What’s this going to do to the campaign?
December 21st, 2009Why’s Cameron taking such a gamble?
So now we have it. British election campaigns are never going to be the same again. For the long push by the broadcasters to get live TV debates between the three main leaders seems to have succeeded.
ITV will host the first chaired by Alistair Stewart; Sky has the second with Adam Boulton while the final one will be a BBC affair with David Dimbleby in the che chair. Each programme will last ninety minutes.
There’s little doubt that this will shape the entire election campaign and there’s also little doubt that these will become a permanent feature of UK general elections.
The big winner from this is Nick Clegg who’ll gain a lot by being seen on the same platform as the other two. That fact has the potential to hurt both the bigger parties - particularly Labour.
But the big loser could possibly be David Cameron who, in my view, has made a seriously bad decision.
When you are in as strong a position as he is then the last thing he should have agreed to is something that could be a game-changer. Anything could happen.
As we’ve seen in the US how the candidates are seen and react with each other can matter more than what they say.
Mike Smithson
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first amongst equals.
POGWAS?
This is a big gamble by David Cameron. If it works, he might obliterate the other two parties. If it doesn’t work, it might undermine Conservative chances of victory. He didn’t need to take this risk.
But perhaps he is doing it because he thinks that it is the right thing to do? Which it is, by the way. Elections will never be quite the same again.
Always assuming, of course, that the SNP aren’t crazy enough to seek an injunction.
Pity they’re letting that useless waste of meet Dimbleby host it.
Why can’t the BBC get somebody competent and insightful instead?
I’m still not convinced these will go ahead.
Once the idea was floated, there was no way Cameron could refuse. Indeed it would have been a bigger gamble to say no at this stage. How can a man who is afraid of debating with Gordon Brown possibly be Prime Minister?
Mike,
only two possible reasons why bottler would agree to it:
1. He has no intention of being around for the GE.
2. He will cop out at the last minute with some health or other excuse.
The man is more lame than Tonto’s horse!
There was never any chance whatsoever that David Cameron would not agree. He just doesn’t do cowardice; hiding is simply not his style.
No one can be seen to refuse to take part in such a debate once mooted.
The risk of refusal will always be higher than the risk of taking part.
5 Ditto - who kicked off this story?
@5:
Me neither. Gordon will turn frit, and pull out on a technicality.
“As we’ve seen in the US how the candidates are seen and react with each other can matter more than what they say.”
And do we believe that GB will be able to pretend to be a human being for a few minutes? His visceral loathing of Cameron, so often on display at PMQs, will be hard to conceal. A lot of moderates in the US were put off McCain in the first debate, when he couldn’t bring himself even to look at Obama once.
The most interesting issue from my point of view is whether the chairmen will “do a Bercow” and allow Brown to get away with saying what he likes.If they challenge him hard - and remember, he’s refused to be interviewed by anyone other than Labour-supporting daytime TV presenters or children for over a decade - then this could be a good move for Cameron. But it’s definitely a huge risk.
He’s calculating that it will shift votes from Broon to Clegg, thereby increasing the Tory majority. He’s right.
4, Neil would be good. I imagine Dimbleby will be mediocre or rubbish.
It is a gamble, but Cameron could not back out after being so vocal without looking frit.
This must be bad for Brown. Cameron and Clegg have been meeting real voters up-and-down the country for the last 2 years. And Brown won’t have all his back-bench MPs behind him howling down the opposition like he has at PMQs.
Incidentally, I’m in a hugely bad mood. I correctly guessed that ITV would get the first debate, but the bounders have chosen Alistair Stewart rather than Sir Trevor (backed by YT at 100/1 - 100/1!). Could someone please have a word in their shell-likes?
So the beeboids again get the last word chaired by a tremblebody.
Stitch up as per usual. Cammo should demand that they draw lots for the running order.
I hope this does not mean the election will be decided by who looks best on the telly. It should be about policies, and Labour’s record in Government.
Its a risk, but only a small one, assuming the “debates” are managed properly.
Over 4 1/2 hours, there’s no way Brown won’t blow his top. He’s probably never had 4 1/2hours of real direct feedback about how rubbish he is in his entire life, so how’s he going to cope with this?
If Clegg’s got any sense, he’ll work out a way of helping Camo to crush Brown and hence labour, creating a genuine chance that the libs could get exceeding close to 2nd largest party.
I see the SNP are alreday complaining. No doubt Plaid Cymru and the various Ulster parties will want a slice of the action.
16: I agree. I would love Labour to be judged by what they have done for (to) the UK - and TROUNCED.
repost as it’s relevant to this thread
re 241 RobD give me one good earthly reason why Salmond must be in these debates? I thought we were electing the government of this country rather than some regional debating chamber. As the SNP are only going to be putting up 59 candidates, it’s not going to be them is it?
338.I think some of you on here are guilty of projecting your prejudices onto the TV debate from PMQs. Surely it will be a different format and more importantly a much different audience.
Most people when they see PMQs just see the selected soundbites that the BBC or whatever TV outlet select. In an election debate this will not be the case especially if it is live, the tories are not going to allow Labour/LD supporters to swamp the auidence if they have anythng about them or indeed if an audience is involved.
There will be no arselicking Labour MPs to ask “freehit” questions - I do think Brown will fail big time. It is lose-lose for Brown.
I think Brown will end up being verbally attacked like Nick Griffin but without the sympathy that Griffin got from some parts of the media for the way QT used a blatently unbalanced audience. Where are the debates going to be held? Glasgow, Liverpool and Newcastle?
If Brown thinks he can get out of it last minute on doctors advice due to retenal problems he will have been sussed by me and many others as Brown likes to go in front of the hot conference lights but bottling a debate last minute on those grounds would be pathetic.
I do not buy the “Cameron has nothing to gain by this” argument. If the outcome of the GE is in the balance, which of course it is, what he has to gain is a working majority in the H of C. Quite a big prize. Imagine if he didn’t participate, and narrowly missed a majority: he would be haunted by “what if I had?” thoughts for ever after just as Gord I imagine is haunted by “what if I had gone to the country in 07?” every night.
I think the fallacy here is that everyone is talking about expectations. Normal people will be interested in the debates when they happen but otherwise are largely uninterested and expectation-free, just as I will watch the test matches avidly next summer but at the moment don’t know who we are playing or what our prospects are, and can’t be arsed to find out.
16, I agree with you.
18, a nationalist whinging? Surely not.
Oh and I don’t think they’ll happen either.
I think they should all do, one programme in Scotland and Wales, with the SNP & PC, it doesn’t look fair otherwise.
Going in as the underdog Brown has nothing to lose, Cameron certainly has. Winner before the off is Clegg he’s going to get attention for the Libdems.
One thing you can be certain of, as far as Cameron is concerned, most posters to this site will be like those Russian ice skating judges, even if their boy/girl fall flat on their arses they still get max points.
20 - I was being sarcastic :p
Another thing.
Brown has only one option in taking part - to attack his opponents. Since there can be no resting on his party’s platform and asking for 5 more years.
Cameron has two options - to attack his opponents or to promote a positive vision of his alternative view.
Clegg has only one realistic option - since he cannot expect to form the next government, he must attack his opponents. Attack GB too successfully and he makes the case for Cameron. Attack Cameron too much and he looks like a substitute Brown.
Cameron need only behave politely, refuse to verbally brawl (the odd quip or joust would be OK) and promote the Conservative programme and he is very unlikely to lose any ground. Much more likely to gain.
The old saying that “oppositions don’t win; governments loose” was only valid in a bi-polar world. The rise of the minor parties and staying power of the Libs means that Cameron has to be seen to win. He is seeking a clear mandate to make some tough decisions (overdue) and running away is not an option. Secondly, years of Cameron Direct training will mean he will probably wipe the floor with Brown who is not good on his feet (or arse or back). Depending on the final format, quoting reams of tractor stats and ignoring the question will not work.
Clegg will get a little gold-dust from association with the big beasts but will also be forced to take some unequivicable positions - hard to tell both sides what they want to hear simultaneously!
16. “It should be about policies, and Labour’s record in Government.”
That’s the very last thing Labour want the public to focus on.
It won’t happen .. So pointless getting excite
Bottler has only agreed because he probably won’t be around or will cry wolf with some lame excuse nearer the time.
Anyway Mandelson would have to be allowed on stage with an aerosol to prance around spraying the rotting corpse! Be a bit like the mincing queen meets the mr dead!
Maybe Brown has agreed to this in the knowledge that he won’t be the labour leader. That would be an immense way to stitch up whoever gets the job after him.
radio 4 pm - the solstice took place at 1747 - eight minutes ago - it’s all good till june!
All you people bangin’ on week after week about how DC and the Tories are keeping their heads down and relying on the fact they’re not Gordon to win the election…
…then, as soon as DC agrees to something like this (how, realistically, could he not, without a siht load of bad press?), you’re all ‘Ooooh, bad judgement by Cameron’. Bad decision.
Cheer up you lousy nutters. These debates could be interesting, good for politics, and very, very beneficial for Cammo.
Brown will stammer his way to defeat, Clegg will seem a child, while Cammo will lean on his podium and be clear, concise and pragmatic. And if they let them do a ‘walkabout’, the gap between them will grow any further.
CCHQ dont do anything wwithout first seriously analysing all the possible outcomes.
Over the previous 2 weekends there has been a huge logistical operation in all LD/CON marginals where evey voter was asked a series of questions with a SAE enclosed.
I think that the responses have made DC very confident that the LD support in places is soft and a bit like the debates in the London Mayoral with Paddick , Nick Clegg can be made to look marginalised.
They already presume GB is history…
“The big winner from this is Nick Clegg”
I actually think Clegg has the opportunity to sink more than Gordon Brown. You have to square the circle with these things, Lib Dems complain they do not get enough attention - fair enough I hear your critism of the current system, yet because of this they have the advantage of being able to say one thing to one set of voters and another to the next. Nick Clegg may even have the potential to look more duplicitous and ridiculous than Gordon Brown!
Think about some of the policy positions of the Lib Dems, they are completly unworkable and unimplementable.
Seriously I am trying to say this without the usual jokes about certain vehicles etc!
That’s just great. I delurk and end up agreeing with Wayne without having seen his comment and my credibility is shot instantly
19 - I hope Labour is judged by its record. That is what I campaign most proudly on. I also hope that the Tories appalling record when in Government is also mentioned.
Cameron will win such a contest.
To be quite honest these debates even in the USA don’t really change anything. The spinning beforehand is immense and afterwards all Parties claim a win.All Cameron has got to do is to come over as a genuine guy who looks capable of running the Country and he will be OK. Ihave to say that I am surprised that the Lib Dems are geting the same exposure as the 2 major Parties. The fact that Brown has ageed to these debates shows what a poor electoral positon he knows he is in.
Obvously good politics by Labour, particularly as it will help outweigh the Tories spending advantage.
Good for Clegg oblviously.
Risk by Cameron.
Brown should work on making people laugh at Dave.
37. …. and the Lib Dem were pretty hopeless when as Liberals they were in Government the best part of 100 years ago.
37 - Is it the worst recession since the Second World War or the illiberalism of ID cards that most reels in the voters?
The risk for Cameron is if he gets a curveball from an audience member (if they allow that format) such as what Jack W wrote about in Jarhead!
This will be very difficult for Brown as unlike PMQ’s he won’t be able to shout and bellow at Cameron and Clegg knowing he’ll get the last word with a baying mob of Labour troglodytes behind him.
It certainly will be intersting!
36, careful before disengaging your cloaking device you should be
37, I applaud your optimism.
Its a gamble for all three, though Cameron has the most to lose.
Gordon, after his recent ‘triumphs’ at PMQs, presumably thinks he has the measure of Cameron, but the audience are not Labour MPs, chivvied by Nick Brown and I’m not sure chip on shoulder class war and reams of tractor stats will work, and he might well overdo the hand waving and smiling inappropriately. He can’t use his usual displacement activities of chatting and doing office work while his opponents speak
Cameron has experience through Cameron Direct of answering unscripted questions but even then he is caught out sometimes and he’ll have two opponents ready to harry and damn him. He needs to get some real research done and be ready to expose the Brownies. Tripping Brown up on detail (as over the 10% cuts and 0% growth) exposes the worst of Brown where Cameron’s recent broad brush stuff doesn’t.
Clegg gets to share the spotlight, but he does often sound shouty and his rhetoric does go over the top (”savage cuts”). He should do OK though whatever as he gets to be treated as a contender.
Don’t forget - if all the party leaders decide it doesn’t suit them to go ahead, they might all pull out.
I agree it’s a big risk by Cameron, but I suppose he decided that Brown is so TV-unfriendly that it was a risk worth taking.
If the LDs have this opportunity but still do badly in the election it will be a big blow for them.
27
Cameron need only behave politely, refuse to verbally brawl (the odd quip or joust would be OK) and promote the Conservative programme and he is very unlikely to lose any ground. Much more likely to gain.
Programme? you mean he’s actually gonna reveal it.
That’ll be a relief to Conhome, even they can’t find it.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/only-a-conservative-government-will-save-britain-from-a-borrowing-crisis-says-george-osborne.html
Just saw DC on the TV, he getting more like Tigger everyday.
Cameron has to agree or at least be seen to be agreeing. So, really, do the others but there is a bit of a game of chicken going on.
