Devon Central
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 19843 (42.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 18099 (38.7%)
Labour: 5020 (10.7%)
Other: 3858 (8.2%)
Majority: 1744 (3.7%)
New seat: The extra Devon seat takes areas from Teignbridge, Tiverton and Honiton, Devon West and Torridge, Totnes and Devon North. The provisional proposals had included the Western suburbs of Exeter, but these were removed in the revised recommendations.
Profile: A large rural seat in the centre of Devon, includes small towns such as Bovey Tracey, Crediton, Okehampton, Chudleigh, Ashburton and Buckfastleigh. To the West the constituency includes part of Dartmoor.
Candidates: Mel Stride (Conservative) Educated at Portsmouth Grammar School and Oxford University. Entrepreneur.
Moira Macdonald (Labour) Born South Africa. Coordinator and speaker for Fawcett Devon.
Phil Hutty (Liberal Democrat)
Colin Matthews (Green) Born 1977. Managing director of a recycling co-operative. Contested Tiverton and Honiton 2005.
Bob Edwards (UKIP) Born 1946, Surrey. Educated at Wellington College. Former Royal Marines Officer. Contested Devon 1989 European elections for the continuing SDP. Contested South West England 1999 European elections, West Devon 2001, Tiverton and Honiton 2005 for UKIP.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81858
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 25.7%
Born outside UK: 3.9%
White: 77.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 74.6%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 21.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75%
Social Housing: 10.1% (Council: 7.2%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.2%
I think relying at local election results here is dangerous, as I know many people in the area who vote one way for a local election and another at a general.
I’m not saying that this seat will definitely go LibDem, but that I think the result will be close.
Lib Dems tend to perform better in local elections than national elections. I am not aware of any examples were the reverse has been the case.
Kieran – clearly that’s generally the case. LDs quite frequently come second nationally in the locals with 30% odd which they’d love to reflect at a general election.
But there are counterexamples at a local level – in North Norfolk for example, Lamb’s vote in 2005 was far higher than the Lib Dem County Council candidates on the same day and I am sure there are similar examples.
This is a bit like Westmorland and Lonsdale in reverse, John. Whilst the majority looks small it would indeed be a ‘miracle’ if the Lib Dems here turned around their fortunes so quickly now just as I believe it would be for the Tories in Westmorland.
Ludlow was a good example where the result in 2001 (and 2005 for that matter) far exceeded recent local election performances by thr LDs, but agree this is very much the exception that proves the rule
There are a fair few over the years, I mean if you look at places where Libs dont run the Council (as an example, some rural areas of Scotland and Wales dominated by Independents), but held/have won the seat.
One of the things that I do like about elections is that they do have some eccentric results from time to time. This – hopefully – will have some rather strange ones too.
Local Elections are one of the best guides we have – but things do not always follow this way.
This seat WOULD seem to be a ‘two-horse race’ though, to quote the overused Lib Dem Focus phrase.
Sir Norfolk –
You are right, there are examples of the Lib dems doing better in National elections compared to local results but this typically happens when the Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate is well known and has worked the patch. The problem for the Lib Dems here is that their candidate doesn’t live in the constituency (or in Devon in fact) & has been parachuted in at the last minute. I still say 7,000 majority for Stride.
James, Phil Hutty may not currently live in Devon, but according to the Lib Dem website, he was born and brought up in the county and spent most of his working life there, so he’s hardly an outsider.