thetorydiary

In the first of a short series highlighting issues which need early and urgent attention from an incoming Conservative Government, ConservativeHome Contributing Editor Paul Goodman  considers the need to redraw constituency boundaries to level a playing field which is currently weighted in Labour's favour.

Let’s start with a simple comparison.  Imagine that at the coming election we win 40% of the vote, Labour 30%, the Liberals 18% and others 12% [The results in the overnight ICM poll].  All else being equal, we’d have a Commons majority of eight.

Now reverse those first two figures.  Imagine that Labour gain 40%, we take 30%, and the other two figures stay the same.  Labour would have a majority of 138 – an 130 seat difference on the same share of the vote, according to UK Polling Report.

Put aside, for a moment, the likelihood or otherwise of the vote dividing up in this way.  Wave away, too, the rejoinder that all things are never equal, and that regional swings, local factors, tactical voting and so on must be taken into account. The big point remains: the rules of the game work against us.  (I will stick to “rules of the game” rather than “electoral system”, because the latter suggests the matter of the voting system, which is extraneous to the case I wish to make.)  In the big game between blues and reds, we start off several goals down – and that’s before taking into account that we start from a base of under 200 MPs.

I concede that not all of our setbacks stem from the rules.  There are other factors at work, and I don’t mean policy or presentation.  For example, our vote is unevenly distributed: it tends to pile up where we don’t need it – namely, in seats that we already hold.   Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus argues that this differential turnout is the most important element of all.  So do others – as we’ll see later.

Or again, we’ve tended to be the victim of tactical voting, as Liberal and Labour voters switch to the leading local anti-Conservative challenger to keep us out.  It’s worth noting that Labour may be the losers from this phenomenon next time, in what’s called “tactical unwind”.  Mike Smithson has explored this possibility repeatedly on the Political Betting site and his pieces are worth checking out.

None the less, it’s evident that the rules of the game don’t simply work against us, but are unfair as they stand.  I want generally to steer clear of complex figures, but it’s vital to illustrate the main weakness of the rules – that Labour get more for less.

12.30pm update: The Guardian reports that Jack Straw has ruled the proposals below as "simply unacceptable". He is quoted as saying:

"These proposals are simply unacceptable. The exercise has therefore ended. Democracy has to be paid for."

1pm update: Dominic Grieve has welcomed the climbdown, but added:

“We welcome the fact the Government has been forced to drop these alarming proposals that threaten our fundamental democratic principles. The Government must now publish this report at the earliest opportunity so the public can be sure they are not trying to hide anything else.”

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An exclusive from this week's Local Government Chronicle which has been picked up by this morning's Times

will unnerve anyone who takes the view that you cannot put a price on democracy.

The Ministry of Justice's "elections efficiency savings working group" - comprising civil servants, council chief executives and local elections officials - has come up with proposals to reduce the cost of running elections.

And among its more controversial proposals are to investigate reducing the number of polling stations and to consider closing polling stations an hour early at 9pm instead of 10pm - with minutes of a recent meeting of the working group concluding that “reducing the polling day by three to four hours” would be needed to generate savings.

The reduction in the number of polling stations - as The Times points out - would hit rural areas the hardest and effectively reduce people's access to the democratic process. 

Shadow Justice Secretary, Dominic Grieve, has given this reaction to the proposals:

“There is no more fundamental right in a democracy than that people should have the ability to choose the people who represent them. We must ensure that this right is not jeopardised.”

See here for a full list of what it is under discussion.

Meanwhile, those backing the Save General Election Night campaign will also be alarmed to hear that the group has been discussing a plan that "would see ministers 'mandate' daytime counts to save on staff and accommodation costs".

An MoJ spokesman quoted by the LGC played down the document as an "internal working document" and said that Jack Straw viewed “the drama and excitement of general election night as a vital part of our political heritage, and we would not wish to see this tradition lost”.

This is the second time that we have heard positive noises on the subject from those speaking on behalf of the Justice Secretary (see here for the first) - but I would rather hear them from the horse's mouth.

I have argued throughout the campaign that the reduction in the cost attained by counting on the Friday rather than the Thursday night would be negligible and that in any case you cannot put a price on the increasing public detachment from the process that would result from such a move.

Yet according to the LGC, David Monks, the chief executive of Huntingdonshire council and chairman of the Society of Local Authorities & Senior Managers’ electoral matters panel, "insisted the democratic process could not be treated as sacrosanct". 

