Downunder, MenziesHouse.com.au has been launched. It aims to provide a one-stop site for Australian conservative, centre right and libertarian thinkers. Like ConservativeHome its focus is on the Liberal Party and with an article from Julie Bishop, Deputy to Tony Abbott, it appears to have the blessing of the party. But, again like ConHome, with articles like this - urging abolition of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - it is willing to go further than the party leadership.
Australian PM Kevin Rudd must be a strong favourite to be re-elected later this year but Tony Abbott - installed as leader after Liberal MPs rejected Malcolm Turnbull's climate change policy - has modestly improved the Liberals' poll position:
"The two-party preferred vote has gone from a 57-43 split in the dying days of Turnbull's leadership to a 54-46 split. Abbott scored a higher rating as preferred prime minister (25 points) than either Brendan Nelson (14) or Turnbull (24) on their poll debuts as opposition leader. He has also reversed the fatal trend where more of Turnbull's satisfaction rating came from the approval of Labor voters (42 per cent) than Coalition supporters (32 per cent). Abbott's satisfaction rating is based on 61 per cent support from Coalition supporters and 32 per cent among Labor voters. Certainly, successful party leaders need support from outside their natural constituency to win, but the notional support of people who are never going to vote for you is neither here nor there."
(1) Has the Republican's newest Senator come up with a unifying anti-Obama message for Republicans? Fred Barnes summarises Brown's anti-Obama message as "raising taxes, taking over our health care, and giving new rights to terrorists is is the wrong agenda for our country.” Barnes says it's "a mantra conservatives, tea party people, moderates, and independents can embrace."
(2) Every Democrat up for re-election in November 2010 will feel vulnerable. George Will in his reflections on Scott Brown's victory notes an unfortunate statement from Barack Obama. On December 15th the President said that "we are on the precipice of an achievement that's eluded Congresses and presidents for generations." "Precipe", says the OED, means "a headlong fall or descent, esp. to a great depth." Unfortunate!
Will continues:
"By promising to cast the decisive 41st vote against the president's health-care legislation, the Republican candidate forced all congressional Democrats to contemplate this: Not even frenzied national mobilization of Democratic manpower and millions of dollars could rescue one of the safest Democratic seats in the national legislature from national dismay about the incontinent government expansion, of which that legislation is symptomatic."
By 55% to 39% Americans want Obama's Health Bill suspended.
(3) Massachusettswas not a one off; this was Obama's third electoral bruising. "President Obama carried Massachusetts by 26 points on Nov. 4, 2008. Fifteen months later, on Jan. 19, 2010, the eve of the first anniversary of his inauguration, his party's candidate lost Massachusetts by five points. That's a 31-point shift. Mr. Obama won Virginia by six points in 2008. A year later, on Nov. 2, 2009, his party's candidate for governor lost by 18 points—a 25 point shift. Mr. Obama won New Jersey in 2008 by 16 points. In 2009 his party's incumbent governor lost re-election by four points—a 20-point shift." (From Peggy Noonan).
(4) The Republicans must avoid looking cocky. "I can disagree in the daytime and have a coffee or beer later on," said Brown. All Republicans need to become like that. Jubilation at Obama's expense won't help Republicans. Most Americans still like their President and, even more, they respect the office.
(5) Scott Brown won with a very conservative message on national security (in a very liberal state). Politico records one of his key campaign messages:
“I believe that our Constitution and laws exist to protect this nation - they do not grant rights and privileges to enemies in wartime. In dealing with terrorists, our tax dollars should pay for weapons to stop them, not lawyers to defend them.”
See the same message in this campaign video:
Overseas wars may now be deeply unpopular but other components of Bush's 'war on terror' like tough domestic security measures remain electorally potent.
(6) David Frum hopes that the Republicans will end what he sees as the narrowness of recent years:
"Republicans have seemed determined to neaten their party by narrowing it... The Club for Growth targeted Utah Republican Sen. Robert Bennett for a primary challenge. (Bennett offended the club by co-authoring a health reform plan that included an individual mandate to buy insurance.) Similarly, the most electable Republican seeking to fill Barack Obama’s former senate seat in Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk, has been targeted by a gay-baiting whisper campaign and attacks on his concern for the environment. John McCain’s 2008 election strategy depended on winning Pennsylvania, yet the most popular Republican in Pennsylvania, former Gov. Tom Ridge, was precluded as running mate because of his pro-choice views. Republicans used to have a substantial pro-choice constituency. But no pro-choice candidate has made it on a national ticket since 1976 – sending a message to politically ambitious Republicans in the Northeast and California that their future inside the GOP has a low ceiling."
