Mid Dorset and North Poole
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 23605 (48.8%)
Conservative: 18336 (37.9%)
Labour: 4659 (9.6%)
Other: 1733 (3.6%)
Majority: 5270 (10.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16518 (36.6%)
Labour: 5221 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22000 (48.7%)
UKIP: 1420 (3.1%)
Majority: 5482 (12.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17974 (41.1%)
Labour: 6765 (15.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 18358 (42%)
UKIP: 621 (1.4%)
Majority: 384 (0.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20632 (40.7%)
Labour: 8014 (15.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19951 (39.3%)
Referendum: 2136 (4.2%)
Majority: 681 (1.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Annette Brooke(Liberal Democrat) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Nick King (Conservative) born 1965. Bournemouth borough councillor since 2005.
Chris Thompson (Labour)
Annette Brooke(Liberal Democrat) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Dave Evans (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80723
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 23.8%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.9%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.9%
Owner-Occupied: 82.9%
Social Housing: 9.7% (Council: 4.2%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.6%
If you go to Ladbrokes website, you’ll see that they have the Lib Dems as favorites to hold this seat.
I confess life was too short to do this check, maybe I should have done. But it appears I was right to be suspicious about the quote in the paper.
It basically seems to be that the LibDems can be reasonably confident of holding on if their majority in a South West seat is, as here, over 5,000
I wouldn’t be sure of that quote Frederic. This isn’t your typical South West seat.
It’s mostly suburban and, with the exception of parts of Purbeck, there is no Liberal tradition here.
Boundary changes also swap strongly and mildly Liberal wards in Alderney and Creekmoor for more marginal Wimborne and Colehill which return split delegations to both the district and county councils.
Mark my words our result here will be very very close.
Brook recently had a meeting with a ’senior’ Labour whip, again reinforcing the rumours she is cosying up to Brown in preparation for taking a junior position in a Lab-LD coalition after the election. Clegg still reported to be angry with her.
Very suprised to see in the Bournemouth Echo that Annette Brooke doesn’t consider her seat to be a marginal. When you look at all the hugely slashed Lib Dem majorities in last years’ County elections and the fact that she is being out-campaigned by her Conservative opponent, I would have thought that she would have been less blase and not taken her electorate for granted. Incumbency is no guarantee to winning here.
Although as you say the LibDem majorities in the CC wards were cut last year the LibDems still ouypolled the Conservatives and the LibDems won the 4 Poole wards in this parliamentary seat very easily in the 2007 elections . Will still be a comfortable win for Annette Brooks on my opinion .
Mark, the Poole wards only make up 40% of the constituency now, and Alderney, which was a huge Lib Dem stronghold has moved in boundary changes to Bournemouth West, being replaced by Wimborne & Colehill. In the CC elections last year the Lib Dems lost Wimborne and only just hung on to Colehill by about 55 votes. This seat, despite Annette Brooke’s over-confidence, IS a marginal and I would not be at all suprised to see it change hands, even if it is only by a slim margin.
I was a little surprise to read above in Simon Williams’ comment that Annette Brooke said she doesn’t consider her seat marginal. Politicians of all parties have a tendancy of talking up their chance of losing.. if they are ahead, or of winning if they are behind; The objective being to GET their vote OUT.
So, I googled The Bournemouth Echo (it doesn’t have much of a circulation in Leeds) and I think(?) I’ve found the article – I accept it might be a cut down version of an article in the printed version, but Ms Brooke only seems to be saying that she is getting a good reaction on the doorstep ‘My seat is not merginal’ is not reported….
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/5049956.Will_Dorset_marginals_help_decide_election_/
Chrisinthenorth, that particular quote was in a letter that Mrs Brooke wrote to the Echo and appeared in Tuesday’s edition on the letters page so I am afraid that it doesn’t appear on the on-line version of the paper.
Simon,
It’s also worth noting that the only reason the Lib Dems held onto Colehill is the strong personal support the councillor has. My parents live in the ward, are lifelong Conservatives, and will always vote by the person for local elections. I know a lot of people in Colehill and Wimborne who feel the same and I suspect those areas are not going to be secure for the Lib Dems.
Additionally Nick King, the Conservative candidate, has been campaigning heavily. I have heard nothing from the Lib Dem and could not have named her until reading this site.
Interesting that from the above the Lib Dems seem not to be making more effort in the new parts of the constituency.
I would have thought the bits they are losing (Creekmoor and Alderney) are very fertile ground for them, more so than Wimborne and Colehill.
The same disparity exists in local and national votes on the basis of candidate here in Purbeck. That and the fact the Tories seem at least to be trying (and trying bloody hard) this time could mean an interesting result.
There is reference on the Poole thread to a local by-election in this seat due to a LibDem resignation. Can locals tell us if this is likely to impact on the General Election?
Frederic
Short answer is no. It’s in Broadstone, the seat where Annette Brooke was the councillor (until 2003 – she remained a councillor for two years after she was elected MP – is that normal?)
The Lib Dem candidate, I understand, is the rather elderly chairman of the local residents’ association. I would therefore have thought it would be an easy hold for the Lib Dems.
Thanks DW.
Yes, it is quite normal for an MP to remain a councillor until they are next due to be re-elected. Alun Michael in Cardiff South, after his election in 1987, is another example that comes to mind.
In the very old days (e.g. before the Second World War) it was not uncommon for MPs to be councillors as well on a permanent basis. But councillors were not nearly as busy then, and come to that nor were MPs..