As the Welsh party gathers in Llandudno for its conference, it is timely that Political Betting is reporting the latest voting intention figures for Wales, as revealed in a YouGov poll commissioned by ITV Wales.
The parties are on the following shares of the vote (with 2005 general election performance in brackets):
Labour - 37% (42.7%)
Conservatives - 29% (21.4%)
Plaid Cymru - 14% (12.6%)
Lib Dems - 12% (18.4%)
This is equivalent to a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 6.6%, which - if repeated across every seat in Wales - would deliver five gains for the party. Even more could be gained if there is a higher than average swing in the battleground marginals, as is being seen across other polls.
Here is the list of the top Conservative targets in Wales, all of which are Labour-held apart from Brecon and Radnorshire, which has a Lib Dem MP; those in bold are the ones which would be gained based on the latest poll:
- Cardiff North
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Aberconwy
- Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
- Brecon and Radnorshire
- Vale of Clwyd
- Newport West
- Gower
- Bridgend
- Delyn
- Clwyd South
Jonathan Isaby