(7) The Republicans still have a mountain to clim to win back Congress. Noting that Democrats have $175 million to the Republicans' $114 million, Politico reports the historical precedents: "Republicans on Capitol Hill hope their moment will come again in November. But the numbers are daunting across the board. The most important ones: 40, the net seats to win the House, and 10, the net seats to win the Senate, are very difficult — perhaps impossible in the case of the Senate — to achieve. Republicans have picked up 40 or more House seats only seven times since 1912, when the chamber grew to 435 seats. They have picked up 10 or more Senate seats only four times in that period. They have done both three times in the past century."
(9) But it ain't over for Obama. Far from it. I've italicised the key sentence from Joe Klein's piece in TIME: "The parallels between Clinton and Obama in their first years are striking. Both passed significant economic legislation — Clinton passed an economic package, complete with tax increase, that set it on a path toward the balanced budgets of his second term — despite a stone wall of Republican opposition. Both were driven by ambition and high-mindedness to chase the health care phantasm. And both seemed to lose track of basic gutbucket politics in the process. In a way, and despite the stubborn jobless economic recovery, Obama is in a stronger political position than Clinton was. He has had his debacle earlier. He has the rest of the year — a millennium in politics — to move in a direction that is more likely to gain immediate public approval and limit the expected damage in the 2010 congressional elections."
The Republicans are surging: Ted Kennedy's recent death caused today's special election for one of Massachusetts' two seats in the US Senate. Even if the ex-GQ model, Republican Scott Brown does not win today's election against Democrat Martha Coakley (and final polls suggest he is likely to win) there won't be a Democrat in America who will feel safe.
The collapse of the Democrat vote may mean the end of serious healthcare reform: If Brown does become the first Republican Senator for Massachusetts since 1972, Obama will lose his super-majority in the Senate and Republicans will be able to filibuster his unpopular healthcare reforms. Regardless of the exact outcome of this race, Democrats facing re-election in November in much more competitive states than Massachusetts may decide that they no longer want to be associated with Obama's healthcare plan anyway.
The unpopularity of Obama's agenda is the cause of Democrat difficulties: Defeat for the gaffe-prone Coakley (and her very nasty negative campaigning) will be a big blow to Barack Obama. He came to the state to campaign alongside Coakley on Sunday, implicating him even more clearly in the result. The hall he addressed wasn't even three-quarters full in a sign of his reduced pulling power. The President's approval ratings are now consistently below 50%. He campaigned for the US Presidency using pleasant
generalities but has governed as a liberal in what is still largely a conservative nation. His massive fiscal
stimulus, his healthcare overhaul, his green agenda and liberal judicial appointments have all disappointed independent voters who have flocked to Scott Brown in the Democrat-heavy Bay State.
It is also noteworthy that Scott Brown is a conservative Republican: In the video below - the main video on his YouTube channel - he strikes conservative positions on healthcare, tax and defence:
The race has Republicans and conservatives fired up: Win or lose today they are now finding it much, much easier to raise money. Much of their fundraising is happening online - throwing doubt on the established wisdom that US Democrats rule the web. "Republican politicians have taken over Twitter," wrote Ross Douthat in the New York Times. He continued:
"Sarah Palin has 1.2 million followers on Facebook. And in liberal Massachusetts, Scott Brown, the Republican Senate candidate, has used Internet fund-raising to put the fear of God into the Bay State’s establishment. Last Monday, Brown raised $1.3 million from an online “money bomb,” and his campaign reportedly went on to raise a million dollars a day throughout the week. The race’s online landscape looks like last November’s in reverse: from YouTube views to Facebook fans to Twitter followers, Brown enjoys an Obama-esque edge over his Democratic rival, Martha Coakley."
The gain to the Republicans will come in personnel as well as money: Good candidates will now feel more willing to stand as Republicans in this year's elections and good candidates will not choose to be Democrats, giving the GOP a qualitative advantage in candidate recruitment.
For Andrew Sullivan the race increases his pessimism about American politics:
"I suspect serious health insurance reform is over for yet another generation... The most Obama can hope for is a minimalist alternative that simply mandates that insurance companies accept people with pre-existing conditions and are barred from ejecting patients when they feel like it. That's all he can get now - and even that will be a stretch. The uninsured will even probably vote Republican next time in protest at Obama's failure! That's how blind the rage is.
