thetorydiary: Local government and local elections

Local government and local elections

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

David Cameron countenanced PR for Welsh local elections

The Conservative leader was reportedly willing to agree to proportional representation as part of a draft coalition agreement that Welsh Conservatives were seeking to thrash out in the aftermath of the last Cardiff Assembly elections. The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow quotes Vernon Bogdanor's record of what went on:

"There had been serious negotiations between the three non-Labour parties – Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats – with a view to forming a "rainbow" coalition. But these negotiations foundered, in part because the Conservatives would not countenance the introduction of proportional representation for local government elections. The Welsh Conservatives were, apparently, prepared to consider this proposal, and David Cameron, the Conservative leader at Westminster, was prepared to allow them to do so, but the shadow cabinet would not hear of it."

Earlier in the week Douglas Carswell MP blogged arguments in favour of an Irish-style PR:

"“Party list” PR would mean that instead of 7 out of 10 MPs having safe seats, it’d be 9 out of 10. Politics would become one giant “A list”. Yet, if we were to have multi-member seats, as in Ireland, combined with open primaries, law makers who didn’t listen to local people would be one term candidates. We’d have citizen law-makers championing the local interest in Westminster - and fewer professional politicians defending Westminster to their constituents. Multi-member seats would retain the constituency link – and produce clear working majorities, not endless coalitions. It’d ensure more choice when deciding who gets to be your next MP. And more competition, not just when opening fetes and holding advice surgeries, but when vying to champion local opinion."

Still worth reading is William Norton's 'Only losers like PR'.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 13:00 in Constitution and democracy, Local government and local elections, Localism, Wales | Permalink | Comments (37)

Saturday, August 22, 2009

How well did Conservatives use our years of Opposition?

"This is almost certainly the Conservative Party’s final summer in opposition: for Tories, the last of the summer whines. After that, one more party conference; and then they look forward to government. For them it’s about the future now: no time to linger over might-have-beens, no point in post mortems on opposition. But the rest of us are entitled to sneak a backwards glance. What kind of opposition have they proved? How did they handle those 12 years?"

So asks Matthew Parris in his column for Saturday's Times.

Here are my random observations (inspired by Peter Franklin's 'Ten unwasted years' piece written in May 2007):

We saved the pound. If William Hague hadn't have campaigned so vigorously against Blair on keeping the pound (and against Ken Clarke and the other Europhiles) Britain may have been in the eurozone now. By making it a party political issue (something that would have been impossible if Clarke had become leader in 1997 or 2001) Blair did not dare hold a referendum.

Without Tory support the Iraq war may never have happened. That's certainly my view and the view of the Bush White House. I suspect a good half of Tory members regret the position that Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Ancram, Michael Howard, Oliver Letwin and the rest of the shadow cabinet took at that time. I do not. I regret the way the war was prosecuted.

We have accepted key parts of the '1997 settlement'. We have not struggled against all that Labour has done. We have accepted that devolution is here to stay. We now support Bank of England independence - if not the tripartite regulatory regime that accompanied independence. We support the minimum wage and 0.7% of national income being spent on overseas aid. We support the rights introduced for gay Britons although are more careful than Labour about protecting the freedoms of churches and others to disagree with homosexuality.

Continue reading "How well did Conservatives use our years of Opposition?" »

Posted at 08:58 in Big Beasts, Blogs, websites, e-etc, Candidates, Civil liberties, Compassionate conservatism, Europe, Ex-leaders, Local government and local elections, War on terror | Permalink | Comments (97)

Monday, June 08, 2009

No room for complacency but plenty of grounds for optimism

Somewhere, deep inside CCHQ is a room called complacency. It is full of champagne, balloons and party hats but it's a room that is under strict lock and key until George Osborne decides otherwise.

