Rother Valley
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21020 (51.9%)
Conservative: 9177 (22.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6342 (15.7%)
Other: 3935 (9.7%)
Majority: 11844 (29.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7647 (19.4%)
Labour: 21871 (55.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6272 (15.9%)
BNP: 2020 (5.1%)
UKIP: 1685 (4.3%)
Majority: 14224 (36%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7969 (21.7%)
Labour: 22851 (62.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4603 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1380 (3.7%)
Majority: 14882 (40.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7699 (16.7%)
Labour: 31184 (67.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5342 (11.6%)
Referendum: 1932 (4.2%)
Majority: 23485 (50.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Kevin Barron(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Gordon Brown (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90901
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 1.9%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 82.1%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 75.7%
Social Housing: 17% (Council: 14.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.5%
The local election results here are extraordinary!
However I still think Labour win win Rother Valley at the general election with a 7000/8000 majority.
I’m not so sure. The boundary changes her ehave been very helpful to the Conservatives.
The results again in full
Con 9840 38.9 %
Lab 7580 30.0 %
UKIP 2991 11.8 %
IND 2787 11.0 %
LD 1369 5.4 %
BNP 702 2.8 %
I dont think Labour will lose this seat but a larger than average swing seems likely and with Labour losing votes to other parties apart from the Conservatives they could drop badly and see their majority below 5,000
Dennis MacShane made some arrogant and complacent comments after the local elections which I think bodes well for the Conservatives here.
Other problems Labour has here include:
A successful and motivated Conservative party
Continued pro-Conservative demographic change
Very few Guardianistas and ethnic minorities
A Labour core vote infected by BNPism
Whoever wins Rother Valley (and Don Valley and Bassetlaw) the majority will be the lowest ever in this constituency.
Incidentally Kevin Barron is more than a year older than Chris Mullin. I wonder if he might decide to stand down too – it must be difficult to fight your first ever hard election campaign whilst in your mid 60s and have only opposition to look forward to even if you win.
Denis MacShane had a wonderful (!) piece in the Telegraph this week in which he argued that the Government should be looking to cut public spending and taxes. He even went on to suggest that spending could be cut without damaging front-line services because there is so much waste and inefficiency in government which could be cut.
Given that the piece was in teh DT, one might even have thought he was serious. until one realised that thsi was by a Labour ex-Minister.
Tories should quote this article extensively in both Rotherham and Rother Valley.
Rother Valley MP Kevin Barron recently lost his wife to a sudden illness. Much sympathy to him.
I believe it is him to whom Nick Robinson was referring to when he spoke about a grieving MP being dragged in to cast his vote on 42 days.
Local councillor Lynda Donaldson has been selected by the Conservatives here.
Rother Valley had unchanged boundaries in 1974, so direct comparisons across it are possible….
It’s easy to forget that some mining seats responded pretty favourably to Mrs Thatcher in 1979 (swing 7.2% in Rother Valley, although Labour’s vote changed little).
1970
Lab 44,322 71.8%
C 17,418 28.2
No Liberal
February 1974
Lab 52,532 73.4
C 19,058 26.6
No Liberal
October 1974
Lab 44,670 67.3%
C 11,893 17.9
Lib 9,828 14.8
1979
Lab 45,986 62.2%
C 19,984 27.1
Lib 7,937 10.7
I don’t really think this could be a Tory gain,
but a larger swing seems credible.
Joe
I had believed that this constituency was the most likely Conservative gain in South Yorkshire and the 2008 local elections were very encouraging.
The Euro results though were not as good and would have had, at a rough guess, Labour and the Conservatives almost equal.
I would say that Don Valley (where the Conservatives would have led by approaching 1000 votes and where an EDP Mayor was elected) and Penistone/Stocksbridge (where the Barnsley Conservatives again had excellent results) might now be better Conservative bets.