thetorydiary: January 2010

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January 2010

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Immigration could be the issue that ensures a decisive Conservative victory

An important YouGov poll, appearing in The Sunday Times, and commissioned by MigrationWatch suggests that a strong line on immigration might be decisive for the Conservatives at the next election. I quote from the MigrationWatch press release:

"The poll found that 44% in Labour held marginals would be more likely (23% much more likely) to vote Conservative if David Cameron were to say that a Conservative government would reduce immigration to 50,000 or below in order to keep the UK population below 70 million. Only 5% in these seats were less likely (2% much less likely) to vote Conservative in these circumstances. In Lib Dem held seats the response was almost the same."

The Conservatives don't need to say too much more and they certainly don't need to shout as loud as Michael Howard in 2005 but the issue could firm up the party's prospects and give them a key retail message for doorsteps.

Continue reading "Immigration could be the issue that ensures a decisive Conservative victory" »

Posted at 22:29 | Permalink | Comments (32)

Tories up 4% (and 13% ahead) in new ComRes poll

The Others are on 10%; the Greens on 3% and UKIP and the BNP both on 2%.

The new poll confirms the hardening of the Conservative vote since the start of the year.

The Conservatives are now at 40% or more in all polls from the major pollsters:

41% according to Populus;
40% according to Angus Reid;
42% according to YouGov;
40% according to ICM;
43% according to Ipsos MORI;
and tonight, 42% from ComRes.

Tim Montgomerie

9.15pm A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times suggests a slightly tighter contest:

Posted at 19:30 in Opinion polls | Permalink | Comments (34)

Conservative MEP and Times attack "un-British" UKIP

Sajjad Karim, Tory MEP for the Conservatives, has said that UKIP's proposed burkha ban is "un-British". This morning's Times reported that the UK Independence Party wants to ban the burkha and the niqab - "claiming they affront British values."

In an editorial The Times slams UKIP:

"What is inconsistent with British values is picking on people quietly going about their business in religious garb of their own choice and banning it. If UKIP properly understood this country, it would appreciate that. There are Islamists who doubtless wish to ban Eurosceptics wearing tweed jackets over v-neck jumpers and checked shirts. And The Times would defend UKIP against such calls because freedom to worship, and freedom of speech, is the British value that matters above all others."

Mr Karim, a defector from the Liberal Democrats, said this in a press release released on behalf of all Tory MEPs:

"To ban a symbol of someone's faith both in public and private is fundamentally un-British. Our country's tradition of tolerance and multi-culturalism are among its greatest strengths. All UKIP will create is ill-will, greater separation and a feeling that people who do not look like Lord Pearson or Nigel Farage are somehow not truly British. There are genuine concerns about race relations in parts of the UK, but they will only be overcome by mutual understanding, not ignorance."

From day one of his leadership of UKIP Lord Pearson has set out to add scepticism about the Islamification of Britain to UKIP's core theme of Euroscepticism. The tactic is designed to counter the BNP's infiltration of the UKIP vote.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has floated the idea of a burkha ban.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 14:51 in BNP, Race and multiculturalism, UKIP | Permalink | Comments (178)

Tories may leave Human Rights Act untouched for five years

The Daily Express' Patrick O'Flynn reports something I've heard in recent days: reform of the Human Rights Act is slipping down the list of Tory priorities:

"A couple of years back, during the furore over Britain’s inability to deport Learco Chindamo, the murderer of head teacher Philip Lawrence, Cameron appeared to have real fire in his belly.
He described Labour’s Human Rights Act as “rotten at the core”. “It has to go,” he added, “it’s a glaring example of what is going wrong in our country.” Amen to that. But later it transpired that Cameron’s proposed alternative, a British Bill of Rights, would change very little as he was not proposing to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights (the body that this week declared police stop-and-search tactics illegal).
Now things are even worse. Cameron’s Shadow Justice Secretary Dominic Grieve has kicked what was meant to be an early pledge into the long grass, telling his liberal lawyer pals: “I don’t wish to see the matter rushed. I would like to think that we can do it in the course of a Parliament.”
The dripping wet Grieve has even pledged to publish a green paper – preliminary form of consultation – on the issue, which suggests the HRA may remain intact throughout a first Cameron term."

Putting aside the unnecessarily pejorative references to Dominic Grieve it is certainly true that he is much less supportive of reform than Nick Herbert, who was Tory Justice spokesman before him.

Also leading resistance to reform is Ken Clarke. Before he joined David Cameron's shadow cabinet he described the proposal for a British Bill of Rights as "xenophobic and legal nonsense".

Tim Montgomerie

> Dominic Grieve from April 2009: It's the interpretation of the Human Rights Act that's the problem - not the ECHR itself

Posted at 08:31 in Law and order | Permalink | Comments (132)

Friday, January 15, 2010

Tories set for nine gains in Wales

[With apologies that this is the first General Election Brief since Monday. The Brief was a casualty of a jam-packed few days.]