It’s certainly a risk for the Blue corner but no less a risk for the Red one. A clear Cameron win seals the deal; no debate might not give him as good an opportunity to do it.
It’s also something of an opportunity vs the Lib Dems. They ought to be the biggest winners from it as they nearly always benefit from equal footing with the bigger boys. The question is how do they play it tactically? Do they gang up with Labour, to reinforce their anti-Tory position in most of the seats they’re defending (and as they’ve been doing in Westminster), do they take the easier route and attack the government, or do they try to do both and risk falling between the stools.
As for the nationalists, if they want their own debate in Scotland as well, fine. The big one however should go out nationwide. Cameron, Clegg and Brown are the only serious contenders to be PM; Salmond isn’t even standing.
Iain Dale says that the debate formats will be similar and that half of each debate will be ‘themed’ (read: questions limited to a particular subject, such as the economy, education, etc). That’s Labour trying to limit the damage of Brown having to think on his feet and needing to be extemporaneous at which he simply is terrible. They can’t risk him doing a PMQs style performance and obviously avoiding the question. The other half being ‘unthemed’ could mean anything, but presumably is the sop to the Tories to counter Labour wanting a whole series of single subject debates. The unthemed part will (I assume) be where they get to face questions on anything.
As an observation - having sat through presidential debates from 1980 onwards - single issue debates are far and away the most tedious, boring, predictable and uninformative (I know that sounds counter-intuitive). The best debates are when the leaders don’t know what’s coming and have to answer random questions on almost anything. It also puts the candidates under the most pressure. You get to see them and how they react, rather than just hear sound bytes.
The other unknown about the format is whether there will be rebuttal time. Cameron will want this, Brown will not.
We have all become so used to Brown only operating purely by calculation that we assume Cameron operates the same way. Cameron has said he thinks debates would be good for politics, it’s quite possible that he actually means it and is therefore making the ‘right’ decision regardless of the risk. The alternative would be to wriggle out on a technicality and leave himself looking exactly like Brown, given that that is exactly what Brown would do in Cameron’s position. Cameron already gets some credit for agreeing to take part, in spite of the risks. Now let’s see it happen.
18 Julian
A challenge to this stitch up was always inevitable.
The English political system (which dominates the UK because of population) gets appropriate debates - nothing wrong with that for England.
Wales gets debates including their largest party plus 2 out of 3 of their smaller parties.
Scotland gets debates including only one of their two largest parties plus two minor parties.
N Ireland gets the debates despite their total irrelevance to NI politics.
These debates are only “fair” outwith England for those who refuse to recognise the existence of non-English political systems.
Any legal action by the SNP will take place in the Scottish courts under Scots Law.
37.
What, even though the last time they were in government was 1997?
In 2010, that will be 13 years ago.
There will be a whole phalanx of voters voting for the first time in 2010 who were about 5 years old in 1997.
There is, like, one or two members of Cameron’s shadow cabinet who was in the cabinet in 1997, one of whom is Ken Clarke who is actually relatively popular with Joe Public.
And, of course, there is a significant part of the country who think 1979-1997 was a time of seriously better government than 1997-2010.
It’s about Britain in 2010.
Not ‘wot the baby-eating Tories did’ way back when.
Lest we all forget, we’ll probably make up our own minds on the debate - we probably already have! The great mass of the populace will believe what Nick Robinson or Adam Boulton tells them about who won it.
42 - be fair, antifrank - the ID cards started in America and the recession is vital to your own personal security.
I’m pretty sure I’ve got that right.
47.
ConHome should be sued under the Trades Description Act. It is really UKIPHome.
FPT.
338. Martin Day welcome back! Not only that, I hope you stay.
265. Sunil Prasannan, whats the matter with you? Where is Master Gunner weathercock on the good ship BP?
The only one to gain from the TV debates will be Clegg, the Pegleg.
by weathercock December 21st, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Clearly unless David Cameron puts in a below par performance, he has little to lose.
Gordon Brown will have to think on his fett with no planted questions.
Nick clegg may do well but he will have to position his party and unless he performs a 180 degree turn he will attack Cameron which will justify the Tory attack in Con-LibDem marginals of vote yellow get brown.
It will be interesting to see what the SNP does. I suspect SNP supporting Scottish QCs are already framing an interim interdict application for the Court of session. That would pose huge risks for the SNP. they could be accused by the 3 main parties of preventing the Scottish people from hearing the prospective candidates for UK PM which neither Alex Salmond nor the MP for Moray are.
48 Given his statements over the last few years Cameron had no choice. But the SNP could still scupper it. I can’t see how they could be accomodated and it looks like they’ll adopt a maximalist position i.e admission to the big 3 debate not a Scotland only one with Goldie etc by way of compensation.
49 - in the US the debates tend to reinforce existing prejudices rather than win new hearts and minds. There is always the ‘black swan’ moment or October Surprise however. In one of the Reagan elections, for example, his age was an issue. When asked this in a debate, (obviously a prepared answer) he said he would not hold his opponent’s youth and inexperience against him. Loud applause, laughter, and age was neutralized as an issue in the campaign.
It’s not a gamble for Cameron at all. He has no choice but to take part. He certainly can’t afford to be seen as the party leader who prevents the debate - that’d cost him dearly.
re 51 rubbish. These debates are about the governance of the UK. Like it or not Scotland is part of the UK. Easy - if the SNP want to take part in the debates put up 326 candidates then at least you’d have a chance of forming the next government.
45, Clegg’s default setting of “Oh, I’m very angry indeed, gosh!” is rather ridiculous. If he’s calmer he could do reasonably well.
London Transport’s falling down. No more snow here and the roads are fairly clear and yet the buses have almost disappeared.
Let them take minicabs !
57 Indeed and how could they stop post debate Coverage in Newspapers and on TV etc. Can they censor everything?
36 It could be worse - you could have agreed with Ritchie Rich or BenM - or even susanna
FPT
Thanks all.
So, here is the list of seats the Lib Dems are going to win off Labour in England:
Burnley
Watford
Islington South & Finsbury
Brent Central
City of Durham
Oxford East
Swansea West(ENGLAND?)Newport East(ENGLAND?)Birmingham Hall Green
Blaydon
Derby North
Holborn and St Pancras
Leicester South
Liverpool Wavertree
Manchester Gorton
Norwich South
Bootle
All in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
A debate?
For heavens sake, this isn’t America!
40 “Brown should work on making people laugh at Dave.”
Fat chance. The more likely prospect is people laughing at him.
In all honesty I can imagine people up and down the land shouting at the tv when he tries one of his, oh so clever lies.
that is, if people do not turn over, he has that affect on me.
Julian Ware-Lane December 21st, 2009 at 5:58 pm
People like you never cease to amaze me banging on about the Tories 1979- 1997.
Let me tell you, I am one of the 5 Million unemployed. Not claiming jobseekers allowance but something else that many others are on.
The Tories left office having repaired the economy, lower inflation, better annualised GDP growth per year than the previous government. The only thing economically the Tories failed at was unemployement was higher but Labour has done no better and in the last two years made things much worse than the Tories ever did.
You then move onto crime, which I have been the victim of twice in the last 18 months. The Tories never sent Troops to war where they had to buy there own protective armour like under Labour and the Tories never failed to protect this country from irresponsible migration policies.
All in all - I think you wrong and extreame and if you want to bang on about coal mines shutting, think about what that communist financed organisation the NUM was trying to do. Trying to bring down a democratically eleceted government in favour of a main opposition party that could fell well short of even 30% of the vote. I actually think the mistake in shutting the coal mines was letteting all the communist/socialist/trators out before they closed them!
It would have saved alot in miners compenstaion deals, something that Labour could not even manage to do without the claimants being ripped off and the solicitors double charging.
Labour are utterly useless - So go on about the Tories and most folk will just laugh at the ridiculous spectacle of someone talking to themselves.
57 - Easterross. I wholly agree. I’m sure the worst result would be if the SNP actually do manage to prevent the debates from being broadcast in Scotland (they’ll certainly not stop them taking place). It would be much better for them if they can continue to snipe from the sidelines while they take place.
The other unknown about the format is whether there will be rebuttal time. Cameron will want this, Brown will not.
by Tim B December 21st, 2009 at 6:03 pm
There will have to be rebuttal time arranged, otherwise it’s not debate-
66 - I expect the Lib Dems will take about five or six of those.
67.
Interesting point.
It’ll be interesting to see what the ratings are for these debates.
Probabaly no more than for BBC’s Question Time. The sheer woefulness of Brown will mean many switch over/off/not switch on in the first place.
I don’t see that Cameron (or Brown or Clegg, for that matter) really had a choice. To have refused would look cowardly and feed a narrative of suspicion about him and his policies.
He certainly got more to lose than Brown, but that’s only because expectations of Brown are already so incredibly low. If he manages to get through a debate without trembling or saving the world or subjecting us to his rictus grin at an inappropriate moment, it will be a success for him.
A potential game-changer - I doubt it. Most people would rather pull out their fingernails with pliers than watch a political debate.
@66:
According to Ave It, Bootle is nailed-on CON GAIN.
:p
67. There’s a lot of people who have never seen a PMQs, but who might watch a debate. If Brown goes off on one of his usual lie-a-thon tractor stats wavey-hand rants then Cameron and Clegg will be laughing. Look like a human being and you’ve got Brown beat.
I suspect there is a lot to agree on yet though regarding the debates: backdrop color, lighting scheme, stools or chairs, lecterns or not, who stands where, order of questioning, will there be any form of opening or summing up ’statement’, moving or stationary while on stage - and on and on.
In the US there is a Commission on Presidential Debates which handles all these minutiae between the parties - the only constant seems to be that Jim Lehrer always gets to chair one of the debates.
Ed Miliband (and Gordon Brown though indirectly) denounce China over Copenhagen; China announces a British citizen is to be execute next week for drug smuggling.
Foreign Office expresses concern but it will be Ed Miliband’s brother who will need to use diplomatic means stop execution.
Could be that Miliband’s speech is an ulimately expensive bit of rhetoric for Mr Shaik.
Comparisons with US are dubious. Often pres candidates are relatively unknown nationally until the campaign (Clinton, Bush Jr etc..) so the debates can have a big impact (though the last important debate was 8 years ago when Gore huffed and sighed at Bush Jr and looked petulant).
Here Brown has been an MP for 26 years, chancellor for ten and PM for 2. Cam’s been leader of the Tories for 4 years. People have made up their minds. Only Clegg is an unknown - so the risk/reward is far greater for him than the other two.
61 Chris A “These debates are about the governance of the UK.”
You really don’t understand devolution do you? Since the HoC doubles up as the Parliament of the UK for reserved matters, and the Parliament of England for devolved issues, much of the debate will be on England only issues - health education etc.
There are only two serious candidates for PM of the UK. I have no problem with debates between Brown and Cameron on defence, foreign policy macro-economics being broadcast throughout the UK.
In England, if you want additional debates for yourselves on domestic issues that’s fine by me.
57
There are three, one should be in London, one in Cardiff and one in Edinburgh: simple really!
If Gordon Brown sticks to his script he’ll be OK..
It ill probably end as a score draw.
I shall not be watching.
Only peeeepel with time to fill and fond of masochism watch political debates.
And political geeks - who have time on their hands and ARE masochists.
Normal humans watch Coronation Street or The Bill or How to Look Good Naked..or a Shopping channel or Sky Sports…
Or other such rubbish which will be far more entertaining..
57 - a compromise could easily be found where the issues to be discussed such as E & W education, (E)NHS and other items under the juristiction of Holyrood and not relevant to Scottish voters be part of one programme, BBC Scotland and STV could opt out for that one programme and we have a ‘Scottish’ edition instead.
As most homes have digital TV - maybe the debates should be seen on BBC Parliament. Not everyone is interested in politics and an hour and half of a slanging match might put people off after a while.
What will the leaders want to get out of the debates?
Brown will want to look solid and make no mistakes and hope to wrong foot Cameron. His will therefore be a negative target.
Cameron will have a positive target to be positive. That is the Tory line for the election and he will want to reinforce it. This may make him appear not to win in the first flush of analysis.
Clegg will want a positive result in terms of his recognition and boosting his party’s image and weight with the electorate. Thus, unlike the other two, if he only holds steady he has lost.
As he is less well known than the other two there is less residual presence and image to fall back on. For example if Cameron does not do that well many will put it down to him being ‘too nice’. If Brown does not drown many of his supporters will see him as successful. In both cases the residual image already in particular voters minds after years of familarity will ameliorate the real result.
That is not true for Clegg who is largely unknown personally and politically. So if he does not look the goods in these debates he has failed and he will have ensured that his party is not regarded as a serious contender.
So overall it is Clegg who has the most to lose. But I bet he doesn’t realise it. Another cocckup on pensions or sexual conquests and he will be for the chop and St Vince along with him.
Suppose it wasn’t Brown, and Brown went off on an EU climategate ticket.. It might be Harman or one of the Milibands, or Mandy…
I wish some on here would stop getting hysterical, over a debate that won’t happen.
Anyway why some think it would be a risk for Cameron,are just plain stupid!’
putting a dead corpse in front of a live public audience. All Cameron has to do is say “Why would people trust him with his record and who want’s yesterdays man to deal with tomorrows problems”?