Professor John Curtice and many other commentators are pouring cold water on the Conservative Party's electoral performance of recent days. 'Not quite good enough' is the conclusion of talking heads across the media. Tory strategists don't mind. They don't like any complacent talk of victory. They want every Conservative activist and donor to strain every sinew until the last polls have closed on General Election day. This caution comes from two decades of losing elections. Most of the people who advise David Cameron have tasted defeat too many times in the years since 1987 to quite believe that victory is sure. Over recent days their attention has turned to the Norwich North by-election. They are conscious that they are now battling against inflated expectations as much as Labour.

All this aside, Thursday's elections do give the Conservative Party many grounds for optimism.

In the wake of expenses-gate they were relieved that the Conservative Party's share of the vote actually went up in the European Elections. [Pictured on the right is David Cameron in Wales earlier today where the Conservatives topped the poll. Mr Cameron is photographed (by Mark Jones) with Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne and new MEP, Kay Swinburne].

But if the European Elections were a little messy but Cameron and George Osborne are determined not to be spooked by UKIP. They saw Michael Howard knocked off course by UKIP's success in 2004 but they also saw that it did not translate into anything at the following year's General Election.

What gives the Tory leadership most confidence is the county council results. CCHQ believes that the county council contests are a more accurate indicator of the outcome of the next General Election. Unlike the European Elections they were first-past-the-post contests fought largely between the three established parties. In Bedfordshire, Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Derbyshire the Conservatives fought Labour head on and won convincingly. Even more encouraging were the head-to-head victories against the Liberal Democrats across the west country. CCHQ believes that it now has the campaign machinery and moderation of message to significantly erode the Liberal Democrats' parliamentary representation. The decline of the Liberal Democrats was hugely under-reported at the weekend. Even their 'victory' in Bristol masked a decline in the percentage of Bristolians voting for Nick Clegg's party.

Tory strategists also know that Labour has ceased to exist as a meaningful campaigning force in large parts of the country. Eric Pickles has a two to one rule. Every lost councillor actually means the loss of that councillor's husband/ wife/ friend too as a party activist. Labour finished fifth in many parts of the country on Thursday, it's poisonously divided at Westminster, up to its neck in debt, and without a policy vision. The Conservatives have a year to go but they have good reason to be cheerful.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 15:04 in CCHQ, Conservative strategy, Europe, Local government and local elections, Wales | Permalink | Comments (32)

Friday, June 05, 2009

Much more beautiful than Caroline Flint

9am on Sunday, updated map:

***

From the BBC.

Posted at 17:47 in Local government and local elections | Permalink | Comments (58)

Headline observations

I'm keeping the live blog going with unfolding news but I'm going to post headline observations here:

Number 3: Although the Tory share of the vote is a disappointing 37% (and entirely explained by UKIP, Greens, BNP) the Tory targets (Devon, Somerset, Staffordshire, Lancashire) are all coming through. That's more evidence that the party's campaign machine is strong.

Number 2: Eric Pickles has a rule of thumb that a party loses two activists for every councillor it loses. Today will see another big depletion in the Labour activist base. It doesn't show up in the headline numbers but Labour is falling to third and fourth places in many parts of the UK. That means they don't have much of an infrastructure for the General Election and it's going to take more than one heave for them to come back in a whole range of seats.

Number 1: We know it's a bad set of results for Labour but it's also a bad set of results for the Liberal Democrats. NOTHING is giving the Tories more joy here than the victories over Nick Clegg's party in Devon and Somerset. The gains in these two counties suggest that we're not just facing Labour unpopularity but many positive votes for the Conservatives. These results are going to force Liberal Democrats on to the defensive - retreating into their existing seats.

Posted at 14:28 in Local government and local elections | Permalink | Comments (48)

Friday elections and Labour leadership crisis blog

6.15pm: Very bad results for the BNP

5.55pm: TORIES HAVE WON NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

5.13pm: OMIGOD! Glenys Kinnock is new Minister for Europe.

5.13pm: Tory victory in North Tyneside confirmed.

5.12pm: Flint's resignation confirmed in middle of Brown's press conference:

5.00pm: Rumours that Caroline Flint is resigning.

4.58pm: Two more Tory gains from the LibDems in North Yorkshire (in Airedale & Whitby/Streonshalh).

