thetorydiary

I have already covered Ken Clarke's warning that VAT may have to rise to 20%. In his interview with The Sunday Telegraph the former Chancellor also repeated his warning against a hung parliament:

"I trust it is an academic argument – but I do think a hung parliament would be a spectacular disaster. If too many people voted for the Liberals or all these fringe parties, you'd have a government which did not have the authority to take tough and necessary decisions all the time. A hung parliament means a weak government."

If the polls get closer this may become a bigger part of Tory strategy.  Mark Field MP used a ConservativeHome piece last month to warn that "a hung parliament risks tipping sterling and the gilts market into a catastrophic state." In his debut article for ConservativeHome yesterday, as our Contributing Editor, Paul Goodman urged David Cameron to make it clear to every wavering voter that the only way of being sure of getting rid of Labour and installing a new government is to vote Conservative.

Mr Clarke's warning comes as The Sunday Times reports manoeuvring by the Labour Party to position itself as the natural allies of the Liberal Democrats:

"In an interview with The Sunday Times, Lord Adonis [Transport Secretary] went on to claim that there was “no ideological divide” between new Labour and the Lib Dems and suggested they could forge a “progressive coalition”. The remarks will anger Labour traditionalists who regard the third party as an implacable foe. Adonis — himself a former Lib Dem who joined Labour only in 1995 — said: “Nick Clegg is a very capable leader and ideologically I am on broadly the same page as him, as I believe is Gordon Brown."

Mr Cameron's new year message was also interpreted as an attempt to reach out to the Liberal Democrats:

"Let's be honest that whether you're Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat, you're motivated by pretty much the same progressive aims: a country that is safer, fairer, greener and where opportunity is more equal.  It's how to achieve these aims that we disagree about - and indeed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats there is a lot less disagreement than there used to be."

Yesterday the Tory leader offered to include the Liberal Democrat leader in his war cabinet. The Conservative Party's overall 'lovebombing' strategy was attacked by former Tory MP Michael Brown in last week's Independent:

"All the Tory talk is of a "new politics" and recognising "the good intentions of our opponents". But I'm not sure that too many voters will understand the clarity of the Tory message when told that "between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats there is a lot less disagreement than there used to be". Try telling that to the Conservative candidate in Cheltenham, for whom I spoke a few weeks ago, trying to unseat the Liberal Democrat incumbent in what should be an easy Tory gain. Mark Coote has been working furiously, locally, to point out how hopeless his Liberal Democrat opponents are and how much difference there is between his policies and theirs."

Tim Montgomerie

It's amazing how much airtime and how many column inches one single opinion poll can generate - and I think the Ipsos-Mori poll published in yesterday's Observer certainly got more than its fair share.

That said, if the poll - which was the first in a long time to suggested that a hung Parliament is one the cards - had the effect of reminding Conservatives of the need not to be complacent, then that is all to the good: as I have argued before, any talk of a Tory landslide is not only premature but potentially counterproductive.

Nonetheless, the talk of a hung Parliament set the hare running again on what the Liberal Democrats would do in the event of them holding the balance of power. And here's what their party leader, Nick Clegg, told Andrew Marr yesterday:

"I start from a very simple first principle. It is not Gordon Brown or David Cameron or Nick Clegg who are kingmakers in British politics, it's the British people. The votes of the British people are what should determine what happens. Whichever party has the strongest mandate from the British people, it seems to me obvious in a democracy they have the first right to seek to try and govern, either on their own or with others."

The press are today divided as to exactly what this means. The Independent's political correspondent, Michael Savage, concludes:

"The Liberal Democrats would support whichever party wins the most seats if both the Tories and Labour fail to secure an overall majority after the next election."

But the Guardian's Allegra Stratton disagrees:

"Clegg's comments show he regards the number of votes won rather than the number of seats to be paramount."

There's clearly a moot point there, but leave that aside and let us suppose the Conservatives had more votes and more seats than Labour in a hung Parliament scenario (I add, of course, that I want to see a Conservative majority, but I am not being complacent, Tom Harris).

From what Clegg said yesterday, he is accepting that he would not be in a position to prop up a Labour administration that has just been given the boot. That said, I simply cannot see him being able - even if he wanted - to actively support a minority Conservative Government.

Some of the younger generation of LIb Dem MPs have genuine aspirations to get hold of red boxes - and some of those would not find themselves uncomfortable in a Cameron administration. However, in my experience, the bulk of the Lib Dem grassroots still hold the Conservatives in contempt and would not tolerate their party supporting a minority Tory administration (and I don't believe for a moment that Cameron would give them their demand of PR for Westminster elections in any case).

As such, I would challenge the received wisdom that a hung Parliament would be the making of the Lib Dems. Having failed to support a minority government, a new general election would surely be called sooner rather than later and the electorate would then have a starker choice than ever of whether they wanted the Conservatives or Labour to run the country. This would most likely see the Lib Dems' tally of seats reduced back to pre-1997 levels and their chance of breaking the mould smashed again.

Jonathan Isaby 

The Liberal Democrat Conference is not starting well for Nick Clegg.  Charles Kennedy has attacked him on tuition fees and he is having to backtrack on his talk of "savage" spending cuts.

One thing that will play well with his activists, however, is his new anti-Tory unit at LibDem HQ.

A ComRes poll for BBC1's Daily Politics reveals the left-leaning instincts of the average Liberal Democrat acivist.  ComRes asked: "In the event of a hung parliament at the next election, and if the Liberal Democrats held the balance of power, which party would you prefer the Liberal Democrats to support in Government?"

Only 16% said the Conservative Party and 31% said the Labour Party.

Tim Montgomerie

2pm: Stephen Tall of LiberalDemocratVoice has asked me to point out the different results they received in response to a survey of their own readers:

"If the result of the next general election is that the Lib Dems hold the balance of power in a ‘hung parliament’, what do you think should be the party’s response if Labour/Conservatives offer some form of deal which includes the promise of a referendum on electoral reform?

And here’s what our LDV party members’ panel said:

• 25% – Steer well clear of any form of negotiations or coalition with Labour or Conservatives
• 5% – Be ready to negotiate only with Labour on that basis
• 6% – Be ready to negotiate only with the Conservatives on that basis
• 61% – Be equally ready to negotiate with either Labour or the Conservatives on that basis
• 3% – Don’t know / No opinion."
  

Click here for previous posts.