More progress for Welsh Tories. A YouGov poll last night for ITV Wales had the Tories on 32% and Labour on 35%. That would mean nine more Tory MPs from Wales if translated into a uniform swing on election day. UK Polling Report has more.

Labour plan five new pledges for the General Election campaign. Brown is drafting five reasons to vote Labour and five reasons to reject the Conservatives. Conservatives don't necessarily need a pledge card but we need to sharpen our doorstep message a little.

Cut, cut, cut, cut. Overnight, there were newspaper stories of immediate cuts from the Conservatives, cuts in the arts budget, cuts in the aid budget, cuts in middle class welfare, cuts in defence. [See today's ConHome front page]. But The Economist still wasn't satisfied: "The squeezes [George Osborne] identified amounted to £7 billion ($11.4 billion) a year. In 2009-10 the deficit is £178 billion."

Cameron underperforming at PMQs. The Evening Standard doesn't think Cameron has really won a PMQs for two or three months. I can't disagree but I don't think it really matters. He normally provides enough of a strong soundbite for the news bulletins but it's not helping rock bottom morale in the parliamentary party.

Does Grant Shapps run on Duracell? His hit rate in the media is extraordinary. He had a big splash in yesterday's Sun (and other newspapers) which showed that government spending on propaganda advertising was soaring in this election run-up. Labour ministers, said Mr Shapps, "should not be raiding the taxpayers' pockets to try to keep their own seats."

Nasty Nick. The Liberal Democrat leader told Attitude, a gay lifestyle magazine, that David Cameron was "someone who is “very difficult to trust” on the issue of gay rights". I wonder if he'll play as dirty in the debates?

Watching the media, watching us. One of the most important roles that the blogosphere can play in the election campaign is to keep an eye out for media bias. I knocked The Telegraph yesterday evening for a story that The Mirror would have been proud of (in fact, it was written by an ex-Mirror journalist now working for the Barclay Bros). Iain Dale has a bigger target today. He's got the BBC's One Show in his cross-hairs for an appalling piece of anti-Tory bias last night.

Hat tip to the Left for the mydavidcameron thing. Naughty, but funny, it's got coverage everywhere - online and in print. My favourite is below:

Tim Montgomerie

> Previous General Election Brief

Posted at 18:38 in General Election Brief, Wales | Permalink | Comments (24)

The Thin Red Line will get even thinner under David Cameron

David Cameron, Liam Fox and Pauline Neville-Jones launched the Conservative Party's National Security strategy this morning. It's impossible to disagree with anything Cameron said ...[We need more co-ordination of policy and we need the urgent defence (and security) review that Labour has failed to hold]... It's what Cameron didn't say this morning that is so worrying.

I keep trying to bite my tongue on the terrible implications for budgets like defence of the party's NHS spendathon pledge. Fraser Nelson is not so reticent. The Tories will have to cut the RAF and Navy to the bone in order to save the Army. The principal culprit for this is, of course, Gordon Brown but the cuts would not need to be so savage if all of Whitehall was sharing the pain more fairly.

Tim Montgomerie

> Download a PDF of the National Security Green Paper.

Posted at 12:54 in Defence, Foreign affairs | Permalink | Comments (70)

The blogosphere has a new star in Norman Tebbit

He's only been blogging for three days but it already looks like the blogosphere has found a new star; Lord Tebbit. His posts are full of his trademark strong views but also a willingness to pick up and engage with comments left by his readers.

Here are extracts from his first three contributions:

Blogging on the BNP: "So what about the BNP? The trouble is that it is a national socialist party. Take a look at its 2005 election manifesto. You won’t find much about reducing the power of the state and increasing that of the individual. It has a curiously dated air of the 1960s and 1970s, with talk of controlling the commanding heights of the economy and building barriers to trade. To be kind to the BNP, one might call it a corporatist party. To put it more roughly, one might say that it is a fascist party, a Left-wing authoritarian party. One thing is certain. As a socialist party, the BNP can only be part of the problem, not part of the solution."

Against multiculturalism: "Having overcome rivalry between Protestants and Catholics, and learned to live in harmony with the Jewish faith and other minority religions and cultures by accepting a society based on Judaeo-Christian principles, we should be wary of those who seek to implant a rival culture with its own legal systems and standards of public behaviour to keep separate its followers from the mainstream of our majority. Apartheid is made no better by being voluntary."

Call me Norm: "London cabbies usually address me as “Norm”, to many others I’m “Lord T” , the very correct use “My Lord”, the less so, “Oy, you” – but please not Sir Norman or Mr Tebbit, as they are simply not correct."

Praise for Nick Clegg: "I hate to say it, but only one party leader seems to have grasped that, if you construct a system where unskilled people are worse off by taking a job than by staying on welfare, they remain trapped in poverty – and that is Nick Clegg. Lord knows, Frank Field and Iain Duncan Smith spelled it out in words and figures that only a simpleton could fail to understand, but the two main parties are unwilling to bite on the bullet and commit themseves to raising the income tax threshold from £6,475 to something like £10,000 or £12,000."