4.42pm: Lord Adonis to be new Transport Secretary.

4.39pm Tony McNulty to leave government. Another expenses-gate victim.

4.31pm: More misery for the LDs... Conservatives making big gains in Cornwall

4.28pm Andy Coulson and Stephen Gilbert holding meeting with Chloe Smith NOW. Fast work.

4.25pm Blairites now see James Purnell as their new hero, says Sam Coates

4.24pm Guido reacts to the political resurrection of Peter Hain

4.17pm Tories win control of Warwickshire

4.15pm By-election imminent in Norwich North after Labour MP Ian Gibson announces immediate resignation

3.54pm Funniest post of the day award goes to James Forsyth:

3.50pm: This is the FIRST government ever not to control a county council.

3.48pm: Andy Burnham is new Health Secretary. Margaret Beckett leaving Government in huff apparently.

3.35pm: TORIES HAVE WON THE RED ROSE COUNTY OF LANCASHIRE AND DERBYSHIRE. DERBYSHIRE ON AN 18% SWING!!

3.21pm: Shadow Secretary of State for Wales Cheryl Gillan MP reacts to Peter Hain's return: “I am very sorry to lose Paul Murphy as Welsh Secretary. He is a good man with whom I have had a constructive, cordial relationship. Peter Hain’s appointment is another sign of Labour looking to the past when what we need is a fresh start. Instead of looking forwards they are turning to the past. Peter Hain has hardly been a cheerleader for the Brown government, yet is more than willing to take a job off him.”

3.18pm:

3.06pm: Tories ONE SEAT away from winning the Red Rose County of Lancashire!

3.06pm: Liam Fox attacks musical chairs of Defence Secretary: “It’s very clear from the musical chairs at the top of Government that this is all about Labour’s political gain and not about the wellbeing of our Armed Forces or our national security. Four Defence Secretaries in four years is far from the stability we need in such a crucial department. The Armed Forces will be saddened by the departure of John Hutton, who they regarded as an interested and competent Defence Secretary. Yet again, our Armed Forces seem to be a long way down the Government’s list of priorities. Our troops have every right to feel let down by this Government, which shows such contempt for them.”

2.52pm: More misery for the Liberal Democrats. They've lost two seats in Harrogate to the Conservatives in large swings.

2.47pm: "Bookie Paddy Power believes Gordon Brown is toast – and are paying out on the Prime Minister leaving his post before the end of August. Paddy Power’s betting on when Gordon Brown would no longer be PM has gone into overdrive with Brown’s odds to be gone before the end of August repeatedly being cut in the last 24 hours from 5/4 to just 1/4. Whilst politicians and pundits are queuing up to suggest the PM’s time is nigh, the public have decided it’s all over already. They’re piling in like there’s no tomorrow and, for Gordon Brown’s leadership, its looking like there might not be. Punters stand to collect £120,000 in the early payout. Paddy Power said: “In political terms the Prime Minister is Brown Bread - it’s the only bet punters are interested in today so we’re running up the white flag and paying out. Now it only remains to be seen if Gordon Brown does the same.”"

2.44pm: Danny Finkelstein is running a very good rolling blog.

2.38pm: Every Conservative's least favourite Liberal Democrat - Evan Harris - is seeing his Abingdon backyard turn blue in the council elections.

2.35pm: The FT Westminster blog has unearthed a juicy quote from 1992 from Sugar on Brown: "“I have noted with disgust the comments of a certain Mr Gordon Brown who has accused me of doing well out of the recession….I do not know who Mr Gordon Brown is. Excuse my ignorance, but I don’t. Whoever he is, he has not done is homework properly. The man doesn’t know what he is talking about….Labour offers no route out of recession.”

2.30pm: Liberal Democrats in retreat in Guildford constituency - which has a notional CON Parliamentary majority of 89 under new boundaries. Liberal Democrats lose two county seats in central Guildford (Guildford South, Guildford South East), and with a large increase in the CON majority in the LD's target (Worplesdon).

2.13pm: Bob Ainsworth MP is new Defence Secretary.