It may be a typical Sunday newspaper story - and it's written by Melissa Kite who has a history of speculative pieces - but I hope it is true.

The Sunday Telegraph is suggesting that plans for leadership election debates are "in chaos" because David Cameron and Gordon Brown cannot agree on formats:

"Gordon Brown has proposed up to six debates while the Liberal Democrats are demanding three three-way debates.  Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats are accusing the Tory leader of "backing down" after months of calling for a television debate. Mr Cameron has proposed the most slimline option, involving one debate with all three leaders. But Mr Brown has told broadcasters he wants at least six. He and Mr Cameron would go head to head in one, Mr Brown would face Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, in another while Mr Cameron would face Mr Clegg in a third. Then there would be three more debates between Mr Brown and Mr Cameron focused on a different issue each time, such as the economy."

My concern about these debates is very simple. The Conservatives have too much to lose when we are comfortably ahead in the opinion polls and therefore have to be very careful about the formats we are willing to accept.  I hope the report is correct and Team Cameron is insisting on just one or two debates.  At the very least I hope we can exclude Nick Clegg from one of the debates. Earlier in the week a poll of ConservativeHome readers agreed that there should be at least one Brown V Cameron head-to-head ratings-busting debate.  Mr Clegg is not going to be Prime Minister and he does not deserve the boost in status that equal-debates-footing would give him.

Tim Montgomerie

Very early backing for the campaign to retain Thursday night counts at the next general election came from Conservative Party chairman Eric Pickles, who sought the support of Justice Secretary Jack Straw, suggesting that he was best placed to write to Returning Officers to encourage that traditional practices be maintained.

I have now been given sight of the letter Mr Straw has sent Mr Pickles and it begins on a very encouraging note. The Justice Secretary states:

"I agree wholeheartedly that the drama and excitement of General Election night is a vital part of our political heritage. I no more wish to see this tradition lost than you do."

However, in referring to this letter to Returning Officers from the Chief Executive of the Electoral Commission, he goes on:

"Returning Officers are independent and very rightly so. Whatever my personal preference for as many election night counts as possible, which is as strong as yours, that does mean that as the Secretary of State with sponsoring responsibility for the Electoral Commission and for election law, I must not improperly seek to interfere with the necessary discretion of Returning Officers, or the capacity of the Electoral Commission to give advice as they think appropriate. To answer a question in your letter, it follows that it would be inappropriate for the Government to use its control of the purse strings to influence the judgement of the Returning Officers"

Click here to read his letter in full.

Eric Pickles has responded thus:

"It is disappointing that the Secretary of State is trying to wash his hands of policy on UK-wide national elections. It speaks volumes that no-one wants to take responsibility or be held accountable for this bonkers proposal to abolish general election night. Conservatives will continue to work with other political parties and the media to build a consensus in favour of saving this important and valued part of Britain's democratic process."

Mr Straw's stated position suggests that we will therefore have to continue to exert pressure on individual Returning Officers on a local basis in order to Save General Election Night. Councillors of all parties up and down the land have been doing a sterling job of raising the issue with local officials and highlighting the matter in the local press, and I hope they will continue to do that.

The Facebook group includes information which I have collated from people about counting times for about half the country's constituencies, and I will seek to update that later today.

As ever, do email me with news of anything happening in your area!

Jonathan Isaby

It was two weeks ago that my colleague Jonathan Isaby launched his 'Save General Election Night' campaign and it has won considerable media attention (including this excellent Radio 4 feature with Carolyn Quinn) and cross-party endorsements. We are particularly grateful for the support of LabourList and LibDemVoice.

A special ComRes poll for the Local Government Association finds that the campaign chimes with the general public.  50% supported immediate counting of votes.  Only 22% said counting should wait until the following day.  27% didn't mind.

Let us hope the poll will encourage LGA member councils to sign up to on-the-night counting. Conservative councils received another encouragement to do just that with a letter from Party Chairman Eric Pickles.  Read this PDF for the full text of Eric's letter.

I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate Jonathan on a brilliant campaign.  He's been quoted all over the regional press and can be very proud of his efforts.

Tim Montgomerie

Given the cross-party nature of the Save General Election Night campaign, I was invited this morning to give an update on how the campaign is going by our counterparts at LabourList, so please read my post there for a brief summary of the first five days of the campaign.

