James Forsyth writes an excellent politics column for The Spectator - a product of good contacts and intelligent observation. Up until today he has tended to pull his punches but not with his latest piece.
Punch one: "When David Cameron and George Osborne move between their suite of offices at the eastern end of the parliamentary estate and the Commons chamber they do so with a pomp that would not embarrass a medieval monarch. A crowd of attendants accompanies them, constantly changing positions but never disrupting the order: staffer, Cameron, staffer, Osborne, staffer. The party moves through the corridors at breakneck speed, heads thrown back, staring into the middle distance rather than looking around at their colleagues. This display certainly succeeds in getting them noticed. But to the Tory MPs whom they march past without even a glance, the whole procession symbolises not power but the remoteness and arrogance of those who are running the party." Punch two: "By rights, Tory MPs should adore the men who are about to end their 13 years in the political wilderness. Three successive leaders have led the Tories to defeat. Now, Mr Cameron is about to take them to victory in a campaign masterminded by his shadow chancellor, Mr Osborne. But talking to backbench MPs, one is struck by the lack of love for either of them. The reason for this is simple: the infantry feel underappreciated and ignored. As one backbencher told me in exasperation this week, ‘the Cameron machine doesn’t listen to anyone’ — and, worse, it doesn’t even pretend to listen. Even members of the shadow Cabinet can occasionally be found asking journalists for clues as to what the party leadership is up to." Punch three: "For all his talk about devolving power, Mr Cameron has as Tory leader centralised power at every opportunity. It is a long-standing joke that anyone who works as one of Mr Cameron’s aides automatically outranks any shadow Cabinet member. But this joke is too close to the bone now for many members of the shadow Cabinet. Andrew Lansley was infuriated when his changes weren’t made to the Tories’ draft health manifesto, leading to a slew of stories about Tory splits and U-turns. Others have taken to firing off irate emails when policy is announced without their knowledge. " The article goes on in the same vein. James is spot on in what he writes. I'm amazed at the number of key think tank leaders, MPs and journalists who have next to no contact with the key members of the Cameron team. As James writes in his column (not yet online) a failure to nurture key relations doesn't matter much when you have a double digit opinion poll lead. It'll matter a great deal when the leadership needs supporters in the press and on the backbenches. In an insightful column for PR Week Week Tara Hamilton-Miller notes that the political honeymoon is a shortening phenomenon. Blair had three years, she writes. Sarkozy had eighteen months. Obama has had less than a year. Cameron may need allies quicker than he thinks. I suggest three key urgent steps that need to be taken: The drawing up of a list of the 100 people Cameron most needs to nurture. A little bit of face time does make a big difference. I know of one political commentator who has been decidedly more positive about the Tory leadership after getting some quality time. Cameron's diary is already full but he does too much of the party's big events. He should do less (so protecting the specialness of his interventions) and his big beasts need to do more. That should free up his diary a little. Promote one or two of Graham Brady, David Davis, Mark Field, Bernard Jenkin, Patrick Mercer or Hugo Swire to the frontbench. Up until now Cameron has not rehabilitated any of the frontbenchers who in some way or other he has fallen out with. He needs to show that there is forgiveness and a way back under his leadership for talented individuals. Tim Montgomerie
According to the table above, just released by Tweetminster, the Conservatives are at a disadvantage on Twitter. @MayorofLondon and @Conservatives are our two biggest players but @DowningStreet (which hopefully we'll soon inherit) and @SarahBrown10 have many fifteen times as many followers.
I'm not sure what limits there might be on Labour using @DowningStreet during the election (the Left are already pre-emptively trying to curb Boris' use of his account) but, as @DavidTBreaker has argued, the Tories need a big hitter on Twitter. That has to be David Cameron.
He will need to address that "tw*t" gaffe (his first Tweet could be a self-deprecating "I was a twit not to tweet until now") but he could soon be reaching hundreds of thousands of people during an election campaign with 140 character messages. I think Cameron would be good at it. It'll be a great medium for communicating in a warm, direct way.