2.03pm: The Guardian has the briefing that Labour MPs are speaking from.

1.56pm: Pete Hoskin: "Rumour on the Beeb that Caroline Flint will be made Health Secretary - the price for not following the lead of her fellow "Pugin Room plotter" Hazel Blears?"

1.55pm: Jim Knight likely to be new Defence Secretary according to Sky News

1.54pm: Labour lose most of their seats in Worcestershire

1.50pm: Tories make NINE gains in Derbyshire so far.

1.47pm: Tories making big gains in Lancashire. The county's Labour leader has just lot their seat.

1.46pm: David Cameron off to Devon to celebrate the victory over the Liberal Democrats there.

1.11pm: Talking to Eric in his office.

1.08pm: Eleven gains in Devon for the Conservatives, ten from the LDs. DEVON SET TO GO BLUE.

12.58pm: Tom Garrod, a nineteen year-old Conservative with cerebral palsy has won in Great Yarmouth.

12.51pm: Surrey is now a Labour-free zone.

12.32pm: Doncaster Mayoral final will be between English Democrats and an independent. So much for a Labour stronghold!

12.30pm: Two reports from the field...

From Christopher Pincher, our Tamworth candidate, "Tamworth has counted and we won all six county seats from Labour in Tamworth borough. Labour now has no county councillors in the seat. We do not need to win any more county seats across Staffs to take control for first time since 1981. Labour and Brian Jenkins looked shell shocked."
From Charlie Elphicke: Tories won all four Canterbury seats. Labour beaten into fourth place in every seat, behind Greens.

12.24pm: First results from Derbyshire; Two Tory gains - one from Labour, one from the LibDems.

12.22pm: I've written for The Guardian: "Behind closed doors, Labour MPs hardly have a good word to say about Brown but they are afraid to strike – afraid to follow James Purnell's breaking of the ranks last night. Some key cabinet ministers are holding back for fear of a Johnson coronation and what that means for their own leadership hopes. The parliamentary Labour party has shown it can't run the country and it is now looking like it can't run a leadership coup."

12.21pm: Only one Labour councillor left on Hampshire County Council.

12.15pm: TORIES HAVE WON SOMERSET FROM THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS. Eight gains. It's the result people here at CCHQ are most pleased with so far.

12.14pm: ConHome has seized control of the Party Chairman's office:

12.05pm: Conservatives predicted to win all four Stafford seats.

12.02pm: John Denham is new Communities Secretary.

12.01pm: Sam Coates identifies five weaknesses of Brown.

11.56am: Siobhan McDonagh MP tells the BBC that Cabinet ministers who are pledging loyalty to Brown are saying different things in private to her. Qu'elle Surprise!

11.52am: Hutton insisting he isn't resigning because he wants Brown to go.

11.47am: TORIES WILL WIN NORTH TYNESIDE PERHAPS IN FIRST ROUND. BIG NORTHERN VICTORY FOR THE PARTY.

11.42am: Now five Tory gains in my birth county of Devon (four from LDs).

11.36am: Four Tory gains in Nuneaton.

11.34am: BBC reporting that John Denham is new Health Secretary.

11.30am: Four Conservative gains in Barrow.

11.24am:

Three gains in Devon, two from LDs
Two gains in Somerset, one from county's Labour leader
Staffordshire looking extremely positive (including key marginals of Staff Moorlands and Stafford).

11.07am: The BNP is performing all to well in Hertfordshire.

10.49am: Harry Phibbs thinks Labour's losses in local government are set to be bigger than first thought: "I suspect when the scale of these results sinks in they could be of more importance than the departure of James Purnell in terms of the pressure on Gordon Brown to go."

10.27am: Reports that Hutton is leaving Cabinet. Interesting. As James Forsyth reminds us: Hutton predicted that Brown would be a 'fing disaster as PM. He was right on that one. Hutton, Purnell and Blears were the leading Blairites. Now all three are gone.

