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The people of Iraq have known a lot of fear in their lifetimes. And now, with the country's most important election just five days away, fear has become the currency of this campaign.

In a brazen attempt to herd voters, several major Shia leaders have whipped up a widespread fear of Baathists, the political henchmen of Saddam Hussein's regime, who are supposedly plotting a return to power.

At the same time, secular party leaders are raising the spectre of a new coalition of Shia parties that will deliver the country to Iran.

“I'm afraid that with all this fear-mongering we may return to the sectarian violence of a few years ago,” says Wathik al-Hashemi, a political science professor and commentator. “It may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

For more than three decades under Mr. Hussein, the mostly Sunni Baathists lorded over Iraq's Shia majority. With Mr. Hussein's fall in 2003 and the rise of violent resistance movements, the stage was set for a vengeful sectarian war pitting Shiites against Sunnis that raged until 2008.

Over the past two years, the violence has subsided and the political process has taken centre stage. But what had promised to be an open election in which a new political equilibrium might be established has sparked a dramatic rise in violence the past two months.

The campaign has deteriorated into a race that threatens a return to sectarian strife.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is attempting to rise above it all. He has disowned his religious party past and speaks the language of a nationalist. But Mr. al-Maliki is as much to blame for the fear in this campaign as anyone.

The leader of the Dawa Party, a religious Shia resistance movement, Mr. al-Maliki was a compromise choice for prime minister four years ago and hasn't looked back since. He made his mark by routing the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr and benefited from being in office when the Sunni terror groups were dismantled, largely by regional vigilante groups aided by U.S. forces.

Mr. al-Maliki's new political movement, known as the State of Law, did well enough in provincial elections last year that he thought he could run on his own in this election, spurning the efforts of Iran to unite the country's three main Shia parties.

But it hasn't worked out as well as he had hoped. Polls show the bulk of the vote pretty well divided among three blocs: Mr. al-Maliki's State of Law, the Iraqi National Alliance (made up largely of the other two Shia parties), and Iraqiya, an amalgam of several Sunni and other parties under the leadership of Ayad Allawi, a former Shia prime minister.

Whoever comes out on top won't be able to take power without the support of at least one of the other two big blocs, along with the Kurds or other smaller parties.

In the past few days, Mr. al-Maliki has indicated that it's the INA with which he expects to do business after the votes are counted. However, that's not how the Shia bloc sees things.

“Impossible,” was all that Sheik Jalal Eddin al-Saghir said when asked how likely it was that Mr. al-Maliki would be returned as prime minister.

Sheik al-Saghir, the imam of the venerable Bharatha mosque in Baghdad, is a leading member of the INA. While he says his Shia bloc is open to joining with any party, when it comes to the State of Law, the leader himself, Mr. al-Maliki, will have to go.

“There can be no dictator in a true coalition,” Sheik al-Saghir says.

Can Mr. al-Maliki count on support from the secular Iraqiya? Not likely.

Most of the people the Prime Minister denounces as Baathists are supporters or members of Mr. Allawi's political bloc.

If Mr. al-Maliki can't find a partner to form the next government, it opens the door for the other two blocs – the Shia INA and secular Iraqiya – to form a coalition of their own.

The INA has not made it clear who would be its nominee for prime minister, and the choice could make a big difference.

Which puts the spotlight on the third major bloc, led by Mr. Allawi, and the biggest surprise in this campaign.

Analysts here say that the public's hatred of sectarianism is so great that people turned away from religious parties in droves. Many of them have alighted on Mr. Allawi's Iraqiya party.

Running on a campaign of reconciliation between Shia and Sunni and preaching anti-sectarianism, the movement has done well in attracting support.

Mr. Allawi, a Ronald Reagan-like figure who talks plainly and has a reputation for not working too hard, was appointed Iraq's first provisional prime minister in 2004. He has spent most of his time lately visiting other countries in the region, including Iran and Saudi Arabia.

While that drew criticism from Mr. al-Maliki's supporters, who accuse him of raising money in Saudi Arabia to help fund a Baathist revival, it won him praise in other circles.

Sheik al-Saghir, who believes in good relations with Iran, admits to being fond of Mr. Allawi. “I was the one who encouraged him to join our alliance,” he says.

And teaming up after the election is a distinct possibility, he acknowledged.

“Of course, he would have to get rid of those Baathists,” Sheik al-Saghir says.