thetorydiary

In his live blog of David Cameron's speech on Thursday afternoon, Tim highlighted what appeared to be a guarantee that Liam Fox would be Defence Secretary if he forms a government next year.

In total, ten of the Shadow Cabinet were given a name-check by the party leader - plus of course there was the pledge that Iain Duncan Smith would be "responsible in government for bringing together all our work to help mend the broken society".

We can doubtless read too much into all of this, but there is an argument at this stage to say that the party leader name-checking you in his conference speech is a signal that you can expect to get the job you are currently shadowing for real in the event of a Tory victory.

There are of course certain behind-the-scenes roles (like Chief Whip) which would per se be less likely to get a mention in a conference speech, plus there are some seconds-in-command (like the Shadow Chief Secretary) whose boss alone got the namecheck for their portfolio.

Anyhow, for what it's worth, below are those who got a mention in the speech:

• "Instead of a revolving door at the Ministry of Defence with a second rate substitute in charge, we need a politician from the front rank, and in Liam Fox we have one."
• "This year, here in Manchester, our most successful, dynamic conference for twenty years. I’d like to thank everyone involved, the police who kept us safe and your chum and mine, Eric Pickles."
• "We’ve won the argument on the economy and debt as George Osborne showed in that magnificent speech on Tuesday."
• "Ken Clarke and David Willetts this week helped launch our plan to Get Britain Working. It is a plan to boost science, skills, self-employment a plan to improve training, technology, tax incentives for entrepreneurs."
• "The welfare system today sends out completely crazy signals. We have got to turn it around and with Theresa May and David Freud in charge we will."
• "With Andrew Lansley’s reform plans, we’re going to give the NHS back to people."
• "A Conservative Government, with Chris Grayling, with Dominic Grieve, will reform the police, reform the courts, reform prisons."
• "Big government has totally failed in state education and with Michael Gove we will get the radical change we need."
• "If we win the election, we will have as the strongest voice for our country’s interests, the man who is leading our campaign for a referendum, the man who will be our new British Foreign Secretary: William Hague."

And here are those who did not get a name-check:

In an interesting piece in the Independent on Sunday John Rentoul speculates at the unhappy prospect of David Cameron falling under a bus (driven by Gordon Brown?) and the question of a Conservative successor.  He is downbeat at what this would mean for the Conservative Party. I share his view that the Conservative Party would be weaker without David Cameron but I don't share his pessimism about who would succeed him.

William Hague does not want to be Tory leader again.  At least I don't think he does.  1997 to 2001 wasn't the happiest time of his life and in the period when he was off the frontbench he discovered greater joys than electioneering including book writing, marriage, learning to play the piano and making money.  A lot of money.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if he left politics in four or five years to write more books, as an ex-Foreign Secretary.  But if an emergency vacancy arose I think the party would unite behind him as the obvious choice for Tory leader.  He's consistently top of the monthly grassroots poll of Tory members, respected by his colleagues and increasingly commands affection from voters.  He's also understanding of what it means to be party leader.  He's up to the job.  I also believe that he's fully signed up to the balanced and broader conservatism of David Cameron.  He is not the William Hague of 2005; focused on Europe as the only issue which the party then had.  He's not the William Hague of 2003 who supported the Iraq war with gusto.  MkII Hague is softer and less dogmatic.  More of a managerialist.

I remain of the view that George Osborne is the second most powerful member of the Conservative Party - controlling tactical and strategic decisions with David Cameron - but he's not ready to be leader.  If David Cameron left the leadership for any reason and any time soon, William Hague would be his successor.

Tim Montgomerie

In demoting Alan Duncan earlier this week David Cameron displayed his ruthless side. Mr Cameron has again and again shown that he has the necessary steel to be a strong and determined leader.

