Somerton and Frome
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 23831 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 23792 (43.2%)
Labour: 5809 (10.6%)
Other: 1602 (2.9%)
Majority: 39 (0.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22947 (42.4%)
Labour: 5865 (10.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 23759 (43.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (1.9%)
Other: 484 (0.9%)
Majority: 812 (1.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22315 (42.4%)
Labour: 6113 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22983 (43.6%)
UKIP: 919 (1.7%)
Other: 354 (0.7%)
Majority: 668 (1.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22554 (39.3%)
Labour: 9385 (16.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 22684 (39.5%)
Referendum: 2449 (4.3%)
Other: 331 (0.6%)
Majority: 130 (0.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: /p>
Outgoing MP: David Heath(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Annunziata Rees-Mogg (Conservative)
David Oakensen (Labour)
David Heath(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Barry Harding (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96719
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 4.5%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.9%
Social Housing: 12.2% (Council: 5.1%, Housing Ass.: 7.2%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.9%
My prediction;
Cons 26500
LD 25000
Lab 4000
UKIP 2000
Looks fair – I hope it’s a bit larger than that, but that’s a credible range.
Not sure Labour has much further to fall though, could still be around the 5,000 mark.
@matt is the confidence in swing from based on local factors, or uniform swing? Given the MORI findings on Con/LD swing I suspect it may well be much tighter tighter than that….
That said, I’ve no idea how all that Nancy Mogg press-silliness has played in these parts.
“The Times” has an article today on libDem seats in the South West that are libDem targets. They quote Ladbroke’s as offering 4-6 on the Tories. Given the small majority in this seat, and the odds quoted for other seats, this looks very generous (but I don’t put my money where my mouth is on such things). Any comments?
Not a Tory but have met Ms. Rees-Mogg and I think she would
be a good MP for the area; I’ll be voting for Heath as he is an excellent local MP, and has always responded to emails/letters. This is the first mention I have had of the Labour Candidate’s name, and I do hope he knocks at our door, as this former Labour voter of 32 years (Iraq put an end to that) would like a few words with him.
As for the Bennett male, well, words fail me.
David Heath’s demise has been predicted many times. That is all I am going to say.