Absence of grit: "About the only leading politican to show any [grit] these days seems to be the much-abused Prime Minister Brown. Grittiness and the stiff upper lip seem to have been replaced with emotional incontinence, political correctness and open-necked shirts worn with well cut suits."

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 09:00 in Big Beasts, Blogs, websites, e-etc | Permalink | Comments (81)

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Outrageous news: Private businessman donates money to Conservatives

"Andrew Lansley, the shadow health secretary, is being bankrolled by the head of one of the biggest private health providers to the NHS.
John Nash, the chairman of Care UK, gave £21,000 to fund Andrew Lansley’s personal office in November. Mr Nash, a private equity tycoon, also manages several other businesses providing services to the NHS and stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Conservative policies to increase the use of private health providers.
Andy Burnham, the Heath Secretary, is planning to write to David Cameron, the party leader, asking for him to guarantee that Conservative health policy is not dictated by private health care companies.
A senior Labour source said: "This raises serious questions about Andrew Lansley's judgement and it is difficult to see how he can continue on in his role as shadow health secretary when it would appear that a private health care company is helping to fund the development of Tory healthy policy.
"David Cameron claims that the Tories are now the party of the NHS - it makes his claim look more absurd than ever. How can the public trust Cameron on the NHS when his health secretary is hand in glove with a big beneficiary of Tory health policy? There is an apparent contradiction at the heart of Tory health policy and we urgently need to hear a detailed read out of what this money was donated in exchange for or the money should be refunded..."

Guess what newspaper published that?

Perhaps the anti private healthcare flavour gives you a clue?

Perhaps the extended quote from a Labour source points you to The Mirror?

Or is the giveaway in the decision to relegate the explanation from CCHQ to the final two paragraphs?

The newspaper that published this anti-Tory drivel is... The Telegraph.

Tim Montgomerie

PS If only the private healthcare industry was more influential on Tory health policy! I happen to know John Nash. He's a generous man who has supported a range of interests (including the Centre for Social Justice) from which he can expect no personal gain.

Posted at 21:59 in Fleet Street, Health | Permalink | Comments (39)

If David Cameron had a pledge card...

...it shouldn't necessarily include the most transformational pledges (eg Michael Gove's schools policy and Chris Grayling's plan to make the police democratically accountable) but the most likely to move votes.

Here's a first draft:

It should also probably include one big picture promise like "An emergency growth plan to cut Labour's budget deficit."

What do you think?

Tim Montgomerie

> Today's LeftWatch: Brown unveils five doorstep promises... and five attacks on the Conservatives

Posted at 15:03 in Campaign materials | Permalink | Comments (93)

76% of Tory members urge Cameron to focus on energy bills, not climate change

Three-quarters of Tory members believe that energy prices are likely to be a bigger political issue by the time of the next General election than climate change according to a ConservativeHome survey. Just 10% think climate change will weigh more heavily on voters' minds.

Speaking at a meeting of centre right think tanks and campaigners yesterday, Matt Sinclair of The TaxPayers' Alliance warned that voters would be furious if their energy bills rise because of green measures at the same time that their pay is being squeezed and their taxes rising.

At the same meeting Lord Lawson was very upbeat about the prospects of climate change sceptics prevailing. There is no way he said that a nation like India, with 30% of its population lacking any electricity, will not increase its energy usage in the years ahead. He also said that it would be too expensive for them to use renewable fuels. Their priority - rightly - would be to increase the health and welfare of their own people.

In this global context a Conservative government needs to be very careful about increasing the energy bills of UK consumers without any hope of reducing the 'global carbon footprint'.

The results are summarised below alongside two results on CCTV and smoking in private clubs:

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 09:02 in Energy, Environment | Permalink | Comments (161)

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

More than half of GPs now say they will vote Conservative

Around this time last year I noted a survey suggesting that 50% of GPs would vote Conservative.

Twelve months later and a similar poll of GPs, conducted by GP newspaper and published on HealthcareRepublic.com, shows that the figure has now risen to 53%:

"The majority of UK GPs now favour Conservative health policy despite opposing Tory plans to impose commissioning responsibility on the profession, according to a poll for GP newspaper. Our poll of GPs' voting intentions reveals just 15% will vote Labour and only 17% prefer Labour's health policies.
"The survey of 314 GPs found 53% plan to vote Conservative this year, compared with just 24% in 1997. GPs are unhappy with many of Labour's flagship policies, with 59% condemning practice-based commissioning as a ‘failure' and 78% opposed to plans to scrap practice boundaries."

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 15:08 | Permalink | Comments (22)

David Cameron teases Brown at PMQs about Labour MPs' lack of confidence in him as the Prime Minister again fails to answer straight question on the economy

Jonathan Isaby's verdict:

"A narrow win for Cameron, with the Opposition Leader having opted to use two questions on consensual questions about the winter weather before going on the offensive. Brown has started coming up with better one-liners recently, but at the end of the day he is simply failing to give straight answers to straight questions from Cameron and others about the budget deficit, the state of the economy and what he is going to do about it."

