Salisbury
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21695 (47.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12403 (27%)
Labour: 8406 (18.3%)
Other: 3360 (7.3%)
Majority: 9292 (20.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25961 (47.8%)
Labour: 9457 (17.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 14819 (27.3%)
Green: 1555 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2290 (4.2%)
Other: 240 (0.4%)
Majority: 11142 (20.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 24527 (46.6%)
Labour: 9199 (17.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15824 (30.1%)
UKIP: 1958 (3.7%)
Green: 1095 (2.1%)
Majority: 8703 (16.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25012 (42.9%)
Labour: 10242 (17.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 18736 (32.2%)
Other: 4249 (7.3%)
Majority: 6276 (10.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Robert Key(Conservative) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: John Glen (Conservative) Educated at King Edward School, Bath and Oxford University. Strategy consultant and former director of the Conservative research department. Contested Plymouth Devonport 2001.
Tom Gann (Labour) Born Odstock. Educated at Bishop Wordsworth School and Warwick University. English teacher.
Nick Radford (Liberal Democrat) Works for a renewable energy company.
Nick Startin (Green)
Frances Howard (UKIP) Teacher. Contested Salisbury 2005
Sean Witheridge (BNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87369
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 22.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.2%
Owner-Occupied: 69.5%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 11.9%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.1%
“The seat has got smaller in area due to boundary changes which has taken a swathe of true blue country toward Dinton and Tisbury and lumped that in Wiltshire South West”
It has in addition removed the area around Bulford and Durrington to Devizes. Durrington votes quite strongly LD in local elections so this may cancel out any loss of true blue territory at the other end of the seat. The notional result, though inevitably producing a smaller numerical majority due to a smaller electorate does not suggest the percentage lead is significantly affected. Thrasher & Rallings notionals imply a very slightly smaller percentage lead – I personally have no view as to which is more likely to be correct, but the difference is small in any case.
It is interesting that in 2001 and 2005 the Conservative majority has been larger than it was in 1983 and 1987 but the reason for this is obvious, namely that in those earlier elections the vast majority of the anti-Tory vote united behind the Alliance candidate and Labour achieved a derisory vote. In the more recent electionsLabour has recovered as much at LD as Tory expense enabling the Tories to hold by a comfortable margin but with a lower vote share. Labour held up well in Salisbury in the 2007 local elections and while not doing quite so well in 2009 did manage to retain a couple of seats in the city quite comfortably, which compared fabvourably with their performance in most other southern towns. Nevertheless I would expect there to be less of a divided opposition witht he LDs gaining ground at Labour’s expense, therefore the results of future elections here are more likelyt o resemble those in the 1980s and as a consequence the Conservatives could well end up with a smaller majority justa s they did then. I incline to agree with cogload that the majority won’t top 10,000 here.
The point about the rather neutral impact of the boundary changes is well illustrated by comparing the county council votes cast within the new and the old boundaries of this seat
New boundaries:
Con 12898 45.2%
LD 9220 32.3%
Lab 2682 9.4%
UKIP 2647 9.3%
Ind 679 2.4%
BNP 378 1.3%
Old boundaries:
Con 16216 45.6%
LD 11384 32.0%
Lab 2682 7.5%
UKIP 3447 9.7%
Ind 1272 3.6%
BNP 576 1.6%
The vote share of the two main protaganists is barely affected. Obviously the main affect is on the Labour share which will be higher on the new boundaries as their strength lies mainly within the city of Salisbury itself. But even this effect is exagerrated by the figures above as Labour had no candidates in any of the wards which are wholly or partially moving out of this constituency
Are you local Matt?
………which is interesting because I’m pretty sure Labour has won Bulford in the past.
the …….. was supposed to follow on from Pete’s last comment, not Cogload’s question of course.
The names of those in the final of the Tory selection contest have already been posted here, but Conservative Home gave fairly detailed biographical details of the six:
“Victoria Atkins – Daughter of Sir Robert Atkins MEP, she is a criminal barrister who prosecutes serious, organised crime, ranging from international drug traffickers to tax and benefit fraudsters. She answered David Cameron’s call for new candidates to come forward last year after a “lifetime in the Conservative Party”. Read more on her website.
Ian Axton – A former presenter on ITV News and one-time managing director of Spire FM, he now runs his own media company operating commercial radio stations in Hampshire and Berkshire. He has lived in Salisbury for twenty years and is one of those who answered David Cameron’s call for new candidates to come forward last year. His wife works for retiring MP Robert Key. Read more on his website.
Fleur Butler – A councillor in Richmondshire, North Yorkshire, with responsibility for Housing and Economic Development. She was a candidate for the European Parliament last year in Yorkshrie and The Humber, having previously managed European funded projects, mostly for the community and voluntary sector.
John Glen – Has twelve years’ business experience working across different industries, having also served as an adviser to William Hague and as Director of the Conservative Research Department. He grew up in rural Wiltshire and has family links to Salisbury going back three generations. A magistrate, he contested Plymouth Devonport in 2001 and is a contributor to the CentreRight blog. Read more on his website.
Jeremy Quin – After an 18-year private sector career, culminating in becoming a managing director of Deutsche Bank, he was seconded to the Treasury in 2008 to help formulate the UK response to the banking crisis. He contested Meirionnydd Nant Conwy in 1997 an is a trustee of the Countryside Alliance Foundation.
Zehra Zaidi – A solicitor who has been based in both London and Brussels, she has acted as adviser to Andrew Mitchell, having worked as a development consultant for, among others, UNICEF and the British Council, on financial reform, governance, HIV and health issues. She was a candidate for the European Parliament in South West England last year with special responsibility for Wiltshire. She has written several pieces for ConservativeHome and has blogged in the past here.
(Atkins, Quin and Zaidi were all also finalists in nearby Devizes)”
They did have a councillor in the past. I have results for 1991 and 1995 when a Labour councillor was elected. It is rather strange though – as far as I can tell this was a two member ward but on each occassion there were only three candidates – one of each party. In 1991 the Conservative and Labour candidates were elected witht he Conservative polling well above the Labour candidate and in 1995 it was the Labour and LD candidates (in that order) who won.
Bulford is obviously very heavily influenced by the army vote which means both a low turnout and the possibility that Labour can do well when they are not in one of their anti-defence periods (as they were in the 1980s), as obviously the demographic (and often regional) origins of squaddies is of a type that would ordinarily provide fertile ground for Labour.
John Glen has been adopted as Conservative PPC for this seat. Report on Conservative Home.
Slightly surprising. Ian Axton withdrew very late indeed (around 11AM on the Sunday apparently) and as the “local” candidate one would have thought he would be favourite for the PPC nomination.
Oh well, Mr Radford knows who the Conservative opponent will now be. Roll on election time.
Interesting that Atkins MEP is now trying to get his daughter selected. He tried and failed to get his son in Southport.
Andrew Roberts is not the Labour PPC here, they have selected a new candidate. Wil confirm ASAP.
The BNP have a new candidate here – Sean Witheridge
Mr Wells, the new Labour candidate for Salisbury is Thomas Gann.
I had a friend, overseas, Bob Loader, who was a Labour Councillor in Salisbury at one time – not sure when, but probably in the 70s.
Have Alvediston, ‘Bourne and Woodford Valley’ ward, and Old Sarum always been in this seat? Old Sarum of course famously had its own ‘rotten borough’ seat for many years