Only one party is standing candidates across the UK, though in NI they are joint candidates with the UUP, so really Cameron should have at least one debate with himself. Labour has an unofficial alliance with SDLP so let them take part in two, then for final have the minor parties(Lib Dems, UKIP, SNP, Plaid, BNP) alongside Cameron & Brown but allocate questions such that Cameron, Brown and Clegg answer each one but UKIP, BNP, SNP & Plaid only get to answer on one each.
72, I disagree. I think the ratings will be massive. How many tuned in to watch the BNP on QT?
re 79 yes I understand devolution precisely and am often correcting colleagues to refer to the “NHS” rather than the “English NHS”, or the “UK Health Secretary” rather than the “English” one. We frequently take note of what the SMC has to say (even though they have no jurisdiction in England) as they are often quicker than NICE.
Clegg can have pretensions of being English PM, Salmond can have none whatsoever so therefore he has no right, nor reason to take part, and the SNP no reason why they want to stop the debates from going on.
If a Scottish broadcaster wishes to arrange a Scottish debate, that os their privilege.
Politicians are great.Leading politicians are greater still. Broadcasters are filth.
Ordinary people are worse than broadcasters. Pearls before swine presented by pigs.
Hmmm the Bellylarf not exactly over enthused.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidhughes/100020472/tv-debates-far-better-than-ovaltine/
84
TThe answer to your last question “who want’s yesterdays man to deal with tomorrows problems”?”
is of course:
the Labour Party.
And their client state.
There are a lot of them. Fortunately for the Conservatives, most are too drugged up/stupid/lazy or unwell to vote…
67. A market on TV audience would be interesting. I think the first one will be huge - at least 10m - with declining figures thereafter. Fortunately, Dimbleby is on last.
50. The correct Lib Dem strategy is to gang up to destroy Labour’s reputation now, in order to delay their comeback as long as possible. They can then focus their fire on the Tories six months after they come to power and place themselves as the real alternative.
70 - in any meaningful sense these things are not debates - they are usually glorified Q and A sessions.
Again, in the US there are usually several debates in different formats: town hall meetings, Q&A and so on. It appears that unfortunately all three debates will be of the same format, but with half of each being a single subject debate (presumably).
Rebuttal plays to Cameron’s strengths - quick witted and nimble, can think on his feet, articulate etc, while Brown is more of a plodder and single threaded thinker.
Ideally Brown wants single issue debates with no interplay between the protagonists, and no rebuttal time. Cameron wants a wide open format with all the interplay and rebuttal he can get.
It’s entirely understandable that Labour would want the format to favour their guy, likewise the tories.
Rebuttal is always interesting in these ‘debates’, but don’t assume it’ll be there. I hope so, but let’s not kid ourselves - if Labour wanted to be in these debates the agreement would have been announced long ago, as Cameron and Clegg said YES immediately. The negotiations are an exercise in damage limitation, by getting the format to cover Brown’s perceived weaknesses.
Sounds good to me, just in terms of democratic debate. I think the ratings for the first one will be huge; there could be a tail-off after that, unless someone makes a hideous blunder in which case everyone will tune in to see if he does it again.
I agree with Mike that Cameron has most to lose (because he’ll be expected to win) and Clegg most to gain (because people still barely know him at present and the LibDems don’t usually get equal time). Cameron’s forte is swift repartee, and that’s not the key asset in a long debate. But however it goes, it has the potential of being a game-changer in either direction - I can see lots of the uncertain voters that I meet tuning in and deciding on that basis.
90. Agree: massive ratings.
88. Wayne, you must not vary dosages except under the close supervision of your medical adviser. This is a betting site, so it seems fair to ask how much money you would like to stake on your prediction that these debates will not happe?
95
Were you referring to potential Con voters being too drunk /too drugged up/stupid/lazy or unwell to vote… or lazing in the sunny dominions?
I wonder if Gordon Brown will try an Al Gore, you know get up and try and put his opponent off like in 2000.
Brown would probably try that sort of trick - you can just imagine the smile on his face as he is doing it. If Brown did that, I would love to be in the audience and heckle something like “You should have gone to the Toilet before you went on stage”!
Cameron would just be chilled out IMO if Brown tried to do something Dumb like Gore! Remember Brown and Gore are very similar and indeed still associated themselves together - Gordon Brown led Al Gore into a Broom cuboard just last week!
I always thought Gordon Browns leadership was a Cul de Sac but a Brome cupboard! No wonder the electorate want to sweep Labour out!
Thanks to weathercock above!
Local BBC TV news making great play of poor coverage of roads with grit in Bristol this morning. By Scottish and N. England standards we have had little more than 2 inches of the stuff.
Cameron-Brown = Kennedy-Nixon.
And that’s really all that will matter.
Brown’s biggest problem is that nobody believes what he says any more, and will he still be talking about tory toffs?
Will it be 34/% or 43% of the population who bats an eyelid at this trembling threesome?
103. Should have been. By Scottish and N. England standards we have had little coverage i.e. less than 2 inches of the stuff.
96 We’ll see if there is a big dust up in the first or second one and a buzz is generated people might be more likely to tune in the next week for the sequel.
91 ChrisA
But you haven’t answered the principal question of why the elections to the UK Parliament outwith England should be corrupted by your local issues.
To amend Statto’s point. If an English broadcaster wishes to arrange an English debate, that is their privilege.
103. I ended up abandoning the bus and walking into Bristol today. The roads were a nightmare.
Maybe it is true that Cameron has the most to lose, but how could he say no? I can’t seriously believe that Cameron had a choice here, once the ball started rolling and he was the only potential remaining reason for the debate not to happen. Plus, I can’t believe that the Tories are such overwhelming favorites that they could simply dismiss calls for a debate the way powerful incumbents in the U.S. can refuse to debate a hopeless opposing candidate. That sort of decision would reek of arrogance and contempt for the electorate.
Brown will probably do best, seen as a wounded giant with pygmies on either side.
Not so sure Clegg will benefit. A lot of people may be disappointed to find out he is leader of the Libdems, instead of Cable…
Two people have some experience of debates with Opponents, Cameron and Clegg. Cameron has done more of them. Brown has done none. He is the least prepared.
88. It’s not just how well the leaders do in absolute terms, it’s how well they do against how well they were expected to do.
I wouldn’t call the debates as an easy win for Cameron by any means: he probably lost his debate against Davis for the Tory leadership (not that it mattered), though that was four years ago and he’s a much more experienced politician now. Brown will do everything he can to throw Cameron off his stride, try to lead him down blind alleys and ignore any subject he’s not keen on (something he has a tremendous capacity to do). There are answers to counter such tactics but I think some people are underestimating Brown’s capacity.
89. The Lib Dems are linked with the Northern Ireland Alliance Party.
111 Stars spot on. Given how Cameron was calling for it when behind he could hardly retract now he’s ahead. That would take him into for it before he was against it territory. He had no choice now really anyway.
FREE MONEY ALERT
Our Lib Dem friends better scurry off to Paddy Power or Ladbrokes: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Manchester Gorton at 6/4!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 150% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
Given the (bad)relationship between STV and ITV1 I think the former may well not screen the first debate in Scotland.
From previous discussions of this issue on pb.c, I gather that any legal challenge to showing the debates in Scotland is likely to succeed.
IMHO, a ban on transmission would itself influence some voters.
118 If it looks like they’ll get massive viewing figures they’ll show it unless the SNP prevent it. If they don’t you can be sure someone else will.
In terms of why Cameron’s agreed to this, can we suspect he thinks that a good Lib Dem performance will be good for him since its more likely to come at the expense of Labour seats rather than Tory ones.
104 - that raises a question - presumably these debates will also be on radio.
in 1960 radio listeners thought Nixon won the debate - TV viewers thought JFK won.
JFK looked young and healthy (misleading as we know today), and Nixon looked unwell, unshaven and sweating.
- just a thought
- and Andrew - we finally won one in December!
109. oldnat.
Indeed. As it is, three UK broadcasters are arranging UK debates.
What is going on - Ed junior is now representing HMG on the leaders’ debate on R5.
I haven’t heard Mandy except for 5 mins on F1 Sunday show last week…
Greenwich Council (Labour) performing like heroes whilst Boris Johnson has performed like a pantomime villain.
Here is the situation in SE.London.
Snow has ceased.Roads (thanks to Labour Council) almost normal. Traffic moving at twice its normal speed. Only twelve buses have passed in two hours and only three from a southerly direction.
BIG BUS FAIL TORIES !
I would be very surprised if Gordon Brown won the debate in the eyes of the public, because the public have made up their minds what they think of him and it is damning. It isn’t that he’s not capable of being a good debater (he is), it’s that the public are no longer prepared to listen to him. He’s not going to turn that round in three sessions.
121 - That’s a very interesting thought. It may well be right.
121 Possibly but see 116. He’s made so many statements in favour it would have been very hard to get back from that now.
122 cue tim saying ‘Cameron With A Red Face’ - bit like Dances With Wolves
I agree with others who posted before me that these debates will still not go ahead. Cameron and the Tories will find some excuse to back out at the last minute.
Calling Brown’s bluff on this issue was the biggest blunder Team Cameron made. Brown is well known as one of the most fearsome debaters in the Labour party. He was always going to be up to the challenge of exposing the emptiness of Cameron live on television.
Now the Tories need to try and find the least damaging way to get out of this impending disaster for their vacuous leader.
111. Quite. “Most to lose” is only relevant if it goes hand in hand with “and nothing to gain” - which would be the situation if Cameron had had 17 point leads in every poll since this time last year and the election was in the bag. As things stand, every vote counts, and it is absurd to assume that there is a uniformly high expectation of Cameron and that he will perform exactly in line with that expectation. Life is just not that straightforward.
130. Richie Rich: Cameron and the Tories will find some excuse to back out at the last minute.
Will you be able to watch the debates in BA?
130 - meanwhile, off planet Draper…
On the question of who has most to lose or win, this surely must depend a lot on the way the ‘debates’ are organised and on how well they are chaired.
I do agree with those who say that Clegg has a lot to lose. At present, the LibDems votes depend entirely on local campaigning and on picking up votes by default. Their strategy is a shambles, offering no coherent, positive reason to vote for them, and they seem to U-turn on policies at a bewildering rate. (The double U-turn on tuition fees in the course of a few weeks is surely some kind of record in modern UK politics). For this reason, increased exposure, especially if Clegg wastes it on the kind of inane Tory-bashing we have seen over the last few months, looks likely to diminish their support, rather than increase it as the conventional wisdom suggests.
130 - Brown is well known as one of the most fearsome debaters in the Labour party.
Could you cite an example please? Or failing that show me where in Tom Bower’s excellent book he mentions this?
122. Wondered when you’d bring that up. Great performance too, to beat the Saints.
121. Brown will look distinctive, Cameron/Clegg will blend into one.
We should have had this in 1983.
Foot/Thatcher/Jenkins would have been a cracker!
Does anyone in the US watch a debate and come away saying “That debate was very informative! It will certainly affect how I intend to vote.” No, debates are about two things: getting in one-liners, and making the other candidate look like a freak or a jackass.
Brown is starting from a weak position, which means that all he has to do is get through the debate without gurning and he’ll do better than expected. If he can get a joke in at Cameron’s expense, he’ll “win” but only in a Special Olympics sort of sense–”Look, Gordon! You can make jokes too.” If he freaks out and begins stuttering and flashing his smile, then it will be a trainwreck.
Cameron is starting from a strong position, which supposedly means that he has “more to lose” but really means that all he has to do is not sound too dastardly. He also can’t blush heavily, as it makes him look like a big slab of roast beef. You might say, oh no, isn’t that petty? Won’t people remember his masterful grasp of policy? No, they’re just going to remember that he looked like a big slab of roast beef. Debates are not about policy, they’re about which candidate looks the stupidest.
The traditional position of the third party candidate in the American televised debate is to act like jus’ folks and make fun of the real candidates as Washington insiders. I don’t think Clegg can pull that off. He has the most to lose as nobody is quite sure whether he can speak without looking like a 12-year-old.
130- If Cameron backs out now, it could cost him the election. Imagine the taunts of Chicken Cameron, rising in volume, until election day. Regardless of what Cameron really thinks or feels, he HAS to go bravely into the debate and show how much he is looking forward to it.
130
rofl
Nice irony with a straight face.
123 LondonStatto
Odd. I haven’t seen any report that the debates are going to be restricted to reserved matters.
You guys really need to realise that your domestic affairs are your business alone.
There has been some suggestion that the debates would be themed. That would allow UK issues to be discussed across the UK, and one of the debates could be on English domestic issues - to be shown in England only. The other nations in the UK don’t need a debate on our domestic issues because we have separate elections for that.
That you are effectively having a simultaneous election on both UK and English issues does mean that you need separate treatment.
125 - What is it with Boris and snow?
130. You do realise that “fearsome” means something different than “timid” do you?
139 Stars see 116.
130 - I think it might have more to do with the dubious legality of the debate than Cameron backing out.
I’d love to see a debate but I can’t see how the courts won’t uphold the Nats’ complaints.
No doubt if Ken was still in charge of London the snow would be the fault of Thatcher.
145 It maybe they’ll go ahead with or without Scotland. The Broadcasters would probably flay anyone backing out now.
The biggest losers are the “Others” who will be excluded from the debates entirely. That is, unless there is a faux pas from Cameron or Brown that can be capitalised on afterwards. In terms of “Others” Cameron has most to win in converting potential UKIP voters. I don’t think Brown can expect to gain from Greens and BNP.