Bigger and harder personnel decisions lie ahead and The Telegraph suggests that the shadow cabinet of 32 may be reduced to a Cabinet of just 20. Given that Mr Cameron may bring in a few 'greybeards' from outside it could be that more than 12 of the current shadow cabinet do not sit in the first Conservative Cabinet of the 21st century. The Telegraph's Andrew Porter speculates that "at least 30 current shadow ministers and spokesman could find themselves on the backbenches and not taking a ministerial portfolio." That's potentially a lot of unhappy MPs.

It is certainly true that the size of the Cabinet has grown under Brown. His 23-strong team ("strong" may not be the right word) is the largest Cabinet in history.  It is 50% bigger than the average for the last century.  Listed below is the current shadow cabinet (including their latest ratings by grassroots members) and in 'hot pink' the members likeliest to get to the real thing.

Doing the exercise illustrates how hard it would be to cut the Cabinet to 20 (and why I think it unlikely).  A few thoughts:

• A Cabinet without Eric Pickles or David Willetts would be a lot weaker. I wouldn't advise it.
• There are only two women in 'my' Cabinet of twenty. I can't see that happening.
• Cameron is also likely to bring in one or two 'greybeards'. Perhaps Peter Lilley, James Arbuthnot, Michael Howard. There's also Iain Duncan Smith and David Davis.

Two footnotes:

• Andrew Mitchell would not have been in my list a year ago but is now seen as a real success at international development.
• Question marks continue to hang over Liam Fox's future but my guess is that he represents too important a part of the conservative coalition to go.

In short - cutting the shadow cabinet to a Cabinet of twenty is a very, very tough ask.

Tim Montgomerie

Sir George Young replaced Alan Duncan as Shadow Leader of the House; and Alan Duncan took the job of shadow prisons minister in the Justice team from Edward Garnier. So what has happenbed to Edward Garnier?

I can now confirm that the Harborough MP has been promoted to Shadow Attorney General - a role which Dominic Grieve had been fulfilling at the same time as being successively Shadow Home Secretary and Shadow Justice Secretary. Mr Grieve will now be able to concentrate solely on his duties as Shadow Justice Secretary.

Mr Garnier returns to a role which he held previously under William Hague between 1999 and 2001. He spoke exclusively to ConservativeHome about his new role:

"There are growing problems with the CPS; the criminal bar is in a state of depression; there is no money to pay for criminal legal aid and a number of problems which need to be sorted out in order to have a functioning criminal justice system. So there's plenty of hard work needing to be done in the attorney's world beyond the more obvious things like advising the shadow cabinet on matters of law."

He also said that he would miss the role which Alan Duncan has taken on:

"I'll miss the prisons job - I did it for nearly four years and it has been the most interesting and challenging public policy work I have done. The prison system is in a state of terrible disrepair: prisons are overcrowded, the staff are demoralised and the buildings are old and difficult to manage as the prison population goes up daily. The Government has a policy vacuum in this area, so Alan has a fascinating job to go to. I assure him it is a job he will find utterly absorbing and rewarding."

Jonathan Isaby

Nick Robinson broke the news on the Today programme - and David Cameron has now confirmed it - that Sir George Young is to be appointed Shadow Leader of the Commons, a position which was left vacant last night after David Cameron's decision to move Alan Duncan from the post.

Sir George, a Cabinet Minister in John Major's Government, is the archetypal safe-pair-of-hands to deal with the MPs' expenses issue and other matters in the Leader of the House's portfolio, having been for the last eight years the chairman of the all-important Standards and Privileges Committee.

He lost out to John Bercow in the recent Speakership election, having quipped while making his case that he had always been "in the Conservative Party, not run by the Conservative Party". But his promotion today would suggest that his place is secure in a Conservative Government if we win the election next year, as one of those old hands with ministerial experience on whom David Cameron would be able to depend for sound advice on the workings of government.

Indeed, Sir George was the first name on David Cameron's list of five long-standing MPs who had "every chance of serving in a future Conservative government” according to the party leader when he was interviewed by the Daily Telegraph in July.

This is a very wise appointment by David Cameron (although I daresay the class warriors on the Left will delight in pointing out that Sir George is also an Old Etonian) and he has just spoken to TV cameras outside his home in West London to confirm the appointment.

