thirty.
But is the 33% who think Brown is doing a gd job, evdience perhaps, that there is still room for improvement in Labour’s share.
I firmly beleive that the flickers of 33% 34% which we have witnessed at various intervals, not least yesterday, will be the parties eventual share of the vote.
There was an old US polling site I regulalry visited on Fox News channel in the US presidential elections. It had some useful candidate approval and presidential approval rates to compare to.
If I am not mistaken Bush had lower ratings before he went on to beat Kerry.
@Surbiton…………….Blimey, I thought it was lost in the mists of time………slight divergence in age though.
Oh dear Oh dear, the last leader popularity stakes statistics from YG.
BROWN – 28
CAMERON + 17
CLEGG + 31
For Labour supporters there is good news and bad news.
Good News, Brown has not gone down further.
Bad news, Cameron and Clegg have both increased their popularity.
ew of that to others but I understand their frustation.
Eoin polling issues
As a middle aged (nowadays at 64) I’ll tell you what really does surprise me in the polling. When you get to my age, your parents and elderly relatives need oodles of cash to keep them alive if, as is now the case, your wife or anyone else is unwilling to be a carer. So you have to pay for it. But from 65 to 80?
I say this with no fear or favour. The ten years GB was chancellor have been tremendous for the elderly. As POA for three of them, they benefited hugely under GB’s various credits and handouts – I mean hugely. In each case they were actually increasing their savings before they passed on or went into the home and of course that is going to the grand children ASAP before the authorities swipe it for care costs.
The shame is that GB will never got any thanks from them because they became dement and no longer had any idea what was being done fore them. But I know. BTW I heard the argument about Equitable Life and I have a differing view of that to others but I undrestand their frustation.
The question is – how many compos people do know and why do pollsters not ask people about that? if someone could point me to such a poll question I should be very interested to read the results.
BTW I heard the argument about Equitable Life type policies and I have a differing vi
@Howard……………And Amber didn’t get my, ‘bluebell wood’ cryptic either ! Still can’t win ‘em all !
Apols for the mixed up post – perhaps I’m getting older than I thought!
@Roland……………….I enjoy your posts, but,I like to see all points of view, some only see their own, sad !
@Howard,
Your message was crystal clear and I agree fully.
For once, I will be optimistic, I think the media scrutiny over the next few weeks will examine it closely
I hear Alan Johnson and Cris rGayling and Chris Huhne are to have a TV debate. Maybe that will bring out some of these issues.
Late entry into the “how would your kids vote” straw poll:
My daughter (12) and younger son (6) couldn’t give a stuff, much to my chagrin. Particularly disappointed with my daughter who I thought was a bit more engaged than that.
My older son’s response to the 6 O’clock news this evening was quite interesting though. We watched footage of Brown announcing the election date with the cabinet all round him, and then Cameron by the river talking to his people. My son would vote Labour, he said, because he doesn’t trust Cameron. He is 10 and high-functioning autistic. Make of it what you will.
My opinion (and this is purely anecdotal) is that more young people that I know who are preparing to vote for the first time will go for Cameron.
Obviously the LDs principal aim must be to secure electoral reform.
However, why does electoral reform require a referendum? We didn’t have a referndum on votes for women, on reducing the voting age to 18, or on expelling the majority of hereditary peers from the Lords. I see no reason why the LDs could not demand, as the price of support, a commmitment to STV as the voting system for the election after this
It seems to me that political obsession is a family thing, left wing politics play a much bigger part in left wing families, than right wing politics play in right wing families.
Reading the posts of left leaning parents is very enlightening, I simply don’t have experience of a politically influenced upbringing, my parents were typically middle of the road, and political debate didn’t play any real part in our life.
My stepdaughters are 13 and almost 17. I don’t suppose either could name the UK’s political parties. The older one could only name about 10 European countries in a pop quiz I gave her yesterday. They don’t know anything about current affairs, history or geography. Neither can write an essay, and the older one struggles with basic arithmetic. I don’t know whether this all suggests that younger people shouldn’t vote, or that state schools in the Plymouth area are truly atrocious…
Anthony, Any chance of fast-tracking these links through moderation. They are ICM poll articles from the Guardian.