There is an opportunity to capture the headlines by announcing a policy initiative that has been carefully kept in reserve. Immigration, energy, crime, nanny state and taxation form obvious candidates for Cameron. It’s less obvious what Brown could use, if anything.
146 - After last years performance you’d have though Boris may have worked out how to grit outside a bus depot.
139. Twice Cameron has staked everything on getting it right for a one-off event with no second take possible: his 2005 leadership bid and the 2007 conference speech. He’s not a man for shying away. OK, both times he was behind but that doesn’t mean he had nothing to lose. In 2005, had someone else won, there was a good chance that there wouldn’t be another Tory leadership election for at least a decade; in 2007, a bad performance could have precipitated a general election, a defeat and the loss of his leadership.
141. oldnat: I haven’t seen any report that the debates are going to be restricted to reserved matters.
And that would be because, quite properly, they won’t be.
FREE MONEY ALERT
Our Lib Dem friends better scurry off to Ladbrokes: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Brent Central at 11/10!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 110% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
AIUI, blushing is not a controllable mechanism. But I would have thought that TV makeup would hide it.
144- Yes, that only makes it all the more necessary for Cameron to do it. I suppose this is uncharted territory in the UK so it may seem that perhaps Cameron could strategize his way out of it, but it seems to me that not participating would make him look so weak and cowardly that he would almost certainly be better off debating, even if the debate is a disaster for him.
122. Cowboys fan eh?
Hmmm
The favourite didn’t win, ‘Strictly Come Dancing’ the favourite didn’t get the,’ Xmas No1′ and the favourite didn’t win,’?’ well who knows? but they do say, ‘Things come in threes’ don’t they!
121- I think you could be right. If Clegg goes too much for Cameron to win Labour votes then he could cost the Lib Dems several seats which the Conservative have held in the recent past (particularly in the south west). On the other hand if he goes too much for Brown he could persuade Labour supporters in Lib Dem-Con marginals to stay at home rather than vote Lib Dem.
I also think Brown will use Europe as a line of attack to try and say the Conservatives are divided and unchanged. If Clegg plays this wrongly he could do the Lib Dems real harm, for the Lib Dem pro-European stance would often seem to be at odds with the majority of voters views in many Lib Dem held seats. I have often been surprised by people (including a number of Euroscepits) I have met who have voted Lib Dem, but do not realise that the party’s policies on Europe are probably the most pro-EU of a major party. My guess is is that if Nick Clegg attacked David Cameron on Europe in such a major forum it could do just enough to cost the Lib Dems a few marginals they might otherwise hold.
80 - China
Face is everything
Last week from their viewpoint they gained face from being the big 2 and sending a junior to meet The One
Ed Milli & Brown attacking them is very bad for UK and Brown as it will be seen as a gross insult. There will no world deal on carbon anything so long as Brown’s around and they will probably execute the guy next week just because they can.
I was doing some business with the Chinese recently, and they consider the Opium Wars of 1842 as still relevant to business with the UK, let alone cheap shots made last week.
Apparenty the order of the debates was decided on the toss of a coin.
An Shadsy celebrates.
156. coldstone.
x = SPOTY.
138 Sort of on-topic;
During the run-in of last autumn’s US Presidential Election,I watched the second debate-to my mind Obama looked assured and calm,McCain meanwhile ,to me,radiated strongly the feeling he knew he was going to lose,and seemed almost negative in his tone.
This was about at the point the economic issues really induced a pro-Obama movement in the polls.
How this pans out ‘this side of the pond’ is too huge a question to immediately ask-just too many imponderables,factors both political and economic.
it should be fascinating!
What a pity the debate isn’t now.
It could be televised in a Santas Grotto, surrounded by loo seats and bird houses, and plasma TVs and piles of nutty, furniture and carpets ooh and loads of lolly and mortgage certificates.
Alex Salmond up soon on BBC News [24] Channel.
He’ll be a happy bunny then…
151 LondonStatto
Frankly, I find the inability of many English posters to understand that foisting your domestic political debate on the rest of us is inappropriate, is incredibly arrogant.
What on earth is wrong with UK issues being debated throughout the UK, and English issues being restricted to England?
Stars & Stripes has been right on every post so far this thread.
Cameron Direct should give DC a major advantage depending on the format but Brown is good at the tractor statistics stuff which is very hard to rebut in real time. I think he has got better at PMQs but they are a very stacked deck and he will not have the advantages he has there.
I would be surprised if the Lib Dems get equal time. Surely they will be on some sort of a ratio. I take Mike’s point about DC having the most to lose but it is also a chance to put forward his message in an unadulterated way for 4.5 hrs. Nothing in the whole campaign will match that no matter how much money they spend. Like others I still have reservations about whether this would happen but I would certainly be watching.
164. oldnat: What on earth is wrong with UK issues being debated throughout the UK, and English issues being restricted to England?
Ask the (mostly Scottish) Labour politicians who imposed the unequal devolution settlement.
And remember that you, as as Scottish voter, get to vote for the UK government, the English executive and the Scottish executive.
English voters get to vote for only two of the three.
125./142. Yes, Boris is personally responsible for all the the bus drivers that dont turn up for work and buses that stall.
What a load of Bollocks, but thats URW and tim for you.
There’s been a lot of discussion so far, but no betting discussion to speak of. Here is the Paddy Power market on who will win the debate:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&ev_class_id=33&disp_cat_id=&ev_type_id=12109&ev_oc_grp_ids=113554
I think the value lies with Nick Clegg and have bet accordingly, but what do others think?
Alex Salmond ‘outrageous on any grounds’ not to be part of the main debates..
current plans ‘not acceptable and democratic’..
’subsidiary debates’ gives clue as to why they would be ‘not adequate’..
This one will run and run…
It cannot be more than a couple of hours before Nick Griffin MEP rocks up demanding his ‘15 minutes of fame’.. again…
It’s interesting that it’s apparently going ahead. There may be some mild surprises - Brown occasionally comes across in the media better than you might expect.
But I’m struggling to think of a single occasion when he’s faced any real critical cross-examination for a sustained period. Interviews with Andrew Marr don’t come into this category. On the few occasions when he’s faced rigorous cross-examination, he hasn’t come across at all well.
FREE MONEY ALERT
Our Lib Dem friends better scurry off to Ladbrokes: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Leicester South at 7/4!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 175% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
Garry Gibbon was spouting the platitudes of Labour all the way through. Gibbon mentioned Labour being an “underdog”, plus he reffered to the Eton question.
What the hell has that got to do with a TV debate?
Ed Miliband then mentioned the Eton thing referred to in the earlier Gibbon piece.
Very stilted IMO and shows how Labour somehow manage to spoon feed the media into what to say.
Sometimes I dispare at the Tories media operation. Not been funny but do they ever bother talking to journalists?!!! Do they bother to try and position things to their benifit? Frankly I could do a better job than some of the Tories media operation from home! I am not talking about MPs or Shadow Cabinet but the way especially TV media is approached. It is obviously failing - Does anybody ever ask the question why? There seems to be no problem with print media, though I object to the way papers that should be baying for blood still peddle Labour clap-trap out even now after what they have done to the economy..
165- In your honor, then, I’ll avoid any comments about U.S. politics on this thread!
I can’t wait for these. How sad am I!
Cameron the experienced debater who is used to answering questions off-the-cuff from real voters …
… versus Brown who avoids real voters and serious questions like the plague and will just gurn his way through the “debate”, interrupting anyone who dares to criticise him …
… versus Clegg who should really really really ditch the angry school boy impression and just look serious for one minute. If he can actually get a word in edgeways he might be a pleasant surprise to people who never knew he existed.
174 - Miliband didn’t mention Eton, he mentioned Inheritance Tax, which makes Dave go red.
156 we’ve got celebrities on ice coming up, then celebrity big brother - wouldnt get your hopes up
tim at 159 “Apparenty the order of the debates was decided on the toss of a coin.”
How does one go about deciding the order of three debates on the toss of a coin? There are only two likely outcomes to a coin toss - unless it lands on its edge, of course.
175
Honor? tut tut, on this site its honour, you colonials getting above yourself, we’ll send you Simon Cowell if you don’t behave.
164 - Oldnat, let’s use the data from 2008 at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=6
Country Population %age
England 51,446,000 84
Scotland 5,169,000 8
Wales 2,993,000 5
N.Ireland 1,775,000 3
So, the election is for the government of the United Kingdom which is predominantly English and the issues to be discussed will be relevant to either the UK as a whole or England (and Wales in most cases).
Your position is that this cannot go ahead without the involvement of a politician from a party that claims the support of roughly 30% of 8% of the population - or around 2.5% of the country as a whole.
Idiocy!
On that basis, UKIP should be involved too given that they stand a slightly higher chance of forming a UK government due to their ambition to stand in all English seats.
112 “Brown will probably do best, seen as a wounded giant with pygmies on either side.”
Another purely neutral -post rod?
I don’t buy this atgument at all. It is the incumbent who always has most to lose and that’s why past attempts at televised debates have always gained no traction.
A Prime Minister doesn’t want to be seen on an equal footing with the opposition. The only reason Brown is agreeing is because Labour are on an arsewhipping to nothing without some sort of game changer.
183. RAJS.
Wasn’t it Blair who vetoed in 1997?
FREE MONEY ALERT
Our local, friendly bookies contine to hands out wads of free cash to destitute sandal-wearers. It must be the season of goodwill to all Lap Dogs.
Our Lib Dem friends better scurry off to Paddy Power: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Liverpool Wavertree at 6/5!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 120% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
176:Rod made a good point earlier, most people think Vince Cable is leader of LD’s not Nick Clegg, they might be disappointed with Clegg.
I dont agree on the premise that Cameron has most too lose in a debate. Indeed I think he has very little to lose in the circumstances.
If anyone had not noticed Cameron is not PM, he looks like he will become PM but as some say he has not ’sealed the deal’. You cannot have it both ways! To my mind this American rubbish about ’sealing the deal’ is laughable. The talk of sealing the deal in the US is usually done in the final throws of the campaign but we have had some ignorant Leftwing posters going on about it upto a year before an election!
I dont think any election is ever really sealed, especially a change of government election until polling day.
Evening all
Some strange comments on the debates and plenty of the usual old nonsense from the usual suspects.
I was reading a comment from Allister Heath (editor of the free newspaper City AM and no friend at all of the Government) who had interviewed Brown. Heath was forced to admit that Brown was on top of all aspects of his brief and in the debates Brown’s detailed knowledge will be a big strength.
That said, it’s also a disadvantage as Brown can all too often get bogged down in the detail and obscuring the point. Cameron, in my view, is the opposite. He makes the point but is not as strong on the detail.
It will be the “rogue” question, perhaps from someone with a husband or son serving with the Forces that will be the elephant trap for Brown.
The thing with this is, If Cameron and Clegg just knock Brown off his balance just once, Brown will dissolve on live tv and go into meltdown. We’ve seen it at PMQ’s, once he’s rattled he goes off into lalaland.
167 LondonStatto
“Ask the (mostly Scottish) Labour politicians who imposed the unequal devolution settlement.”
I see you can’t count either! Of the 418 Labour MPs elected in 1997, only 56 came from Scotland.
That English MPs didn’t bother to secure the interests of the English is entirely a matter for you.
That there is now a democratic deficit for England, is no reason to bore us with your problems.
As Marcia pointed out earlier, the matter can be easily resolved.
Actually, with one amendment, maybe the debates should go ahead as planned. The amendment would be that whenever an English only issue is mentioned, a banner should appear on the screen outside England “This is s0d all to do with us. It’s just the English whining ate each other”.
117/152/173/185.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Salmond’s statement on the debates:
http://www.snp.org/node/15981
I particularly liked this bit:
“the party of government in Scotland must as a matter of principle and proper democratic practice be included in any UK-wide debates.”
?!?!?!?!?!?
190. oldnat.
Can you please explain why the Scots should be prevented from hearing a debate on matters on which they can vote?
190. oldnat: only 56 came from Scotland.
Including, of course, the only two who count.
176. Millsy December 21st, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Actually Cameron is the only person likely to have faced a hostile audience!
I know Clegg has tried doing a weak immitation of Cameron Direct but if Nick Clegg held one of his meetings in the local Liberal Club and anyone could attend. I doubt I would go!
What I am saying is who would bother going to heckle Nick Clegg?! Better just ignored and left to his own swival eyed musili and sandal wearing zealots! 
192, Salmond’s argument is weak. Clegg has a theoretical chance of being PM. Salmond has no chance at all. Under what circumstances will he become Prime Minister?
I think Clegg’s inclusion is slightly contentious, but Salmond’s exclusion is not at all a matter of debate. He’s just throwing a little hissyfit.
125 - Well Reading is a complete disaster zone and that’s a Labour council. Maidenhead where I am currently stuck hanging on in the office is a disaster too - I guess that is Tory now. Bristol is of course Lib Dem. So I guess councils of all political persuasions are useless!
192 - Given Alex Salmonds ability to claim for food in London when Parliament isn’t sitting he could just imagine he is in the debates.
188:But its TV, Brown will not be able to go into to much detail, the person who gets his point across in a few simple words will be the winner.
When the buses all went tits up in February, it was primarily because the local councils hadn’t properly gritted the roads leading to the depots. The TfL roads were fine.
