Bournemouth West
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 13961 (39.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 11353 (31.9%)
Labour: 8245 (23.2%)
Other: 2028 (5.7%)
Majority: 2608 (7.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14057 (41.4%)
Labour: 7824 (23.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10026 (29.6%)
UKIP: 2017 (5.9%)
Majority: 4031 (11.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14417 (42.8%)
Labour: 9699 (28.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8468 (25.2%)
UKIP: 1064 (3.2%)
Majority: 4718 (14%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17115 (41.7%)
Labour: 10093 (24.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11405 (27.8%)
Referendum: 1910 (4.7%)
Other: 549 (1.3%)
Majority: 5710 (13.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Sir John Butterfill(Con) born 1941, Kingston upon Thames. Educated at Caterham School and the College of Estate Management. Chartered surveyor and former managing director. Contested London South East Inner in 1979 European Elections. Contested 1981 Croydon North-West by-election. First elected as MP for Bournemouth West in 1983. Apart from a period as PPS to Cecil Parkinson and Brian Mawhinney he haas remained a backbencher throughout his career and was considered as a potential candidate for Speaker in 2000 before withdrawing to endorse Sir Young George. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Conor Burns (Conservative) Educated at Southampton University. Former Southampton councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2001, 2005.
Sharon Carr-Brown (Labour)
Alasdair Murray (Liberal Democrat) Educated at King Edward VI School Southampton and Oxford University. Director of CentreForum.
Philip Glover (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89521
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 18.9%
Over 60: 25.8%
Born outside UK: 7.4%
White: 97%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 70.3%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 8.5%
Graduates 16-74: 15.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68.5%
Social Housing: 13.7% (Council: 9.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.3%
If the Tories had not lost Eastleigh in the by-election to the Lib Dems I suspect that Labour would have challenged for the seat in 1997 and the Lib Dems could well now be down in third place there. Remember that before the mid 1980s Eastleigh always had a large Labour group rather than a Liberal group and indeed Labour had a majority on the old Eastleigh council before the 1972 local government reforms. Also notice that Labour were less than 5,000 behind the Lib Dems in the 1997 election, nearly taking second place ahead of the Tories.
As for Bournemouth, I agree that the Tories will probably face some tougher contests in years or decades to come so long as the Lib Dem vote holds up. The area should be ok for another decade though.
“I doubt Stephen Milligan would have lost in 1997 had he still been around to defend Eastleigh. Though I wonder if it would have remained a safe Tory seat or succumbed in the way that Solihull or Westmorland has done since then. ”
Hmm.
But if he had survived what happened in 1994, I think this could have been a Solihull in 1997.
Sorry, that was a bit below the belt. Just got back in from the pub.
Hell, you had a long Halloween session, Joe!
It was a bit, but nothing exciting…
I’d forgotten it was Halloween actually.
I hope you had a good evening Tim.
Interesting, actually – Fair Trade wine tasting. One or two of them were good but at least three of the wines were absolutely horrible!
Lib Dem candidate for Bournemouth West is Alasdair Murray
The new MP has been announced.
We look forward to your win Alasdair.
“The new MP has been announced.
We look forward to your win Alasdair.”
I think Lennie might be a bit premature with that statement.
Although from what I have seen on the ground it could be quite possible that the Tories and Lib Dems end up swapping the seats of Mid Dorset and Bournemouth West.
That post is rather arrogant and presumptious “Lib Dem Lennie” – I’m not saying its impossible the Lib Dems could win here, although I would have thought a local candidate like Cllr Claire Smith may have had more chance.
The picture of Alasdair Murray doesn’t seem to download.
Yes, amazing Alasdairs picture does not load.
C’Mon, get your act together chaps.
Can we have some odds on this one please, Shadsy ?