12.02 Gordon Brown pays tribute to the latest soldier to die in Afghanistan and also pays tribute o the Mirror journalist killed in Afghanistan this week. He also says the Government will respond with emergency aid and finance to Haiti after the earthquake.

12.04 Tory MP Bill Wiggin asks if Brown regrets the huge budget deficit with which the country entered the recession. Brown denies this, saying it was the second lowest in the G7.

12.06 David Cameron echoes Brown's tributes. He praises the emergency services' response to the cold weather, but wants a reassurance that everything that can be done is being done to ensure that salt supplies get where they are needed.

12.08 Brown says the country is coming together as one to respond to the difficulties and says that one of the salt producers has said today they will be producing more and that more will be imported as well.

12.09 Cameron wants to know what will be done to review the response, involving those in local government and others.

12.10 Brown says there will indeed be a review of all the arrangements.

12.11 Cameron opts not to rise again, presumably aiming to ask some more combative questions shortly...

12.12 Nick Clegg also echoes the tributes of the other leaders. He raises the Chilcot Inquiry - and wants Brown to volunteer to give evidence before the General Election. Brown says he is happy to give evidence whenever he is called but that it should be a matter or Chilcot to decide. Clegg says it is a matter for Brown's conscience, having signed the cheques to send British troops into Iraq. What has he got to hide, says Clegg. Nothing, says Brown. He insists he will go to give evidence when called.

12.19 Cameron is back. He asks how Brown has changed the way he is governing after last week's call for a change in leadership. Brown says Cameron looks different from the poster he has seen. We have policies, he has posters, says Brown.

12.20 Cameron says that when it comes to pictures, how many Labour MPs will use his picture on their leaflets? Four put their hands up. He repeats the point made by Bill Wiggin earlier and says wants a concession it was wrong to claim boom and bust had been abolished. Brown does not give it.

12.22 Cameron: We now know what Douglas Alexander thinks of Brown. He uses an alleged quote of Alexander's attacking Harriet Harman. Then he starts listing how long it took for ministers to back Brown last Wednesday. He then asks Brown to admit the truth on spending cuts. Will he repeat Alistair Darling's words about them being the deepest for 20 years?

12.24 Brown claims the Tories are mixed up on policy and then retreats to attacking the inheritance tax pledge.

12.25 Cameron says that he won't change the way he governs and that the conclusion he can make is that the cabinet are too disloyal to support him and too incompetent to remove him. It's time for a general election.

12.26 Brown repeats Cameron's apology for "messing up" on policy on supporting marriage. He then concludes that the Tories' policies are those of the 1980s and not fit for 2010.

12.31 Tory MP Andrew Murrison asks the Prime Minister's view about "the situation in the Western Sahara". Brown seems unsure as to what specific issue he is referring to and talks in general terms about deterring terrorism.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 11:40 in PMQs | Permalink | Comments (99)

Andrew Lansley explains how a Department of Public Health would provide "national leadership in the fight to prevent ill health and promote well-being"

There has already been coverage this morning of Andrew Lansley's proposal to measure alcohol content in drinks by centilitres rather than units, and to put calorie content on labels on alcoholic drinks.

Yet that was just the initial headline-grabbing measure to come out of a speech he has given to the think-tank 2020Health to launch a new green paper on public health.

It is already known that the Department for Health will be renamed the Department for Public Health if the Conservatives win the General Election, and what Mr Lansley has sought to do today is to indicate how a future Conservative Government would refocus the department's efforts.

He said:

"We will refocus the role of the Department of Health – instead of micro-managing clinicians’ daily activity through endless circulars and directives, we will focus on providing national leadership in the fight to prevent ill health and promote well-being. Public health success relies on the success of other government goals such as poverty reduction and better housing conditions. So our public health strategy will cut across departmental boundaries, and be coordinated by a Secretary of State for Public Health at Cabinet level.
"We also need local leadership. Our overall vision for public health reform is unashamedly decentralised. The causes of ill health and health inequalities are rooted in local issues such as housing, education, worklessness and family breakdown. So we believe that the most effective thing Government can do is empower local communities to identify local needs and tailor solutions to local problems. That’s why we will realise our new Public Health Service through a strong local infrastructure, and support it with separate, ring-fenced budgets devoted specifically to tackling these challenges.

Continue reading "Andrew Lansley explains how a Department of Public Health would provide "national leadership in the fight to prevent ill health and promote well-being"" »

Posted at 10:57 in Health | Permalink | Comments (69)

The social and cultural gap opening up over marriage

I’m a strong supporter of recognising marriage in the tax system. Tim made the case for the policy on this site last week, and I’ve nothing to add to the arguments he put. I want, instead, to write about selling the policy, rather than the ideals behind it.