Mr Camron described Sir George as "one of the most respected Members of Parliament" with "a long track record of reform" who would "really help to bring strength, experience and depth to a Cabinet".

Jonathan Isaby

Rumours have been circulating in Westminster over the past hour; the BBC now has confirmation:

He goes from being shadow leader of the Commons to shadow prisons minister.

Mr Duncan, who was responsible for the Tories' position on MPs' expenses, is said to accept he is now a "lightning conductor" for anger over the issue.

The Rutland and Melton MP agreed to leave the shadow cabinet after a meeting with Tory leader David Cameron.

A replacement is to be announced on Tuesday."

In the most recent ConHome Members' poll of Shadow Cabinet members, 81% were dissatified with Alan Duncan's performance.

Update: Alan Duncan released the following statement:

"This is a sensible decision. You have to be realistic about how difficult the expenses issue has been. What matters most is winning the election and David Cameron becoming the prime minister. I don't want to be a brake on that by making a difficult issue more problematic. I am very happy to get stuck into another job."

Tuesday morning update:

Sir George Young becomes Shadow Leader of the House

Edward Garnier, who was shadow prisons minister, is made Shadow Attorney General

Jonathan Isaby

27th August Theresa May calculates that the cost of worklessness since 1997 is £350bn.  There was coverage in The Sun and many other newspapers.

26th August: Andrew Lansley secures the Daily Mail splash with statistics exposing how many mothers are forced to give birth in hospital corridors, lifts etc.

26th August: Theresa May's revelations about the true scale of joblessness under Labour dominate the front page of the Daily Express.

23rd-25th August: Chris Grayling secured several days of coverage leading up to his speech accusing Labour of neglecting the poorest in society, claiming that parts of some British cities now resemble scenes from The Wire, and explaining the Conservative approach to tackling social breakdown. ConservativeHome coverage here and here.

21st August: Justine Greening highlights £100m tax hike for small businesses.

20th August: David Cameron sets out 12 reasons why NHS spending must continue to rise in real terms.  In this video he claims that the Conservatives are now the party of the NHS. 

19th August: David Cameron calls for crackdown on availability and price of super-strength alcohol.  James Brokenshire MP reviews the Conservative Party's policy options.

19th August: Nick Gibb wins the front page of The Independent for exposing how many schools "have become "no-go" areas for pupils taking traditional A-level subjects such as maths, science, history, geography or languages."

16th August: Michael Gove outlines Conservative plans to restore rigour to the system of exams and league tables, admitting there has been a "deterioration of standards". ConservativeHome coverage here.

15th August: George Osborne commends controls on bonuses in the non-nationalised banks.

11th August: George Osborne makes speech to Demos claiming that Conservatives are now the progressive party and that public service reform will protect frontline services from the spending cuts that are looming.  Report and video.

9th August: Andrew Lansley and shadow health minister Stephen O'Brien promote the Conservative proposals to allow patients access to their medical records. Details here and watch Andrew Lansley's interview on the Andrew Marr Show here.

7th August: David Willetts accuses Labour of playing politics with education as he exposes how the only building projects for further education colleges being given the go-ahead are in Labour constituencies. Report in the Telegraph here.

6th August: Grant Shapps gets top billing on BBC Radio 4's Today programme and Radio Five Live for his report into the postcode lottery that faces all people seeking IVF treatments.  Report here.

5th August: Liam Fox gets the front page of The Sun for exposing how eight armoured, mine-proof Ridgback trucks have been sitting dormant in Dubai for nearly three weeks, while troops in Afghanistan were waiting for them to arrive - during which time eight soldiers died.

4th August: Result of the Totnes open primary ballot produced very significant positive coverage in all media. Many people deserve credit for the initiative but Party Chairman Eric Pickles deserves top spot.

3rd August: Michael Gove unveils proposal to put previous exam papers online as part of project to track declining standards. Watch him explain his mission.