Thanks
I hope these links will work & not be too long in moderation
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/05/icm-poll-labour-conservatives-election
@ HOWARD
I have posted links to Guardian article(s) which I’m hoping Anthony will un-mod soon. They will jump back in time to 7:27 if he does okay them
”@ SUE MARSH
Roland – I’ve been going right off you lately
A combination of the young Sean Connery and Jonathan Ross.
Devilishly irrisistable, but a horrid rank Tory.
By the way are we starting a prediction session for YouGov poll tonight?
Shall I start it off as there is only 2.5 hours to go!
Con 40
Lab 28
LD 19
@ Sue Marsh
“John Fletcher – Tory maj 9,300 here”
I can better that one. Arundel & South Downs. If all the labour voters & Lib Dems got together in the last election they still would have lost by 3,000 votes!!
Whats more the Tories are likely to do even better here. Current majority is 11,309. I put money on nearly 13,000 majority this time.
You’ve confused me now, Roland. I don’t think Jonathan Ross is THAT irresistable. And I’m quite sure that Connery was never a Tory.
Same here in South Croydon, Mark: Tories>(Labour+LibDem) by a comfortable margin.
My son is eight this month. He has drawn a beard and glasses on Gordon Brown, and asked if we can put a picture of David Cameron in our garden. Mind you he also supports my football team so I wonder where parental influence wanes and political awareness takes over?
I was adopted, the people who brought me up were lower to middle middle class small business Tories from Hertfordshire.
My real parents (who never married) I eventually met seperately.
My mother has lived in California for 55 years and is a very liberal Democrat, but was a Tory before she emigrated. My father is from a South Yorks pit family, but management not hewers.
He became a teacher then headmaster in North Notts all his woking life. I dont know but I would think Labour perhaps Liberal.
Imagine, I might of been on the site singing the Red Flag.
@MITZ
I lied.
Simon H
I had a conversation with my boys a while back. Went something like this:
Me: Do you support Swindon Town like your Dad?
Boys: No way!
Me: What about Crystal Palace – they’re your local team?
Boys: Naaah.
Me: Well, who do you support then?
Boys: Chelsea – they win things.
Me: Sigh.
BRADFORD WEST
Unbelieveably, the Tories are sniffing here. Thanks to the Muslim vote !
Muslims everywhere else are voting overwhelmingly against the Tories.
Some local views would be welcome.
KEN – didn’t understand your point. I never put the word “claptrap” after the word “Marxist”……
Interesting debate on file sharing today in the Commons, the luvvies in showbiz and their spokesman Ben Bradshaw……….trying to force through an anti freedom bill, before Parliament dissolves.
If kids need a reason to blow out Labour , this is it.
@ KEN
Mark Rose – We are neighbours!
Re : Young people voting. In the hospital today I heard a woman tell her (16? 17? year old) daughter, “That one is David Cameron and that’s his wife. This one is Gordon Brown”
*sigh*
ROLAND
That’s an interesting story. Our lives are shaped by values we are brought up around – mostly.
@ Ken
It’s interesting you say that left-wing families tend to be more political. On the one hand I’ve heard it said that Labour is more tribal than the Tories and the Lib Dems….but this would imply a higher propensity to vote regardless of Labour performance I’d have thought….which doesn’t tally with the view that low turnout helps the Tories and indeed with the polls suggesting that Tories are more likely to turnout and vote….perhaps Labour voters have to REALLY unhappy to ditch the Labour vote whereas Tories will skip off to UKIP as soon as there’s a whiff of Lisbon in the air.
@Barnaby…………….Sorry, I got carried away.
Amber – me too.
Ken – Selective reporting!! The Tories have threatened to get rid of BBC3, Radio 1 and GB is starting a fight with Murdoch to stop him keeping the world cup to himself.
All in the name of balance you understand.
Anyway, keep up, they all use spotify now didn’t you know? Perfectly legal.
@Amber……………….That’s what I love about you.
MITZ
My son is also autistic. But, sadly, not in a position to articulate any views. He is 9 but I suppose with a mental age of perhaps 2.
@Sue………………I’m not a fan of the Beeb, they tax me for J. Ross etc., spotify.in the spirit of free enterprise I salute you !
