Hyndburn
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18287 (45.7%)
Conservative: 12783 (32%)
Liberal Democrat: 5684 (14.2%)
Other: 3234 (8.1%)
Majority: 5504 (13.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12549 (31.8%)
Labour: 18136 (46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5577 (14.1%)
BNP: 2444 (6.2%)
UKIP: 743 (1.9%)
Majority: 5587 (14.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12681 (33.2%)
Labour: 20900 (54.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3680 (9.6%)
UKIP: 982 (2.6%)
Majority: 8219 (21.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15383 (31.9%)
Labour: 26831 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4141 (8.6%)
Referendum: 1627 (3.4%)
Other: 290 (0.6%)
Majority: 11448 (23.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Greg Pope(Labour) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Graham Jones (Labour) Hyndburn councillor.
Andrew Rankine (Liberal Democrat)
Granville Barker (UKIP)
Andrew Eccles (BNP)
Kevin Logan (CPA) Born 1943. Retired vicar, journalist and author.
Christopher Reid (English Democrats)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92619
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 25.5%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 5.5%
White: 91.5%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 75.7%
Muslim: 7.3%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35%
Owner-Occupied: 74.5%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 10.3%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.2%
“Pete. Did u mean 43.6% was labours highest cc result anywhere? Only one of 5 where labour votes came highest. 1 of 3 where more labour councillors were elected than others.”
43.6% was the highest of any district and one of only five districts which Labour carried (the others were Oxford, Stevenage, Corby and Bolsover). Obviously this is not the same thing as the parliamentary constituency in many cases. In Preston the Conservatives were ahead in the borough as a whole and Labour won only 28% because that includes substantial areas that are in other constituencies. In fact taking the parliamentary constituencies the vote share was still higher here than in Preston (41.2% against 40.5%) and was surpassd only by Bolsover.
I was incorrect to state that this was one of only three constituencies which gave Labour a plurality. It was one of four. The others were Preston, Bolsover and Oxford East.
(The Conservatives were ahead in 212 constituencies, the LDs in 3, Independents in 2 and Green party in 1)
That should read LD 23
Pete I assume the Green constituency was Brighton Pavilion?
No it was Norwich South. This is the 242 constituencies which were covered by the local elections last June which were for the 27 county councils plus 7 unitaries (including 5 new ones which replaced existing county councils). Brighton & Hove is a Unitary council which did not have elections last year.
Thanks for that Pete.
The candidate list for Conservative PPC at this seat:-
1.John Barker
2.Karen Buckley
3.Paul Carter
4.John Moss
5.Mary Robinson
6.Janet Storey
The candidate will be chosen on 13th March – info from Con Home.
I have worked out the notional constituency result.
There are issues with this. The Constituency is Hyndburn plus the Haslingden wards of Greenfield and Worsley. The County Council division of Haslingden is the wards of Helmshore and Worsley so no help. 1200 semi land houses of Helmshore have recently been moved to Greenfield.
The Conservatives did not stand in Accrington North so there needs to be some adjustment here as well. However the Independent vote in this safe Labour area will split 1400/900 in favour of Cons. So in a 2 horse race it would have been Labour 2000, Conservative 1400. There have been no Tories at District (6 seats) in this area for nearly a decade.
The Parliamentary notional would have been
Conservative 11,250,
Labour 11,350.
12 months before the 2005 General Election, Hyndburn’s 2004 District results were
Conservative 9,310
Labour 8,256
At the General Election of 2005 Labour returned a margin of plus 5,500
At the Local Elections of 2000
Labour won 5 seats
Conservatives 13 seats
At the General election of 2001, Labour won by 8000 votes approx.
For Worsley and Greenfield I have split the vote notionally for 2009 as
Con 1300
Labour 850
Liberal 750
However a strong local Liberal vote of predominantly asian base (ex Labour) is vulnerable to swing with a outside Liberal to Labour 4 to 1. I have excluded this fact and used just the 1300/850 figure. Like Hyndburn, Haslingden previously returned a Labour CC and a Labour MP.
Have we got any details of any of the backgrounds of the conservatives on the short list?
Karen Buckley rings a bell – she stood in Manchester…..Blackley? I think? In 2005.
Pleased to be on the shortlist.
Check my blog for details.
John Moss
http//:mossjohnblog.blogspot.com
might help!