But this afternoon, I have been alerted to growing disquiet in West Yorkshire over the prospect of many marginal constituencies delaying their counts until the Friday. The returning officers at several councils in the county are yet to announce a final decision, but are known to be very keen to count on the Friday rather than the Thurday.

West Yorkshire is a key battleground for the next general election, with seats like Batley and Spen, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Elmet and Rothwell, Pudsey and several of the Leeds constituencies all among seats that the Conservatives must win in order to win an overall majority (plus the new seat Ed Balls is contesting, Morley and Outwood, is there). If they, along with a number of other marginals around the country, are not counted on the Thursday night, the overall national result could well also remain in the balance until the Friday lunchtime.

This has prompted a string of Labour politicians in West Yorkshire to add their backing to the aim of the Save General Election night campaign, with one MP going so far as to suggest that primary legislation might need to be passed in order to ensure the Thursday night count.

The following quotes all come from tonight Leeds Evening Post:

Fabian Hamilton MP (Leeds North East): "It would completely destroy the atmosphere of the election if the count is done the following day. I do feel sorry for the staff who have to work long hours but it's not beyond the wit of local authorities to ensure that those staff who do the counting during the night are not the same people who are the tellers at the polling stations. There is no excuse – if they do not do it then Parliament needs to step in."

Mary Creagh MP (Wakefield): "If people think that forming a government is important, then it is important that we have a government from day one, not day two."

George Mudie MP (Leeds East): "I am a traditionalist in terms of thinking that the election night is part of the process. It is something that brings people in to view politics when they would not normally do so."

Rachel Reeves (Labour PPC for Leeds West): "We want to engage with people in politics and one of the things that does engage people is sitting up on election night and watching the results. If they have to wait until the next day when people are at work they will not be able to participate in that and it will be a shame for democracy and the democratic process. People have a right to have an MP by the Friday morning."

Jonathan Isaby

The support for Saving General Election Night continues to grow by the day, and this morning The Independent runs a story focusing on the issue, with extremely positive signs that the Government wants to see the campaign succeed:

The Justice Secretary Jack Straw is considering writing to returning officers to urge them to retain Thursday night counts. An aide told The Independent: "He is inherently sympathetic. He understands why people regard it as part of the fabric of the political system."

The paper also reports similarly sympathetic noises coming from a senior member of the Liberal Democrats:

Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrats' chair of Campaigns and Communications, said: "It's important for democracy that you retain the excitement of election night and brings the process of voting to a climax."

These interventions follow Tuesday's call by Eric Pickles, the Conservative Party chairman, for the parties to work together to ensure the continuation of Thursday night counts at the next general election.

There is more coverage of the campaign in the Cornish press this morning, the Kent Messenger and the issue has managed to unite all three parties in Reading, where politics is notoriously confrontational.

Yesterday I appeared on BBC Radio Wales's lunchtime phone-in show to discuss the campaign: you can listen again here (the discussion begins 55 minutes, 30 seconds in and continues for about half an hour). Among the contributors was Clwyd West's Conservative MP David Jones, who has now blogged his support for the campaign.

The issue of Thursday night counts even appears to have excited those as far away as Budapest according to this report from one of Hungary's newspapers this morning:

"Ezzel ellentétben Jonathan Isaby vezetésével sokan mindent megpróbálnak megtenni annak érdekében, hogy megmaradjon a hagyományos választások éjszakája és annak minden izgalma. Ennek érdekében Save General Election Night néven még Facebook csoportot is létrehozott Isaby."

But despite the positive hearing the campaign appears to be getting inside the Ministry of Justice, we must continue to pile on the pressure, not least because the Electoral Commission appears to be erring on the side of supporting the defeatism of Returning Officers who want to switch to Friday counts. Here are extracts from a statement sent to me by the Electoral Commission yesterday:

"We all enjoy the excitement of election night and understand the completely natural response from candidates and local party workers, who have worked hard in close fought contests, to get the result as soon as possible.  But, our utmost concern has to be to ensure that the count is accurate and that voters have confidence in the election result... I am sure you will appreciate that managing an election count is a complicated task and Returning Officers will take into account a range of local factors when making their decision on when the count should take place. It is entirely appropriate for Returning Officers to decide to hold the count on a Friday if they are clear that this is necessary to ensure an accurate result.