Consider some figures:

In 1991, 74 per cent of over-16s in England and Wales had been married. By 2008, this had fallen to 65 per cent.
In 1991, 58 per cent of people were currently married. By 2008, this had fallen to 48 per cent.
In 1991, 70 per cent of children were born to married couples. By 2008 this had fallen to 55 per cent.

These Office of National Statistics figures suggest a simple picture of less marriage, more cohabitation and more births outside marriage – especially among younger people (The ONS has found that the proportion of single women aged 18 to 49 who were cohabiting rose from 18 per cent in 1979 to 35 per cent by 2001).

But hang on a moment. The picture’s more complex.

Yes, roughly 45 per cent of marriages ended in divorce in 2005 - up from 34 per cent in 1979. However, it’s worth noting that some of these marriages were of course re-marriages. I haven’t found a reliable figure for how many divorcees re-marry, although one estimate is as high as 50 per cent.
So if 45 per cent of all marriages end in divorce, what proportion of first marriages end in divorce? Again, I haven’t found a firm figure, though one estimate comes in as low as 15 per cent. The ONS estimates that the breakdown rate for second marriages is around 61 per cent compared to 41 per cent for all marriages.
ONS figures confirm that the longer a couple have been married, the lower the likelihood of divorce. Fewer than 31 per cent of marriages that survive for a decade will end in divorce, and only 15 per cent of those married for 20 years or more end up divorcing.

Obviously, these figures are selective, but considered with others they suggest three points.

Continue reading "The social and cultural gap opening up over marriage" »

Posted at 08:59 in Family and relationships | Permalink | Comments (32)

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Boris Johnson debates Alan Johnson to put the case against Proportional Representation

Last night Policy Exchange hosted a debate to discuss the merits of replacing the First Past The Post electoral system with Proportional Representation. Billed as Johnson v Johnson, the case for PR was put by Home Secretary Alan Johnson, supported by Vernon Bogdanor, with Boris Johnson and Lord Norton of Louth backing First Past The Post.

Alan Johnson admitted that he was missing Gordon Brown's appearance before the PLP in order to keep the engagement and during his speech appeared to suggest that Labour cannot win the general election when he said that we "may well get" a coalition government at the impending general election. He went to say that he had no problem with coalition governments and lamented the fact that he had thus far failed to persuade his party to hold a referendum on electoral reform, expressing his personal preference for the AV PLus system recommended by the Jenkins Commission.

To do Boris's reply justice, I merely offer you the full transcript of his speech...

Ladies and gents, I want to congratulate Policy Exchange and I want to begin by extending my sympathies to my cousin Alan for the heroic way in which he is enduring his ordeal.
Everybody or virtually everybody in Westminster knows that the best thing for the Labour party and the country would be the speedy removal of Gordon Brown. Everybody knows that my cousin Alan is far and away the best man to fill his shoes and across Britain there are men and women yearning for the cabinet to summon up the gumption and do their duty by party and by country to go into No 10, where Gordon waits, muttering with his head in his hands, like Marlon Brando at the end of Apocalypse Now and terminate his command.
What do we get instead? Nothing but muttering and moaning and the ludicrous rubber dagger plots of Hoon and Hewitt and a cabinet reduced to a hopeless coalition of the untrustworthy and the dithering. Not since the waters retired from the face of the earth has this country seen such a display of protoplasmic invertebracy and as the dying days of Labour drag on you may find it hard to believe that any system could produce a government more feeble, more indecisive more racked by internal feuding and division. And yet it could, my friends, if we were to follow cousin Alan and introduce PR.

Continue reading "Boris Johnson debates Alan Johnson to put the case against Proportional Representation" »

Posted at 13:25 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), Constitution and democracy | Permalink | Comments (63)

Boris throws down the gauntlet to George Osborne to abolish Labour's supertax on bankers' bonuses

Before Christmas, London Mayor Boris Johnson outlined his fear that Alistair Darling's 50% tax on bankers' bonuses over £25,000 risked "super-penalising" London.

But he has now upped the ante by suggesting that up to 9,000 bankers may leave the City as a result of the tax and that the capital and the country would be losing out.

He has written to Treasury Select Committee chairman, John McFall, demanding an urgent inquiry into the matter:

"One bank told my office that 1,600 of its staff had asked since the Pre-Budget Report for help in relocating from London. Another bank told me that it is considering moving 700 to 800 staff from London in the near future as a direct result of the bank payroll tax.
"Even if institutions decide not to move out of London entirely, many will chose to relocate key functions and personnel in other places around the world perceived to be more welcoming than the UK."

He estimates that 9,000 bankers leaving the City would lose the Government £1.2 billion in lost tax and National Insurance.

But whilst the mayor is voicing opposition to Labour Government policy, it would seem the day is fast approaching where there will be cohabitation between a Tory mayor and Tory Government.