The impartiality legislation on broadcasting is not based on who is likely to become PM and defines NI, Wales and Scotland as special cases.
The OFCOM guidelines define the SNP as major party in Scotland along with the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib-Dems. For any political program broadcast in Scotland unless all major parties are treated on an equal footing then it will be illegal under the guidelines.
In the BBC guidelines they acknowledge that they must take into account the different governmental and political situation in Scotland. They say;
“To achieve this we must ensure that they (their editors) are aware of the different political structures in the four nations of the United Kingdom and that they are reflected in the election coverage of each nation. Programmes shown across the UK should also take this into account.”
The debates fall under the existing legislation whether or not the participants are prospective PM’s and there is a precedent. A UK wide John Major interview was banned from being broadcast in Scotland before the 1995 Scottish local elections as it gave unfair advantage to the Conservatives.
Unless the broadcasters include Alex Salmond in any debate broadcast in Scotland then the SNP will have a very good case to either have Alex Salmond on the platform or stop the broadcast being shown in Scotland under the existing impartiality legislation.
FREE MONEY ALERT
Our Lib Dem friends better scurry off to Paddy Power or Ladbrokes: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Blaydon at 13/8!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 162.5% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
181 Id
You haven’t been reading what I said.
I have no problems with you guys debating your local issues. Indeed you should.
I’m not actually arguing that Salmond should be there in UK debates - simply that you stop confusing your parochial issues with UK issues.
If the election debate were capable of being derailed by legal action, this is an occasion when it would be perfectly proper to change the law. It has to be in the public interest that the debates are seen on television. I appreciate that is rough justice on the SNP in particular, but it would be rougher justice on the British public if it were not to take place in this format.
203 It’ll almost cerainly go ahead. The only question is whether Scotland sees it along with the others.
Cammo will definitely come out better, let’s not forget that he’s been touring the country holding Cameron Direct meetings for a while now. That combined with his evident skill at PMQ’s means he has no reason to not be confident. Saying that though, I do think people underestimate old Cyclops, he gets his points across well enough……yes it may be drivel, crude dividing lines and all that, but where us anoraks can spot these things the general public won’t and he does have the benefit of the office he holds adding gravitas, however undeserved that may be.
If I were advising Cameron I’d tell him to stick it to Brown in soundbites, an oratorical fisking if you will. Brown can fire out statistics until the cows come home, and if Cameron takes him on that way it’s just one meaningless statistic against another and they both look shifty. Cameron needs to just keep calm and deliver one put down after another….it’s not like he’ll be lacking material, he could have Brown in knots in minutes. The unknown element in all this of course is Clegg, does he try to hold the line in Lib/Con marginals by attacking Brown or Cameron? My inkling is that he’ll pile on to Cameron for the simple reason that he needs to keep those Con leaning lib dems in his camp (read. the south west) and hope that he does enough to ensure the diminishing anti-Tory tactical unwind doesn’t unwind much farther.
FREE MONEY ALERT
Our Lib Dem friends better scurry off to Paddy Power or Ladbrokes: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Derby North at 15/8!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 187.5% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
Boulton on Sky is confident that their legal advice is correct and it will happen. They’ve also got plans to do a Scots and Welsh debates apparently. Didn’t mention NI.
201/205.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
Poll coming out at 10pm
Back from the snow chaos. Glad to see Bromley out and about gritting. Chaos going down Gypsy Hill into Lambeth/Southwark - no gritting going on. Some buses running, but crashing cars causing chaos. Only the steep hills up to Crystal Palace are currently without bus services.
Re: The debates.
First of all the format: If it’s just a monologue performance from each three it will be a big turnoff. It needs to be much more interactive. I recently re-watched the DD v DC debate from QT and it was interesting that I thought DC didn’t do brilliantly that evening, yet it apparently shifted support towards him.
On performances, Brown has nothing to loose. He is already on course to getting kicked-out at the next GE. He needs this to be a game-shifter whether by him performing brilliantly or Cameron crashing and burning. For Clegg he needs to pick up a couple of themes are really push those. When the LDs focus on two or three key areas they do get traction. For Cameron it is a two-way bet. If he does well, he seals the deal. If he doesn’t then it could be a hung parliament of some description.
As to the SNP/PC/UKIP/BNP etc… You would need to know the criteria for selection the broadcasters have used. If it is chance of forming a UK govt then surely the later two would have to be involved. They could have a nationalist slot on rotation with the English Democrats/SNP/PC. And finally if the SNP/PC get in, then it should be someone who will have a chance of leading their party after the next GE.
208, Populus?
210. ComRes and apparently it’s “xmas cheer” for Labour whatever that means…
211. That’s according to Mirror hack on twitter
202 - And you, deliberately, of course, miss the point that your over-obsession with the power and status of the Scottish Windbag Convention Centre overlooks that the issues for the entire United Kingdom are essentially synchronal with those of England for the majority of the population.
The time to debate how much or how little the devolved body in Scotland will or will not attempt to interfere with national policies relating to the overall government of the country is during elections for that body the following year.
In the meantime, a party representing under 1/40th of the total population and with no possibility of forming the UK government has no business regarding the broadcast of debates relating to UK General Elections nor should it seek to prevent anyone in the country as a whole from seeing them.
FREE MONEY ALERT
Now we’ve really hit the jackpot for our Laberal colleagues!!
You’d better scurry off to Paddy Power or SkyBet: you guys will clearly want to invest your pension on the Lib Dems in Holborn & St Pancras at 3/1!! That corresponds to an interest rate of 300% in less than 6 months. How can you say no?
Its in the bag boys! 70+ seats: here you come!
I think it’s a brave decision by Cameron because so much is expected of him - but he has the inner confidemce, fluency and charm to survive even the toughest gig.
This is surely too a sign of desperation by the guys in Brown’s bunker. Putting the unattractive, nasty, short tempered partisan misanthrope up against Cameron and top drawer journos on live TV - has the potential to be Gladiator car crash TV - I will be loving it.
Many will choose to tune in to validate their view that they hate Brown and cannot wait to get shot of him and his useless shower of a government. This “underdog” stuff is crap - an underdog at least needs to be likeable!
And if Clegg is anything like the petulant, sulky schoolboy with the tin ear that he is at PMQS, then Cameron will have judged it right.
Bring it on!
193 LondonStatto
You are moving your arguments around.
You were whining about Scots MPs voting on English issues, and now you want us to become involved in deciding your education system!
The answer to your question is, of course, fairness and democracy. Your issues are for you to decide. Of the Scots MPs only Labour vote on English issues. Most Scots disagree with that position. Polling here suggested that Scots think that the English should decide English issues.
On BBC 24, it’s being suggested that one of the debates could be on Education and Health. That’s nothing to do with us - but will be presented as “British” because the Unionist parties are generally lazy, slipshod, and incompetent as specifying which hat they are wearing on UK/English issues.
Why are you arguing that Scots should vote on English issues?
If the debates are banned in Scotland, what will ChristnaD do knowing that she cannot worship at the cathode Dave shrine?
Go on hunger strike?
Throw herself in front of the Queens horse?
Barry Sheerman attacks Ed Balls:
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/local-west-yorkshire-news/2009/12/21/mon-pm-barry-sheerman-launches-new-attack-on-ed-balls-86081-25441192/
ComRes info?
Why Cameron has not sealed the deal
Posted by Andrew Grice
* Monday, 21 December 2009 at 07:17 pm
Fascinating ComRes poll in The Independent tomorrow. The Tory lead is down one point since last month to nine points and the figures still point to a hung parliament.
More significant are the questions we asked about perceptions of the Tories. ComRes found that a majority of people think that a Conservative Government would mainly represent the interests of the well-off rather than ordinary people. Meanwhile, more people do not regard the Tories as an appealing alternative to Labour than do. No wonder that David Cameron will be trying to seal the deal in a new year blitz; clearly, he has not done so yet. Full details of the survey in tomorrow’s paper and at http://www.comres.co.uk.
http://todayinpolitics.independentminds.livejournal.com/43900.html
FREE PRAT ALERT!
Never trust a Scotsman on the make!
MoE movements, if true.
Tiz ‘ere
Fascinating ComRes poll in The Independent tomorrow. The Tory lead is down one point since last month to nine points and the figures still point to a hung parliament.
More significant are the questions we asked about perceptions of the Tories. ComRes found that a majority of people think that a Conservative Government would mainly represent the interests of the well-off rather than ordinary people. Meanwhile, more people do not regard the Tories as an appealing alternative to Labour than do. No wonder that David Cameron will be trying to seal the deal in a new year blitz; clearly, he has not done so yet. Full details of the survey in tomorrow’s paper and at http://www.comres.co.uk.
Naturally any discussion of devolved issues won’t be of any interest to those outwith England and therefore there’s little point in Scottish, Welsh & NI TV/radio stations broadcasting them.
But since I can watch Scottish, Welsh & NI TV by means of freesat, any interested parties in those parts can presumably make their own arrangements. It would make good advertising for the local parties, too.
219 - So 38/29/19 ish.
And the Tories taking a hit on enriching their friends.
218. Martin Day December 21st, 2009 at 7:45 pm
I noticed that Barry Sheerman likes Veal:
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/local-west-yorkshire-news/2009/12/14/barry-sheerman-speaks-up-for-veal-86081-25383526/
Dont think Sarah Brown will be campaigning in Huddersfield for Barry come the next elections! I like the quote “Veal is a very good thing to eat – the animals are incinerated if they are not eaten.”
I can just see NP going upto Sheerman and B0ll0cking about that! Just Incinerated!!!
213 Id
All you are saying in that silly post is that England is by far the largest country in the UK. The conclusion you draw from that is that your issues should dominate elsewhere. There may be limits on your arrogance - but you don’t seem to have reached them yet!
221. But down 8pts since last ComRes? Polls are all over the place…
And of course commentators only discussing ones bad for Tories and ignorning the 17/16%s…
227 - Oops, I beg your pardon. 8pts is not MoE!
Any links to youtube of Brown leaving the try out of country?
What are these constructive suggestions that Salmond mentions from Sky? Presumably means he’s open to a deal.
Re debate experience: while most people only see PMQs, remember there are plenty of other formats in which PMs have to engage - statements to the House, questions from the Select Committee chairs, the monthly press conferences. None of those are quite like a TV debate, but in some ways they’re more like it than PMQ is.
But hey, I don’t know how they’ll do any more than anyone else.
Of course it could be an ‘oddity’ poll def. An oddity poll is one that does not accord with an ARS poll, (produced by Moosejaw’s finest) they are referred to as oddities as the term ‘rogue’ is banned.
Very 1984, ‘peace is war’ ‘love is hate’ that sort of thing.
Term invented by Mike Winston Smith-son.
If ComRes is 9, then we have leads ranging from 9 to 17 points in one month. Frankly these December polls have proved to be useless for determining anything…
Am I the only one that HATES the vacuous phrase “seal the deal?” Yuk!
On Topic: AntiFrank is right. Cameron is taking a risk he doesn’t need to take, but he’s doing it because its the right thing to do. This bodes well for his Premiership, IMO.
224 - so we ignore all the other polls tim?
ROFL
Labour MP’s seem to think its ok to enrich themselves at our expense. Some appear to have broken the law to do so.
strange you never mention this but continue to peddle a dishonest line.
For the LibDem haters (what do so many Scots fall into this category?) here is a list of potential (note the word potential this is not a prediction) LibDem gains:
Aberdeen S
Edinburgh S
Edinburgh N
Dunfermline (byelection gain)
Swansea W
Newport E
Newcastle N
Newcastle E
Blaydon
Durham
Hull N
Bradford E
Sheffield C
Liverpool Wavertree
Manchester Gorton
Burnley
Oldham E
Derby N
Ashfield
Birmingham Hall Green
Solihull (notional)
Watford
Norwich S
Eastbourne
Somerton (notional)
Hampstead
Holborn
Brent C
Islington S
There is also the possibility of other more surprising LibDems gains in the manner of Withington or Solihull in 2005.
As the LibDems start on a notional 67 seats (as per UKPR) they need to make 3 more gains than they lose to reach 70 MPs.
I don’t expect that to happen but 60 LibDems is likely IMO.
216. oldnat: You were whining about Scots MPs voting on English issues
No such thing, merely describing the situation as it is.
Why are you arguing that Scots should vote on English issues?
I’m not; I’m arguing that they can.
Besides, how will you stop the debates being seen in Scotland? Have you ever heard of internet streaming?
216. OldNat - “Of the Scots MPs only Labour vote on English issues.”
Point of Information:
Scottish Lib Dem MPs also vote on English issues. Only the 7 SNP MPs + David Mundell, the sole Tory MP, respect English voters by not interfering in internal English affairs.
233. You always get fun and games with Christmas polling!
One more poll to go this year (YouGov/Telegraph) and then reliable polling starts again in mid January.
235 - I don’t ignore any polls, but anyone who thought Osbornes plan to give his family a million quid would either go unnoticed or be popular is nuts.
155 - yes, a big fan of America’s Team for over 40 years….
Andrewg and ScottP tend to pull my chain when they do less than well…
Not a bad ComRes - what a fine polling institute! It’d be helpful if Mike can remind us when he does the thread on it what their methodology is on past boting and certainty, so we can relate it to the YouGov and MORI.
By the way,
to diane for her pithy debate summary above.
oldnat, give it up. I mean, really. Your points are far too logical, you should really stop talking so much sense. It is clearly too difficult for anyone to comprehend.