My mother was a bit of a contra-stereotype. A nurse turned social worker who was also a lifelong Tory. Being towed around as she delivered leaflets and put up posters might have swayed me, but I was actually pretty left wing (or at least I believed in spending more on everything) until I found out about the national debt. Even now I think I’d probably be a Liberal Democrat if they weren’t so europhilic and had a bit more “OrangeBookness” about them.
Hi Howard, Sue, Barnaby & all
I have posted a link to the Guardian ICM article. It is out of moderation.
There is two articles but once you’ve found one, the other should also be findable.
BTW, Howard – ICM asked a question about care for the elderly as it is discussed a little in the article.
I’m not sure if the G has a link to the actual data yet. If anybody finds one, let us know where it is. Thx.
KEN – don’t mean to get territorial but I loved Amber first.
I have a mixture of left and right-wing views. My social views tend to be, on the whole, conservative (with some exceptions), but I believe in helping those who need help i.e. I think old people and the disabled get a very raw deal in the UK at present. I guess I occupy the centre ground overall.
anyone any thoughtson how the 3 way watford seat will work out?
mitz, i was in south croydon not long ago……….the demographics seemed to favour labour…… am i wrong?
Amber – the most striking thing to me was that it seemed to imply half of all LibDems would consider voting tactically. I wonder how much of that is influenced by the chance of AV/PR whatever. OR of course it could just as easily be those who can’t bear another 5 years of Labour?
@ Barnaby
Aw that is so sweet – you are utterly adorable
One other polling point. When I saw the results last night, i figured both YouGov AND ICM must have got a strange sample because of Easter. Much as I liked the idea of an ICM 4, it was rather un-expected, and similarly, YouGov putting the Tories on 41 seemed unlikely too.
i think I really ought to switch off and look again in a week.
(Yeah right…..)
@ SUE
OR of course it could just as easily be those who can’t bear another 5 years of Labour?
—————————————-
The interesting thing about that is, according to the G, the max vote potential of Labour is 42% & the max Tory potential is also 42%. So it looks like more of the soft voters would move left rather than right.
I found that very encouraging, generally speaking.
@Barnaby…………..I concede……….My first wife was a Scot, but I fell out with her dad when Winnie Ewing won Hamilton and he and his mates felt it inappropriate for an Englishman to join in the Whisky fuelled toast.
Further to my last point, I definitely do think that people are influenced to a large degree by their upbringing.
I come from a very close, extended family. My own situation has made me realise how lucky I am (and how unlucky many other young people/children are). It has undoubtedly made me more conservative when it comes to social views/thinking. For me, this election is less about who benefits personally from tax/money (I don’t benefit under any party anyway), and more to do with protecting/reinforcing traditional conservative views through a government.
@ SUE
I’m hoping for a Bonkers Holiday Poll from YG tonight; just to see how the pigeons do with a cat amongst them
“YouGov putting the Tories on 41 seemed unlikely too.
i think I really ought to switch off and look again in a week.”
Yeah, I expect the true figure was probably around 39 (with Labour’s at 29/30) because of the lack of Lib Dem exposure during the past week.
Amber
Thank you. Funnily enough I had seen the main article but did not spot the side links -myopia again I suppose.
The continued slight Tory lead on the economy is at first sight astonishing until you put aside your anorak knowledge and insert ‘It’s not the Economy stupid’ but ‘It’s their economy stupid’ and then it makes more sense and then you substitute ‘It what they hope for their economy’ and then you arrive at the correct result.
My favourite FGF will see a narrowing of that result, if it occurs of course.
@ KEN
LOL – Two of my brothers are married to English lasses; we give them a warm welcome whenever they venture North of the border.
Amber – As long as the cat stays away from MY pigeons tonight, I’ll be happy
“Amber – As long as the cat stays away from MY pigeons tonight, I’ll be happy”
If there is a repeat of the last few nights, just try to ignore them. XD.
Does anyone know if any polls are out tonight?
Prediction for tonight’s You Gov
Con 39
Lab 31
Lib 20
@Oldnat,
Hosie is on BBC news 24,
It strikes me that his message is very similar to labour… “road to recovery”.
Can we read anything into the SNP’s Westminster government preference from this?