Yesterday was another busy day for Save General Election Night with membership of the Facebook group now standing at 3,250.

I wrote this piece for the Guardian's Comment is Free website and also appeared on Simon Mayo's lunchtime show on Radio 5 Live to promote the issue, which you can listen to here (for the next six days). The item is 53 minutes and 35 seconds into the programme and I appear alongside Gerry Keating from Newcastle City Council who tries to defend its decision to hold the count on the Friday.

More evidence of the emerging cross-party consensus at Westminster on the issue of retaining Thursday night election counts came as PoliticsHome polled its illustrious insiders' panel on this very question. As the table below shows, the PHi 100 survey of senior politicians, journalists and insiders from think-tanks and political parties found that nearly three quarters of those questioned - 73% - backed the aim of our campaign.

When asked yesterday about the growing number of Friday counts planned in Norfolk, Charles Clarke, the Labour MP for Norwich South MP and former Home Secretary told the Eastern Daily Press:

"I hope that the local authorities will decide to carry out the counts on the Thursday night, as has been traditional. It both maintains a correct sense of excitement and interest in the election result and also enables the necessary constitutional and political judgements to be made quickly and in the national interest.”

There is also further coverage of the campaign and the impact that Friday counts would have in Wales in today's Western Mail and the West Country in the Western Morning News.

In the meantime, please keep inviting your friends to join the Facebook group and if you haven't yet let us know when your local council is planning on counting the vote, please email me with the details.

Jonathan Isaby

Noon update: Adam Boulton has blogged about the campaign here

Yesterday was another busy day for the cross-party campaign to Save General Election Night. It secured the official backing of Tory Party chairman Eric Pickles on behalf of the Conservative Party, which ensured our efforts received more coverage on the BBC website and a hit in this morning's Daily Telegraph.

We posted the full text of Eric Pickles' letter to Jack Straw on the site, in which he called for all parties to work together for a consensus to ensure that the votes cast at the next general election are counted on the Thursday night.

This morning I can reveal that the campaign has secured the support of the political editor of Sky News, Adam Boulton, on behalf of the whole Sky News team. He sends us this message:

“One of the beauties of the British Political system is its crispness. We all know that real people can count votes quicker than machines. The excitement of finding out live who is going to govern us just a few hours after polls close has always been the best bit of our election night programmes on Sky News. Pull your fingers out returning officers! Sky News backs the Save General Election Night campaign 100%.”

The Facebook group has just signed up its 2,500th supporter and now includes feedback from members relating to over 160 constituencies (in the latest news section). Whilst I'm delighted that 83 have confirmed they are counting on the Thursday night, and so far only ten have confirmed they currently intend counting on the Friday, there are 70 constituencies which are yet to say either way - many of which are considering the Friday option.

That demonstrates the urgent need for us to continue making the case for the Thursday count - and also that there are still a large number of constituencies for which we have no information. Can I repeat my plea for you to get in touch with your local council, find out their intentions and let me know what you discover.

The issue has now caught the attention of several regional newspapers, with coverage in the Western Morning News, Gloucestershire Echo and Western Mail. I will also be writing a piece for the Guardian's Comment is Free website later today.

Following on from my appearance on Radio 4's PM programme on Monday, yesterday's programme featured a presiding officer from counts in Leicestershire, Rosalind Willatts, being interviewed to defend those wanting to switch to Friday counts. Her arguments were, quite frankly, pathetic. Click here (54 minutes, 45 seconds in) to listen - the link will be live for seven days.

Newcastle Conservatives have started to mobilise in their opposition to the council's decision there to count on the Friday. Meanwhile, Deidre Alden, a Birmingham councillor and parliamentary candidate, raised the campaign on the floor of a full meeting of Birmingham City Council yesterday. She invited the deputy leader of the council to guarantee that the city's ten parliamentary seats would continue to count on the Thursday night at the next election. As Cllr Alden reports on her blog, he said that there was “no reason why Birmingham  should not continue its proud tradition of counting on the night” and confirmed that it would continue to do so. Great news!

Let me know what you are doing in your area to fight to save general election night.

Check back here and at the Facebook group for regular updates - and invite all your friends to join the Facebook group if you are yet to do so!