I mean, all people are asking for is a compromise in Scotland with respect to the broadcast. Not in England. Not anywhere else. That’s all.
Then we can leave England to its tedious (and frankly irrelevant to anyone outside England) domestic affairs whether it be whingeing, spotted dick recipes, xenophobia or football hooliganism or whatever passes for political discourse down there.
boting=voting
Imagine if this was a conservative mp
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6963667.ece
“Ben Bradshaw, the Cabinet minister responsible for tourism, was facing criticism last night for flying to Sri Lanka for a Christmas holiday two days after the British Government raised “serious concerns” about human rights in the country.
David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, had told MPs that Britain shared a recent EU assessment about the regime’s “failings” to respect UN conventions against torture and on civil and children’s rights.
Gordon Brown intervened last month to prevent Sri Lanka from hosting the next Commonwealth summit and Britain supports moves to strip the regime of its status as a preferential trade partner with the EU unless improvements are made.”
So Mori and ComRes both oscillating wildly.
ComRes 10 -> 17 -> 9 in less than a month; Mori 17 -> 6 -> 17 in less than two months.
ComRes looking like it’s back in full ComedyResults mode; Mori now joining it.
227. sam December 21st, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Yes. The Independent is playing the nonsense of comparing with their own last poll from ComRes rather the last one from the pollster.
So, we’ve 11 points of swingforward from MORI and 8 of swingback from ComRes.
240 - another dishonest post.
Some things never change
236 Excellent post. Surprise losses and holds may happen as well. For instance I would be mildly surprised but not shocked if they held Ceredigion but saw Lembit beaten next door in Montgomeryshire due to invidual seat dynamics.
244. Nick Palmer MP December 21st, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Interesting in Andrew Grice’s article he differentiates wealthy people from ordinary people. I know several very wealthy people who are decidedly ordinary, and plenty of far less well off people who are far from ordinary.
240 - BTW - nice of you to concede the other point re Labour mps enriching themselves
243. grandstander: I mean, all people are asking for is a compromise in Scotland with respect to the broadcast. Not in England. Not anywhere else. That’s all.
Wrong.
In order to stop the debates being seen in Scotland, they will have to be not shown at all.
A proper compromise - having additional Scotland, Wales and NI-specific debates, has already been mooted and rejected out of hand by SNPers here.
235
No! my personal preference is for ICM/Yougov as they have a proven record, but any poll is just as valid as any other, (although you can have doubts.) It is however noticeable that since this site became involved with a polling organisation, (A mistake in my view) any poll that is in dispute with ARS is either dismissed (oddity) or downgraded.
236 another richard - Ashfield?
From Rallings and Thrasher:
2005 notional: Lab maj 10,370 (24.28%) – Turnout 42,711 (57.07%)
Lab 20,801 (48.70%); C 10,431 (24.42%); LD 5,910 (13.84%); Others 5,569 (13.04%)
Unattractive though Geoff Hoon may be, the good burghers of Ashfield do seem to have voted for him in quite extraordinary numbers. This is surely a near-certain Labour hold, although a very large Lab to Con swing in the Midlands might I suppose just on a very good night swing it for the Tories.
This was one of the seats I picked out from antifrank’s excellent summary on PB2 as an excellent value bet on Labour (1/2).
226 - Actually, what I said was that you have your very own set of elections to debate Scottish politics and where the SNP actually have a chance of forming an administration.
That is the place for the SNP to be involved in any similar debates and where limitations on audiences for the broadcast to the region concerned make sense.
To attempt to limit either occurrence or regional broadcast of UK-wide debates because some of the topics involved might stray into areas which will be further debated on a localised scale at a later date by your party in respect of the relevant legislative body represents an arrogance (if we’re going to reduce ourselves to playing the man) far, far greater than I could ever imagine, let alone aspire to.
253 - ‘A proper compromise - having additional Scotland, Wales and NI-specific debates, has already been mooted and rejected out of hand by SNPers here.’
wrong - I have not rejected anything.
243 You must never have read about or watched an old firm game and their aftermath if you think hooliganism doesn’t exist in Scotland as well sadly.
So as per the topic title..
40-24-24-12
The baseline position seems to be the Conservatives leading by about 12% with people desperate to get rid of Labour but unimpressed by the Conservatives.
One advantage a Conservative government would have is that people would have low expectations of them to begin with giving more scope for increased popularity if they are then successful in office. Being successful in office might not be easy though.
257. marcia.
Please note the absence of the word “all” from my post 253.
243 - go and read the last thread.
Some posts there you will love
Are these pollsters having a laugh and just plucking numbers from mid air.
182. I’m not biased, merely opinionated…
2 questions for Brown in the debates:
You claim second home’s allowance. Where is your first house?
How many cabinet members since Labour came to power have become millionaires?
232. coldstone
“Moosejaw” + “Mike Winston Smith-son”
Very good!
If I’d been drinking milk I’d just have spat it through my nose all over the computer. So, a lucky miss.
255. RN
Take a look at local election results in Ashfield, the LibDems have been very active and successful there since 2005 and the Conservatives have more important target seats nearby.
Of course LibDem local election results often do not transfer over to general elections. But sometimes they do and Labour is struggling very badly in all mining/industrial areas in the midlands.
Shadsy started the LibDems off in Ashfield at 10/1, he has them 7/2 now.
259 - The polls are about 40/29/20 giving Tories about 330 seats and Labour 230.
SPIN needs to correct!
#253 Utter bull. If they can manage opt outs with Children in Need and other such fluff, I’m sure they can manage it with a political debate between three pygmies - Brown, Cameron and Clegg.
#258 Football hooliganism and the alcoholic violence that follows it, isn’t widely known as the “English disease” for nothing.
O/t I see Hills have suspended betting on Mandelson for Mayor.
268, Scotland’s too insignificant to bother insulting?
At the end of the day will any of these debates change many voters minds? I doubt it. All the leaders will be stage managed and it will be a rather sterile prtogramme as no side will try and say anything we don’t already know. They will be so cautious as to not make a gaffe. I think most of the electorate have already made their minds up well before the election campaign proper starts. Maybe a couple of per cent one way way or other might be influenced. Not everyone is as interested in politics as we who frequent this site are. The election will be won or lost in the marginal seats and I think it would be a good idea to have a series of polls of the marginals rather than UK wide polls.
268. grandstander: If they can manage opt outs with Children in Need and other such fluff, I’m sure they can manage it with a political debate
No doubt they can stop it being broadcast in Scotland (although to do so would prevent border areas of England receiving it, but why can only stop it being seen in Scotland if it doesn’t happen at all. I’ll refer you to my question at 237 - have you heard of internet streaming?
254. coldstone December 21st, 2009 at 8:01 pm
“any poll that is in dispute with ARS is either dismissed (oddity) or downgraded”
I don’t think that’s happening at all. I’ve seen three reactions to ARS on here:
1. Load of old rubbish.
2. OK, but probably inflating the Tory lead somewhat.
3. Interesting. Out of step but maybe they are right. We’ll see.
I’m in the latter group. I think it should be noted that ARS are not giving dream numbers for the Tories. Yes, they are showing a huge lead but the highest Tory share they have reported is 40%. 44-27 would delight the Tories more than 40-23.
As I’ve said before, ARS’s results are consistent with a public mood that doesn’t like mainstream politicians much and really doesn’t like mainstream politicians who are Labour. That’s not implausible, surely.
It is also, of course, not in step with what other pollsters are finding. We’ll see who is right. Maybe.
264 - One question for David Cameron.
“Why does your family merit a million pound tax cut when you are already a very wealthy man and people on average incomes are paying back the national debt.”
274. tim.
I live in a Lab/Con marginal.
Who should I vote for, and why?
274, he’s taking a cut in his salary, a rise in his income tax AND he only gets the so-called cut if his parents die. He also won’t be getting a million pounds from it.
You naughty little tinker.
238 Stuart
I forgot the LDs - so easy to do!
274
With your intense relationship with Brown central, can you provide the answers to my Brown questions?
272 - those with Cable/Sky can already watch London BBC and ITV as I do from time to time and husband watches his beloved West Ham United on it - I have the therapy ready if they get relegated.
Given that the broadcast(s) cannot be seen in Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland, and supposing some degree of audience participation, how are the broadcasters to ensure that no Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish voters take part?
#272 That is deviating from the point.
If people want the choice to watch it on the internet, then there is no problem, but the question is with respect to what is shown on broadcast television, on the television network in Scotland. No-one is trying to prevent it being “seen” in Scotland by any method.
274 What would you think of Mandelson running for Mayor? Unlike many I think he would be a formidable candidate. He seems more relaxed in his inteviews these days than in the past and of course as a strategist he commands great respect.
One question for Brown. Why does your party think that making ONLY millionaires pay IHT, is a bad idea:?
What a truly abysmal poll rating for Labour in the ComRes poll. After about 3 weeks of non stop media blitz on the great Gordo, nasty class war attacks on the Tories and the best they can do is to poll below 30 points. This really is no christmas present for Brown at all as all they are doing is energising their core vote.
279 As a fellow Hammer,I wish you and your husband a very Merry Xmas-your husband and I must share euphoria over our draw against Chelsea yesterday!
A quick look at the fixture list till the end of February shows many,many takable points-West Ham WILL stay up-I’d put £50 on it at a high street bookies!
Good Evening Festive Followers Of PB.
Debates
….
Jack W Analysis. Lib Dem Gain. I’m buying yellow peril seats on the spreads at slightly more than £1 17/- 3d.
Christmas has come early for young Mr Clegg.
279. marcia.
Well, there you go then.
Pressing ahead with an attempt to ban the broadcast of these debates in Scotland will make the SNP look petty and, worse, ineffective.
274 - still peddling your dishonest line?
talking about people on average incomes… increase in NI - discuss.
(i’m feeling generous so will not press you on the 10p tax rate - which gave money to me on an above average wage and took it away from my son and his mates earning a pittance)
Perhaps Gordon might also like to explain why we pay for this his sky subscription?
285 Care to analyse 236?
re 274. You are being partisan again Tim.
If you carry on like this then your carefully crafted image of neutrality might just be dented.
So far most poll bouncing has been based largely on odd sampling.
Despite being shouted at by tim etc, this Xmas is proving the point made by ChrisD - Xmas polling, possibly especially at weekends, produces odd samples.
Now, for a person to get an IHT cut of £1 million, the nil rate band must increase by (1 million / 0.4) = £2.5 million to £2.85 million.
Interesting.
256 Id
You still don’t understand. Your MPs have decided that your domestic affairs be handled by the UK Parliament. That doesn’t mean that these irrelevant issues be imposed on the rest of us.
Talk amongst yourselves as much as you like. Just don’t insist on boring everyone else.
tim
Why will every man woman and child in the UK be paying off the additional trillion pound debt that Brown has foisted on the nation thro his economic incompetence?
289 Punter. Is that for moi ?
Oh goody, the SNP up in arms about the debates again.
Please, please, please, explain to a judge why the voters of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath should be prevented from seeing their MP in action.
253 LondonStatto
The question is not stopping the debates being seen in Scotland - but their not being scheduled. There is no technical difficulty in this. BBC & ITV already schedule differently in Scotland. No one is trying to stop the English from seeing their own political debates.
255/266: Ashfield is my neighbouring constituency and our boroughs overlap. Labour’s had serious difficulty there in recent years, with the LibDems generally profiting, but the Tories won a recent by-election and were second in the GE. It’s hard to work out who the main challenger is, which should make life easier for Labour. Also, a family of prominent LibDem activists recently defected to Labour. There may be a pre-GE by-election, since sadly a veteran Labour councillor in Eastwood died recently.
Ashfield politics are sometimes pretty nasty - some activists of the three parties seem genuinely to dislike each other and dirty tricks from dodgy barcharts to scurrilous personal allegations are commonplace: the slanging matches make Broxtowe seem like a vicarage tea-party. Another element of the brew is the strength of the BNP nearby. I wouldn’t bet the farm on any particular outcome.
295 Yes. Any seat commentary? BTW On the debates agree but it’ll be interesting how he approaches Brown and Cameron. I suspect it’ll be Brown more negative and Cameron I like him but not his Party. Any thoughts.
296
Should be fun.
I can’t see the Nats winning. Just because they choose to only represent the most poverty stricken and unhealthiest and most innumerate section of the UK’s population does not excuse their actions. You would think they don’t understand basic sums..
Oh: 20% of the Scots are illiterate? that explains it.
296 Scott P
A Scots judge would probably want to protect the good folk of Kirkcaldy from that fate!
Clegg will probably win in the debates.
He has all the fluffy policies: scrapping tuition fees, mansion tax, scrapping Trident, “serious political reform” etc. which sound good in soundbites. Plus he has no negatives as far as the general public are concerned.
tim:
One question for David Cameron.
“Why does your family merit a million pound tax cut when you are already a very wealthy man and people on average incomes are paying back the national debt.”
One question for Gordon Brown
“Why have you increased taxation on the working poor but not on the idle rich?”
302, not so sure.
He backed Trident when up against Huhne, but now says we don’t need them anymore strategically. Nothing strategic has changed.
He also refuses to say which party he’d enter a coalition with, and is vague on whether it’d be on the basis of most seats or most votes.
The mansion tax is not based on ability to pay, and scrapping tuition fees are unaffordable.