10.18am: ConHome launches the Staying or Going Meter:

We'll update the meter as the day goes on but at this time I think things have swung somewhat in Brown's favour since William Hague told Sky News that he had a 50/50 chance of surviving. First noone has followed Purnell and second Brown looks like he is going to be able to construct a serious Cabinet. Darling stays (Balls as Chancellor might have triggered the end) as does David Miliband. Alan Johnson becomes Home Secretary. This is all good news for the Conservatives. Brown limps on more wounded, his authority undermined and Labour even more disunited.

10.05am: Photo of the BBC News stage in Westminster:

9.12am: About to do News 24 and then an article for The Guardian. Will blog lightly until 11am-ish. Do check out Harry's local government posts, including the re-re-election of Hartlepool's monkey.

8.22am: Fraser Nelson is predicting a big day for the Balls-Cooper duo. Cooper may replace Purnell at DWP.

8.13am: Nick Robinson says reshuffle happening this morning to show Brown has a strong, loyal Cabinet. Downing Street said to be pleased that James Purnell's resignation has not triggered other attacks on the Prime Minister.

7.42am Labour MP Barry Sheerman tells News 24 that Downing Street is urging his constituency Labour Party to discipline him following his call on Brown to go.

7.37am: Alan Johnson MP issues statement which says that he continues to believe Gordon Brown is right man for the job but declines to criticise James Purnell.

7.36am: Interviewed on Sky News William Hague says he thinks it 50/50 whether Brown will survive. He says there is more "venom" in Labour infighting than Tory infighting in 1990 when Margaret Thatcher was brought down. Then the Tories were divided over policy. Today Labour is divided on personal enmity.

7.22am: Geert Wilders whose Freedom Party has, according to exit polls, won 15/16% of the Dutch vote - likely to produce 4 MEPs - tells Today that he'll consider reapplying to enter Britain. He tells his BBC interviewer that he learns that Jacqui Smith has resigned because of "porno videos" and hopes that this will mean his application will be viewed by a fresh pair of eyes... If the Dutch can have exit polls now, why can't we?

7.16am: Sky saying Yvette Cooper likely to receive big job in a reshuffle that will begin this morning.

7.10am: Professor John Curtice tells Radio 4 Today that early indications from local elections indicate that UKIP and the Greens will advance in the Euro Elections when results are announced on Sunday.

Former Tory MP Michael Brown jokes on Sky News that David Cameron should go to Downing Street with an oxygen supply and resuscitation mask in order to keep Gordon Brown's premiership alive. Iain Dale, on the same programme, jokes that the Labour leader the Tories really would like is Harriet Harman.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 06:21 in Local government and local elections | Permalink | Comments (180)

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Local elections live blog

6am:

Labour lose all five seats it was defending on Essex County Council. Also in Essex Tories win three seats on Harlow, increasing the party's grip on the bellwether new town.
LibDems gain Bristol, Labour lose 8 of 10 seats it was defending (see LibDemVoice)
Tories on course to win Staffordshire, gaining SIX seats in Tamworth
Tories won 54 of 66 seats on new Central Bedfordshire council. Labour failed to win a single seat.

12.55am: CCHQ now reporting that Labour may lose all ten of the seats it is defending in Bristol.

12.45am: CCHQ tell me that we have won St George East, Bristol, from Labour, with a swing of more than 9%. Hurrah!

12.05am: Good reports for Conservatives from Staffordshire.

11.15pm: Sources predict Labour will be disappointed at outcome in Lincoln.

Should have early impressions by 11pm and, if we're fortunate, some projections at 1am.

Posted at 23:03 in Local government and local elections | Permalink | Comments (123)

ConHome's election coverage from inside CCHQ

The blog will be up and running from 10pm tonight but not into the early hours. We'll get most local election results tomorrow and we'll be live blogging them from inside CCHQ and I'm hoping to get new photographs of Eric Pickles' braces. If I behave myself I'll be back in CCHQ on Sunday for coverage of the European Election results.

I also draw attention to the live show that Iain Dale will be running on PlayRadioUK.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 17:50 in Local government and local elections | Permalink | Comments (38)