Ditto any attempt to grapple with climate change. In fact, any legislative moves with this Democratic party and this Republican party are close to hopeless. The Democrats are a clapped out, gut-free lobbyist machine. The Republicans are insane. The system is therefore paralyzed beyond repair.
Yes, I'm gloomy. Not because I was so wedded to this bill, although I think it's a decent enough start. But because if America cannot grapple with its deep and real problems after electing a new president with two majorities, then America's problems are too great for Americans to tackle.
And so one suspects that this is a profound moment in the now accelerating decline of this country."
Republicans will disagree. They see Obama's healthcare reform as part of his Europeanisation of the US economy. Stopping this massive new entitlement will, they hope, protect America's exceptional capitalism from a heavy new tax burden.
Is Obama vulnerable to defeat in 2012? Far too early to say. As the Republicans look to the 2012 presidential elections they still have a lot of work to do in finding a credible candidate and crafting a positive message but for this year's mid-terms they will be justifiably optimistic.
Under its new leader Tony Abbott, the Australian Liberals are calling for a national debate on the level of immigration into Australia.
Kevin Andrews, the Liberal Party's new spokesman on families and community affairs, has called for an end to the Labor government's "big Australia" policy. The Age reports:
"Senior Opposition frontbencher Kevin Andrews has called for a debate on slashing Australia's immigration from 180,000 people a year to a ''starting point'' of just 35,000. In his first interview since returning to the shadow cabinet as spokesman on families and community affairs, the former immigration minister questioned the ''blithe'' acceptance of projections that the population will hit 35 million by 2050...
Arguing that Australians were deeply concerned about problems such as urban sprawl, overcrowding, traffic snarls and dwindling water supplies, Mr Andrews challenged Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's advocacy of ''a big Australia''. ''If you look at the 2008 data, you would need about 35,000 immigrants on top of births to replace the population (for that year). So I say the starting point should be replacement levels of population, then ask what additional population we need so the country can be economically and otherwise sustainable and growing,'' he said."
British Conservatives have been irritated by President Sarkozy in recent times. He has fiercely opposed the decision of David Cameron to take Tory MEPs into a more free market, less federalist grouping in the European Parliament. He has celebrated the appointment of a French EU Commissioner who has the aim of "clamping down" on the City of London's financial dominance. More recently he was putting on a 'best friends act' with Gordon Brown as the two agreed on plans to impose a super tax on banker bonuses.
Time magazine believes that the left-wing drift of Sarkozy is part of a wider pattern of "ideological confusion":
"Who is Nicolas Sarkozy? The answer depends on when you study him. Is he the man elected President in May 2007, who immediately set out to lower income taxes, scrap France's 35-hour workweek, revoke special retirement privileges for public-transport workers, and harangue employees to "work more to earn more"? Or is he the leader who in the past year has slapped down greedy bankers, fumed at U.S. and British resistance to French plans for strict new regulations of the global finance sector, and preached the gospel of "moralizing capitalism"? Is he the man, a son of a Hungarian immigrant, who, newly elected, challenged French pretense of color-blind égalité by arguing for American-style affirmative action? Or is he the leader who, facing critical regional elections next March, has begun openly courting voters of the extreme-right National Front with a crackdown on illegal aliens and a divisive national debate on immigration and French identity?"
The confusion is evident in foreign policy, particularly in the area of human rights:
"Sarkozy pledged to place human rights at the top of his list of requirements for diplomatic partners before he was elected but that quickly gave way to an embrace of leaders like Muammar Gaddafi from Libya and Bashar al-Assad from Syria, state trips to pal around with African dictators, and a congratulatory call to Vladimir Putin after his party's December 2007 success in legislative elections marred by accusations of corruption. "What a strange conception of international affairs when you'd criticize someone for his election victory, and the next day ask him to help you solve the crisis with Iran, with Darfur, and lower tensions in the world," Sarkozy told a January 2008 press conference when challenged on the call. "You consider it normal that I'd insult Mr. Putin by saying his victory was illegitimate, then ask the same illegitimate Putin to help solve the world's problems?"
Time concludes that Sarkozy may be representing the confusion at the heart of France generally:
"In many ways, Sarkozy reflects the contradictions of the French themselves: demanding both free markets and social job protection, wanting modernity and tradition, and wanting fast results with no pain. But those are the very hypocrisies voters elected Sarkozy to combat with his own viable vision for France — not take on for use as his own, inconsistent governing style."