He will get the easiest ride though.
297. oldnat: The question is not stopping the debates being seen in Scotland
OK. I’ll remember that.
but their not being scheduled. There is no technical difficulty in this. BBC & ITV already schedule differently in Scotland.
Define “scheduled”. Scottish Sky/cable subscribers can, as marcia points out upthread, get the BBC and ITV1 regions other than Scotland. Should they be blacked out in Scotland for the debates too? How about the official live internet stream there will be, at least for the BBC debate?
No one is trying to stop the English from seeing their own political debates.
What English political debate is proposed? The SNP is trying to stop a part of the UK electorate seeing a UK political debate.
300 masdafish
“One fifth of adults in England have severe problems with basic literacy and numeracy,”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/302972.stm
You were saying?
304 Morris Dancer
None of that is relevant. His erstwhile anonymity will save him.
298. NPMP
I would certainly make Labour favourites in Ashfield and 1/2 could well be good value.
I definately think it merits a position though on a list of possible LibDem gains.
One thing I do expect next year are some shock results (at least shock results to the self appointed experts on TV) and Ashfield has the potential to be one.
On this poll, suppose if you had told Cameron that on the Christmas before the GE the least favourable poll for him would have him 9 points ahead of Labour he would probably have laughed at you!
If the Scotch people are so affronted by the TV debates, why don’t they just not watch them? You know, turn the telly over to another channel, there’s plenty of them these days. Or even turn it off and go out for a battered pizza supper or a few pints of Irn Bru with Buckfast chasers.
“But the big loser could possibly be David Cameron who, in my view, has made a seriously bad decision.”
I would like to see the evidence for this assumption. Wasn’t it Cameron who floated the whole idea in the first place?
I think this is a lazy opinion, based on lazy assumptions.
re 109 because it matters to the the vast majority of the electorate and we are electing a UK parliament and the UK parliament deals with these issues for England. Why would we want to hear Salmond’s views of health and education etc when he can do bugger all about these for his constituents? The Scots can always stop their ears when the debate gets onto a devolved matter if they are so parochial that they don’t want to hear what’s going on in a large part of their country.
It’s a mess, I know, but I’ve never voted Labour so can’t have any complicity in their part in completely screwing the constitutional settlement in this country.
299 Punter. I’d not disagree with any of them as legit targets, some more second tier than others. I’ve one or two others up my sleeve …. and no, not yet.
If these debates happen and I think they will, they provide a golden opportunity for Clegg. Indeed it’s already started - he’s being treated with equivalence with Brown and Cameron and every mention of the debates herein to the election will include Clegg, thus reminding the punters that the Lib Dem exist.
Much will be made of tactics, strategy, make up et all to the debates but effectively today became a game changer in the election with the Lib Dems with most to win, Cameron with most to lose and Our Gawd being given another life-line in the game.
Let The Games Begin !!!!!!!!!!
Those still wanting to bet on Lord Mandelson for next Mayor should note that Partybets have him for 33/1:
https://www.partybets.com/bets.ap?sportName=politics&leagueName=UK&sport=59240&league=117294
He was 100/1 when I took a tenner earlier on.
I suspect David Cameron’s decision to go ahead with these debates will confirm YS’s Tory Con assessment of Dave; he means business.
305 LondonStatto
English Education and Health etc etc are not UK issues. They are (surprise, surprise) English! Why do you insist on imposing your local issues on the rest of us who had the sense to campaign for and get our own administrations to handle our own affairs.
If you like the current constitutional set-up, that’s fine. However, you have to understand that the details of how you handle these matters are of only marginal interest to us - as ours are to you.
We’re all going to be voting on UK issues. The fact that England is combining that with your own English political debate on your own issues is only relevant to you.
316. oldnat: English Education and Health etc etc are not UK issues. They are (surprise, surprise) English!
Upon which all electors in the UK can vote.
I’ll be watching to make sure I’m properly informed of the issues at stake in the election. So should everyone who plans to vote in the election.
(oops, hit send too early!)
…be able to.
If you think it’s irrelevant to you, don’t watch - but don’t stop others who feel it is relevant to them watching it.
312 Chris A
But no one wants to stop you hearing about and debating your issues. Since there’s no need for us to be exposed to them, why do you insist on pushing them at us, when opt-outs are absolutely normal in TV coverage?
Why are you so keen for us to hear your debate?
313 Yes but tactics and strategy. No view at all? Re Cameron see earlier the thread 116 his earlier pronouncements mean’t he’d have lost more by backing out I feel. Stars at 154 is right better to go forward with the possibility of reversing long ruled out than not. He was committed a long time ago no matter what.
oldnat answer me one question. Can you assure me that in the recent Glenrothes and Glasgow by elections every single minute of the campaign was spent on UK-wide matters? I suspect you can’t because I seem to remember that education featured very heavily in the Glenrothers campaign, It would seem that your Scottish politicians are the ones who don’t know how devolution works.
320. oldnat: why do you insist on pushing them at us
Nobody is forcing you to watch.
Unless you’re telling us you’re incapable of changing the channel or using the off switch.
I don’t understand how Labour can possibly be happy with a 9% Tory lead. That would almost certainly mean that the only way for Brown to stay in office would be a deal with Clegg which would require ALMOST EVERY LibDem MP to vote with a 13-year old government on a permanent basis. I can’t see either the LibDems or a lot of Labour MPs being happy with such an arrangement. In a second election both parties could find themselves doing worse than the first. Not all LibDem MPs are closer to Labour than the Tories; MPs like David Laws spring to mind.
By the way, If the ComRes lead isn’t 9% I shall never believe any rumours on here again.
Issues like this just make me long for the time the English hold a referendum on whether to force Scotland out of the Union.
I suspect a referendum on independence for Scotland would get a higher yes vote in England than it would in Scotland.
There will be English people in Scotland and Wales, either visiting and will have a vote in an English constituency, or maybe currently residing in Scotland & Wales but who see themselves as English and likely to return to live in England. Why shouldn’t they be able to see the debates?
I have no problem with the Scottish, Welsh and NI debates being shown on national TV, either.
Whats the betting on the number of times Brown says
“It started in America” or
“Global”
318 LondonStatto
On that basis, any party should be able to have as many PPBs as they want. Those who don’t like them shouldn’t watch.
Your anglo-centric stance will distort the elections in Scotland and Wales, as many voters are not sophisticated as to which are reserved and which devolved powers. Consequently, including your domestic issues as part of a supposedly UK debate is spreading misinformation to the electorate.
We have enough of that through the media as it is. It is quite unacceptable during an election.
It’s not necessary, it’s not desirable for democracy, and I still don’t understand why you want to insist on it.
A Twitter search has the following figures being bandied about. I make no warranty about the accuracy:
CON 40% (-1) LAB 31% (+7)
http://twitter.com/search?q=comres
This may well be an extrapolation on the basis of the teaser blog post I put up earlier. Use with caution.
re 316 oldnat “you have to understand that the details of how you handle these matters are of only marginal interest to us”
That’s rubbish and you know it. Education played a big part in the campaign. When Labour made a claim about the education system, did the SNP clap their hands over their ears and start chanting “Na, Na, nothing to do with us”. No wonder they didn’t win the seat then.
So those who think Daves family won’t gain a million quid are advising him to say he’s part of an avoidance scheme?
Now that would be top.
Watch the seats markets shift when Dave says “We don’t pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes …”, on live TV.
282 - Punter - I think Mandelson would be a formidable candidate, and Mandy vs Ken would be box office before we even got to the Boris bit.
I’ve got Mandelson at 66/1 and Ken at 14/1 on the basis that if those two are in the Labour race then everyone else gets crowded out and the odds on whoever gets the nomination drop to 3/1 against Boris and less if Boris stands down.
Like Richard Nabavi, I like Labour in Ashfield at 1/2. I like the Tories in Birmingham Northfield at 7/4 with Sky Bet. I like the Lib Dems in Gordon at 8/13. A rare outbreak of political neutrality.
321 Punter. T&S will change weekly and then daily nearer to the election. It’ll be a sight to behold.
In the broadest of terms. Cameron wants to win and win well on his terms. To out Blair Blair in the run-up. Cameron is Master of Fox Hounds and has the pack ready. Clegg can’t believe his luck and will run with the fox and the hounds to ensure he’s in the game and poor old fox Gordon is running for cover to live another day !!
Tally Ho !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
317.
“David Cameron’…… means business.”
….and has a whole army of pooper scoopers spinning along behind him.
323 Chris A
Actually education wasn’t a big issue in Glenrothes, but Labour certainly fight by-elections here as an opposition party, which they are in both the SP and Fife Council. However, these are all Scottish political issues. No one in Scottish politics fights elections on the basis of English education or health.
oldnat, this is primarily a site dedicated to the politics of England. Do you scroll over all posts that relate to devolved issues? Or do you find the wide rang of subjects discussed on here of interest regardless of their lack of Scotishness?
329. Is +7 the biggest “movement” ever recorded by any pollster ever?
331 Is the Spectator right that Ken has London Labour sewn up? I doubt it but still. If they do go head to head would Cruddas try as well in your view. Fascinating stuff anyway.
334. wage slave December 21st, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Where as Nick Clegg has 30 Love Birds he is waiting to uncage!
333. Jack W December 21st, 2009 at 9:07 pm
NC and the LD could of course be ripped apart by the mass debate between the leaders!
Remeber coming “first” is not always what is required! 
re 331. You are being partisan again Tim. You are having a bad night.
Knowing you to be fair and objective Tim perhaps you might like to comment on the government subsidies to the trade union movement which are almost exactly the same as they give to the Labour party.
Perhaps you could also comment on the way my Labour MP is using his tax-payer funded communication allowance in what looks like a clear effort to help his election campaign. It will be to no avail - he’s going down to the Lib Dems.
336 don(the other one)
“this is primarily a site dedicated to the politics of England.”
Since when? I thought it was about political betting, and factors which will affect that.
I don’t comment on English issues, because they’re nothing to do with me. I do comment on Scottish and UK issues.
AW confirms poll
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Bets on number of times Gordo says “Global” or “it started in America”
PaddyPower have Ken at 7/2 to be the official Labour candidate. That’s starting look good.
It shouldn’t be in doubt that Cameron took an almighty risk in pushing for a debate, but several factors could still boost his stocks:
- While Gordon Brown starts from an exceptionally low base, and therefore a mediocre performance will be viewed as a triumph, he’s a proven poor debater, reliant only on soundbites and class war rhetoric that will hand the debate to Cameron in the eyes of swing voters and the middle classes. A debate like this could be the final scene in the New Labour saga.
- David Cameron occasionally flounders, but the odd dent could end up benefitting him. Voters who regret voting Labour in ‘97 and ‘01 may have a less clear conscience voting for DC if he comes across as too Blair-like (i.e. like the Messiah). The “imperfect-but-the-best” aura could help Cameron seal it. On the negative side, DC could end up further alienating the grumpy fart wing of the Party who might run to UKIP.
- Nick Clegg arguably has the most to lose here. Savage Cameron, and the Tories can portray him as Labour’s coalition partner-in-waiting, and the Southern LibDem seats will turn blue. Savage Brown, and the Northern Lab-lib marginals will go orange and help bury Brown without Cameron benefitting. Given the LibDem conference, the former possibility is more likely, allowing Cameron to portray Clegg as Brown-lite.
- If Cameron uses enough skill (and arguably he’s demonstrated more political skill than Blair did from ‘94-’97, i.e. during expenses saga), he can successfully make up for any UKIP-drift by poaching more centrist voters or even neutralise it without losing Liberal and Labour waiverers. The fact that Cameron will be debating on national TV and UKIP’s leader won’t be will help firm up the Tories’ dominance of the Centre-Right. Conversely, Brown and Clegg can hope that their appearances will help stop a drift to the Greens.
- Simply, Cameron has surprised us before, and can easily surprise us again with a fantastic performance. Coupled with a lousy performance for Brown, and he’ll win the debates.
- I am yet to meet a single person who says they are impressed by Clegg on TV. His entire style of speaking is just horrendous. The way he puts in wholly unnecessary pauses and tries to feign anger just doesn’t wash with anyone. Worst for Clegg, he appears to be trying to impersonate Blair in his manner of speaking.
oldnat, you genuinely believe that the majority of user of this site are not English? You genuinely believe that the majority of posts, comments and topics are not based on English issues?
Sorry doesn’t wash. The huge majority of users on here are English and they are constantly subjected to stuff from Scots nats which is of no interest to them. We have even had one clown posting the fact that the google logo had Edinburgh Castle on it FFS. Can we be given the option of not being subjected to Scottish only issues?
340 Martin D. Ah young Martin, home from the Smiley Asylum ??
Welcome back.
A game changer may mean many things !!
341 - I have the Lib Dems at 10/1 in Bedford and would happily vote for them if the bar charts were as unbiased as you good self.
329 - those figures are not accurate but we are embargoed until 10pm
316 “English Education and Health etc etc are not UK issues.”
Sure. One of the advantages of devolution has always seemed to me that the Welsh, Scots and English can try out different approaches in, say, health policy. And we can see which one really works on the ground. And if, say, the policy adopted by the Scots in tackling illiteracy or whatever is demonstrably better than that adopted by the English or the Welsh … then I would hope and expect that the English and Welsh will quickly take advantage of the Scottish experience.