@Amber………………….I’m a Tory, he never forgave me for that !
@ Howard
I also think it’s interesting that Labour are 11 points ahead on care for the elderly – especially since you mentioned the subject up thread as becoming increasingly important to people.
I’m not sure it’ll be a vote winner on its own – but it all adds to a respectable manifesto.
i got taken to a Labour party meeting at the age of 8.
My mum and Dad took Thatchers bribe in the 1980s
{ bought C H }
My sister never voted Labour.
I have voted Labour since 1970.
Own my own property alway worked over- time.
In 1983 – 1984 worked 7 days aweek for 52 weeks.
Ken – @Amber………………….I’m a Tory, he never forgave me for that !
Don’t blame him
(joke)
My prediction is 38 31 19
I can safely say that not one member of my family has ever voted
Anthony – Is there more than just the Yougov tonight? I assume the pollsters will want a base poll to start the election campaign with
@Éoin…………………Prisoners ?
@Ken
Alas, no….
In Ireland prisoners win elections lol.
@ SUE
I’m hoping for 38 35 19 – I would be laughing my socks off as everybody called it a holiday glitch.
Red Rag – I don’t know of any. You are right there will be lots and lots to start the campaign, but I expect most will have been put in the field this morning rather than start off on bank holiday Monday.
Populus is confirmed as fieldwork today and tomorrow, with publication tomorrow night. We had ICM and Opinium yesterday. We await news of ComRes, MORI and the newer companies.
I am worried that both parties will be inadequate when it come to care for the elderly – I think it’s a major problem. I can see it being a major problem in the decades ahead, especially with regards to who will fund the care.
The problem IMO is that pensioners who have savings/own a house are being asked (wrongly IMO) to lose their house/savings to pay for their care. Not only is this grossly unfair, but it will lead to problems in the future. By this, I mean that pensioners at the moment are a frugal lot generally, who often feel a deep sense of shame at getting in debt (wrightly/wrongly, it goes back to the olden days where debt was seen as extremely shameful). Tomorrow’s pensioners (and I particularly include my generation in this) are the opposite; many spend when if they don’t have it, and we live in an ‘entitlement culture’ where everyone has to have the latest gadget, car etc. I therefore predict that a lot of tomorrow’s pensioners will simply dispose of their savings and house weeks before they are due to receive care and have a blimming good spend up (and who could blame them really, after all we are penalised for having savings/owning a house in old age, and the care will provided for them anyway).
Family political alleagance all over the place, some are North Eastern tories, some SW labour, although I think the last of the labour ones are going across to torys this time.
Its funny we all seem to be surrounded by like minded individuals. Which I beleive blinkers our views….
YG tonight, 39/30/20
“I can safely say that not one member of my family has ever voted
”
My parents used to be Labour voters in the past, but have voted for the Tories since 2001. I voted for the Green party at the last 2 election (same as my sister), but we will both vote for the Tories this time round.
@Matt……………..Your comment definitely identifies the elephant in the room. The issue that no-one will address properly, we can’t afford to look after the current ageing generation let alone the next . It doesn’t bear thinking about, it’s frightening.
Has any polling been done on whether or not people are likely to change their vote in order to either avoid or create a hung parliament?
Some colleagues at work expressed the opinion some time ago that they were likely to vote Labour in the hope of avoiding a hung parliament (don’t follow the logic myself).
What is the prevailing thought out there if the Tories do get a number of polls around the ten percent lead level will people end up voting Tory to ensure stable Government.
Simonk, is that the confirmed YG poll or your prediction?
“@Matt……………..Your comment definitely identifies the elephant in the room. The issue that no-one will address properly, we can’t afford to look after the current ageing generation let alone the next . It doesn’t bear thinking about, it’s frightening.”
I know, care for the elderly is an issue that I have very strong opinions about. I just don’t believe elderly people in this country get a fair deal at all.
Amber
Yes i would have been interested in a breakdown of that result on elderly provision . But of course such a question posed brings up the subject that Matt covers, rather than the window between 65 and 85, say. I thought I would move it on to the results about the economy which, as I wrote, still cause me to exclaim ‘eh, pardon?’ when I first see them.