Jonathan Isaby

As duty editor of ConservativeHome for this morning, covering the mini-reshuffle of the Tory front bench and David Cameron's speech on cutting the cost of politics, I had intended waiting until Tim took over the site at lunchtime before spending some time contacting a variety of politicians to seek endorsements for the Save General Election Night campaign.

Since my dawn update, membership of the Facebook group has risen to almost 2,000 and a number of other bloggers from across the political spectrum have endorsed the campaign including Anthony Painter at LabourList, The Standard's Paul Waugh,  Malc in the Burgh, The Red Rag and Steve Tierney.

So I was surprised and delighted in equal measure a short time ago to get sight of the letter that Conservative Party chairman Eric Pickles is today sending to Jack Straw, the Secretary of State for Justice. Not only does Mr Pickles endorse the cross-party Facebook campaign on behalf of the Conservative Party, but he expresses a desire for all the mainstream political parties to work together to retain Thursday night counts at the forthcoming general election.

He states:

"The arguments against such a change [to Friday counts] are concisely listed at the cross-party Facebook group to Save General Election Night. The Conservative Party endorses this campaign.

"At a time when interest and trust in politics is at such a low ebb, it would be a retrograde step to suck all the interest out of the most important and vibrant part of our democratic process. One only has to look to June's European Parliamentary Count to see how the whole process had all the impact of a soggy sparkler on Bonfire Night.

"I believe there is significant cross-party and cross-media support for general election counts to take place in the evening as they traditionally have (with the small exceptions of the most distant and remote parts of the United Kingdom)."

"Given central government is paying for the cost of the count, it is not unreasonable that some guidelines are given on how such a count should be conducted... Consequently, I would ask that the Ministry of Justice, in consultation with the Electoral Commission and the mainstream political parties, seeks to issue new guidance to Electoral Returning Officers to encourage traditional practices to be maintained. If you disagree, at the very least, I hope you would agree that this matter should be properly debated as soon as the House returns next month."

This is extremely encouraging news and the full text of the letter is below. Watch this space for further developments!

Jonathan Isaby

Dear Jack,

Timing of election counts for the forthcoming general election

It has become apparent that there are an increasing number of Electoral Returning Officers who are considering moving the timing of the general election count - from the evening of polling day to the day after polling day. There has been no discussion or consideration by Parliament or the Political Parties Panel of such a change.

It was a great first day for the Save General Election Night Campaign.

Launched yesterday morning with this post from me and elsewhere by blogging Labour MP Tom Harris and Mark Pack of Lib Dem Voice, the Facebook group attracted more than 100 supporters an hour, bringing its tally to over 1,500 members by the end of the day.

They include MPs, candidates and activists from all the political parties, but also hundreds of voters who simply share the desire of we political activists who started the campaign that the votes cast at the general election should be counted as soon as the poll closes at 10pm on the Thursday night, and not left until the Friday morning.

Mark Pack has handily summarised much of the reaction from the blogosphere (as well as answering some of the criticisms of our camapign), but thanks to the many bloggers who have so far highlighted our efforts, including Iain Dale, Liberal England, The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow, Nadine Dorries MP, Andrew Reeves, J Arthur MacNumpty, James Manning, Rene Kinzett, David Skelton, Young Tory, The World of JR, Charlie Edwards, ToryBoys and Thunder Dragon. Apologies to those I have neglected to mention.

Later in the day, the BBC website picked up on the campaign, which led to me being interviewed on Radio 4's PM Programme about it.

In the latest news section of the Facebook group - please join if you're not already signed up - I am collating details of which constituencies are intending counting on the Thursday, which are planning on doing so on the Friday, and which are yet to decide. If you haven't done so yet - and we don't have any information posted yet on the Facebook page about your constituency - please contact your local council's electoral services department to find out their intentions as regards the counting of the votes at the general election, and let me know so that we can publicise who needs to be lobbied.

It was especially encouraging to discover yesterday that Northern Ireland is a beacon of progress in this matter, in that the 18 seats which have counted on the Friday for as long as I can remember have all opted to do so on the Thursday night at the next general election.

Later today I hope to be able to publish some views from some senior political figures on the campaign.

Jonathan Isaby

Yesterday's Sunday Times pre-empted this post and its accompanying Facebook campaign I was intending to start later in the week, but since the blogosphere has started discussing the issue, here goes: future General Election nights are under threat as an increasing number of councils are planning on counting the votes cast on the Friday morning rather than the Thursday night.