His approval rating is down to 39% from 60% according to Ipsos. It is falling fastest among conservatives.
Just days after Tony Abbott became leader of Australia's centre right opposition in controversial circumstances, his party has won two federal by-elections, caused by the retirement of two senior members of his own party. The Sydney Morning Herald described the twin victories as "comfortable":
"Just days after Mr Abbott won the Liberal leadership from Malcolm Turnbull, the party coasted to victory in the Melbourne seat of Higgins, vacated by former treasurer Peter Costello, and the north Sydney electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by Brendan Nelson. The solid performance surprised many who thought the Liberals might suffer a backlash due to Mr Abbott's decision to overhaul the party's climate changing policy, withdrawing support for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), which is favoured by Labor."
The Age (another left-leaning newspaper) concluded that Tony Abbott's "opposition to Labor's emissions trading scheme has support in the conservative heartland."
The Australian's Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly profiles the unpredictable 'Abbot effect' here:
"This week Tony Abbott smashed the mould of Australian politics. With the opposition divided and behind, he is forcing Kevin Rudd to an election on climate change, the issue that is supposedly owned by the Labor Party. This is either brilliance or sheer folly. Abbott does not accept the orthodoxies that have governed politics during the Rudd ascendancy, and this makes him dangerous for both Labor and Liberal. Abbott is an unpredictable and elemental force who defies the modern political rule book. No adviser can tell Abbott what to say or how to say it. After being elected Liberal leader by surprise, Abbott spent the rest of week throwing political grenades -- supporting individual workplace contracts, backing a nuclear power debate and killing the emissions trading scheme -- while his colleagues held their breath wondering how the public would react."
Opponents of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will gather in Rome today as part of 'No Berlusconi Day', a day of protests almost entirely organised by bloggers, twitterers and Facebook users.
Italy's controversial leader is facing problems on many fronts:
The latest suggest that he has a history of links to the Sicilian Mafia, and that his former party, Forza Italia, was part-funded by the Mafia. He has dismissed the claims as "ridiculous, unfounded and infamous”.
Hi wife, Veronica Lario, is demanding a divorce settlement of £39 million a year.
Patrizia D’Addario (website), an escort, has published a book that in some detail recounts her alleged sexual experiences with Mr Berlusconi.
A ruling by Italy's constitutional court means that he will go to trial
for allegedly having bribed UK lawyer, David Mills (estranged husband
of Labour MP, Tessa Jowell). Mr Berlusconi had passed a law to give him
immunity from prosecution but the court has overturned that law.
The Economist reports that Mr Berlusconi's business empire is also under threat from the courts: "A Milan court asked Fininvest, the company at the heart of Mr Berlusconi’s business empire, for a €750m ($1.1 billion) bank guarantee. This was to show it could pay damages awarded to CIR, the holding company of Mr Berlusconi’s arch-rival, Carlo De Benedetti, in a case after the battle in the 1990s over the Mondadori publishing house. Fininvest’s lawyer was found to have bribed a judge to favour its bid. Mr Berlusconi’s company is appealing against the award, but if it fails, it may have to sell assets."
Ultimately the courts will probably move too slowly to oust Berlusconi but there are now signs of unhappiness within his right-wing coaltion. Gianfranco Fini, his junior partner in the 'Party of Liberty', was recorded saying that Berlusconi "confuses leadership with absolute monarchy". He continued that Mr Berlsconi was unable to distinguish between "popular consent, which he obviously has and which gives him a mandate to govern, and a sort of immunity from any other authority [such as] the magistracy, the audit court, the [top appeals court], the head of state or parliament".
Despite all of this Berlusconi remains popular. 49% of Italians approve of him in latest polls. But Fini is more popular. He has ratings of 60%. The Party of Liberty centre right coalition has an overall 48% to 42% opinion poll advantage over the centre left coalition.
Patrick Cusworth is a public affairs consultant and a member of Hornsey
and Wood Green Conservative Association. He supported the Australian
Liberal Party during the Queensland State elections in March 2009.
The Australian Liberal Party has elected Tony Abbott as its new leader, following a public loss of confidence in Malcolm Turnbull. Following a packed Canberra meeting of Liberal MPs, Abbott beat Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 after the initial favourite, shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, was eliminated in the first round of voting. Known as both a social and economic conservative, the London-born Mr Abbott becomes the Liberal’s third leader since the 2007 federal election defeat to the Australian Labor Party, after Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson last September.