And the Daily Mail interprets Boris Johnson's latest salvo as being equally aimed at the Conservatives:

"Mr Johnson threw down the gauntlet to Shadow Chancellor George Osborne to rule out extending the fiscal grab, which is meant to last for only one year.
"The Tories have no plans to dump the supertax, which could be worth up to £5 billion to Britain's embattled public finances."

Make no mistake, Boris is his own man and if David Cameron becomes Prime Minister, he is not going to be afraid of challenging him and his colleagues.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 08:44 in Boris Johnson (Mayor), Tax and spending | Permalink | Comments (101)

One week until ConservativeIntelligence's Tory manifesto conference

I apologise to regular ConHome readers for the price of this conference but the revenues generated by ConservativeIntelligence fund this website and ensure we provide a 'free-to-air' and expanding service.

Next Wednesday, 20th January ConservativeIntelligence will be holding a four hour conference on the 2010 Tory manifesto. At the conference we'll be publishing a comprehensive guide to Conservative policies that all attendees will take home with them.

The Head of Policy for the Conservative Party, Oliver Letwin MP, will open the conference with a thirty minute presentation.
Tim Montgomerie will deliver a keynote presentation on the policy changes likely to characterise any Tory government's first 100 days and also publish polling of 144 Tory candidates in target seats.
We'll look at the think tanks likely to be key influences on policy development and at the likely consequences for policy implementation if the Tory majority is very small.
At the conference the big themes of the Conservative manifesto will be dissected by a Q&A panel of Daniel Finkelstein (The Times), Jill Kirby (The Centre for Policy Studies) and Neil O'Brien (of Policy Exchange).
A second Q&A panel with Michael Fallon MP, Peter Lilley MP and Ian Taylor MP will examine the implementation challenge.
The manifesto guide itself is full of fascinating commentary. Stephan Shakespeare writes about the Post-Bureaucratic Age. Dan Hannan looks at the Tory localist agenda. James Forsyth examines David Cameron's approach to running Whitehall.
We list the Tory policy pledges for all key areas and twenty expert commentators from think tanks, academia and the business world evaluate the extent to which Tory policies are commensurate with the nation's challenges.

TO BOOK PLEASE CLICK HERE.

Posted at 08:30 in About ConHome | Permalink | Comments (11)

Monday, January 11, 2010

Tories 13% ahead in Populus poll despite half of voters thinking Cameron is on the side of the rich

A few other interesting findings from the Populus survey for The Times:

"Mr Cameron is seen to be on the side of the rich over ordinary people, by 50 to 42 per cent. By contrast, Mr Brown is seen as 64 per cent for ordinary people and 26 per cent for the rich."
"Mr Cameron and George Osborne are now most trusted to deal with the economy by 43 per cent, up two points since October, against 30 per cent for Mr Brown and Alistair Darling, up two points."
"Some 64 per cent of voters think Mr Cameron is better than his party, and just 24 per cent worse."
Re the Tory tax allowance for married couples, you ask a very slanted question and get the result they you want: "57 per cent, including 63 per cent of women, say it is not the place of government to promote one lifestyle over another."

A couple of hours ago we learnt that Angus Reid opinion polling has the Tories 16% ahead.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 20:16 in Opinion polls | Permalink | Comments (99)

A good day for Nick Clegg

A good day for the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg's decision to junk some of his party's favourite policies given the changed economic circumstances will have struck most voters as reasonable. Rather than specific policies, reasonableness and a moderation of tone is the LibDems' biggest advantage. Clegg will have reinforced that advantage today.

Frank Field offered some support for the Conservatives today. He turned up to David Cameron's Demos speech at the Conservatives' invitation. Report on speech here. FF is too much of a Labour man to ever defect to the Tories but he should definitely be invited to play a role in any Conservative government. He could take a job on welfare, the teaching of British history, democratic reform but I'd give him a job related to immigration.

David Cameron gave an excellent performance on Five Live this afternoon. Cross-examined by Richard Bacon and callers for an hour he came across as measured, warm and consistent. We should not underestimate the vote winner that Cameron is going to be for the Conservatives once the election campaign is up and running properly and voters are focused on a choice between him becoming PM and Brown staying at Number Ten.

CCHQ needs to reassure grassroots Conservatives on the shortlisting process for John Maples and other 2010 retirees. ConHome readers reacted furiously to John Maples' decision to stand down now and so disenfranchise his local party members in their selection of his successor. Maples has flicked the bird at party members once too often. He should not have any role in drawing up the shortlists of three for his seat and the other 11th hour seats needing a candidate. CCHQ doesn't need a row with local parties so close to an election.

Tories are 16% ahead in a new poll tonight. Read more about the Angus Reid survey at PoliticalBetting.com.

Tim Montgomerie

> Yesterday's Weekend General Election Brief

Posted at 18:25 in General Election Brief, Opinion polls | Permalink | Comments (38)

We need a state that helps people who do the right thing

I remember meeting some parents of inner city kids a few years ago. They told me that the whole system was weighted against them. Kids who misbehaved at school got more attention from teachers. Teenagers who terrorised the community were let off again and again by the police. "Welfare layabouts" were as well off as those do took low-paid jobs. People rarely got caught if they fiddled the system and those that did weren't punished. There was no reward for those families who did the right thing.