Very similar problems are faced in education or health by the English, the Welsh and the Scots (sure there are some differences such as bilingualism in Wales) — but 90 per cent of the problems are the same.
So, I am interested in seeing and hearing how the English are planning to tackle problems in health and education … even if the Welsh Assembly choses a different tack.
I wonder which time, and day of the week that they will fit these in.
I hope when it is on BBC that ITV do not put a new X-Factor on, or Sky have a top football match on. BBC have a summer Come Dancing.
I can not see too many young people sitting down to one and half hours for this type of debate, let alone for 3 debates.
What’s the betting that the viewing figures are all under X-Factor, or Come Dancing.
346. Well put.
Unusual for UKPR to get the first blog entry in before PB.
353 If Brown is the first to speak, it will certainly help the National Grid.
The SNP has a perfectly reasonable point that it’d be absurd if there was no debate broadcast inm Sctotland featuring the SNP, who are actually in government at that level. They overegg the pudding if they try to suppress a debate between the UK leaders, since it’s clearly going to be of interest to many Scottish viewers. Even the most nationalist of voters might still be interested - after all, many watched the Obama-McCain debates.
So what it comes down to, surely, is finding a reasonable format for the Scottish side. If that’s well done, it will take precedence for most even mildly nationalist-inclined viewers over other debates, and Scots can watch the UK ones as well or not as the mood takes them.
343. It’s a good poll for Labour. Especially this part:
“ComRes found that a majority of people think that a Conservative Government would mainly represent the interests of the well-off rather than ordinary people.”
This is why going after the Tories on their privileged backgrounds is a good strategy. It plays on people’s biggest fears about the values and who these current Tories really represent. Labour strategists need to keep beating the nasty tory toff drum right up to the election.
347 don(the other one)
I didn’t apologise!
I skim over posts which don’t interest me - I suggest you do the same.
346 – JustAnObserver, A great post, you have expressed my sentiments on the subject entirely.
357 It is a pleasure to find an NPMP post with which I am 100 per cent in agreement.
Very deftly put, Nick.
I see tim has resorted to name calling again.
353 I’m sure they’ll agree to avoid the MAD scenario. They all want it. Relax.
329. oldnat: as many voters are not sophisticated as to which are reserved and which devolved powers. Consequently, including your domestic issues as part of a supposedly UK debate is spreading misinformation to the electorate.
That’s a bad way to speak of your countrymen.
I still don’t understand why you want to insist on it.
Because a UK debate, seen in the UK, is good for everyone who can vote in elections to the UK parliament to be able to see.
I thought everyone always knew the Tories are there to represent the better off. That’s the whole point of them I thought. A lot of poorer people understand that perfectly but still choose to vote for them for other reasons, such as law and order.
343. It’s a good poll for Labour. Especially this part:
“ComRes found that a majority of people think that a Conservative Government would mainly represent the interests of the well-off rather than ordinary people.”
This is why going after the Tories on their privileged backgrounds is a good strategy. It plays on people’s biggest fears about the values and who these current Tories really represent. Labour strategists need to keep beating the nasty tory toff drum right up to the election.
Well how come about 46% in England say they will vote Tory, and 26% Labour.
359, it would appear that my posts interest you as you don’t skim over them. Notice you avoided answering the question.
358. “Labour strategists need to keep beating the nasty tory toff drum right up to the election.”
Please feel free to campaign along such lines. Nothing could better illustrate that Labour has reverted to type.
One strength Cameron has is simply saying “sorry”, Gordon can’t, the nearest he came was his tearful display over the letter where he turned himself into the victim. Clegg can’t either, on Expenses he attacked where Cameron was apologetic.
Voters are angry, they are angry over bankers, over expenses, over no pay rises, over facing years of spending cuts and tax rises. Saying sorry doesn’t do much but it reacts to the hurt and anger. Gordon has to justify, he can’t admit the error.
Posh Tories:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/vickiwoods/6795354/Annunziata-Rees-Moggs-surname-isnt-the-problem-for-David-Cameron.html
Oh Lordy, the lunatics have taken over the asylum
BBCLauraK
There will be separate TV debates in Scotland, N Ireland and Wales - details will be worked out in the New Year
358.
Class warfare is for jealous stupid c4nts who don’t wanna get off their arses and do a hard days work!
The country is the UK. The Scots are a distinct minority in our country. Why are they trying to impose themselves on the rest of us?
350 See 339.
To large numbers of people the new toffs are the public sector high and mighty who regard ordinary people in a similar manner to how medieval barons regarded their serfs.
Of course these new toffs are Labour.
358. Richie Rich: Labour strategists need to keep beating the nasty tory toff drum right up to the election.
Because that worked so well in Crewe & Nantwich, right?
Mind you, you might have missed that in your Argentine hideaway.
I hate the class warfare stuff (speaking as a State school educated Tory now working as a teacher in a State school and representing a strongly working class ward) but a colleague of mine said he was Labout through-and-through but said he was ready to vote LD next time, until the class warfare stuff broke out and it reminded him why he had to vote Labour to keep the Tories out. This campaing could do both sides the world of good; nervous middle classes rushing to Cameron and Labour’s core vote back to Brown?
367 don(the other one)
It would be impolite to skim over a post directly addressed to me.
As to your question - it’s entirely up to Mike whether he wishes to restrict his site to English issues. Personally, I think that would be unfortunate. No more references to US politics? Mentions of Thai prostitutes banned?
http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/ is 503ing. http://www.tfl.gov.uk/ still fine…
National rail is fine for me
374 - Sorry missed that.
Ken is definitely favourite within London Labour.
The way Mandelson could win would be if Boris was definitely standing and he could portray Ken as a guaranteed loser and himself as someone who could win swing voters, but Ken would probably beat him.
As for Cruddas I think he’ll hold his seat and not stand.
People who are interested in politics tend to rate Cruddas higher than those who aren’t and the name recognition for a Mayoral contest is against him.
380. Back now for me too but looks like it could be yo-yoing for a while.
re 355. I’ve had the embargoed figures since about 6.30pm and feel reluctant to break that even though Andy Grice has given the broad picture on his blog.
365. The Tories have tried to soften their old image of being in it only for the rich. That’s why you often hear Dave speaking passionately about the NHS, the need to protect the poorest against tax rises, and making commitments to continue spending on overseas aid.
It’s clear from ComRes that the strategy has failed the Tories. The majority simply don’t believe the empty rhetoric.
This in itself is enough to prevent the Tories sweeping to power with a massive majority, assuming Labour can get enough of its core vote out. And I think they can if they continue to attack aggressively on what these nasty Tories are all about, where they come from, and who will suffer if they win the election. It’s not difficult to frighten people to the election box.
384. Richie Rich: This in itself is enough to prevent the Tories sweeping to power with a massive majority
Good. They don’t need one and they probably don’t want one. Blair had two, and all it led to was disappointment.
why the hell should nick clegg and the lib dems take part in all three of the leaders debate.
I would have given the lib dems a go in just one debate,the other two should have been between the big two.
I just got a feeling that clegg will be gunning mainly for cameron,so for me the rules of taking part in the debates should have been that political parties should have one hundred or more parliamentary seats and that of coarse would have ruled out the lib dems with 63
re 384. Which ComRes poll Richie? They do change rather a lot.
384 - I am finally convinced that Richie Rich is actually a Tory trolling the board…
381 Would they risk blocking Ken again? He’d run as an independent anyway but then it gets seriously complicated on second preferences etc. Would Mandy stand a better shot v Boris than Ken in your view.
FFS a 7% jump in 10 days what a load of f4cking b4llocks, where did they carry out the questions? Glasgow FFS
Rogue
Before the Indy/Com-Res poll has its cloth of embargo ripped from it, it might be worth going back a couple of threads to a post by Another Richard. This looked at the MORI polls and then compared the results to the previous Com-Res and AR polls. It was the first post that was provided a persuasive explanation of why recent polls have been volatile and what is the true underlying position.
Just to embarass Another Richard I shall quote the original post in full and embolden it.
Looking at the MORI polls:
Oct C43, L26, LD20
Nov C37, L31, LD17
Dec C43, L26, LD19
and comparing them with the past voting record:
Oct C32, L43, LD16
Nov C29, L46, LD16
Dec C33, L43, LD14
It seems that this time MORI got the Conservative total right but are still oversampling former Labour voters and undersmapling former LibDems.
Now if you take the MORI 6-10 numbers you get C40, L28, LD19 and adjust for this oversampling of Labour voters and undersampling of LibDems you get something like C40, L24, LD23. Similar to the ComRes and AR polls.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8425280.stm
The first will be on ITV, the second on Sky and the third on the BBC.
There will also be separate debates involving the main parties in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Earlier the SNP and Plaid Cymru said they should be allowed to take part in the main debates.
The programmes will be broadcast in peak time during the General Election campaign and will be between 85 and 90 minutes long in front of a selected audience.
ITV’s Alastair Stewart will host the first, Sky’s Adam Boulton the second and the BBC’s David Dimbleby will host the third debate.
The format will be the same for each, although about half of each debate will be themed.
There will be separate debates held in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland among all the main parties, which will be broadcast on BBC Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and across the UK on the BBC News Channel.
And following the prime ministerial debates, all political parties which have significant levels of support at a national level will be offered opportunities across BBC output to respond to the issues raised in the debate.
Discussions will resume in the new year to finalise detailed arrangements for the debates.
“….It’s clear from ComRes that the strategy has failed the Tories. The majority simply don’t believe the empty rhetoric…”
Ritchie, have you read the questions?
Were they leading in anyway?
Were they possibly designed to obtain a result that the paper was looking for?
Or are you just making stuff up?
384. “And I think they can if they continue to attack aggressively on what these nasty Tories are all about, where they come from, and who will suffer if they win the election. It’s not difficult to frighten people to the election box.”
Frightening the voters, is that all Labour have left? You don’t deserve a single vote. Anybody left wing with any sense should vote Lib Dem.
389 - I think that we’d need to see some polling.
If Boris was miles ahead then the stronger Mandelsons case that Ken couldn’t win,.
A closer race would play better for Ken.
And if Boris were not to stand, Ken would be even shorter to get the nomination.
The proposal is that, as a feature of the GE campaign, the main broadcasters present 3 90 minute programs on the theme “these are the leaders of the parties you have to choose from.” In Scotland this is not the case.
Remember guys, the Scottish Nationalists are deliberately provocative. They consider divisions between English and Scottish posters on here to be a good thing. All part of the game, ne c’est pas?
Predictions for the next thread if ComRes figures are correct:
IHT-athon
Several posters convinced that is shows the Toffs argument is winning (despite this poll contradicting a ComRes recently which said it didn’t work)
Rogue declarations…
387. This poll:
http://todayinpolitics.independentminds.livejournal.com/43900.html
Officially it will be released in a few minutes.
396 AndrewG
I hadn’t realised that John R was a Scot Nat!
new thread on the poll
Why Scotland should see the England-only bits:
- The UK government will deal with these matters. They will therefore potentially be distractions from the reserved power issues.
- How the candidates answer those questions still gives an indication of what the government will be like even if those issues aren’t directly relevant.
- They are indirectly relevant because what the English government does can affect the funding to the devolved governments.
- Ideas spread. Things that have been tried in one place and found to work tend to be tried elsewhere.
- What the English government spends its money on affects the UK national debt, which Scotland also pays.
- You get a better flow to the programme if you don’t blank out the ‘irrelevant’ bits, especially if something dramatic happens.
What I would find hilarious is if the broadcasters agree to do Scottish and Welsh debates and the SNP boycott theirs in a huff, leaving the Scottish viewers to watch exactly the same line-up as they’d have had anyway.
NEW THREAD UP
re 336 oldnat I find your attitude very depressing. You’re so parochial that you think that anything that happens in part of your country (England) has no bearing on you at all. That’s completely fallacious. I tell you what if you want independence it’s attitudes like that which are going to so piss off the English that they’ll vote in droves for it. What? You mean you don’t expect the people of England to have a say in the break-up of their country?
404 Chris A
Parochial?
When I read the evidence to the Select Committee on Children, Schools and Families of the UK Parliament (acting as the English Parliament), I was amazed to see that there was not a single witness from Wales (which had abandoned SATS), Scotland or NI (which had never had them).
There’s a beam in your eye!
Gordon Brown won’t like David Dimbleby. He was in the Bullingdon Club (not mentioned very often).
I don’t think you could be more wrong on this one, Mike. As to why David Cameron would go for the TV debates:
a) Look at your own reflections on polls - the more we see of DC, the more the Tory share goes up; the more we see of GB, the more the Labour share goes down.
b) Think JFK vs Nixon. Need I say more?
I am amazed at the number of racist posts allowed onto this thread!
If the SNP want to get an injunction (against the BBC) they will get one - no doubt about it.
1. The BBC has a legal mandate to provide political balance. presenting debates in a jurisdiction (Scotland) that exclude its most popular party is not balanced. They poll three times more than tories and lib-dems.
2. These debates are modelled on US style presidential debates. We vote for parties not their leaders. As we have seen you don’t always get what you see on the label. There fore the argument about who can and cannot become Prime Minister is not a relevant one in legal terms.
In my view the SNP will be best served in letting the other three have their debate and using the clear bias this will bring about to the election campaign in Scotland as a campaigning issue.
It will win them votes either way. Alex Salmond is the shrewdest politician in the UK bar none - not the trained monkey your racist posters might think.