The Sunday Times suggests that as many as a quarter of local authorities could end up holding a Friday count. The paper names Newcastle-upon-Tyne as a prime example, but conversations I have had suggest that that much of Norfolk, West Yorkshire and maybe all of Cornwall could count on the Friday, with it under consideration in a number of other areas, including much of North West England.

I am fiercely opposed to this development, as are, I believe, large number of political activists of all parties - as well as the broadcasters who bring election nights to life on television and radio (in one of my previous lives I was at the BBC and worked behind the scenes on the 2001 election night programme), not to mention voters up and down the country.

The cross-party Facebook campaign I have started is also backed at its inception by blogging Labour MP Tom Harris and Mark Pack of Lib Dem Voice.

Here are a few of my reasons for the campaign against more Friday counts:

We want to know who won as soon as possible. Quite simply, once the polling stations have closed I want to know the result as soon as possible, and I imagine most activists and candidates who have been pounding the streets for a month feel the same way, as well as voters who have cast their ballots. And this argument holds on two levels. Firstly, on a constituency level, but more significantly on a national level: if the general election is going to be close, then it is possible that if lots of seats are not counting until Friday - especially marginals - then we will not know who is going to be Prime Minister, form the Government etc until Friday lunchtime.

It would be a backward step. In the digital 24-hour media age when we are used to getting news quicker than ever before, it would be a backward step to delay election counts. If anything, we should be seeking to persuade the few constituencies which historically count on a Friday to bring their counts forward to Thursday night.

Fewer people will be able to follow the results coming in. Sitting around the television into the early hours is an election night ritual for people across the land, many of whom do not perhaps follow politics as closely as some of us. But if there are fewer results to announce - and the potential of not getting a national result to boot - they are less likely to bother tuning in and when the remaining constituencies declare and the national result becomes apparent on the Friday, anyone at work is not going to be able to witness the climax of the electoral process.

The TV coverage of the election will suffer. The outside broadcasts (OBs) at counts up and down the country have provided many a memorable moment over they years, and they bring the results to life. However, the reason why broadcasters are able to provide such a variety of OBs is that there is no other call on the satellite trucks and outside broadcast units during the night. If there were an increasing number of counts on Friday during the day, fewer of them would have cameras present, thereby reducing the ability of the broadcasters to give full coverage of the results.

Not so long ago the idea of Peter Mandelson leaving his post as European Commissioner in Brussels to be made a peer by his old foe Gordon Brown and appointed to the Cabinet for a third time would have seemed fanciful - and yet it came to pass.

So just how likely a scenario is it that the Secretary of State for Business etc etc will seek to quit the Lords, return to the Commons and even make a bid for the Labour leadership?

The key to any of that happening would be the passing of an amendment to the constitutional renewal bill which would allow a life peer to leave the House of Lords and stand for election to the lower House.

And the Tory leader in the Upper House, Lord Strathclyde, has today indicated to the Financial Times that Conservatives would seek to scupper any such move:

Lord Strathclyde, Tory leader in the Lords, said he would try to ensure that the first secretary remains “trapped” – Lord ­Mandelson’s description – on the red benches. He said the retirement clause would allow people to take a peerage as a life peer, take the title and then to walk away if they decided they no longer wanted to fulfil their duties. “We will definitely oppose it.”

He said that life peers who can no longer attend the Lords can take a “leave of absence”, although only a small number make use of the provision. “There’s a scheme and it works well. If there was a demand for it, why don’t more people use it?”

Although Lord Strathclyde may not be able to stop the bill coming into force before the election, he could delay its ­passage – possibly until after Christmas. The timing of the bill’s enactment could be crucial. An autumn coup against Mr Brown, although widely seen as unlikely, could cast Lord Mandelson as an unwilling executioner. But a leadership contest after a general election defeat might allow enough time for the bill to come into force and for the first secretary to be reincarnated as the MP for a safe seat.

Whilst I find this all very unlikely, the FT points out that Mandy has "repeatedly refused to deny that he might use the new legal provision to escape the upper house".

But would there in any case be such a thing as a "safe seat" for Peter Mandelson? The election anoraks amongst us will recall what happened to newly-appointed Foreign Secretary Patrick Gordon Walker at the 1965 Leyton by-election...

Jonathan Isaby