Mr Turnbull, who at the beginning of the year was forced to endure ongoing threats of a challenge from former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello, said he was "naturally disappointed” by the result, and that there would now be a "pretty dramatic change in policy" within the Liberal Party. In particular, the issue of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is certain to prove a vital one in the build-up to Australia’s next federal election (which many have suggested could be called earlier than initially expected, despite the Prime Minister’s denials).
Mr Abbott has long been an outspoken critic of Turnbull’s decision to support Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's proposed legislation, with Turnbull appearing to be paying the price for failing to demonstrate sufficient concern for the potential economic impact of the scheme; that was despite securing amendments to the legislation which he claimed would have assisted farmers as well as saved “tens of thousands of jobs” and as much as $200 billion of investment.
Tony Abbott is one of the most conservative members of the Liberal Party, socially and economically. He is a fierce opponent of the Liberal Party's deal with Kevin Rudd on climate change. The Liberals have now had four leaders in two years. Anyone want to bet that it won't soon be five?
A General Election is very likely soon. Rudd enjoys very high approval ratings and the Liberals have rarely been more divided. Kevin Andrews MP, a Liberal critic of Turnbull, argues, however, that opposition to Rudd's green measures may give the Liberals a potent electoral issue.
Update: Speaking to a friend downunder he gave me this warning: "Climate change fundamentalism has wrecked our conservative coalition. Be careful it doesn't wreck yours."
It's a phenomenon that leading Democrats are encouraging. The White House, for example, is promoting the idea that popular talk radio host, Rush Limbaugh, is the real leader of the Republicans. They calculate that any association of his strong views will alienate moderate voters from the GOP.
Laura Ingraham, another top conservative radio star, is promoting a 'Ten for '10' list of policy objectives for candidates standing in next year's elections. She'll endorse candidates who sign up. A number already have, including Senator Jim DeMint and Steve Forbes. Fox News star Sean Hannity also has a list of ten issues. They include "keeping Gitmo open" and "expand[ing] coal mining".
The hottest right-wing star at the moment is another Fox News star, Glenn Beck. He is currently touring the country to sell-out crowds promoting his latest book, Arguing With Idiots. Beck famously told Fox viewers that Barack Obama hated white people:
As the internet develops we will see more blurring of the lines between media entities and political parties. The monopoly on comment is already broken. The conventional parties' monopolies of political fundraising and of running slates of candidates will be broken too as the barriers to entry get lower and lower. Moderate Republicans fear that the 'Coulterisation' of their party will accelerate with loud and hardline voices damaging their party's prospects.
As the Left rebuilds on the internet in Britain - following a likely defeat next year - Labour may be pulled from the centre by its own populist voices.
"The Liberal Party is in turmoil tonight following the resignation of six front benchers, including Tony Abbott and Senator Nick Minchin, after they refused to back Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's position on the controversial emissions trading scheme. Liberal frontbenchers Sophie Mirabella, Senator Eric Abetz, Tony Smith and Stephen Parry have also quit their positions over the ETS, leaving Malcolm Turnbull's future as leader in doubt. In a press conference tonight Mr Turnbull said he respected his colleagues' decision but the issue was now one of integrity and it would be irresponsible for the party to not take action on climate change."
Yesterday Mr Turnbull survived a leadership challenge from Kevin Andrews MP but other Liberal MPs may yet challenge their leader if polls continue to point to a landslide defeat.
Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian Liberal Party leader since September last year when he ousted Brendan Nelson, is likely to face a leadership challenge of his own in the next 24 hours. Mr Turnbull has caused fury and division within his party after forcing the party to support the Labour government's amended emissions trading scheme - amended by Turnbull. Pasted below are some key commentaries:
Sydney Morning Herrald: "Malcolm Turnbull's leadership has been taken to the brink after his decision to put his job on the line over climate change backfired when he was rolled by the backbench. In extraordinary scenes last night, Mr Turnbull declared he wanted to cut a deal with Labor on the emissions tradings scheme and if anybody was opposed, they should move a motion and challenge him."