All the time my mother was getting pension credit, fuel payments, etc, she never showed an ounce of gratitude or pleasure, mainly I suspect because they were paid straight into her account and I managed that eventually. The bus pass was appreciated. Her generation had got used to the car and considered buses to be a provision for poor people and the handicapped. But my father’s death left her stranded. Now she sits in a chair staring into space so I don’t suppose she will worry about such matters any more, which is the point I made earlier.
A big issue, I wonder?
My prediction for YouGov:-
Cons 40
Labour 31
Lib Dems 20
Robert
“Has any polling been done on whether or not people are likely to change their vote in order to either avoid or create a hung parliament?”
Me! I’ve polled a sample of Me and found a 100% majority in favour of a hung parliament. I found that Me happens to live in a marginal seat and is a keen follower of the polls. Me has publicly stated that he intends to vote for whichever of the the two candidates is most likely to create a hung parliament.
Further questioning of Me revealed that he dislikes both the Thatcher-Major government and the Blair-Brown government, even though they were quite different. The problems with each were their more extreme policies. Things like the Poll tax and ID cards. A hung parliament will, apparently, either be a coalition or a minority government and in either case, the major party will have to get support of “others” to get legislation thought. These “others” are more likely to block the more crack pot ideas than back benchers of a party with an overall majority.
Hung parliament: Bring it on!
My NEW YouGov prediction for tonight:
Con 42
Lab 29
LD 19
Fortune favours the brave……my prediction for tonight…
C 41
L 29
LD 19
I am now in the hands of the polling Gods.
What on earth are you doing to this site?? The links seem to jump to a new style page format which is so uninspiring and dull and the ‘make your own prediction’ doesn’t work at all. A site like this should come into its own in the run up to an election and yet its just a mess!
Sorry, should of said prediction……
My personal opinion on care is that we need to make sure that we don’t punish people for making their own or their families care provision. So if I want to look after my parents I should not be penalised under the tax system, effectivly paying twice.
Same for a lot of things, I still have a final salery pension but I have paid an extra £7000 over and above what I would have to because of the tax change in 1997. Now if I lost my pension tax relief, something I understand is a “secret” labour policy then our pension will be come unafrodable and will close.
Why should people be punished for making individual provision ? Is that selfish ? My beleif is the state should only provide a safety net nothing more.
My You Gov prediction
Con 39%
Lab 32%
Lid Dem 20%
YG
T= 39
La=32
Li= 18
@ Howard
Some things are too important to be just about winning votes.
I hope you do not miss your mum too much now she is not the person you knew.
Are we all in denial, I know I am ! I just go about my business as if there is nothing wrong……….slight matter of a trillion or two, no problem, pass the wine list ! Cheers !
Sorry, been away for an hour or so.
Éoin,
Croydon has three constituencies: North (staunch Labour), central (very marginal) and South, which contains frightfully nice places like Coulsden, Sanderstead and Purley, and is much more like darkest Surrey, and is therefore solid Tory.
Surbiton,
Re: our respective sons – it sounds like you have it a lot tougher than me. I hope you get all the support and care that you need.
Not such good news for the Conservatives tonight from You Gov!!
Sunbeam-what are the figures then?
Is it not touching, that, notwithstanding the issues discussed, posters trust this community enough to share their lives with us in such an honest and open way, I know we’ll rise to the challenge.
Tories 39
Labour 33
Liberals 19
@ Colin Green
Same here – the dream result for me would be a Hung Parliament leading to a Tory/LD coalition with a change to fixed 4 year terms and a move towards a full PR system – none of this AV nonsense that keeps Brown in power forever mind!
Ken,
Hear hear. I thoroughly enjoy reading the views of people from across the political viewpoint spectrum here, and when you come across someone with whom you feel an affinity, or something in common, this is such an unusually open place that it feels perfectly fine to wave a friendly hand.
TONIGHT
CONS 40
LAB 28
LIB 20
I think its a real up hill struggle for Lab, may have been different if they had got rid of Brown for Alan Jonson.
I would say its all over barring a big own goal by the Cons.
Eoin Clarke
“Can we read anything into the SNP’s Westminster government preference from this?”
Nope!
