Hazel Grove
188
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19490 (50.2%)
Conservative: 11767 (30.3%)
Labour: 6295 (16.2%)
Other: 1273 (3.3%)
Majority: 7723 (19.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11607 (29.7%)
Labour: 6834 (17.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 19355 (49.5%)
UKIP: 1321 (3.4%)
Majority: 7748 (19.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11585 (30.1%)
Labour: 6230 (16.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 20020 (52%)
UKIP: 643 (1.7%)
Majority: 8435 (21.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15069 (30.5%)
Labour: 5882 (11.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 26883 (54.5%)
Referendum: 1055 (2.1%)
Other: 451 (0.9%)
Majority: 11814 (23.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Andrew Stunell(Liberal Democrat) born 1942, Surrey. Educated at Surbiton Grammar School and Manchester University. Prior to his election worked as an architectural assistant and political secretary to the association of Lib Dem councillors. Chester councillor 1979-1990. Cheshire county councillor 1981-1991. Stockport councillor since 1994. First elected as MP for Hazel Grove in 1997. Lib Dem chief whip 2001-2006, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for communities and local government 2006-2007. Awarded the OBE in 1993 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Annesley Abercorn (Conservative) born London. Educated at Highgate School and UCL. Researcher for Oliver Letwin.
Richard Scorer (Labour) born London. Educated at Edinburgh University and the University of Pennsylvania. Personal injury lawyer.
Andrew Stunell(Liberal Democrat) born 1942, Surrey. Educated at Surbiton Grammar School and Manchester University. Prior to his election worked as an architectural assistant and political secretary to the association of Lib Dem councillors. Chester councillor 1979-1990. Cheshire county councillor 1981-1991. Stockport councillor since 1994. First elected as MP for Hazel Grove in 1997. Lib Dem chief whip 2001-2006, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for communities and local government 2006-2007. Awarded the OBE in 1993 (more information at They work for you)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80404
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 98.2%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.7%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 20.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.7%
Owner-Occupied: 79.6%
Social Housing: 13.8% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 4.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.5%
If ASC thinks that Lib Dem’s prospects are looking bleak come the General Election, why does he/she not think that the Conservatives will do well in Hazel Grove next time?? It is demographically a Conservative seat was Tory for many years.
I think this will be close at the next election, but the Conservatives will be held back by their choice of a frivolous candidate who lacks experience and thinks campaigning is driving around in a clapped-out Routemaster bus!
I don’t think that this will be particularly close at the election, but I don’t see any justification for the comments made by Adam above about the Tory candidate??
‘I don’t think that this will be particularly close at the election, but I don’t see any justification for the comments made by Adam above about the Tory candidate??’
He comes from London Shaun, was educated there and from what I can tell has no connection with the area whatsoever which suggests whilst you might be optimistic about a respectable Tory performance here, the local association, or whoever is responsible for picking their candidate, thinks otherwise
I find it inconceivable that there isn’t a much better local candidate in what, as Joe says, is demographically a Tory area
You can’t write off a perfectly good candidate because hes not from the area. Thats just typical Lib Dem nastiness, if I may say so.
And whats all this “whilst you might be optimistic of a respectable Tory performance”? I’ve just said that it probably won’t be close! And what do you mean by respectable? I’d say that what we get in this seat now is fairly respectable anyway.
‘You can’t write off a perfectly good candidate because hes not from the area.’
Not necessarily but why go down this route
To be an effective MP you have to understand the area you’re representing and if you’re not from there you’re at a massive disadvantage at trying to do that
Although the Tories are generally ’slow’ I thought they at last recognised that selecting local people wasn’t such a bad idea
The seats the Tories did best in in 2005 was when they did have a local champion of the area – look at Gary Shapps in Welwyn & Hatfield for example
‘I’d say that what we get in this seat now is fairly respectable anyway.’
By respectable I meabnt within about 2-3,000 votes
If you think that less than 30% in a staunchly middle class area like this in a seat that prior to 97 was always Tory (even kif not by massive majorities) then again I think you belong to a different planet
‘You can’t write off a perfectly good candidate because hes not from the area. Thats just typical Lib Dem nastiness, if I may say so.’
Given the Tories campaign in the by-election in next door Cheadle they can’t complain when the address of their candidate is raised.
Not one of the Tories best prospects against the LDs.
I’d say a most likely result would be the LDs hold on by about 4,500.
Still, a long shot, for one day.
I met the conservative candidate a few weeks back in one of my politics lessons when he visited Aquinas College. I think it’ll be tough to beat the incumbant (stunnell) but he’ll put up a damned good fight for the seat.
He can count on my vote
Lib Dem hold, but it will be alot closer, 1000-1500 votes maybe less.
The Tory candidate was born in 1984. Seems a bit young – can’t really imagine him defeating Stunell.