A society cannot survive if it is not built on people of good character. Many laissez faire conservatives argue against any government role in civilising young people but the costs of dysfunctionality are borne by every taxpayer. We all have an interest in reducing that dysfunctionality and promoting good character. We do so first by doing no harm (eg by stopping the disincentives to form two parent families) and second, and more controversially, by promoting good character (eg incentives to volunteer and donate to good causes).

Talking about good character is treacherous for politicians. Who can forget John Major's 'back to basics'? But Cameron tackled that issue head on in his remarks:

"I know this is tricky territory for a politician. We're not exactly paragons of virtue ourselves. But to those who think politics should stay away from issues of character and behaviour, I say this: When there are more than 120,000 deaths each year related to obesity, smoking, alcohol and drug misuse. When millions of schoolchildren miss out on learning because their classmates are constantly disruptive. When British families are drowning in nearly one and a half trillion pounds worth of personal debt. And then ask yourself: do any of these problems relate to personal choices that people make? Or are they all somehow soluble by top down government action, unrelated to what people actually choose to do? Can we hope to solve these problems if we just ignore character and behaviour?"

The question of the "how" is what Cameron begins to address in his speech to Demos and talks about policy action to promote families and good schools in particular. Read a full PDF of the speech.

I hope Demos won't be a major influence on this agenda. This Left-wing think tank has courted the Conservatives in recent times as they have striven to 'stay in business' during a period of Tory ascendancy. Their opposition to support for marriage suggests to me that they don't 'get it'.

Tim Montgomerie

PS When I set up the Renewing One Nation unit (the predecessor to the CSJ) inside Conservative HQ in 2000 we had three aims: Investing in Families, Strengthening Communities and, most relevant today, Building Character. David Willetts, Oliver Letwin, Gary Streeter and David Lidington were our principal sponsors at that time. My colleagues were Peter Franklin, Robert Halfon, Guy Hordern, Cameron Watt and Karen West. It is encouraging to these ideas taking off under David Cameron's leadership.

By way of further footnote our renewingoinenation.com website domain wasn't maintained and now promotes Thigh High Red Boots!

Posted at 12:09 in Compassionate conservatism, Family and relationships, Think tanks and campaigners | Permalink | Comments (81)

Tories 12% ahead in new YouGov survey

Within the detail in The Sun we find that 44% of voters think Labour's overall period in office has been poor or terrible, 35% think it has been fair and 17% think it has been good or excellent:

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:59 in Opinion polls | Permalink | Comments (96)

David Cameron announces three policy changes to encourage enterprise

In his interview with Andrew Marr yesterday, David Cameron touched on new policies he was announcing to encourage enterprise and those aspiring to start businesses.

Here are the measures he is proposing:

Ending restrictions on people starting a business in social housing, to enable social tenants to become entrepreneurs;
Increasing the statutory threshold over which the Government can petition to make a business insolvent, in order to stop the current practice of pursuing businesses over small amounts of unpaid taxes and pushing them into bankruptcy;
Reducing the number of forms needed to register a new business - moving towards a ‘one-click’ registration model - with the aim of making Britain the fastest place in the world to start a business.

Continue reading "David Cameron announces three policy changes to encourage enterprise" »

Posted at 07:51 in Economic policy | Permalink | Comments (48)

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Tories turn up the volume on immigration

Today's General Election Brief covers Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

It has been done carefully but the Tories are talking about immigration again. The volume is a fraction of that which immigration received under Michael Howard but there is definitely more attitude from the Tories on the topic. Yesterday we had Chris Grayling's announcement of a battery of measures that would deal with the weakest link in the current immigration system; the student visa system. Today David Cameron told Andrew Marr that he wanted to cut immigration to "tens of thousands". In the graph below from Fraser Nelson we can see the significance of that pledge if it was honoured:

The Tories have announced three other policies in recent days that should encourage the Tory base. On Friday there was the pledge to give headteachers more powers to sack failing teachers. Overnight there was the well-received commitment to provide scholarships to the children of servicemen killed in action. This morning Cameron announced measures to help small businesses.

The events in Northern Ireland may be good for the Tories if the General Election is close. The troubles of Peter Robinson and the Democratic Unionist Party could benefit the Northern Ireland alliance of the UUP and Conservatives. I wrote about this earlier. Ten seats is the upper limit of possibilities but five or six seats is now very possible (potentially giving Cameron more MPs in NI than in Scotland).

Another bad weekend for "Shambles" Brown. Congratulations to Iain Dale for publishing Peter Watt's insidery account of the "shambles" of Brown's Downing Street operation and of the aborted £1.5 million plan for a honeymoon election in 2007. Watch the Sky News report.