Other than, in general, Scots are more “public/community” orientated than “private/self”. I have Tory friends here who seem far to the left of New Labour ones in London.
My prediction, Conservatives back below 40 @ 38, Labour regaining the momentum after calling the election and back to 32 and the Libs @ 20.
@ Ken
When it’s just the regulars, it feels a like a community.
I know it is great fun making predictions prior to a new poll being published, but can you please make it clear if you are making your own stab in the dark or if you are posting intelligence of the actual poll results – YouGov’s website seems to be down at the minute and it’s driving me crazy!
I predict YouGov to remain the same….
Maurice is this the real poll or your prediction?
I predict
con 39
lab 30
lib 20
I doubt there would be much impact from Brown calling the election.
@Amber…………Friendly tribes !
Just been on the Twitter Drum and the EricPickles/BlueNation Blog tune playing tonight is……
Con – 37
Lab – 32
Lib – 19
I have have the same sources as the twitterers from last night and those that have told us the results so effectively hours before the official announcement…..I get the result from looking at tea leaves and then rolling three dice to the tune of any Elvis No.1. song
No sorry its a prediction,
Sorry not being clear.
I have a question for you…
How are we going to communicate on election night? If we use this site to chat we’re going to crash it, and the political activists amongst us (out and about with their Blackberries and Iphones) won’t be able to load the pages anyway.
Is it worth setting up a chatroom, mIRC, Skype or something for 6th May?
I WOULD LIKE A HUNG PARLIAMENT.
AND ANOTHER ELECTION IN 6 MONTHS TIME.
I ENJOY ELECTION NIGHTS. I EVEN SIT UP FOR FOR BYE ELECTION RESULTS AND THE usa ELECTIONS.
GREAT CARTOON IN THE MAIL G.B. CRYING AT PALACE BECAUSE HE HAS TO ASK THE QUEEN TO CALL ELECTION .
My prediction for YG
Con 38
Lab 32
LD 19
No need to shout Alan, you’re amongst friends here (apparently).
I too am an election night geek. On holiday this week; the first thing I’ll do when I go back in on Monday will be to book May 7th off. Talk recently of ditching the all night counting and publishing the results over a couple of days had me screaming “Noooooooooooooooooooo!”
In 1992 I was a young(ish) uniformed constable, and I was on night duty for GE night. My very considerate Inspector, who knew what a geek I was, arranged for me to man the telephones so I could sit and watch TV all night. Gawd bless ‘im.
@ NEIL A
A chatroom would be cool. Does anybody know how to set one up?
Day off on May 7th for me too – have had a holiday following day every election since 1974
psephologist geeks of the world unite!
Skype or Mibbet (a type of IRC) are fairly easy. I’m not expert though. I’d be amazed if we didn’t have an ubergeek techie amongst us somewhere.
@ Dan Clarke – lead halved. Yesterday was a rogue. Sorry but don’t have numbers _ only that lead slashed.
@OLDNAT
Thought SNP preference was for Tory win to boost chances of a Yes in independence referendum – due this year isn’t it?
booked Friday 7th may off work today. Does that make me sad?
My prediction for YouGov poll tonight:
Cons 41%
Labour 30%
Lib Dems 20%
Not sure why Yougov poll will drop Tories down to 37% as some are predicting. Hope possibly?
Looks like Twitter-rumours rather than predictions.
On other (non-political) forums that i post on, the general viewpoint seems to be “i don’t think i can stand 30 days of this”.
@ Adrian
“booked Friday 7th may off work today. Does that make me sad?”
Ditto. Will have my Cider and peanuts ready. Mind you the Cider was really expensive. i wonder why?
C 40
L 32
LD 17
Sky news
I recently cancelled my oder for the Guardian after 35 years because of its Labour bias and too strident stance on climate change so might I suggest the Guardian poll is out of kilter because they employed some unemployed climate scientists to do the statistical analysis.
Sky News is reporting tonight’s YouGov as Con 40, Lab 32 Lib 17
Lead appears to be 8% per sky news
Good poll for Torys stay at 40 lab up to 32.
40 is the magic number
YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 6 Apr 5
CONSERVATIVES 40% 41%
LABOUR 32% 31%
LIB DEMS 17% 18%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5%