Ayrshire North and Arran
2005 Results:
Labour: 19417 (43.9%)
Conservative: 8121 (18.4%)
SNP: 7938 (18%)
Liberal Democrat: 7264 (16.4%)
Other: 1465 (3.3%)
Majority: 11296 (25.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Cunninghame North.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6666 (19.7%)
Labour: 15571 (46%)
Liberal Democrat: 3060 (9%)
SNP: 7173 (21.2%)
Other: 1346 (4%)
Majority: 8398 (24.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9647 (23.5%)
Labour: 20686 (50.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2271 (5.5%)
SNP: 7584 (18.4%)
Referendum: 440 (1.1%)
Other: 501 (1.2%)
Majority: 11039 (26.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Katy Clark(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Philip Lardner (Conservative)
Katy Clark(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93235
Male: 47.3%
Female: 52.7%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 23.1%
Born outside UK: 2.3%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 70.2%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 16.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.5%
Owner-Occupied: 63.5%
Social Housing: 28.3% (Council: 23.6%, Housing Ass.: 4.8%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.2%
Neil I think its got more to do with our shocking performance in Scotland in 2005 than a Labour rigged boundary commission!
But your prediction seems reasonable.
One thing that always as puzzled me is why the Isle Bute was taken out of North Ayrshire in the 1983 Boundary Changes. Traditionally it was linked with Ayrshire from the First World War.
Of the old County of Bute, Arran and Great Cumbrae remained with North Ayshire. Yet, the Isle of Bute’s principle connection with the mainland is the ferry route to Wemyss Bay (just in Greenock and Inverclyde by 150 yards) while its ferry connection via Colintriave is either end on a minor B Road. Indeed Calmac recognises this in that it has in the last few years introduced two high capacity Ro-Ro ferries on the Rothesay-Wemyss Bay route.
There is stroing merit in the next Boundary Commission in bringing the Isle of Bute (electorate approx 5,500) back with North Ayrshire.Indeed it would be equally sensible to bring Gourock, Inverkip and Wemyss Bay into the Consituency. For instance it worth mentioning that the Church of Scotland’s Parish of Wemyss Bay and Skelmorlie crosses the Constituency Boundary as do many other local organisatios
Still anyones game for 2nd place, although I think the LD’s the less likely of the 3 to take that place.