The Australian: "Malcolm Turnbull last night threatened to quit the Liberal leadership if his party did not back his assessment that a majority of the Coalition supported an emissions trading scheme deal he had struck with the Rudd government. The Liberal leader laid down his "my way or the highway" ultimatum and closed the partyroom meeting after anti-ETS Coalition MPs, led by Senate leader Nick Minchin, refused to accept his calculation that the meeting had supported the ETS deal. "I am the leader, I have made the call," Mr Turnbull said at a news conference later. "If people are unhappy with the leader they can take whatever steps they deem to be appropriate.""
The Age: "Mr Turnbull told a news conference last night: ''The Opposition has today saved tens of thousands of Australian jobs, protected vital industries and secured energy supplies by forcing significant substantial improvements to the Rudd Government's emissions trading scsheme''. He said the deal showed the Opposition was sincere in its commitment on climate change."
***
Australian Prime Minister remains hugely popular in the latest polls. Kevin Rudd enjoys a 63% to 22% advantage over Mr Turnbull in terms of preferred Prime Minister rankings.
I am currently in Washington DC for the fourth annual gathering of organisations and thinkers from the English-speaking world - all broadly of the centre right - that are interested in developing new solutions to the problems of poverty. The gathering was launched by Iain Duncan Smith in 2005.
This year, about thirty people from a dozen organisations and five countries are here. Britain's Centre for Social Justice, America's Heritage Foundation,
President George W Bush's new Institute (which has already raised more than $200m), Canada's Institute for Marriage and Family, New Zealand's Maxim
Institute and Australia's Kevin Andrews MP are some of the key contributors. A new website has been launched by the Heritage Foundation's Jennifer Marshall - RestoringSocialJustice.com - to track what we are all doing. It's early days for the website but over time we hope it will grow into a useful resource for all conservative people interested in tackling social problems that have defeated the Left. It will record policy thinking, profile key thinkers and case study effective programmes.
Readers of the ToryDiary will know that I am seized with the enormous potential of compassionate conservatism and during this conference my excitement reached new heights. Deeper and deeper friendships are being formed by people who have given their lives to philanthropy, school reform, family policy, tackling crime and understanding welfare systems. An international movement is being built and the RSJ website will be its online home.
Sarah Palin's memoir, Going Rogue, is selling like hot cakes but the American fascination with the former Governor of Alaska is unlikely to see her become a contender for the nation's highest office.
Sarah Palin, talking to Oprah Winfrey, says she is not considering a presidential bid in 2012 (not yet, anyway): "“I’m concentrating on 2010,” when there will be midterm elections. Has she thought about running? “It’s not on my radar screen right now,” she said. Then again, she probably wouldn’t tell Oprah if she were, right? “No, I wouldn’t,” Ms. Palin acknowledged." [New York Times].
Moderate Republicans are said to be unhappy at Sarah Palin's re-emergence: "Moderate Republicans—yes, they are not yet extinct, though most are in hiding—scoff at Sarah Palin and wish she would go away. But she's not going away. This week she's going on-air with Barbara Walters and Oprah Winfrey to flog her new book, Going Rogue: An American Life, and to promote her brand of in-your-face, power-to-the-people conservatism." [Newsweek].
For the Republican Portillistas at NewMajority.com, Palin has celebrity but not credibility.
Loved by most Republicans and hated by most Democrats: "Ms. Palin remains highly popular among Republicans (69% favorable). But the Democrats' striking antipathy to the former governor—she has a 72% unfavorable rating among them—drives down her overall approval." [Matthew Continetti].
Independents are divided but could they be won over if she demonstrated substance on policy?: "In last month's Gallup poll, Ms. Palin had a 48% unfavorable and 41% favorable rating among independents. Not good, but not insurmountable. Flip those percentages, and they could be serving moose burgers in the White House in 2013. What drives independents' uncertainty is their feeling that Ms. Palin isn't up to the job." [Matthew Continetti].
The consensus is that she's unlikely to run: "Republicans have just edged ahead of Democrats in the polls and Mr Obama is suddenly looking as if he might be just a one-term President. But Mrs Palin is unlikely to become the candidate who can oust the man Oprah anointed as "the One"." [Toby Harnden].
For many she'll be a hero of movement conservatives but never anything else: “Palin will forever be a cult hero among conservatives, but I think it is unlikely she will ever hold public office again. In fact, I have concluded that she will never even run. In 20 years she will have earned a spot on the mountain with Buckley, Goldwater, and Limbaugh, but I don’t see her on a ballot again.” [A consultant quoted by Jim Geraghty].
Recent Comments