Mr Cameron was cautious when I asked him if he'd join Twitter earlier today (watch here) but I'm convinced it's too good an opportunity to miss.
@TimMontgomerieSometimes the Conservative Party looks like a one man band. It isn't. The Conservatives now have most of the big talents. We've got Boris, Hague, Clarke, Osborne, Eric Pickles, Chris Grayling, Sayeeda Warsi, Caroline Spelman, John Major (who has had some terrific media hits recently), IDS, David Davis.
We should make a virtue of that broad team and use all of them in the election campaign, giving David Cameron some rest from the limelight and ample space to prepare for the all important debates.
If I had to pick the four biggest beasts that will be helpful on the campaign trail I'd put Boris as our big hitter in London, Hague as a big hitter in the South West and Yorkshire, Ken Clarke (with Caroline Spelman) in the Midlands, and Eric Pickles* as lead man across Lancashire and Yorkshire (supported by Sayeeda Warsi). Local newspapers and regional broadcasters enjoy high trust levels from their readers, listeners and viewers. The regional media war will be less noticed by the Westminster class than internet activity but invisibly will sway more votes (at least for this election).
One of my favourite Conservatives is Lord (Michael) Bates. Former MP for Langbaugh and the brains behind Campaign North he's a super talent. He should lead for the party in the North East (with Greg Clark).
Tim Montgomerie
* Chris Grayling should be lead attack dog from CCHQ.
We have to combat the "all you politicians are the same... voting won't change anything" chorus of the disillusioned and disenchanted. We need a leaflet/ a poster/ a YouTube to show that voting Conservative will make a meaningful difference to people's lives.
Recently, I had one go at such a message:
I was encouraged over the weekend to read that the Tories are considering prison ships. We'll need such ships if we are to fulfil our high impact promise to end Labour's early release scheme.
I'm also convinced that expenses will much bigger on the doorstep than many Westminster politicians realise. The issue may no longer dominate the headlines but it hasn't gone away. Every Tory candidate should be armed with a tough set of clean-up-politics pledges and their own personal codes of conduct. A power to recall unethical MPs should be one of the party's pledges.
Tim Montgomerie
If the economy (addressed an hour ago) is the number one General Election issue, voters told YouGov and MigrationWatch that immigration was their second most important issue.
The Conservatives have been gently raising the volume on this issue recently - and Chris Grayling made a good intervention two weeks ago, promising to tackle the biggest vulnerability in our borders; the student visa system.
One of the other crucial ingredients in the Tory commitment to end Labour's uncontrolled immigration policy is the introduction of a cap on the inflow from outside the EU. It may be impossible to set the cap exactly because the party has rightly promised to consult with business and the key public services on their needs for specialist and seasonal workers. We could, however, announce an overall target for net immigration. A commitment, for example, to limit net immigration to an average of 50,000 per year - within an annual flexible rage of 30,000 to 70,000 would be indicative to voters while allowing employers flexibility to influence the inflow of economic migrants.
The announcement should be made soon - to avoid being made in the heat of an election campaign - and ideally after a couple of good opinion polls. The worst time would be after a bad opinion poll and the announcement would then risk being presented as a panic measure.
The announcement could be made by Chris Grayling, Damian Green and Sayeeda Warsi.
Tim Montgomerie
In this ten part series - posting on the hour until 6pm today - I start with this message as Paul Goodman started the year. It's the most important message that the Conservatives need to communicate from now until polling day.
We need to make it clear (as Eric Pickles, Mark Field (who was in front of the pack) and Ken Clarke have done) that a hung parliament would be disastrous for Britain. The markets might panic. The urgent work of cutting the deficit would be delayed. We would look like Britain in the 1970s; overseen by weak coalition governments.
We need a strong government in these treacherous times. A government with a plan. Not the chaos of a hung parliament and drawn out negotiations until some kind of government is formed.
No poll suggests Labour can win. No commentator believes Labour will win. Labour's only hope of staying in office is a backroom deal with Nick Clegg.
Voters can choose the Conservatives or the chaos of a hung parliament.
Tim Montgomerie
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