Alistair Darling spoke the truth about public spending. David Cameron told Andrew Marr that the Chancellor's interview for the Saturday Times was an important moment and it was. Darling warned that "The next spending review will be the toughest we have had for 20 years." He told the truth and the fact that he said it shows he's no longer under Brown's thumb.

No big movement in the polls following the SnowStorm plot. It's only one poll but ICM's survey for The Sunday Telegraph suggested the Tory lead is stable at about 10%. The ICM numbers are unusually almost identical to the ConHome Poll of Polls; 40/30/17.4.

Tim Montgomerie

> Thursday's General Election Brief.

Posted at 18:45 in General Election Brief, Immigration and asylum | Permalink | Comments (65)

The Conservatives and Unionists may hold up to ten seats in Northern Ireland after the General Election

On Radio 4's The World This Weekend, former Northern Ireland First Minister David Trimble and now Tory peer has said that it is increasingly unlikely that Peter Robinson will survive the week as Stormont's most senior politician. He noted that he had not receiving the backing of any of his senior Democratic Unionist Party colleagues. If there are fresh elections for the NI Assembly Baron Trimble predicted that Conservatives and Unionists could emerge as the leading party. The DUP is almost certain not to agree to the devolution of policing and that, alongside the turmoil in the DUP could lead to fresh elections or direct rule on a temporary basis.

It is possible that the events in Northern Ireland could have a major impact on the outcome of the UK General Election. The serious tensions in the DUP could produce defections to the new Conservative and Unionist alliance and/or aid the prospects of our candidates in the province. David Cameron is a big supporter of the alliance and has promised to campaign for Tory and Unionist candidates during the General Election campaign. Last April the Conservative leader said that he wanted "MPs from Northern Ireland serving in a Conservative Government at Westminster."

Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson spends huge amounts of time across the Irish Sea building the alliance. I happen to know he's been in Belfast for four of the last six days (unlike Shaun Woodward who spent a lot of time in London, shoring up support for Gordon Brown).

The investment that Cameron and Paterson have put into building relations with the UUP may turn out to be much more than a principled commitment to the integrity of the United Kingdom. Ten seats would be at the upper end of possibilities but the investment may pay big political dividends on polling day.

Tim Montgomerie

The precarious nature of the situation in Northern Ireland was illustrated horrifically on Friday with the attempted murder of a policeman by a dissident nationalist terror group. Constable Peadar Heffron remains critically ill and my thoughts and prayers are with him.

Posted at 14:10 in Northern Ireland | Permalink | Comments (38)

Cameron tells Marr that he wants net immigration cut to the "tens of thousands"

Highlights, not verbatim, from David Cameron's interview with Andrew Marr.

David Cameron insisted the Tories are not a one man team after Andrew Marr asked him about the very "I" focused poster launch. The Conservative leader said that one of the things that he is most proud of is the strong team he has built. He highlighted the fact he had brought back Ken Clarke and William Hague on to the frontbench.
He refused to be drawn on whether he was a radical in the Thatcherite tradition or more of a manager. I'm a modern, compassionate Conservative, he said, but the shake up he planned would be radical. "Responsibility" is my watchword. We need "a revolution in responsibility".
He said that the state had gone too far in terms of legislative activism, IT databases, ID cards, and political bureaucracy. The state needs to be pulled back and Conservatives would start cutting the deficit earlier than Labour. We are not the "old Tories" of the 1980s and we are not going back. I have not changed the Conservative Party as a wheeze to get elected. One of the big changes is our absolute and non-negotiable support for the NHS.
Cameron praised Alistair Darling for yesterday's Times interview in which he accepted that there must be spending cuts. He said the Chancellor's intervention was an important moment in politics.
Signalling again that the Tories' emergency budget - should they win office - might involve significant corporation tax reform, Mr Cameron said that the emergency budget would be about growth.
He announced some measures for small businesses including action to make it easier to start a small business and deregulation that would allow tenants of social landlords to run businesses from their homes.
Mr Cameron said he did not support a population of 70 million. Net immigration had been 200,000 in recent years, he said, and Conservatives wanted to cut that to the levels of the 1990s, ie "tens of thousands" rather than hundreds of thousands. The immigration cap would be fixed each year, in accordance with Britain's economic needs. [Yesterday, Chris Grayling announced a crackdown on the student visa system.]
He said he was a big supporter of the BBC and of the licence fee. He appeared to reject a proposal from Greg Dyke that the licence fee be abolished and the Corporation become funded from general taxation. On balance, he said, there were dangers of it looking like state control. He promised to loosen up the rules to help commercial broadcasters compete with the "dominant" BBC.
Near the end of the interview he noted that he'd cut Tory debts from £23m to £5m. That, I hope, is a taste of what I'll achieve in Britain, he concluded.

After the interview was over, sat on the sofa with Chris Evans ('the new Wogan'), the Tory leader won some extra street cred with the revelation that the two used to play football together on Wednesday afternoons. Evans was a goalkeeper and Cameron an opposing striker. The new Radio 2 breakfast presenter said the Conservative leader had been pretty good.